The MWC is not expanding further...for now.

The Mountain West Conference is not going through with plans to expand to 12 at this time.  (12 for football and 11 for other sports)  I can think of three reasons why they decided not to move at this time.

1.  Utah State is very great in basketball and good in other sports, but they have struggled in football.  The MWC already has programs that fit this same profile...like UNLV and New Mexico.  This is one of the reasons the MWC finished behind the WAC in football power rankings.  Too many teams in this conference struggle for success on the gridiron, but do well in other sports.  Does the MWC need another program like UNLV, New Mexico or Wyoming?  No.  They need another Utah.  They need a school that can help the conference get BCS AQ status.  Sorry Aggie fans, but Utah State is not that school.

2.  Utah State could be a good fit for the conference, but is anyone else?  If no one from Texas wanted to come join the party, who was there that would be a good addition?  When I read that the MWC was looking at San Jose State, I figured that UTEP, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa and North Texas had all said no.  San Jose State only offers a big market.  Idaho only has good academics.  New Mexico State has neither a good sized market nor top notch academics.  Those that could have been a good balance for Utah State are not willing to join.  There were not a lot of good choices for the MWC, unless the real goal is to kill the WAC.  In the long run, would that strategy have hurt the MWC.  If you get good from top to bottom, who is going to come and play when the game is a likely loss and there is no TV money?

3.  Lack of revenue.  It is hard enough to split the meager MWC TV revenue 10 ways, and even more difficult to split the same pie 12 ways.  It will not make sense for the MWC president to approve an expansion until there is a better TV contract in place.  Without BYU/Utah and TCU the MWC's bargaining power is weakened.  They will not likely get a better TV contract until the current contract expires.  As Craig Thompson admitted, the Conference Championship game would not have been as profitable as everyone thinks it could have been.  I agree with that do a point.  The C-USA and the PAC-12 have solved part of that problem by letting one of the participants host the game.  (Then you don't have to rent the facility and have a built-in crowd to buy tickets and attend the game.)  The MWC has to realize that not every conference event is a good fit for Las Vegas.  So USU loses out on the MWC's lack of foresight.

It is the opinion of this blogger that the cause of all of the MWC's problems have been the stupid TV contract.  Utah would have left regardless, and who would have blamed them?  But BYU and TCU would likely stick around if the TV money was there.  It is well documented that the main reason BYU bolted was for TV money.  Take the TV money out of the picture and can you really find motivation for TCU to join the Big East?  Or do you think that a Rutgers/TCU rivalry will be all that?

What does this all mean for Utah State?

Sure the WAC is a sinking conference, but this ship has yet to sink.  Utah State University and it's fans have a choice.  They can sink it or they can help save it.  Because it does not make sense to sink a boat when you are riding in it; they have but one alternative, to make the conference better.  There is only one way to do that, and that is to win games.  Winning will bring fans to the game including those who can only watch on TV.  Utah State could likely be the flagship school of the WAC.  They could make the WAC what it will become.  They could dominate the conference in every sport, including football.  The Aggies are in the best position to do so.  Or they could leave that honor to inconsistent San Jose State, whose fans are looking forward to winning a few games.

It is especially important to take advantage of opportunities.  Don't just play the likes of Oklahoma close and celebrate a moral victory.  Beat the likes of Oklahoma and celebrate.  That is what Boise State did.  Don't play well against a struggling rival and then forget to show when playing a weaker conference foe.  Bury the struggling rival and then crush the weaker conference foe, like TCU has done.  Don't just show up in the 2nd half of a game against the top team in the conference.  Play the full 60 minutes against the top team in the conference, like Nevada did against Boise State.  Sometimes, you come out on top!  Doing these things will show the Mountain West where you truly belong.  Surely UNLV and Wyoming are going to struggle.  Utah State does not have to any longer.  Who is standing in their way?  Texas State?

If USU can do all of this, maybe the MWC will do what they should, and that is dump Wyoming for the Aggies.  The minute Weber State crushes Wyoming in Laramie this fall, the MWC will begin to wonder why they are sticking with a school in the smallest TV market in the FBS, if they do not already.  What will Utah State be doing that Saturday.  Playing the defending national champion!  Will this be a scrimmage for the Tigers or will the Aggies surprise them?  Certainly Auburn will be looking past USU and open the door for an Aggie upset.

For Utah State, the MWC is a much better basketball conference and the WAC will become a one-bid league like the Big Sky; unless New Mexico State can return to their former glory.  In the MWC, they don't lose that much with BYU, Utah and TCU gone.  TCU is not that great in basketball and it is rare that both BYU and Utah are good at the same time.  One seems to be hot while the other is down.  Remember how well BYU was playing the last time Utah made the Final 4?  Yea, neither do I because it was such a forgettable season for BYU.  Look at this season, for example.  BYU in the top 10 and Utah has a head coach fighting to keep his job.  The MWC still has San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming and may be still the 7th best basketball conference in the US even without BYU and Utah. Too bad the MWC passed on a chance to get better. Yes, the MWC presidents made a mistake. In basketball, USU will simply have to continue to be the class of the WAC and not play down to the rest of the league, but crush them like the little ants that they are.

When will the Mountain West Expand Again?

When the Mountain West Conference is ready to expand again, the Aggies need to be ready.  The MWC may end up with more hemorrhaging when conference expansion mania gets going again.  It is unlikely that the Big 12 will remain at 10.  If the Big 12 comes after Colorado State or New Mexico, do you think that they will remain loyal to the MWC?  Only in Laramie would they be in such a state of denial.  Do you really think Wyoming can remain become a competitive FBS program and get an invite to a bigger conference?  No, but Colorado State could, and so could anyone else.

Eventually, probably sooner rather than later, the Mountain West Conference will call on Utah State.  All of the anger that USU fans feel now will then be forgotten.

The WAC is now on the clock. They will likely announce expansion before the end of March Madness.  Here is the latest short list.

1.  Louisiana Lafayette  (Only FBS program in contention.)
2.  Portland State (23,000 seat stadium and large city.  Very attractive option for the WAC.)
3.  Sacramento State (The Hornets, however, may only join as a football-only program if they could put the rest of their sports in the Big West.  The Big Sky seems unwilling to allow this, even though it is what Sacramento State wants.)
4.  Lamar (Close to Houston, very nice option for the WAC.)
5.  Sam Houston State (Also close to Houston and a well supported sports program.)
6.  Northern Arizona (Arizona has a good population to FBS program ratio)
7.  North Dakota State (Decent-sized TV market by WAC Standards, play in a dome that is actually big enough for FBS standards.)
8.  Utah Valley (Basketball Only)
9.  CS Bakersfield (Basketball Only)
10. UT Arlington (Basketball Only)

One final note: The BYU sports not sponsored by the WCC (Softball and Swimming/Diving) will join the WAC.  No surprise here.  The WAC can ill afford to say no to anyone, even though many feel that BYU toyed with them last summer.  Although, people forget that it was actually Fresno State and Nevada that blew the "project" sky high.  Especially Aggie fans, who will find any reason to disrespect BYU.