There is more traffic today, on legitimate web-sites like CBSSports.com and otherwise, that the Mountain West Conference and Conference USA are moving toward a full and formal merger. The source says that there is some urgency in the talks in the belief that there will be more defections.
Right now, the main concern is whether or not Air Force and Navy will join the Big East. Right now, the Big East is slated to have 10 football schools in 2013. Adding the two service academies will bring the slate to 12, assuming that Rutgers and UConn remain in the fold. And that is the concern at this point. Will the ACC be the first to expand to 16 and add Rutgers and UConn? That would complete the New York area Triangle and put the ACC in control of the largest TV market in the country. Plus Louisville and Cincinnati remain as Big 12 contenders, especially if the Big 12 has more defections. Therefore, the college football landscape is not stable at all. What strategy could the Mountain West and Conference USA pursue at this time?
Stand pat and wait for the Big East to implode. What is the benefit in doing this? If the Big East implodes, the august conferences could welcome back old members with open arms. Who in the classic Big East would be left? Without UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Rutgers...after Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia have already left...would be South Florida. Therefore, if the Big East implodes, then the MWC could kill the fatted calf for Boise State and San Diego State and welcomed back. Conference USA could have a 13 team conference by welcoming back Houston, SMU and Central Florida with their new odd step brother South Florida.
If they come to the reality that the Big East Football conference can remain together even without UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Rutgers. Can the Big East continue with only Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, SMU, South Florida and San Diego State? If they get Air Force and Navy as well, they could. But they may decided to work up to 12 again and who would they be able to get? Probably not BYU and Notre Dame. More likely they would make moves for Tulsa, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Fresno State, Nevada or even Hawaii. The eastern schools would be invited for all sports and the western schools only for football. The only trouble is that for football, the Big East would have a conference that stretches the entire length of the USA. Maybe not Hawaii nor East Carolina, but you get the picture.
Right now, if nothing changes, a CUSA/MWC merger would bring 17 teams together for football. But nothing is going to remain unchanged. When the merger is needed or takes place in 2013, only 13 teams may be involved. That football conference will be a realistic size in numbers of members. But it may not be a realistic size when considering geography. Don't be surprised if Hawaii independence rumors re-surface or if Hawaii becomes part of a WAC/Big Sky FBS mash-up and does not want to be part of a CUSA/MWC merger.
Now, how does this look for the Utah State Aggies? The crystal ball is a little to foggy for the Aggies right now. If it were not for the rumored merger, the Aggies would be a solid fit for the MWC. Certainly the Smith Spectrum fits well with all of the other hostile arenas in the MWC...like the Thomas and Mack Center and the Pitt. But it is difficult to see if they would be part of a football-only CUSA/MWC merger, especially if Hawaii drops out of the picture. With the lack of big markets in what appears to become of CUSA/MWC, San Jose State may be a better option for a football-only addition.
I also expect that the MWC may reverse a long-standing rule and allow San Diego State back into the fold for non-football sports and may even allow those that leave in the future to keep their non-football programs. It means, as the WAC has found out, survival. SDSU is out of place in the Big West.
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