PAC-12
1. USC
2. Oregon
3. Washington
4. Stanford
5. Utah
6. California
7. Arizona
8. Arizona State
9. UCLA
10. Oregon State
11. Colorado
12. Washington State
FBS Indy
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
WAC
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Utah State
3. Idaho
4. New Mexico State
5. San Jose State
6. Texas State
7. Texas San Antonio
Big Sky Conference
1. Montana
2. Montana State
3. Portland State
4. Southern Utah
5. Cal Poly
6. Weber State
7. Sacramento State
8. North Dakota
9. Northern Arizona
10. UC Davis
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Solution for the 5 smaller conferences...how the realignment can better work.
Conference USA and the Mountain West Conference are considering a merger. They are likely to run into the same problems that plagued the old 16-team WAC. Those were a mixture of private and public schools, a large geographic footprint and the disruption of traditional rivalries. Defection to other conferences is going to make these problems worse. Therefore, the 5 smaller conferences...Conference USA, MWC, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt should mesh together and become regionally aligned. Here is my proposal.
After 2013, here is the membership of these 5 conferences.
C-USA--9 schools.
UAB
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Mississippi
Rice (Private)
UTEP
Tulane (Private)
Tulsa (Private)
Mid America Conference 14 schools.
Akron
Ball State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Kent
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan
Massachusetts (Football Only)
Temple (Football Only)
Mountain West 8 schools
Air Force
Colorado State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
Wyoming
Hawaii (Football Only)
Sun Belt 10 schools
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
South Alabama
Troy
Western Kentucky
WAC 7 schools
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Texas San Antonio
Texas State
Utah State
Together, they currently have 48 schools. Likely Air Force could go to the Big East, but Appalachian State is moving up and looking for a home. That is still 48 and that breaks down to 4 12-school conferences. And no names need to be changed. Many people believe that the WAC will become a non-football conference. Why not help it along and then the other four conferences can simply re-align regionally and show the big conferences how to do it right. Here is how it could go...
Mountain West
Pacific Division
Idaho
Hawaii
San Jose State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
Mountain Division
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTEP
Utah State
Wyoming
Conference USA--
West Division
North Texas
Rice
Tulane
Tulsa
Texas San Antonio
Texas State
East Division
Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Lafayette
Memphis
Southern Mississippi
Sun Belt Conference
West Division
Appalachian State
UAB
Middle Tennessee
Troy
South Alabama
Western Kentucky
East Division
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Marshall
U-Mass
Temple
MAC
West Division
Ball State
Northern Illinois
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
East Division
Akron
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Kent
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Yes, the MAC ends up like it was before it took on Temple and UMass. The other conferences don't look much like they used to and the MWC looks a lot like the WAC used to. But the conferences are regionally aligned which should help reduce travel expense and build fan interest due to the maintenance of regional rivals. This may help these conferences and schools survive in spite of the money grabbing of the bigger conferences.
After 2013, here is the membership of these 5 conferences.
C-USA--9 schools.
UAB
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Mississippi
Rice (Private)
UTEP
Tulane (Private)
Tulsa (Private)
Mid America Conference 14 schools.
Akron
Ball State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Kent
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan
Massachusetts (Football Only)
Temple (Football Only)
Mountain West 8 schools
Air Force
Colorado State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
Wyoming
Hawaii (Football Only)
Sun Belt 10 schools
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
South Alabama
Troy
Western Kentucky
WAC 7 schools
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Texas San Antonio
Texas State
Utah State
Together, they currently have 48 schools. Likely Air Force could go to the Big East, but Appalachian State is moving up and looking for a home. That is still 48 and that breaks down to 4 12-school conferences. And no names need to be changed. Many people believe that the WAC will become a non-football conference. Why not help it along and then the other four conferences can simply re-align regionally and show the big conferences how to do it right. Here is how it could go...
Mountain West
Pacific Division
Idaho
Hawaii
San Jose State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
Mountain Division
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTEP
Utah State
Wyoming
Conference USA--
West Division
North Texas
Rice
Tulane
Tulsa
Texas San Antonio
Texas State
East Division
Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Lafayette
Memphis
Southern Mississippi
Sun Belt Conference
West Division
Appalachian State
UAB
Middle Tennessee
Troy
South Alabama
Western Kentucky
East Division
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Marshall
U-Mass
Temple
MAC
West Division
Ball State
Northern Illinois
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
East Division
Akron
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Kent
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Yes, the MAC ends up like it was before it took on Temple and UMass. The other conferences don't look much like they used to and the MWC looks a lot like the WAC used to. But the conferences are regionally aligned which should help reduce travel expense and build fan interest due to the maintenance of regional rivals. This may help these conferences and schools survive in spite of the money grabbing of the bigger conferences.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Football Playoff?
I am OK with a 4-team college football playoff as a step in the right direction, as long as the following concessions are made.
1. Only conference champions are selected into the playoff. This year that would have been LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Wisconsin. Given the way LSU played in the National Championship game, people may argue this point, but since Alabama could only score 6 points on LSU earlier this year, the Tigers deserved to be there even if they did not play very well once they got there. I suspect that Oklahoma State would have been the National Champion this year in this scenario.
2. The championship game is played no later than the Saturday following New Years Day. The semi-finals can be played the Saturday following Christmas. Of course, that is one of the new bowl certification requirements. Some teams will not be able to play in the Las Vegas, New Mexico, Poinsettia, Potato and other early bowls if school finishes late.
3. That four bowls be un-certified. I vote for New Mexico, Beef O' Brady's, New Orleans and BBVA Compass Bowl.
BTW--It looks like the Beef 'O' Brady's bowl will bite the dust as it has not met the 3-year rolling 25,000 attendance average requirement. This year's bowl needed to sell 26,190 tickets to this year's game to meet that requirement, and only managed to sell 20,072. The 3-year rolling average attendance in this bowl has fallen to 22,765. There is a moratorium on new bowls games, so there will be at least one fewer bowl games next season. Since we had one team with a losing record in this year's bowls, this will be a good thing.
Also--teams will have to meet academic progress requirements in 2012 in order to be bowl eligible, even if they have a winning record. But the final rules are pending. Most of the other requirements for bowls to remain active under the new rules are pending and require the bowl sponsoring organizations to undergo annual audits to avoid another Fiesta Bowl fiasco.
1. Only conference champions are selected into the playoff. This year that would have been LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Wisconsin. Given the way LSU played in the National Championship game, people may argue this point, but since Alabama could only score 6 points on LSU earlier this year, the Tigers deserved to be there even if they did not play very well once they got there. I suspect that Oklahoma State would have been the National Champion this year in this scenario.
2. The championship game is played no later than the Saturday following New Years Day. The semi-finals can be played the Saturday following Christmas. Of course, that is one of the new bowl certification requirements. Some teams will not be able to play in the Las Vegas, New Mexico, Poinsettia, Potato and other early bowls if school finishes late.
3. That four bowls be un-certified. I vote for New Mexico, Beef O' Brady's, New Orleans and BBVA Compass Bowl.
BTW--It looks like the Beef 'O' Brady's bowl will bite the dust as it has not met the 3-year rolling 25,000 attendance average requirement. This year's bowl needed to sell 26,190 tickets to this year's game to meet that requirement, and only managed to sell 20,072. The 3-year rolling average attendance in this bowl has fallen to 22,765. There is a moratorium on new bowls games, so there will be at least one fewer bowl games next season. Since we had one team with a losing record in this year's bowls, this will be a good thing.
Also--teams will have to meet academic progress requirements in 2012 in order to be bowl eligible, even if they have a winning record. But the final rules are pending. Most of the other requirements for bowls to remain active under the new rules are pending and require the bowl sponsoring organizations to undergo annual audits to avoid another Fiesta Bowl fiasco.
More about the MWC/C-USA merger and Utah State's Chances...
There is more traffic today, on legitimate web-sites like CBSSports.com and otherwise, that the Mountain West Conference and Conference USA are moving toward a full and formal merger. The source says that there is some urgency in the talks in the belief that there will be more defections.
Right now, the main concern is whether or not Air Force and Navy will join the Big East. Right now, the Big East is slated to have 10 football schools in 2013. Adding the two service academies will bring the slate to 12, assuming that Rutgers and UConn remain in the fold. And that is the concern at this point. Will the ACC be the first to expand to 16 and add Rutgers and UConn? That would complete the New York area Triangle and put the ACC in control of the largest TV market in the country. Plus Louisville and Cincinnati remain as Big 12 contenders, especially if the Big 12 has more defections. Therefore, the college football landscape is not stable at all. What strategy could the Mountain West and Conference USA pursue at this time?
Stand pat and wait for the Big East to implode. What is the benefit in doing this? If the Big East implodes, the august conferences could welcome back old members with open arms. Who in the classic Big East would be left? Without UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Rutgers...after Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia have already left...would be South Florida. Therefore, if the Big East implodes, then the MWC could kill the fatted calf for Boise State and San Diego State and welcomed back. Conference USA could have a 13 team conference by welcoming back Houston, SMU and Central Florida with their new odd step brother South Florida.
If they come to the reality that the Big East Football conference can remain together even without UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Rutgers. Can the Big East continue with only Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, SMU, South Florida and San Diego State? If they get Air Force and Navy as well, they could. But they may decided to work up to 12 again and who would they be able to get? Probably not BYU and Notre Dame. More likely they would make moves for Tulsa, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Fresno State, Nevada or even Hawaii. The eastern schools would be invited for all sports and the western schools only for football. The only trouble is that for football, the Big East would have a conference that stretches the entire length of the USA. Maybe not Hawaii nor East Carolina, but you get the picture.
Right now, if nothing changes, a CUSA/MWC merger would bring 17 teams together for football. But nothing is going to remain unchanged. When the merger is needed or takes place in 2013, only 13 teams may be involved. That football conference will be a realistic size in numbers of members. But it may not be a realistic size when considering geography. Don't be surprised if Hawaii independence rumors re-surface or if Hawaii becomes part of a WAC/Big Sky FBS mash-up and does not want to be part of a CUSA/MWC merger.
Now, how does this look for the Utah State Aggies? The crystal ball is a little to foggy for the Aggies right now. If it were not for the rumored merger, the Aggies would be a solid fit for the MWC. Certainly the Smith Spectrum fits well with all of the other hostile arenas in the MWC...like the Thomas and Mack Center and the Pitt. But it is difficult to see if they would be part of a football-only CUSA/MWC merger, especially if Hawaii drops out of the picture. With the lack of big markets in what appears to become of CUSA/MWC, San Jose State may be a better option for a football-only addition.
I also expect that the MWC may reverse a long-standing rule and allow San Diego State back into the fold for non-football sports and may even allow those that leave in the future to keep their non-football programs. It means, as the WAC has found out, survival. SDSU is out of place in the Big West.
Right now, the main concern is whether or not Air Force and Navy will join the Big East. Right now, the Big East is slated to have 10 football schools in 2013. Adding the two service academies will bring the slate to 12, assuming that Rutgers and UConn remain in the fold. And that is the concern at this point. Will the ACC be the first to expand to 16 and add Rutgers and UConn? That would complete the New York area Triangle and put the ACC in control of the largest TV market in the country. Plus Louisville and Cincinnati remain as Big 12 contenders, especially if the Big 12 has more defections. Therefore, the college football landscape is not stable at all. What strategy could the Mountain West and Conference USA pursue at this time?
Stand pat and wait for the Big East to implode. What is the benefit in doing this? If the Big East implodes, the august conferences could welcome back old members with open arms. Who in the classic Big East would be left? Without UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Rutgers...after Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia have already left...would be South Florida. Therefore, if the Big East implodes, then the MWC could kill the fatted calf for Boise State and San Diego State and welcomed back. Conference USA could have a 13 team conference by welcoming back Houston, SMU and Central Florida with their new odd step brother South Florida.
If they come to the reality that the Big East Football conference can remain together even without UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Rutgers. Can the Big East continue with only Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, SMU, South Florida and San Diego State? If they get Air Force and Navy as well, they could. But they may decided to work up to 12 again and who would they be able to get? Probably not BYU and Notre Dame. More likely they would make moves for Tulsa, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Fresno State, Nevada or even Hawaii. The eastern schools would be invited for all sports and the western schools only for football. The only trouble is that for football, the Big East would have a conference that stretches the entire length of the USA. Maybe not Hawaii nor East Carolina, but you get the picture.
Right now, if nothing changes, a CUSA/MWC merger would bring 17 teams together for football. But nothing is going to remain unchanged. When the merger is needed or takes place in 2013, only 13 teams may be involved. That football conference will be a realistic size in numbers of members. But it may not be a realistic size when considering geography. Don't be surprised if Hawaii independence rumors re-surface or if Hawaii becomes part of a WAC/Big Sky FBS mash-up and does not want to be part of a CUSA/MWC merger.
Now, how does this look for the Utah State Aggies? The crystal ball is a little to foggy for the Aggies right now. If it were not for the rumored merger, the Aggies would be a solid fit for the MWC. Certainly the Smith Spectrum fits well with all of the other hostile arenas in the MWC...like the Thomas and Mack Center and the Pitt. But it is difficult to see if they would be part of a football-only CUSA/MWC merger, especially if Hawaii drops out of the picture. With the lack of big markets in what appears to become of CUSA/MWC, San Jose State may be a better option for a football-only addition.
I also expect that the MWC may reverse a long-standing rule and allow San Diego State back into the fold for non-football sports and may even allow those that leave in the future to keep their non-football programs. It means, as the WAC has found out, survival. SDSU is out of place in the Big West.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Ranking the Excitement of the 2011-12 Bowls.
The Four-Star Bowls
1. Alamo Bowl--Baylor 67 Washington 56. No that was not Baylor beating Washington in basketball...
2. Fiesta Bowl--Oklahoma State 31 Stanford 38 OT. Luck ran out for the Cardinal in Arizona, but it was still fun to watch.
3. Rose Bowl--Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38. Ducks save their defense for the 4th quarter.
4. Sun Bowl--Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT The redemption of Jon Hayes brings a victory for the Utes.
5. Outback Bowl---Michigan State 33 Georgia 30 2OT Could have been better but overtime was a field goal kicking contest.
6. Armed Forces Bowl--BYU 24 Tulsa 21. Red Alert! A defensive battle between two traditional offensive powers.
7. New Orleans Bowl--Louisiana Lafayette 32 San Diego State 30 The Ragin' Cajun's are no longer a "LAF"-ing stock.
8. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl--Ohio 24 Utah State 23 The bowl could have been better if it had been played in warmer weather.
9. Military Bowl--Toledo 42 Air Force 41--The teams ran out of air in the 2nd half. But they kept scoring.
10. Sugar Bowl--Michigan 23 Virginia Tech 20--Not a lot of scoring, but a close game.
The Not-So-Bad 3-Star Bowls
11. Champ Sports Bowl--Florida State 18 Notre Dame 14 A tale of 2 halfs with the Seminoles coming back late.
12. Poinsettia Bowl--TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 Another tale of 2 halfs with the Frogs winning the 2nd half, easy.
13. Music City Bowl--Mississippi State 23 Wake Forest 17 Wake got close, but it was really all Bulldogs.
14. Liberty Bowl--Cincinnati 31 Vanderbilt 24 This game was tied after 3 quarters, but Cincy pulled away at the end.
15. Beef 'O' Brady Bowl--Marshall 20 Florida International 10 The game was tied until the Herd pulled away in the 4th quarter.
16. Pinstripe Bowl--Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13 It did have an emotional ending for one team.
17. Little Cesar's Bowl--Purdue 37 Western Michigan 21 The Broncos made a game of it at the end...sort of
18. Meineke Bowl--Texas A&M 33 Northwestern 22 The Wildcats almost made it interesting at the end.
19. Gator Bowl--Florida 24 Ohio State 17 Yea, it was a one score game, that ended with a field goal, a fumble and 4 consecutive punts.
20. Hawaii Bowl--Southern Mississippi 24 Nevada 17 The 2nd quarter was good, otherwise it was a 7-3 yawner.
21. Belk Bowl--NC State 31 Louisville 24 The Wolfpack almost gave this one away.
The 2-Star Bowls
22. Mobile Alabama Bowl--Northern Illinois 38 Arkansas State 20 The Red Wolves had a 13-0 lead, then it was all Huskies.
23. Holiday Bowl--Texas 21 California 10 What happened to the days when the Holiday Bowl was one of the most exciting every year?
24. Cotton Bowl--Arkansas 29 Kansas State 16 Either Arkansas deserved better or Kansas State did not belong. Probably a bit of both.
25. Chick-Fil-A Bowl--Auburn 43 Virginia 21 Auburn finally found their defense.
The 1-Star Bowls
26. Capitol One Bowl--South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13 A lot of us expected more out of the Huskers this year.
27. Insight Bowl--Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14 The most exciting part of this game was the...um...oh...yea...that part.
28. Independence Bowl--Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 All Missou.
29. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl--Illinois 20 UCLA 14 What do you call a bowl that features two fired head coaches? I call it a dud.
30. BBVA Compass Bowl--SMU 28 Pittsburgh 6 No intrigue at all.
31. Las Vegas Bowl--Boise State 56 Arizona State 14 This is the best that the MWC could do for the Broncos? No wonder they are joining the Big East.
The Turkeys
32. Ticket City Bowl--Houston 30 Penn State 14 Some say that Penn State should not have gone to a bowl game this year...well, Penn State took their advice and did not show up this bowl game.
33. Orange Bowl--West Virginia 70 Clemson 33 A blowout of this magnitude in a BCS bowl game? WVU should have been playing Boise State.
34. BCS Championship Game--Alabama 21 LSU 0 Only people wearing Crimson and Hounds-tooth could appreciate this game.
35. New Mexico Bowl--Temple 37 Wyoming 15 Let's put the New Mexico Bowl out of our misery and not play it next year.
1. Alamo Bowl--Baylor 67 Washington 56. No that was not Baylor beating Washington in basketball...
2. Fiesta Bowl--Oklahoma State 31 Stanford 38 OT. Luck ran out for the Cardinal in Arizona, but it was still fun to watch.
3. Rose Bowl--Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38. Ducks save their defense for the 4th quarter.
4. Sun Bowl--Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT The redemption of Jon Hayes brings a victory for the Utes.
5. Outback Bowl---Michigan State 33 Georgia 30 2OT Could have been better but overtime was a field goal kicking contest.
6. Armed Forces Bowl--BYU 24 Tulsa 21. Red Alert! A defensive battle between two traditional offensive powers.
7. New Orleans Bowl--Louisiana Lafayette 32 San Diego State 30 The Ragin' Cajun's are no longer a "LAF"-ing stock.
8. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl--Ohio 24 Utah State 23 The bowl could have been better if it had been played in warmer weather.
9. Military Bowl--Toledo 42 Air Force 41--The teams ran out of air in the 2nd half. But they kept scoring.
10. Sugar Bowl--Michigan 23 Virginia Tech 20--Not a lot of scoring, but a close game.
The Not-So-Bad 3-Star Bowls
11. Champ Sports Bowl--Florida State 18 Notre Dame 14 A tale of 2 halfs with the Seminoles coming back late.
12. Poinsettia Bowl--TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 Another tale of 2 halfs with the Frogs winning the 2nd half, easy.
13. Music City Bowl--Mississippi State 23 Wake Forest 17 Wake got close, but it was really all Bulldogs.
14. Liberty Bowl--Cincinnati 31 Vanderbilt 24 This game was tied after 3 quarters, but Cincy pulled away at the end.
15. Beef 'O' Brady Bowl--Marshall 20 Florida International 10 The game was tied until the Herd pulled away in the 4th quarter.
16. Pinstripe Bowl--Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13 It did have an emotional ending for one team.
17. Little Cesar's Bowl--Purdue 37 Western Michigan 21 The Broncos made a game of it at the end...sort of
18. Meineke Bowl--Texas A&M 33 Northwestern 22 The Wildcats almost made it interesting at the end.
19. Gator Bowl--Florida 24 Ohio State 17 Yea, it was a one score game, that ended with a field goal, a fumble and 4 consecutive punts.
20. Hawaii Bowl--Southern Mississippi 24 Nevada 17 The 2nd quarter was good, otherwise it was a 7-3 yawner.
21. Belk Bowl--NC State 31 Louisville 24 The Wolfpack almost gave this one away.
The 2-Star Bowls
22. Mobile Alabama Bowl--Northern Illinois 38 Arkansas State 20 The Red Wolves had a 13-0 lead, then it was all Huskies.
23. Holiday Bowl--Texas 21 California 10 What happened to the days when the Holiday Bowl was one of the most exciting every year?
24. Cotton Bowl--Arkansas 29 Kansas State 16 Either Arkansas deserved better or Kansas State did not belong. Probably a bit of both.
25. Chick-Fil-A Bowl--Auburn 43 Virginia 21 Auburn finally found their defense.
The 1-Star Bowls
26. Capitol One Bowl--South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13 A lot of us expected more out of the Huskers this year.
27. Insight Bowl--Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14 The most exciting part of this game was the...um...oh...yea...that part.
28. Independence Bowl--Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 All Missou.
29. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl--Illinois 20 UCLA 14 What do you call a bowl that features two fired head coaches? I call it a dud.
30. BBVA Compass Bowl--SMU 28 Pittsburgh 6 No intrigue at all.
31. Las Vegas Bowl--Boise State 56 Arizona State 14 This is the best that the MWC could do for the Broncos? No wonder they are joining the Big East.
The Turkeys
32. Ticket City Bowl--Houston 30 Penn State 14 Some say that Penn State should not have gone to a bowl game this year...well, Penn State took their advice and did not show up this bowl game.
33. Orange Bowl--West Virginia 70 Clemson 33 A blowout of this magnitude in a BCS bowl game? WVU should have been playing Boise State.
34. BCS Championship Game--Alabama 21 LSU 0 Only people wearing Crimson and Hounds-tooth could appreciate this game.
35. New Mexico Bowl--Temple 37 Wyoming 15 Let's put the New Mexico Bowl out of our misery and not play it next year.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Will Boise State See a Drop Off?
I said in my own self-rebuttal of my 2012 predictions that sooner or later Boise State will have to deal with an 8-win season and 2012 might be the year for it. I have nothing really to back up my premise outside of the fact that all of their stud players have exhausted their eligibility and the law of averages.
Bobby Bowden, who in 2001 was taking a 7-4 Florida State team to the Gator Bowl said the following, "You ain't gonna win 10 games every year. We've already done the impossible! (win 10 or more games 14 years in a row)...You think anybody will ever do that again?! Everybody expects that every year and gosh, it just don't work that way!"
From 1987 to 2000, Florida State won at least 10 games every season and finished in the to 10 every year. That is exceptionally impressive. And as he put it, impossible.
Boise State has been on a similar tear. For the 4th time since 2006, Boise State will finish in the top 10. Only twice since 2000 has Boise State finished with fewer than 10 wins. The first was 2001 when Dan Hawkins took over for the departed to Arizona State Dirk Koetter. The second was the 9-win 2005 season when BSU began the season 0-2 in Hawkins final year in Boise.
Boise's run of 10 win seasons has to end sometime. Sometime, you really will rebuild and retool. It doesn't mean that the Boise program is less powerful and a less desirable place to play football. It's just the law of averages. Eventually, it will catch up with Boise State.
In terms of winning percentage, Boise State in now 3rd in the Football Bowl Subdivision (D-IA) and that includes their time in the lower divisions. Their record is 378-145-2 for .72190. Not counting those years would be like BYU only counting their record since 1972 or Florida State leaving out their record in the 1960's. Since moving to the higher division, BSU is an impressive 105-34 for .75540. Extrapolating that win percentage to a 12-game season, and you have 8-wins. That is what Boise State has averaged since 1996. But what about bowl games. That winning percentage is actually 9.8 wins per season.
That is not bad. In fact, as I have said, Boise State's overall winning percentage is .72190. That is third behind Michigan and Notre Dame. Michigan's .731414 translates to 9.5 wins per season. That does not mean that Michigan fans should expect their time to have a 10-win season every other year. It means that some years you have 12 wins and some years you have 7. Some years you stomp the likes of Wisconsin and Penn State and some years you lose at home to Appalachian State. But Michigan still manages to attract almost 110,000 fans to every game.
Eight wins per season is a great football program. That winning percentage is .61500. That's the University of Washington, #19 on the list. Just behind Florida and just ahead of Virginia Tech. Winning 8 games per season is good company.
7 wins per season isn't bad either. That is .53846. That is where your BSU arch rival Nevada sits. They are #62 on the list, two places lower than the median college football program, Missouri sits. The majority of college football is between 5 wins and 7 wins per season.
Boise State has had a lot of good seasons lately. They have beaten the likes of Georgia and Oklahoma and Oregon regularly. But even the best team in the history of college football has a bad year. Ask Florida State fans about their 6-6 2006 campaign...and then ask them how it felt to have 4 of those 6 wins vacated after talking to them about the 14 consecutive seasons in the to 10.
It is a difficult thing to win 10 games in one football season and to do that year after year. So if averages catch up to Boise State, it is no reason to bite anyone's head off. It will be a long time before Boise's arch rival Nevada catches them in overall winning percentage. It will be a long time before even Washington does. Even Bobby Bowden's 14-consecutive 10-wins seasons only brings them to #12.
Bobby Bowden, who in 2001 was taking a 7-4 Florida State team to the Gator Bowl said the following, "You ain't gonna win 10 games every year. We've already done the impossible! (win 10 or more games 14 years in a row)...You think anybody will ever do that again?! Everybody expects that every year and gosh, it just don't work that way!"
From 1987 to 2000, Florida State won at least 10 games every season and finished in the to 10 every year. That is exceptionally impressive. And as he put it, impossible.
Boise State has been on a similar tear. For the 4th time since 2006, Boise State will finish in the top 10. Only twice since 2000 has Boise State finished with fewer than 10 wins. The first was 2001 when Dan Hawkins took over for the departed to Arizona State Dirk Koetter. The second was the 9-win 2005 season when BSU began the season 0-2 in Hawkins final year in Boise.
Boise's run of 10 win seasons has to end sometime. Sometime, you really will rebuild and retool. It doesn't mean that the Boise program is less powerful and a less desirable place to play football. It's just the law of averages. Eventually, it will catch up with Boise State.
In terms of winning percentage, Boise State in now 3rd in the Football Bowl Subdivision (D-IA) and that includes their time in the lower divisions. Their record is 378-145-2 for .72190. Not counting those years would be like BYU only counting their record since 1972 or Florida State leaving out their record in the 1960's. Since moving to the higher division, BSU is an impressive 105-34 for .75540. Extrapolating that win percentage to a 12-game season, and you have 8-wins. That is what Boise State has averaged since 1996. But what about bowl games. That winning percentage is actually 9.8 wins per season.
That is not bad. In fact, as I have said, Boise State's overall winning percentage is .72190. That is third behind Michigan and Notre Dame. Michigan's .731414 translates to 9.5 wins per season. That does not mean that Michigan fans should expect their time to have a 10-win season every other year. It means that some years you have 12 wins and some years you have 7. Some years you stomp the likes of Wisconsin and Penn State and some years you lose at home to Appalachian State. But Michigan still manages to attract almost 110,000 fans to every game.
Eight wins per season is a great football program. That winning percentage is .61500. That's the University of Washington, #19 on the list. Just behind Florida and just ahead of Virginia Tech. Winning 8 games per season is good company.
7 wins per season isn't bad either. That is .53846. That is where your BSU arch rival Nevada sits. They are #62 on the list, two places lower than the median college football program, Missouri sits. The majority of college football is between 5 wins and 7 wins per season.
Boise State has had a lot of good seasons lately. They have beaten the likes of Georgia and Oklahoma and Oregon regularly. But even the best team in the history of college football has a bad year. Ask Florida State fans about their 6-6 2006 campaign...and then ask them how it felt to have 4 of those 6 wins vacated after talking to them about the 14 consecutive seasons in the to 10.
It is a difficult thing to win 10 games in one football season and to do that year after year. So if averages catch up to Boise State, it is no reason to bite anyone's head off. It will be a long time before Boise's arch rival Nevada catches them in overall winning percentage. It will be a long time before even Washington does. Even Bobby Bowden's 14-consecutive 10-wins seasons only brings them to #12.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Utah Utes 2012 Schedule Complete...
Thursday, August 30: Northern Colorado at Utah
Saturday, September 8: Utah at Utah State
Saturday, September 15: BYU at Utah
Saturday, September 22: Utah at Arizona State
Thursday, October 4: USC at Utah
Saturday, October 13: Utah at UCLA
Saturday, October 20: Utah at Oregon State
Saturday, October 27: California at Utah
Saturday, November 3: Washington State at Utah
Saturday, November 10: Utah at Washington
Saturday, November 17: Arizona at Utah
Friday, November 23: Utah at Colorado
Friday, November 30: Pac-12 Championship
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Seriousness of 2012 prediction.
Here is the reality of my 2012 predictions. I do not drink, but I have been under the weather all weekend and the predictions were spur of the moment and half tonge-in-cheek. As someone once said, if you have to tell everyone that it was a joke, it was not funny. So my bad.
1. I predicted that that Jazz would continue to struggle this season and that they would trade for some veteran leadership. The problem with that prediction is who would be so unhappy with their situation to want to come to Utah? And this would only work if the Jazz have a chance at making the playoffs. We will see how the long season wears on the NBA. The Jazz will probably not be in playoff range. Giving up a lottery pick for a veteran would mean that it would have to be someone with more than just a few years left. Who fits that bill right now?
2. 2012 will be the last season that BYU and Utah meet on the gridiron. Yes, there is the Big 10-Pac 12 agreement. But this agreement also puts Standford/Notre Dame and USC/Notre Dame at risk as well as BYU/Utah. Do Stanford and USC give up playing Notre Dame to play a game against a nameless Big 10 school? I don't believe for a minute that they would. I expect that the PAC-12 may therefore rethink the 9-game conference schedule which may save the BYU/Utah series.
3. Utah state going to the MWC...Actually, I feel pretty good about this happening, but there may still be a full and formal MWC/C-USA merger.
4. Utah State winning the WAC in 2012? It could happen, but Sonny Dykes has a pretty good thing going on in Rushton, and they took TCU to the edge in the Poinsettia Bowl. I expect this will be a pretty good battle.
5. The Red Rocks winning the PAC-12? The most sound, sane and serious prediction I made.
6. SUU surprising in the Big Sky next year? Brad Sorensen is returning, but Austin Minifee is not. The T-Birds benefited for good special teams play in 2011. The key to SUU surprising in the Big Sky will be defense and special teams. The defense will need to play with more consistency in 2011...more like they did against UNLV and better than they did in the three games that followed...to be a force in the Big Sky Conference in 2012.
7. BYU going 11-1 with the only loss to Utah? This was a jab a Cougar fans and a jab at Boise State. BYU will need to go 12-0 to make the BCS, that point is not arguable. BYU will not be the favorite in 4 games...@ Utah, @ Boise State, @ Notre Dame and @ Georgia Tech. But Utah will be breaking in a new offense, again. Boise State is rebuilding. Notre Dame will still be inconsistent. Georgia Tech will be the toughest game on BYU's schedule and if the Cougars lose one regular season game, it is more likely to be Ga Tech than it will be to anyone else.
Boise State fans will face the reality of an 8-4 season sooner or later and 2012 may be the year for it. In 2012 Boise has @ Michigan State, BYU, @ Southern Mississippi and @ Wyoming...who did well in 2012 and all will be returning star power. Yes, you laugh about this now. But I would not want to take an inexperienced team to open the season in East Lansing, Michigan. If I was a head coach, that would keep me up at night. Perhaps the Broncos go 11-1 or 12-0 again. But this does not appear to be the year for it. Boise has to hope that their farm system works and that they stay healthy.
8. Utah going 5-7. It could happen. Utah plays the same PAC-12 schedule they did in 2011. If they lose to the same teams, that is 7-5 again at best. The other teams in the PAC-12 that they beat will be improved, that is the nature of a BCS conference. And BYU will not commit 7 turnovers and if this is the last BYU/Utah game, BYU will be extra motivated. Utah will have to improve their play, especially at quarterback and on special teams to improve on their 2011 results.
9. 4-7 at Weber State...I feel that this is an honest assessment of where WSU stands at this time. I am lowering my expectations for 2012. Let's see if the 'Cats can beat them.
10. Lillard to the Jazz? If Lillard does not stay at WSU in 2012 and enter the NBA draft, he appears to be a second-round pick. Seeing how Lillard plays against the big boys...St. Mary's, California, BYU...that would be a steal for anyone, including the Jazz.
1. I predicted that that Jazz would continue to struggle this season and that they would trade for some veteran leadership. The problem with that prediction is who would be so unhappy with their situation to want to come to Utah? And this would only work if the Jazz have a chance at making the playoffs. We will see how the long season wears on the NBA. The Jazz will probably not be in playoff range. Giving up a lottery pick for a veteran would mean that it would have to be someone with more than just a few years left. Who fits that bill right now?
2. 2012 will be the last season that BYU and Utah meet on the gridiron. Yes, there is the Big 10-Pac 12 agreement. But this agreement also puts Standford/Notre Dame and USC/Notre Dame at risk as well as BYU/Utah. Do Stanford and USC give up playing Notre Dame to play a game against a nameless Big 10 school? I don't believe for a minute that they would. I expect that the PAC-12 may therefore rethink the 9-game conference schedule which may save the BYU/Utah series.
3. Utah state going to the MWC...Actually, I feel pretty good about this happening, but there may still be a full and formal MWC/C-USA merger.
4. Utah State winning the WAC in 2012? It could happen, but Sonny Dykes has a pretty good thing going on in Rushton, and they took TCU to the edge in the Poinsettia Bowl. I expect this will be a pretty good battle.
5. The Red Rocks winning the PAC-12? The most sound, sane and serious prediction I made.
6. SUU surprising in the Big Sky next year? Brad Sorensen is returning, but Austin Minifee is not. The T-Birds benefited for good special teams play in 2011. The key to SUU surprising in the Big Sky will be defense and special teams. The defense will need to play with more consistency in 2011...more like they did against UNLV and better than they did in the three games that followed...to be a force in the Big Sky Conference in 2012.
7. BYU going 11-1 with the only loss to Utah? This was a jab a Cougar fans and a jab at Boise State. BYU will need to go 12-0 to make the BCS, that point is not arguable. BYU will not be the favorite in 4 games...@ Utah, @ Boise State, @ Notre Dame and @ Georgia Tech. But Utah will be breaking in a new offense, again. Boise State is rebuilding. Notre Dame will still be inconsistent. Georgia Tech will be the toughest game on BYU's schedule and if the Cougars lose one regular season game, it is more likely to be Ga Tech than it will be to anyone else.
Boise State fans will face the reality of an 8-4 season sooner or later and 2012 may be the year for it. In 2012 Boise has @ Michigan State, BYU, @ Southern Mississippi and @ Wyoming...who did well in 2012 and all will be returning star power. Yes, you laugh about this now. But I would not want to take an inexperienced team to open the season in East Lansing, Michigan. If I was a head coach, that would keep me up at night. Perhaps the Broncos go 11-1 or 12-0 again. But this does not appear to be the year for it. Boise has to hope that their farm system works and that they stay healthy.
8. Utah going 5-7. It could happen. Utah plays the same PAC-12 schedule they did in 2011. If they lose to the same teams, that is 7-5 again at best. The other teams in the PAC-12 that they beat will be improved, that is the nature of a BCS conference. And BYU will not commit 7 turnovers and if this is the last BYU/Utah game, BYU will be extra motivated. Utah will have to improve their play, especially at quarterback and on special teams to improve on their 2011 results.
9. 4-7 at Weber State...I feel that this is an honest assessment of where WSU stands at this time. I am lowering my expectations for 2012. Let's see if the 'Cats can beat them.
10. Lillard to the Jazz? If Lillard does not stay at WSU in 2012 and enter the NBA draft, he appears to be a second-round pick. Seeing how Lillard plays against the big boys...St. Mary's, California, BYU...that would be a steal for anyone, including the Jazz.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
College Football Season in Review 2011
BYU Cougars
Final Record...10-3
High Point...Red Alert. Riley Nelson (Sorry, I've been sick) fakes the spike and with 11 seconds remaining hits Cody Hoffman in the end zone for the go ahead score in the Armed Forces Bowl against Tulsa.
Low Point...Free Turnovers. The Utah defense forces the Cougars to commit 7 turnovers which leads to a 54-10 blowout of the Utes.
Turning Point of the Season...Marcus Matthews pulls in a tipped pass from Riley Nelson in the waning moments of a game against Utah State leading BYU to a 27-24 victory over the Aggies.
Offensive MVP...WR Cody Hoffman.
Defensive MVP...LB Kyle Van Noy
Utah Utes
Final Record...8-5, 4-5 PAC-12
High Point...Sun Bowl. After being down 14 points late in the 4th quarter, Jon Hays and John White IV lead the Utes to a come-from-behind victory.
Low Point...More Free Turnovers. In their second PAC-12 home game, the Utes commit 5 turnovers and hand Arizona State an easy victory.
Turning Point of the Season...The Utes hold Pittsburgh to just 120 total yards on the road to gain a 26-14 victory and to keep their bowl hopes alive.
Offensive MVP...RB John White IV
Defensive MVP...DL Derrick Shelby
Utah State Aggies...
Final Record...7-6, 5-2 WAC
High Point...Home Finale. The Aggies continue their win streak and become bowl eligible after defeating the Nevada Wolfpack 21-27.
Low Point...Again?! Against eventual WAC champion Louisiana Tech, the Aggies give up a 17-14 lead to lose 24-17 to Louisiana Tech. This was USU's 5th loss and in all five of those losses at that point of the season, the Aggies had given up a 4th quarter lead.
Turning Point...Hawaii. Against the Warriors, the Aggies were the team that had the late-game heriocs. With 14 seconds remaining, Robert Turbin scored from one yard out. This was the beginning of a 5-game winning streak to end the regular season.
Offensive MVP...RB Robert Turbin, WAC offensive player of the year.
Defensive MVP...LB Bobby Wagner
Weber State Wildcats...
Final Record...5-6, 5-3 Big Sky Conference
High Point...Sending off Ron McBride as a winner. In the season finale in Portland, the 'Cats score the final 21 points of the game to ensure that Ron McBride is a winner in his last-ever game.
Low Point...Streak. After taking a lead into the locker room at half time, the 'Cats watch Montana score 24 unanswered points in the second half. McBride would tender his retirement later that week.
Turning Point...Fumble. Deep in EWU territory with less than a minute remaining, Mike Hoke commits his first turnover of the season. Weber would lose 27-21.
Offensive MVP...RB CJ Tuckett
Defensive MVP...LB Nick Webb
Southern Utah Thuderbirds...
Final Record...6-5, 1-4 Great West Conference
High Point...Vegas. Even though a 41-16 win against UNLV doesn't seem like an accomplishment to most FBS football fans, it is rare that a good FCS team can beat a bad FBS team. When the lower division teams wins so big, it is something to hoot about.
Low Point...Poly. After taking a 27-24 lead late in the 4th quarter, the Cal Poly Mustangs would march down the field and steal a 31-27 victory. The Mustangs would only need to attempt two passes on the final drive. And they, the Mustangs, score quickly, even with their bread and butter pistol running attack.
Turning Point...Weber. After a 3-game losing streak, the Thunderbirds would use special teams to get back on track against future Big Sky Conference rival.
Offensive MVP...QB Brad Sorensen, GWFC offensive player of the year.
Defensive MVP...DT Cody Larsen
Final Record...10-3
High Point...Red Alert. Riley Nelson (Sorry, I've been sick) fakes the spike and with 11 seconds remaining hits Cody Hoffman in the end zone for the go ahead score in the Armed Forces Bowl against Tulsa.
Low Point...Free Turnovers. The Utah defense forces the Cougars to commit 7 turnovers which leads to a 54-10 blowout of the Utes.
Turning Point of the Season...Marcus Matthews pulls in a tipped pass from Riley Nelson in the waning moments of a game against Utah State leading BYU to a 27-24 victory over the Aggies.
Offensive MVP...WR Cody Hoffman.
Defensive MVP...LB Kyle Van Noy
Utah Utes
Final Record...8-5, 4-5 PAC-12
High Point...Sun Bowl. After being down 14 points late in the 4th quarter, Jon Hays and John White IV lead the Utes to a come-from-behind victory.
Low Point...More Free Turnovers. In their second PAC-12 home game, the Utes commit 5 turnovers and hand Arizona State an easy victory.
Turning Point of the Season...The Utes hold Pittsburgh to just 120 total yards on the road to gain a 26-14 victory and to keep their bowl hopes alive.
Offensive MVP...RB John White IV
Defensive MVP...DL Derrick Shelby
Utah State Aggies...
Final Record...7-6, 5-2 WAC
High Point...Home Finale. The Aggies continue their win streak and become bowl eligible after defeating the Nevada Wolfpack 21-27.
Low Point...Again?! Against eventual WAC champion Louisiana Tech, the Aggies give up a 17-14 lead to lose 24-17 to Louisiana Tech. This was USU's 5th loss and in all five of those losses at that point of the season, the Aggies had given up a 4th quarter lead.
Turning Point...Hawaii. Against the Warriors, the Aggies were the team that had the late-game heriocs. With 14 seconds remaining, Robert Turbin scored from one yard out. This was the beginning of a 5-game winning streak to end the regular season.
Offensive MVP...RB Robert Turbin, WAC offensive player of the year.
Defensive MVP...LB Bobby Wagner
Weber State Wildcats...
Final Record...5-6, 5-3 Big Sky Conference
High Point...Sending off Ron McBride as a winner. In the season finale in Portland, the 'Cats score the final 21 points of the game to ensure that Ron McBride is a winner in his last-ever game.
Low Point...Streak. After taking a lead into the locker room at half time, the 'Cats watch Montana score 24 unanswered points in the second half. McBride would tender his retirement later that week.
Turning Point...Fumble. Deep in EWU territory with less than a minute remaining, Mike Hoke commits his first turnover of the season. Weber would lose 27-21.
Offensive MVP...RB CJ Tuckett
Defensive MVP...LB Nick Webb
Southern Utah Thuderbirds...
Final Record...6-5, 1-4 Great West Conference
High Point...Vegas. Even though a 41-16 win against UNLV doesn't seem like an accomplishment to most FBS football fans, it is rare that a good FCS team can beat a bad FBS team. When the lower division teams wins so big, it is something to hoot about.
Low Point...Poly. After taking a 27-24 lead late in the 4th quarter, the Cal Poly Mustangs would march down the field and steal a 31-27 victory. The Mustangs would only need to attempt two passes on the final drive. And they, the Mustangs, score quickly, even with their bread and butter pistol running attack.
Turning Point...Weber. After a 3-game losing streak, the Thunderbirds would use special teams to get back on track against future Big Sky Conference rival.
Offensive MVP...QB Brad Sorensen, GWFC offensive player of the year.
Defensive MVP...DT Cody Larsen
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