There were some people that were upset that U-Conn was able to make a BCS bowl. This should only make common sense. If your conference can not have a team in the top 15, then your conference will lose it's seat at the table for that season.
If there justification for this logic? Yes. In BCS History, the record of teams that do not finish in the top 15 is dismal. Teams below the top 15 are only 1-5 in BCS bowl history. That record includes:
2000 Rose Bowl: #7 Wisconsin (9-2, Big Ten champion) 17, #22 Stanford (8-3, Pac-10 champion) 9
2001 Rose Bowl: #4 Washington (10-1, Pac-10 champion) 34, #17 Purdue (8-3, Big Ten champion) 24
2005 Fiesta Bowl: #6 Utah[18] (11-0, MWC champion, Automatic non-AQ) 35, #21 Pittsburgh (8-3, Big East champion) 7
2006 Orange Bowl: #3 Penn State (10-1, Big Ten champion) 26, #22 Florida State (8-4, ACC champion) 23 (3 OT)
2009 Orange Bowl: #19 Virginia Tech (9-4, ACC champion) 20, #12 Cincinnati (11-2, Big East champion) 7
2011 Fiesta Bowl: #7 Oklahoma (11-2, Big 12 Champion) 48 vs. Connecticut (8-4, Big East Champion) 20
In fact, there is good argument for excluding anyone with three or more losses. In addition to these games, those with three or more losses in the top 15 have been:
1999 Orange Bowl: #8 Florida (9-2, At-large) 31, #15 Syracuse (8-3, Big East champion) 10
2004 Fiesta Bowl: #5 Ohio State (10-2, At-large) 35, #10 Kansas State (11-3, Big 12 champion) 28
2008 Rose Bowl: #7 Southern California (10-2, Pac-10 champion) 49, #13 Illinois (9-3, At-large) 17
2008 Season, example of the consequences:
Overall, teams in the BCS with 3 or more losses prior to the bowl season are in BCS games are 1-8. Only once has a team with 3 or more losses has been extended an at-large bid. This was after the 2007 season where Hawaii was invited to the Sugar Bowl. There were three options that the BCS could have considered instead of a three-loss Illinios. Arizona State is the first obvious choice. Of course that would have meant putting ASU in the Orange Bowl and moving Kansas to the Rose Bowl...which would have meant no PAC-10 vs Big 10 Rose Bowl. Other options would have been BYU which would have put 2 non-AQs in the BCS or Missouri which would have meant 3 teams from the Big 12. These are examples of options available for the BCS should there be a 3-loss team win their championship.
Of course the BCS will have to provide some compensation to the conferences that are eliminated due to their record, but it should not be the full payout. They have not earned it. BCS History shows that it is not fair to let a team use conference affiliation as a sole ticket to the big-money bowls. It is not only bad for the BCS reputation, it serves as a catalyst to funky conference alignments like TCU in the Big East and it leads to more fan apathy and exacerbates the calls for a college football playoff. Even with the automatic qualifying conferences, 10 wins is not too much to ask as a minimum for BCS qualification.
In conclusion, it should be recognized that there are some BCS conferences with challenging competition. However, the short history of the BCS has shown that a team with 3 or more losses will not represent their conference well. It looks like it is almost a certain loss. Therefore, the BCS should require that their teams have a minimum of 10 wins even if they are from an automatic qualifying conference. Once all of the teams with 10 wins are taken, then a team with only 9 wins can be considered. Even if a 3-loss team is in the top ten, it does not bode well for their success. Only once has a team ranked lower than 15 ever won a BCS game. That ranking should be considered the lower limit.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
The MWC is not expanding further...for now.
The Mountain West Conference is not going through with plans to expand to 12 at this time. (12 for football and 11 for other sports) I can think of three reasons why they decided not to move at this time.
1. Utah State is very great in basketball and good in other sports, but they have struggled in football. The MWC already has programs that fit this same profile...like UNLV and New Mexico. This is one of the reasons the MWC finished behind the WAC in football power rankings. Too many teams in this conference struggle for success on the gridiron, but do well in other sports. Does the MWC need another program like UNLV, New Mexico or Wyoming? No. They need another Utah. They need a school that can help the conference get BCS AQ status. Sorry Aggie fans, but Utah State is not that school.
2. Utah State could be a good fit for the conference, but is anyone else? If no one from Texas wanted to come join the party, who was there that would be a good addition? When I read that the MWC was looking at San Jose State, I figured that UTEP, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa and North Texas had all said no. San Jose State only offers a big market. Idaho only has good academics. New Mexico State has neither a good sized market nor top notch academics. Those that could have been a good balance for Utah State are not willing to join. There were not a lot of good choices for the MWC, unless the real goal is to kill the WAC. In the long run, would that strategy have hurt the MWC. If you get good from top to bottom, who is going to come and play when the game is a likely loss and there is no TV money?
3. Lack of revenue. It is hard enough to split the meager MWC TV revenue 10 ways, and even more difficult to split the same pie 12 ways. It will not make sense for the MWC president to approve an expansion until there is a better TV contract in place. Without BYU/Utah and TCU the MWC's bargaining power is weakened. They will not likely get a better TV contract until the current contract expires. As Craig Thompson admitted, the Conference Championship game would not have been as profitable as everyone thinks it could have been. I agree with that do a point. The C-USA and the PAC-12 have solved part of that problem by letting one of the participants host the game. (Then you don't have to rent the facility and have a built-in crowd to buy tickets and attend the game.) The MWC has to realize that not every conference event is a good fit for Las Vegas. So USU loses out on the MWC's lack of foresight.
It is the opinion of this blogger that the cause of all of the MWC's problems have been the stupid TV contract. Utah would have left regardless, and who would have blamed them? But BYU and TCU would likely stick around if the TV money was there. It is well documented that the main reason BYU bolted was for TV money. Take the TV money out of the picture and can you really find motivation for TCU to join the Big East? Or do you think that a Rutgers/TCU rivalry will be all that?
What does this all mean for Utah State?
Sure the WAC is a sinking conference, but this ship has yet to sink. Utah State University and it's fans have a choice. They can sink it or they can help save it. Because it does not make sense to sink a boat when you are riding in it; they have but one alternative, to make the conference better. There is only one way to do that, and that is to win games. Winning will bring fans to the game including those who can only watch on TV. Utah State could likely be the flagship school of the WAC. They could make the WAC what it will become. They could dominate the conference in every sport, including football. The Aggies are in the best position to do so. Or they could leave that honor to inconsistent San Jose State, whose fans are looking forward to winning a few games.
It is especially important to take advantage of opportunities. Don't just play the likes of Oklahoma close and celebrate a moral victory. Beat the likes of Oklahoma and celebrate. That is what Boise State did. Don't play well against a struggling rival and then forget to show when playing a weaker conference foe. Bury the struggling rival and then crush the weaker conference foe, like TCU has done. Don't just show up in the 2nd half of a game against the top team in the conference. Play the full 60 minutes against the top team in the conference, like Nevada did against Boise State. Sometimes, you come out on top! Doing these things will show the Mountain West where you truly belong. Surely UNLV and Wyoming are going to struggle. Utah State does not have to any longer. Who is standing in their way? Texas State?
If USU can do all of this, maybe the MWC will do what they should, and that is dump Wyoming for the Aggies. The minute Weber State crushes Wyoming in Laramie this fall, the MWC will begin to wonder why they are sticking with a school in the smallest TV market in the FBS, if they do not already. What will Utah State be doing that Saturday. Playing the defending national champion! Will this be a scrimmage for the Tigers or will the Aggies surprise them? Certainly Auburn will be looking past USU and open the door for an Aggie upset.
For Utah State, the MWC is a much better basketball conference and the WAC will become a one-bid league like the Big Sky; unless New Mexico State can return to their former glory. In the MWC, they don't lose that much with BYU, Utah and TCU gone. TCU is not that great in basketball and it is rare that both BYU and Utah are good at the same time. One seems to be hot while the other is down. Remember how well BYU was playing the last time Utah made the Final 4? Yea, neither do I because it was such a forgettable season for BYU. Look at this season, for example. BYU in the top 10 and Utah has a head coach fighting to keep his job. The MWC still has San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming and may be still the 7th best basketball conference in the US even without BYU and Utah. Too bad the MWC passed on a chance to get better. Yes, the MWC presidents made a mistake. In basketball, USU will simply have to continue to be the class of the WAC and not play down to the rest of the league, but crush them like the little ants that they are.
When will the Mountain West Expand Again?
When the Mountain West Conference is ready to expand again, the Aggies need to be ready. The MWC may end up with more hemorrhaging when conference expansion mania gets going again. It is unlikely that the Big 12 will remain at 10. If the Big 12 comes after Colorado State or New Mexico, do you think that they will remain loyal to the MWC? Only in Laramie would they be in such a state of denial. Do you really think Wyoming canremain become a competitive FBS program and get an invite to a bigger conference? No, but Colorado State could, and so could anyone else.
Eventually, probably sooner rather than later, the Mountain West Conference will call on Utah State. All of the anger that USU fans feel now will then be forgotten.
The WAC is now on the clock. They will likely announce expansion before the end of March Madness. Here is the latest short list.
1. Louisiana Lafayette (Only FBS program in contention.)
2. Portland State (23,000 seat stadium and large city. Very attractive option for the WAC.)
3. Sacramento State (The Hornets, however, may only join as a football-only program if they could put the rest of their sports in the Big West. The Big Sky seems unwilling to allow this, even though it is what Sacramento State wants.)
4. Lamar (Close to Houston, very nice option for the WAC.)
5. Sam Houston State (Also close to Houston and a well supported sports program.)
6. Northern Arizona (Arizona has a good population to FBS program ratio)
7. North Dakota State (Decent-sized TV market by WAC Standards, play in a dome that is actually big enough for FBS standards.)
8. Utah Valley (Basketball Only)
9. CS Bakersfield (Basketball Only)
10. UT Arlington (Basketball Only)
One final note: The BYU sports not sponsored by the WCC (Softball and Swimming/Diving) will join the WAC. No surprise here. The WAC can ill afford to say no to anyone, even though many feel that BYU toyed with them last summer. Although, people forget that it was actually Fresno State and Nevada that blew the "project" sky high. Especially Aggie fans, who will find any reason to disrespect BYU.
1. Utah State is very great in basketball and good in other sports, but they have struggled in football. The MWC already has programs that fit this same profile...like UNLV and New Mexico. This is one of the reasons the MWC finished behind the WAC in football power rankings. Too many teams in this conference struggle for success on the gridiron, but do well in other sports. Does the MWC need another program like UNLV, New Mexico or Wyoming? No. They need another Utah. They need a school that can help the conference get BCS AQ status. Sorry Aggie fans, but Utah State is not that school.
2. Utah State could be a good fit for the conference, but is anyone else? If no one from Texas wanted to come join the party, who was there that would be a good addition? When I read that the MWC was looking at San Jose State, I figured that UTEP, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa and North Texas had all said no. San Jose State only offers a big market. Idaho only has good academics. New Mexico State has neither a good sized market nor top notch academics. Those that could have been a good balance for Utah State are not willing to join. There were not a lot of good choices for the MWC, unless the real goal is to kill the WAC. In the long run, would that strategy have hurt the MWC. If you get good from top to bottom, who is going to come and play when the game is a likely loss and there is no TV money?
3. Lack of revenue. It is hard enough to split the meager MWC TV revenue 10 ways, and even more difficult to split the same pie 12 ways. It will not make sense for the MWC president to approve an expansion until there is a better TV contract in place. Without BYU/Utah and TCU the MWC's bargaining power is weakened. They will not likely get a better TV contract until the current contract expires. As Craig Thompson admitted, the Conference Championship game would not have been as profitable as everyone thinks it could have been. I agree with that do a point. The C-USA and the PAC-12 have solved part of that problem by letting one of the participants host the game. (Then you don't have to rent the facility and have a built-in crowd to buy tickets and attend the game.) The MWC has to realize that not every conference event is a good fit for Las Vegas. So USU loses out on the MWC's lack of foresight.
It is the opinion of this blogger that the cause of all of the MWC's problems have been the stupid TV contract. Utah would have left regardless, and who would have blamed them? But BYU and TCU would likely stick around if the TV money was there. It is well documented that the main reason BYU bolted was for TV money. Take the TV money out of the picture and can you really find motivation for TCU to join the Big East? Or do you think that a Rutgers/TCU rivalry will be all that?
What does this all mean for Utah State?
Sure the WAC is a sinking conference, but this ship has yet to sink. Utah State University and it's fans have a choice. They can sink it or they can help save it. Because it does not make sense to sink a boat when you are riding in it; they have but one alternative, to make the conference better. There is only one way to do that, and that is to win games. Winning will bring fans to the game including those who can only watch on TV. Utah State could likely be the flagship school of the WAC. They could make the WAC what it will become. They could dominate the conference in every sport, including football. The Aggies are in the best position to do so. Or they could leave that honor to inconsistent San Jose State, whose fans are looking forward to winning a few games.
It is especially important to take advantage of opportunities. Don't just play the likes of Oklahoma close and celebrate a moral victory. Beat the likes of Oklahoma and celebrate. That is what Boise State did. Don't play well against a struggling rival and then forget to show when playing a weaker conference foe. Bury the struggling rival and then crush the weaker conference foe, like TCU has done. Don't just show up in the 2nd half of a game against the top team in the conference. Play the full 60 minutes against the top team in the conference, like Nevada did against Boise State. Sometimes, you come out on top! Doing these things will show the Mountain West where you truly belong. Surely UNLV and Wyoming are going to struggle. Utah State does not have to any longer. Who is standing in their way? Texas State?
If USU can do all of this, maybe the MWC will do what they should, and that is dump Wyoming for the Aggies. The minute Weber State crushes Wyoming in Laramie this fall, the MWC will begin to wonder why they are sticking with a school in the smallest TV market in the FBS, if they do not already. What will Utah State be doing that Saturday. Playing the defending national champion! Will this be a scrimmage for the Tigers or will the Aggies surprise them? Certainly Auburn will be looking past USU and open the door for an Aggie upset.
For Utah State, the MWC is a much better basketball conference and the WAC will become a one-bid league like the Big Sky; unless New Mexico State can return to their former glory. In the MWC, they don't lose that much with BYU, Utah and TCU gone. TCU is not that great in basketball and it is rare that both BYU and Utah are good at the same time. One seems to be hot while the other is down. Remember how well BYU was playing the last time Utah made the Final 4? Yea, neither do I because it was such a forgettable season for BYU. Look at this season, for example. BYU in the top 10 and Utah has a head coach fighting to keep his job. The MWC still has San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming and may be still the 7th best basketball conference in the US even without BYU and Utah. Too bad the MWC passed on a chance to get better. Yes, the MWC presidents made a mistake. In basketball, USU will simply have to continue to be the class of the WAC and not play down to the rest of the league, but crush them like the little ants that they are.
When will the Mountain West Expand Again?
When the Mountain West Conference is ready to expand again, the Aggies need to be ready. The MWC may end up with more hemorrhaging when conference expansion mania gets going again. It is unlikely that the Big 12 will remain at 10. If the Big 12 comes after Colorado State or New Mexico, do you think that they will remain loyal to the MWC? Only in Laramie would they be in such a state of denial. Do you really think Wyoming can
Eventually, probably sooner rather than later, the Mountain West Conference will call on Utah State. All of the anger that USU fans feel now will then be forgotten.
The WAC is now on the clock. They will likely announce expansion before the end of March Madness. Here is the latest short list.
1. Louisiana Lafayette (Only FBS program in contention.)
2. Portland State (23,000 seat stadium and large city. Very attractive option for the WAC.)
3. Sacramento State (The Hornets, however, may only join as a football-only program if they could put the rest of their sports in the Big West. The Big Sky seems unwilling to allow this, even though it is what Sacramento State wants.)
4. Lamar (Close to Houston, very nice option for the WAC.)
5. Sam Houston State (Also close to Houston and a well supported sports program.)
6. Northern Arizona (Arizona has a good population to FBS program ratio)
7. North Dakota State (Decent-sized TV market by WAC Standards, play in a dome that is actually big enough for FBS standards.)
8. Utah Valley (Basketball Only)
9. CS Bakersfield (Basketball Only)
10. UT Arlington (Basketball Only)
One final note: The BYU sports not sponsored by the WCC (Softball and Swimming/Diving) will join the WAC. No surprise here. The WAC can ill afford to say no to anyone, even though many feel that BYU toyed with them last summer. Although, people forget that it was actually Fresno State and Nevada that blew the "project" sky high. Especially Aggie fans, who will find any reason to disrespect BYU.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Conference Expansion Updates
For the latest on what the MWC lack of expansion means, check here:
http://wasatchswagger.blogspot.com/2011/01/mwc-is-not-expanding-furtherfor-now.html
Montana to the Mountain West?
I have found a few web sites stating that the MWC at this time is currently eying Texas schools and that Utah State is not on the radar at this time. There are plenty of schools in Texas to choose from, but will any take? The C-USA TV deal is better than the MWC TV deal, so it is doubtful that any C-USA school will accept an MWC invite unless the MWC TV deal can be sweetened a bit.
This could be why now the San Jose Mercury News is reporting that San Jose State is being looked at by the Mountain West Conference. This is curious. The only reason is because of their TV market. It's a large market, but the Spartans are way down the list in favorite football teams in the area. You have 2 NFL teams and 2 PAC-12 teams in the Bay Area. Plus there are 2 Major League Baseball teams, an NBA franchise, an NHL franchise and even a successful MLS team. It's a crowded market. This would also give the MWC another football program that is...shall we say...near the bottom rung of college football. This is a move which would purely be to stick it to the WAC and get them out of California. Otherwise, there is little logic to it. At least Utah State has a good basketball program. The last thing the MWC needs is another bottom-feeder program.
Cal Poly or UC Davis would be a better additions than San Jose State for the MWC if they could resolve their stadium issues. These two schools have quality academic programs and are in markets that are not so saturated with sports programs. Montana would also be a fair choice for the MWC if they really wish to go to 12 schools. The Big East is adding an FBS school (in Villanova) why wouldn't the MWC add Utah State and Montana instead of USU and San Jose State?
Have found out the at MWC presidents will meet on Monday.
Speaking of WAC expanion.
I have heard that the WAC is considering a basketball-only approach. After all, they are having more trouble finding some football programs that want to join. The WAC is going to lose their access to the BCS no matter which way they go, but a basketball only approach will ensure that they keep their NCAA automatic bid. But another site contradicts that argument stating that the WAC is considering some Sun Belt Conference, Southland Conference and Big Sky Conference teams. It is hard to know which direction the conference is taking at this point. They are in a desperation stage, after all.
One new intriguing possibility that I found on another site is North Dakota State. Fargo is not so far out of the WAC footprint to be considered. It is a larger market than some of the other cities on the list and would open up the WAC to recruits in Minnesota.
Yes, Fargo is on the North Dakota side of the ND/MN border. Minnesota has 5 million people and only 1 FBS program. The Fargo/Morehead metro has about 200,000 people. That is larger than current WAC cities Moscow, Logan, Las Cruces and Ruston. The more I read about NDSU, the more I think that WAC will consider them. They have good facilities, a good size student body, sponsor 14 scholarship sports and are ranked as a tier 1 academic school by US News and World Report. In most ways, this school would lift the WAC. Yes, there are some travel problems, but the WAC does not have the "Hawaii problem" any longer. The other problem is that they are in North Dakota and there are only two states with a smaller population: Vermont and Wyoming.
It has been reported that UC Davis and Cal Poly have said no. Cal Poly has been trying to get into the WAC for years, but can not find funding for a stadium expansion. It does not seem like a possibility in the current economy. It has been said that the academic profile of the Big Sky is better than what the WAC will become. This is only because Cal Poly and UC Davis make it so. Cal Poly and UC Davis could lift the academic profile of just about any conference. If Cal Poly and UC Davis join the WAC it will likely only be for football, they will likely insist that their other athletic programs remain in the Big West. This will reduce travel costs. They will also likely insist that they get to host new bowl games to help with their athletic revenue. After all, it has been reported that the only people who make money on bowl games are the hosts. Both cities would make fair bowl sites.
What is the WAC waiting for? An interesting article is here.
MWC Expansion Short List
Utah State
San Jose State
Montana
WAC Expansion Short List
1. Louisiana Lafayette (Sun Belt)
2. Lamar (Southland -- FCS)
3. Sam Houston State (Southland -- FCS)
4. North Dakota State (Missouri Valley/Summit -- FCS)
5. Portland State (Big Sky -- FCS)
6. Northern Arizona (Big Sky -- FCS)
7. UC Davis (Big Sky/Big West -- FCS) (Football only)
8. Cal Poly (Big Sky/Big West -- FCS) (Football only)
9. Weber State (Big Sky -- FCS)
Basketball Only Possibilities
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
http://wasatchswagger.blogspot.com/2011/01/mwc-is-not-expanding-furtherfor-now.html
Montana to the Mountain West?
I have found a few web sites stating that the MWC at this time is currently eying Texas schools and that Utah State is not on the radar at this time. There are plenty of schools in Texas to choose from, but will any take? The C-USA TV deal is better than the MWC TV deal, so it is doubtful that any C-USA school will accept an MWC invite unless the MWC TV deal can be sweetened a bit.
This could be why now the San Jose Mercury News is reporting that San Jose State is being looked at by the Mountain West Conference. This is curious. The only reason is because of their TV market. It's a large market, but the Spartans are way down the list in favorite football teams in the area. You have 2 NFL teams and 2 PAC-12 teams in the Bay Area. Plus there are 2 Major League Baseball teams, an NBA franchise, an NHL franchise and even a successful MLS team. It's a crowded market. This would also give the MWC another football program that is...shall we say...near the bottom rung of college football. This is a move which would purely be to stick it to the WAC and get them out of California. Otherwise, there is little logic to it. At least Utah State has a good basketball program. The last thing the MWC needs is another bottom-feeder program.
Cal Poly or UC Davis would be a better additions than San Jose State for the MWC if they could resolve their stadium issues. These two schools have quality academic programs and are in markets that are not so saturated with sports programs. Montana would also be a fair choice for the MWC if they really wish to go to 12 schools. The Big East is adding an FBS school (in Villanova) why wouldn't the MWC add Utah State and Montana instead of USU and San Jose State?
Have found out the at MWC presidents will meet on Monday.
Speaking of WAC expanion.
I have heard that the WAC is considering a basketball-only approach. After all, they are having more trouble finding some football programs that want to join. The WAC is going to lose their access to the BCS no matter which way they go, but a basketball only approach will ensure that they keep their NCAA automatic bid. But another site contradicts that argument stating that the WAC is considering some Sun Belt Conference, Southland Conference and Big Sky Conference teams. It is hard to know which direction the conference is taking at this point. They are in a desperation stage, after all.
One new intriguing possibility that I found on another site is North Dakota State. Fargo is not so far out of the WAC footprint to be considered. It is a larger market than some of the other cities on the list and would open up the WAC to recruits in Minnesota.
Yes, Fargo is on the North Dakota side of the ND/MN border. Minnesota has 5 million people and only 1 FBS program. The Fargo/Morehead metro has about 200,000 people. That is larger than current WAC cities Moscow, Logan, Las Cruces and Ruston. The more I read about NDSU, the more I think that WAC will consider them. They have good facilities, a good size student body, sponsor 14 scholarship sports and are ranked as a tier 1 academic school by US News and World Report. In most ways, this school would lift the WAC. Yes, there are some travel problems, but the WAC does not have the "Hawaii problem" any longer. The other problem is that they are in North Dakota and there are only two states with a smaller population: Vermont and Wyoming.
It has been reported that UC Davis and Cal Poly have said no. Cal Poly has been trying to get into the WAC for years, but can not find funding for a stadium expansion. It does not seem like a possibility in the current economy. It has been said that the academic profile of the Big Sky is better than what the WAC will become. This is only because Cal Poly and UC Davis make it so. Cal Poly and UC Davis could lift the academic profile of just about any conference. If Cal Poly and UC Davis join the WAC it will likely only be for football, they will likely insist that their other athletic programs remain in the Big West. This will reduce travel costs. They will also likely insist that they get to host new bowl games to help with their athletic revenue. After all, it has been reported that the only people who make money on bowl games are the hosts. Both cities would make fair bowl sites.
What is the WAC waiting for? An interesting article is here.
MWC Expansion Short List
Utah State
San Jose State
Montana
WAC Expansion Short List
1. Louisiana Lafayette (Sun Belt)
2. Lamar (Southland -- FCS)
3. Sam Houston State (Southland -- FCS)
4. North Dakota State (Missouri Valley/Summit -- FCS)
5. Portland State (Big Sky -- FCS)
6. Northern Arizona (Big Sky -- FCS)
7. UC Davis (Big Sky/Big West -- FCS) (Football only)
8. Cal Poly (Big Sky/Big West -- FCS) (Football only)
9. Weber State (Big Sky -- FCS)
Basketball Only Possibilities
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
Friday, January 14, 2011
Impressions About the Utah 2011 Football Schedule
S1 Montana State
S10 @USC
S17 @BYU
S24 bye
O1 Washington
O8 Arizona State
O15 @ Pittsburgh
O22 @ California
O29 Oregon State
N5 @ Arizona
N12 UCLA
N19 @ Washington State
N26 Colorado
Most likely wins (6) The Utes should win these 6 games
Montana State
Washington
@ California
UCLA
@ Washington State
Colorado
Probable Wins (3) The Utes should win 2 of these 3.
Arizona State
@ Pittsburgh
@ California
Probable Losses (3) At most, the Utes win just one of these games, but will likely lose all three
@USC
@BYU
@Arizona
Trap Game: UCLA -- The Utes could be emotionally burned out after the brutal games stretch from game 2 at USC to game 8 at Arizona and look past the Bruins.
Suggestion: Kick off for the Washington Game at 8:30 due to General Conference.
Best Case Scenario
10-2 with a Rose Bowl Invitation
Most Likely Scenario
9-3 with a Holiday Bowl Invitation
Worst Case Scenario
6-6 with a New Mexico Bowl Invitation
S10 @USC
S17 @BYU
S24 bye
O1 Washington
O8 Arizona State
O15 @ Pittsburgh
O22 @ California
O29 Oregon State
N5 @ Arizona
N12 UCLA
N19 @ Washington State
N26 Colorado
Most likely wins (6) The Utes should win these 6 games
Montana State
Washington
@ California
UCLA
@ Washington State
Colorado
Probable Wins (3) The Utes should win 2 of these 3.
Arizona State
@ Pittsburgh
@ California
Probable Losses (3) At most, the Utes win just one of these games, but will likely lose all three
@USC
@BYU
@Arizona
Trap Game: UCLA -- The Utes could be emotionally burned out after the brutal games stretch from game 2 at USC to game 8 at Arizona and look past the Bruins.
Suggestion: Kick off for the Washington Game at 8:30 due to General Conference.
Best Case Scenario
10-2 with a Rose Bowl Invitation
Most Likely Scenario
9-3 with a Holiday Bowl Invitation
Worst Case Scenario
6-6 with a New Mexico Bowl Invitation
Impressions about the BYU 2011 Schedule
S3 @ Mississippi (Ole Miss)
S10 @ Texas
S17 Utah
S23 Central Florida
S30 Utah State
O8 San Jose State (Probably Homecoming)
O15 @ Oregon State
O22 Idaho State
O29 Open
N5 @ Louisiana Tech
N12 Idaho
N15 New Mexico State
N26 Open
D3 @ Hawaii
Likely Wins (6)
Utah State
San Jose State
@ Louisiana Tech
Idaho State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Probable Wins (4) BYU wins at least 2 of these games, possibly 3 and maybe all 4.
@ Mississippi
Utah
Central Florida
@ Oregon State
Probably Losses (2) BYU might win 1 of these 2 games but will likely lose both.
@ Texas
@ Hawaii
Post Season:
BYU has no post season contract for 2011 and will likely have to be ranked in the Top 10 to get a BCS bid. Too bad they play @ Hawaii to finish the season, a loss at Aloha Stadium will knock the Cougars out of the Top 10 if the best case scenario holds out. But the Hawaii game has the potential to be a BCS play-in game with the winner getting a big bowl game. Otherwise, I believe that BYU will get to be a sub for a conference that is not able to fill all of it's bowl commitments. Which could mean another trip to Las Vegas.
Trap Game: Central Florida. The Knights are good enough to win in Provo and catch BYU after the Holy War and before the Holy Payback game (Against Utah State).
Best Case Scenario:
11-1 With a BCS Bowl Bid
Most Likely Scenario:
9-3 With a Las Vegas Bowl Bid
Worst Case Scenario:
6-6 With a Humanitarian Bowl Bid
S10 @ Texas
S17 Utah
S23 Central Florida
S30 Utah State
O8 San Jose State (Probably Homecoming)
O15 @ Oregon State
O22 Idaho State
O29 Open
N5 @ Louisiana Tech
N12 Idaho
N15 New Mexico State
N26 Open
D3 @ Hawaii
Likely Wins (6)
Utah State
San Jose State
@ Louisiana Tech
Idaho State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Probable Wins (4) BYU wins at least 2 of these games, possibly 3 and maybe all 4.
@ Mississippi
Utah
Central Florida
@ Oregon State
Probably Losses (2) BYU might win 1 of these 2 games but will likely lose both.
@ Texas
@ Hawaii
Post Season:
BYU has no post season contract for 2011 and will likely have to be ranked in the Top 10 to get a BCS bid. Too bad they play @ Hawaii to finish the season, a loss at Aloha Stadium will knock the Cougars out of the Top 10 if the best case scenario holds out. But the Hawaii game has the potential to be a BCS play-in game with the winner getting a big bowl game. Otherwise, I believe that BYU will get to be a sub for a conference that is not able to fill all of it's bowl commitments. Which could mean another trip to Las Vegas.
Trap Game: Central Florida. The Knights are good enough to win in Provo and catch BYU after the Holy War and before the Holy Payback game (Against Utah State).
Best Case Scenario:
11-1 With a BCS Bowl Bid
Most Likely Scenario:
9-3 With a Las Vegas Bowl Bid
Worst Case Scenario:
6-6 With a Humanitarian Bowl Bid
Impressions about the Weber State 2011 Schedule
S3 @ Wyoming
S10 @ Utah State
S17 Sacramento State
S24 @Northern Colorado
O1 @ Eastern Washington
O8 Open
O15 Idaho State (Probably Homecoming)
O22 Southern Utah
O29 @ Montana
N5 Montana State
N12 Northern Arizona
N19 @ Portland State
Likely Wins--WSU wins all 4 of these games. Especially the chance to get pay back against Sacramento State.
Sacramento State (Pay Back time)
@ Northern Colorado (Won't be easy, but will be the same UNC team we know and love.)
Idaho State (Same ol, same ol)
Northern Arizona (Remember the Snow Game in 2009?)
Could-be wins: WSU wins at least 2 of these games and loses at least 1 but could win all 6.
@ Wyoming (Most likely-the Wyoming program is in disarray right now. Austyn Carta-Samuels has transferred and the coaching staff has been reshuffled.)
@Utah State (Least likely. No Diondre Borel, but the Aggie D will be tough.)
Southern Utah (Justin Sorensen is back in Cedar City. This could be a shootout.)
Montana State (Lost some key players due to academic ineligibility.)
@ Portland State (Will be tough to defend the Pistol again next season.)
@Montana (The Grizz are rebuilding in 2011)
Likely Loss--WSU likely will not win this game.
@Eastern Washington (Defending national champions will have both Mitchell and Jones back in 2011.)
Worst case scenario 4-7
Low end probable 6-5
Best case scenario 9-2
S10 @ Utah State
S17 Sacramento State
S24 @Northern Colorado
O1 @ Eastern Washington
O8 Open
O15 Idaho State (Probably Homecoming)
O22 Southern Utah
O29 @ Montana
N5 Montana State
N12 Northern Arizona
N19 @ Portland State
Likely Wins--WSU wins all 4 of these games. Especially the chance to get pay back against Sacramento State.
Sacramento State (Pay Back time)
@ Northern Colorado (Won't be easy, but will be the same UNC team we know and love.)
Idaho State (Same ol, same ol)
Northern Arizona (Remember the Snow Game in 2009?)
Could-be wins: WSU wins at least 2 of these games and loses at least 1 but could win all 6.
@ Wyoming (Most likely-the Wyoming program is in disarray right now. Austyn Carta-Samuels has transferred and the coaching staff has been reshuffled.)
@Utah State (Least likely. No Diondre Borel, but the Aggie D will be tough.)
Southern Utah (Justin Sorensen is back in Cedar City. This could be a shootout.)
Montana State (Lost some key players due to academic ineligibility.)
@ Portland State (Will be tough to defend the Pistol again next season.)
@Montana (The Grizz are rebuilding in 2011)
Likely Loss--WSU likely will not win this game.
@Eastern Washington (Defending national champions will have both Mitchell and Jones back in 2011.)
Worst case scenario 4-7
Low end probable 6-5
Best case scenario 9-2
Improving Attendance at Weber State Football Games
Whether or not Weber State has plans to jump to the FBS, the attendance at football games is pathetic. But the athletic department is not completely to blame. The schools has had some back luck in scheduling games favorable to good attendance. I have 10 suggestions on improving attendance in Ogden.
1. Nearly half of the student body at WSU is LDS, why schedule games on the first weekend in October? If having a home game that week is unavoidable, why not kick off the game at 8:30?
2. The third week in October is also not a good weekend for a home game in the state of Utah. But this is a problem with most of the Big Sky Conference. Not everyone can play at Sacramento State and Portland State at that time of year. If you have to schedule a game that weekend, why not offer special prices for deer widows and their children.
3. The stadium needs better restroom facilities. Right now, the choice is between waiting in line for the crumbling 40+ year old facility in the northwest corner and using a portable john. Not much of an issue for us guys, but I have a wife and two daughters and I have to hear about it every time a visit to Stewart Stadium is in our plans.
4. Better concession facilities would be nice.
5. WSU offers a degree in business management with an emphasis in marketing and a MBA with an emphasis in marketing. Don't these kids need some practical and challenging real-world experience? Why doesn't the athletic department provide that opportunity? This has been tried with success at Miami of Ohio.
6. Free food for the students at a pre-game tailgating event. (It would have worked for me when I was a WSU student.)
7. Find a way to get more students and alumni involved on the field in the opening ceremonies. For example, students and alumni can have their names drawn to be part of 100 or so WSU people that create a path for the football players to run through at the beginning of the game.
8. Offer a free pass, or a very cheap ticket to area high school kids if they tour campus facilities before games.
9. Fraternity/Sorority Contests to see who can get the most students to the games.
10. Win baby, Win.
Anyone other ideas, post a comment!
1. Nearly half of the student body at WSU is LDS, why schedule games on the first weekend in October? If having a home game that week is unavoidable, why not kick off the game at 8:30?
2. The third week in October is also not a good weekend for a home game in the state of Utah. But this is a problem with most of the Big Sky Conference. Not everyone can play at Sacramento State and Portland State at that time of year. If you have to schedule a game that weekend, why not offer special prices for deer widows and their children.
3. The stadium needs better restroom facilities. Right now, the choice is between waiting in line for the crumbling 40+ year old facility in the northwest corner and using a portable john. Not much of an issue for us guys, but I have a wife and two daughters and I have to hear about it every time a visit to Stewart Stadium is in our plans.
4. Better concession facilities would be nice.
5. WSU offers a degree in business management with an emphasis in marketing and a MBA with an emphasis in marketing. Don't these kids need some practical and challenging real-world experience? Why doesn't the athletic department provide that opportunity? This has been tried with success at Miami of Ohio.
6. Free food for the students at a pre-game tailgating event. (It would have worked for me when I was a WSU student.)
7. Find a way to get more students and alumni involved on the field in the opening ceremonies. For example, students and alumni can have their names drawn to be part of 100 or so WSU people that create a path for the football players to run through at the beginning of the game.
8. Offer a free pass, or a very cheap ticket to area high school kids if they tour campus facilities before games.
9. Fraternity/Sorority Contests to see who can get the most students to the games.
10. Win baby, Win.
Anyone other ideas, post a comment!
Sunday, January 9, 2011
WAC-Apocalypse Answer--A New Conference
Let's say that the other shoe finally drops for the WAC and they lose Utah State to the MWC. At that point, the WAC can fold and begin a new conference. There is a chance that schools that have rejected the old WAC may join a conference under a new charter. One that addresses that weaknesses that have killed the venerable old conference...mainly the frequent flier miles. The New Conference could leave Louisiana Tech, UTSA and Texas State to the Sun Belt Conference or CSU and charter that they would not admit any school in a state completely west of the Continental Divide. This means that New Mexico State and Denver can stay.
WAC remnants:
San Jose State
New Mexico State
Idaho
Denver (Basketball Only)
Now, they would need five current schools from the FBS to join. Some could be football only, but the majority need to participate in all sports. The schools that are added need to already have facilities in place. This means that they already have a football stadium that is already 15,000 seats or greater. The schools must currently sponsor at least 14 scholarship sports so that the jump to 16 will not be too great of a financial burden. The Big Sky Conference is the only place to look for schools that meet this criteria.
All sports participants.
Montana
14 varsity sports with a 23,000 seat stadium
Northern Arizona
14 varsity sports with a 15,000 seat stadium
Weber State
14 varsity sports with a 17,500 seat stadium
Possible Football-only participant
Sacramento State (Would be allowed to move the non-football programs to the Big West Conference.)
18 varsity sports with a 21,000 seat stadium
Programs that would not meet the standards for the new conference:
Cal Poly--Football stadium too small.
20 varsity sports with a 11,000 seat stadium
UC Davis--Football stadium is also too small.
23 varsity sports with a 10,000 seat stadium
Montana State--Not enough sponsored programs
13 varsity sports with a stadium expansion underway to raise the capacity to 23,000
Portland State--Not enough sponsored programs
12 varsity sports with a 20,000 seat stadium
Eastern Washington--Neither a large enough stadium nor enough sponsored sports.
10 varsity sports with a 12,000 seat stadium
However, the charter can include provisional invitations to these four schools once they meet the charter criteria. Cal Poly and UC Davis could also be football-only schools.
Basketball Only Schools:
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
The new conference would have 7 football schools and 9 basketball schools for a start. If there needs to be more football schools, then UTSA and/or Texas State can be added with the provision that there will be no more expansion east of the Mountain Time Zone. If the other four schools join as provisioned by the charter, the conference could have 12 schools for football and 12 schools for basketball.
The charter can also have provisions to include CS-Fullerton, Long Beach State and the University of the Pacific if those schools bring back football.
The new conference would be a FBS school and sponsor a new bowl game in San Jose for the conference champion to play in.
WAC remnants:
San Jose State
New Mexico State
Idaho
Denver (Basketball Only)
Now, they would need five current schools from the FBS to join. Some could be football only, but the majority need to participate in all sports. The schools that are added need to already have facilities in place. This means that they already have a football stadium that is already 15,000 seats or greater. The schools must currently sponsor at least 14 scholarship sports so that the jump to 16 will not be too great of a financial burden. The Big Sky Conference is the only place to look for schools that meet this criteria.
All sports participants.
Montana
14 varsity sports with a 23,000 seat stadium
Northern Arizona
14 varsity sports with a 15,000 seat stadium
Weber State
14 varsity sports with a 17,500 seat stadium
Possible Football-only participant
Sacramento State (Would be allowed to move the non-football programs to the Big West Conference.)
18 varsity sports with a 21,000 seat stadium
Programs that would not meet the standards for the new conference:
Cal Poly--Football stadium too small.
20 varsity sports with a 11,000 seat stadium
UC Davis--Football stadium is also too small.
23 varsity sports with a 10,000 seat stadium
Montana State--Not enough sponsored programs
13 varsity sports with a stadium expansion underway to raise the capacity to 23,000
Portland State--Not enough sponsored programs
12 varsity sports with a 20,000 seat stadium
Eastern Washington--Neither a large enough stadium nor enough sponsored sports.
10 varsity sports with a 12,000 seat stadium
However, the charter can include provisional invitations to these four schools once they meet the charter criteria. Cal Poly and UC Davis could also be football-only schools.
Basketball Only Schools:
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
The new conference would have 7 football schools and 9 basketball schools for a start. If there needs to be more football schools, then UTSA and/or Texas State can be added with the provision that there will be no more expansion east of the Mountain Time Zone. If the other four schools join as provisioned by the charter, the conference could have 12 schools for football and 12 schools for basketball.
The charter can also have provisions to include CS-Fullerton, Long Beach State and the University of the Pacific if those schools bring back football.
The new conference would be a FBS school and sponsor a new bowl game in San Jose for the conference champion to play in.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Academic Profile of the WAC vs the Big Sky
There seems to be some debate as to the academic profile of the WAC compared with the academic profile of the Big Sky Conference. Does the Big Sky Conference have a better academic profile than the WAC, as claimed by one Cal-Poly alum, after recent conference moves? Let's see:
For the first run, I used the schools own web sites. Not all schools brag about their rankings and I was thrashed by a couple of readers for listing these programs as unranked. I apologize to those whom I offended. Some schools believe that their accreditation is more important than their ranking. Portland State brags about how "green" they are. I have been the the USNWR web site and corrected the findings, but my conclusion is the same.
WAC:
Ranked by US News and World Report (8 out of 8)
National Tier 1 (Top 250) (3--average ranking 136)
Denver University--US News and World Report, 84--National University Tier 1
University of Idaho--US News and World Report, 153--National Level Tier 1
Utah State University--US News and World Report, 170--National Level Tier 1
National Tier 2 (2)
Louisiana Tech University--US News and World Report, Tier 2
New Mexico State University--US News and World Report, Tier 2
Regional Masters Programs, Western Region (3) (No or few doctoral or research programs) (Average ranking is 49)
Texas State University--US News and World Report, 40--Masters Level
San Jose State University--US News and World Report, 44--Masters Level
University of Texas-San Antonio--US News and World Report, 62--Masters Level
Big Sky Conference
Ranked by US News and World Report (13 out of 13)
National Tier 1 (4) (Average ranking 128)
UC-Davis-US News and World Report, 34--National University Tier 1
University of North Dakota-US New and World Report 159--National University Tier1
Montana State University-US New and World Report 183-National University Tier 1
University of Montana-US New and World Report 191--National University Tier 1
National Tier 2 (4)
Northern Arizona University
Idaho State University
University of Northern Colorado
Portland State University
Regional Maters Programs (5) (Average Ranking 50)
Cal Poly-US News and World Report, 1--Masters Level
Eastern Washington University-US News and World Report, 56--Masters Level
Weber State University -US News and World Report, 59--Masters Level
Sacramento State University-US News and World Report, 62--Masters Level
Southern Utah University-US News and World Report, 75--Masters Level
For kicks and Grins:
Mountain West Conference (post shuffle)
Ranked (9 out of 10)
National Tier 1 (4) (Average Ranking 163)
Colorado State University--US News and World Report, 128--National University Tier 1
University of Wyoming--US News and World Report, 153--National University Tier 1
University of Hawaii at Manoa--US News and World Report, 159--National University Tier 1
San Diego State University--US News and World Report, 183--National University Tier 1
University of Nevada at Reno--US News and World Report, 191--National University Tier 1
National Tier 2 (2)
University of New Mexico--US News and World Report, National Tier 2
University of Nevada at Las Vegas--US News and World Report, National Tier 2
Regional Master's Programs (2) (Average Ranking 45)
Fresno State University--US News and World Report, 38-Masters Level
Boise State University--US News and World Report, 51--Masters Level
Not Ranked (1)
US Air Force Academy--Not Ranked for obvious reasons. None of the service academies are ranked, but very few would argue the quality of education received. Part of what goes into the ranking is job placement. The service academies all place 100% of their graduates.
It is easy to see why someone from Cal Poly or UC Davis could say that the Big Sky Conference has a higher academic profile than the WAC. But that is the case because UC Davis and Cal Poly make it so. The rankings that Cal Poly and UC Davis have earned are so very high compared to the rest of the Big Sky Conference that they improve the average ranking considerably. They skew the results. The tier 1 average ranking for the Big Sky is 175 without UC Davis and the average masters programs are ranked at 63 without Cal Poly. If these two schools were in the WAC, then the WAC would be ranked higher. These two schools would boost the academic standing of the MWC as well.
You have to compare apples to apples. It is hard to compare a university without a doctorate program to one that has a doctorate program. However, I think you need to look at as a parent helping my kids choose a University. If the choice is between Idaho and Cal Poly, for example, I would choose Cal Poly if academics were the only consideration. However, if my son was a star wide receiver with, who would start as a freshman at either school and therefore would have an outside chance at an NFL career and the choice is between Idaho and Cal Poly, I would choose Idaho for the greater exposure.
The Mountain West Conference is lower than either the Big Sky or the WAC when comparing their tier 1 programs (That is with UC Davis included in the Big Sky). But the MWC has higher ranked regional programs. No service academies are ranked, but the Air Force Academy is so selective that it improves the academic profile of the MWC. The MWC took a major hit academically as it's three best academic programs are leaving. It's average academic tier 1 ranking was 91 before BYU, TCU and Utah left and the MWC had no master's program schools before Boise State and Fresno State were invited.
Here is what the MWC has lost:
Ranked (3)
National Tier 1
Brigham Young University--US News and World Report, 71--National University Tier 1
Texas Christian University--US News and World Report, 99--National University Tier 1
University of Utah--US News and World Report, 126--National University Tier 1
As far a academic rankings are concerned, it would be nice if everyone could go to Harvard and get that quality of education. But, alas, it is not so. Some people consider academics and athletics when considering whether or not to donate or give a grant to a certain university. The athletic conference is something that a university has some control over and it represents who you believe your peers are. It is important that a university pick the right conference and it is important that a conference pick the right schools. It can make a difference. From an academic standpoint, UC Davis and Cal Poly are probably in the wrong conference.
For the first run, I used the schools own web sites. Not all schools brag about their rankings and I was thrashed by a couple of readers for listing these programs as unranked. I apologize to those whom I offended. Some schools believe that their accreditation is more important than their ranking. Portland State brags about how "green" they are. I have been the the USNWR web site and corrected the findings, but my conclusion is the same.
WAC:
Ranked by US News and World Report (8 out of 8)
National Tier 1 (Top 250) (3--average ranking 136)
Denver University--US News and World Report, 84--National University Tier 1
University of Idaho--US News and World Report, 153--National Level Tier 1
Utah State University--US News and World Report, 170--National Level Tier 1
National Tier 2 (2)
Louisiana Tech University--US News and World Report, Tier 2
New Mexico State University--US News and World Report, Tier 2
Regional Masters Programs, Western Region (3) (No or few doctoral or research programs) (Average ranking is 49)
Texas State University--US News and World Report, 40--Masters Level
San Jose State University--US News and World Report, 44--Masters Level
University of Texas-San Antonio--US News and World Report, 62--Masters Level
Big Sky Conference
Ranked by US News and World Report (13 out of 13)
National Tier 1 (4) (Average ranking 128)
UC-Davis-US News and World Report, 34--National University Tier 1
University of North Dakota-US New and World Report 159--National University Tier1
Montana State University-US New and World Report 183-National University Tier 1
University of Montana-US New and World Report 191--National University Tier 1
National Tier 2 (4)
Northern Arizona University
Idaho State University
University of Northern Colorado
Portland State University
Regional Maters Programs (5) (Average Ranking 50)
Cal Poly-US News and World Report, 1--Masters Level
Eastern Washington University-US News and World Report, 56--Masters Level
Weber State University -US News and World Report, 59--Masters Level
Sacramento State University-US News and World Report, 62--Masters Level
Southern Utah University-US News and World Report, 75--Masters Level
For kicks and Grins:
Mountain West Conference (post shuffle)
Ranked (9 out of 10)
National Tier 1 (4) (Average Ranking 163)
Colorado State University--US News and World Report, 128--National University Tier 1
University of Wyoming--US News and World Report, 153--National University Tier 1
University of Hawaii at Manoa--US News and World Report, 159--National University Tier 1
San Diego State University--US News and World Report, 183--National University Tier 1
University of Nevada at Reno--US News and World Report, 191--National University Tier 1
National Tier 2 (2)
University of New Mexico--US News and World Report, National Tier 2
University of Nevada at Las Vegas--US News and World Report, National Tier 2
Regional Master's Programs (2) (Average Ranking 45)
Fresno State University--US News and World Report, 38-Masters Level
Boise State University--US News and World Report, 51--Masters Level
Not Ranked (1)
US Air Force Academy--Not Ranked for obvious reasons. None of the service academies are ranked, but very few would argue the quality of education received. Part of what goes into the ranking is job placement. The service academies all place 100% of their graduates.
It is easy to see why someone from Cal Poly or UC Davis could say that the Big Sky Conference has a higher academic profile than the WAC. But that is the case because UC Davis and Cal Poly make it so. The rankings that Cal Poly and UC Davis have earned are so very high compared to the rest of the Big Sky Conference that they improve the average ranking considerably. They skew the results. The tier 1 average ranking for the Big Sky is 175 without UC Davis and the average masters programs are ranked at 63 without Cal Poly. If these two schools were in the WAC, then the WAC would be ranked higher. These two schools would boost the academic standing of the MWC as well.
You have to compare apples to apples. It is hard to compare a university without a doctorate program to one that has a doctorate program. However, I think you need to look at as a parent helping my kids choose a University. If the choice is between Idaho and Cal Poly, for example, I would choose Cal Poly if academics were the only consideration. However, if my son was a star wide receiver with, who would start as a freshman at either school and therefore would have an outside chance at an NFL career and the choice is between Idaho and Cal Poly, I would choose Idaho for the greater exposure.
The Mountain West Conference is lower than either the Big Sky or the WAC when comparing their tier 1 programs (That is with UC Davis included in the Big Sky). But the MWC has higher ranked regional programs. No service academies are ranked, but the Air Force Academy is so selective that it improves the academic profile of the MWC. The MWC took a major hit academically as it's three best academic programs are leaving. It's average academic tier 1 ranking was 91 before BYU, TCU and Utah left and the MWC had no master's program schools before Boise State and Fresno State were invited.
Here is what the MWC has lost:
Ranked (3)
National Tier 1
Brigham Young University--US News and World Report, 71--National University Tier 1
Texas Christian University--US News and World Report, 99--National University Tier 1
University of Utah--US News and World Report, 126--National University Tier 1
As far a academic rankings are concerned, it would be nice if everyone could go to Harvard and get that quality of education. But, alas, it is not so. Some people consider academics and athletics when considering whether or not to donate or give a grant to a certain university. The athletic conference is something that a university has some control over and it represents who you believe your peers are. It is important that a university pick the right conference and it is important that a conference pick the right schools. It can make a difference. From an academic standpoint, UC Davis and Cal Poly are probably in the wrong conference.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
FBS Independents power rankings for 2010 going into 2011
The non-affiliated ranks in FBS college football increase by 1 in 2011. But unlike a real conference, BYU will not play Notre Dame until next season and will not likely play Army or Navy until 2013 at the soonest. Both Service academies get Notre Dame in 2011.
Power Rankings:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame finished the 2010 season on a four game win streak with and a freshman quarterback under center. But he was filling in for Dayne Crist who was injured halfway through the season. At least the passing game will be solid. Notre Dame did not beat up on some lucky-to-be-here team in their bowl game either to keep their streak alive. It was a pretty good Miami team in the Sun Bowl. There is a lot of talent on this team. Their hype going into 2011 will be well deserved, but 9-3, which is good for 99% of the college football world, does not cut it in South Bend. But that is realistic for 2011.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Running game.
2. Brigham Young Cougars. BYU returns 9 starters from an offense that won 5 of their last 6 games in 2011 while 7 starters return on defense. One similarity with the 2011 schedule that they had in 2010 is the soft part of the schedule is in the second half of the season. BYU gets the weaker part of the WAC in the later part of 2011. Jake Heaps was very good when he would good, and lousy to begin with. He was 154 in November. The defense was also very good down the stretch including against the a ranked Utah team. However, the competition down the stretch was suspect including the bowl blowout. Against good teams, they may not do so well.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Continued inconsistency on offense.
3. Navy Midshipmen. Rick Dobbs will be in service somewhere out to sea when the 2011 season kicks off. Most of the rest of this very tough to stop rushing offense will return. The schedule, however, is a little bit more difficult than Navy has dealt with for a while. Instead of being laden with the bottom-feeders from the MAC, C-USA and other east coast conferences, the schedule has a little bit more meat. They begin with Delaware who is playing for the FCS championship next week and would certainly be a tough game for any FBS team. The schedule also has South Carolina, Rutgers and SMU. 7-5 is possible but 5-7 might be realistic.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Replacing Dobbs.
4. Army Black Knights. 2001 was the last time that Army beat Navy. The seniors on the 2011 Army team were 11 or 12 the last time Army beat Navy and there now 6 Army classes that do not know what a victory over Navy is like. But at least they now know what a winning season and a bowl game victory feels like. There should be more of the same in 2011 as the schedule is favorable. Leading rusher Jared Hassin will return.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Lack of a real passing game.
Power Rankings:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame finished the 2010 season on a four game win streak with and a freshman quarterback under center. But he was filling in for Dayne Crist who was injured halfway through the season. At least the passing game will be solid. Notre Dame did not beat up on some lucky-to-be-here team in their bowl game either to keep their streak alive. It was a pretty good Miami team in the Sun Bowl. There is a lot of talent on this team. Their hype going into 2011 will be well deserved, but 9-3, which is good for 99% of the college football world, does not cut it in South Bend. But that is realistic for 2011.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Running game.
2. Brigham Young Cougars. BYU returns 9 starters from an offense that won 5 of their last 6 games in 2011 while 7 starters return on defense. One similarity with the 2011 schedule that they had in 2010 is the soft part of the schedule is in the second half of the season. BYU gets the weaker part of the WAC in the later part of 2011. Jake Heaps was very good when he would good, and lousy to begin with. He was 154 in November. The defense was also very good down the stretch including against the a ranked Utah team. However, the competition down the stretch was suspect including the bowl blowout. Against good teams, they may not do so well.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Continued inconsistency on offense.
3. Navy Midshipmen. Rick Dobbs will be in service somewhere out to sea when the 2011 season kicks off. Most of the rest of this very tough to stop rushing offense will return. The schedule, however, is a little bit more difficult than Navy has dealt with for a while. Instead of being laden with the bottom-feeders from the MAC, C-USA and other east coast conferences, the schedule has a little bit more meat. They begin with Delaware who is playing for the FCS championship next week and would certainly be a tough game for any FBS team. The schedule also has South Carolina, Rutgers and SMU. 7-5 is possible but 5-7 might be realistic.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Replacing Dobbs.
4. Army Black Knights. 2001 was the last time that Army beat Navy. The seniors on the 2011 Army team were 11 or 12 the last time Army beat Navy and there now 6 Army classes that do not know what a victory over Navy is like. But at least they now know what a winning season and a bowl game victory feels like. There should be more of the same in 2011 as the schedule is favorable. Leading rusher Jared Hassin will return.
Biggest potential 2010 obstacle: Lack of a real passing game.
Pac-12 Power Rankings end of 2010 going into 2011.
For Colorado, they will find that they are switching from one conference that they do not fit in with very well to another, but there are not a lot of choices in the mountains. But Utah will find a big difference between the two. For example, Utah will not get to follow up a TCU loss by beating up on Wyoming. In the PAC-12, they will have to be ready every week...except that Washington State is between UCLA and Colorado. But games 2 through 8 will be tough.
Power Rankings.
1. Oregon Ducks. Win or lose against Auburn next week, the Ducks will return most of their offense from last season and seven starters from defense. The number 1 scoring offense from 2010 will likely continue to pour on the points and LaMichael James will be the Heisman favorite for 2011. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Remaining healthy.
Update: Oregon's weaknesses on offense were exposed by the Auburn defense in the National Championship game. However, there probably is not anyone in the PAC-12 that has the personnel to take advantage. It will be interesting to see if anyone tries to copy the schemes that Auburn used.
2. Stanford Cardinal. Stanford, as of today, only returns five starters on offense next season. If Jim Harbaugh leaves Palo Alto for the NFL, expect Andrew Luck to follow. The Cardinal have one of the best defenses in the country in 2010 and with eight returning starters, 2011 will be better. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Possible replacement of Harbaugh and Luck to go with so many losses on offense.
Update: Luck is staying but Harbaugh moves on to the 49ers. The key to the 2011 season is how well the team responds to their new coach.
3. Arizona State Sun Devils. Dennis Erickson returns starters in 21 of 22 positions for 2011. Usually returning that kind of experience will equal success, but the Devils had a few disappointments in 2010, where they were 1-4 in games decided by one score. They may have learned their lesson as special teams play costs them a chance to win at Wisconsin and USC, but made the difference against Arizona at the end of the season. Turnovers were the big culprit in their other losses. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Avoiding give-a-ways.
4. Utah Utes. The offense loses all of their key players except for quarterback Jordan Wynn who will be a junior in 2011. But the offense played very poorly toward the end of 2011 and had to take advantage of late-game turnovers to get wins against BYU and San Diego State. That kind of success is the hallmark of a Kyle Whittingham team. Building from scratch on offense may not be such a bad thing. The defense, on the other hand, has played well with seven returning starters. The schedule, while not exactly brutal, is no cake-walk but softens late in the season. The Utes should make an impression in their first PAC-12 season, but don't expect the championship game to come to Salt Lake City in 2012, although I won't be surprised if the Utes end up playing there. For some reason, the Utes avoided getting Oregon or Stanford on the schedule. 9-3 or better is a realistic possibility. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding offensive punch.
5. USC Trojans. Matt Barkley brings his 141 QB rating back for 2011 and should be very effective if he can remain healthy, in spite of losses in other key positions. The defense returns eight starters. USC was three plays from being 11-2 and one should not expect them to be 2-3 in close shaves next year and they should be improved on defense where they gave up 30+ points in six games. USC will once again be ineligible for the post season and that will have a negative impact on recruiting and replacements for player losses in key positions. It does not seem to have an effect on the star power at USC, but it will have an effect on their depth. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Replacement of players in key offensive positions.
6. Oregon State Beavers. It is hard to believe that a team with Jacquizz Rodgers was one of the worst rushing teams in the US in 2010. Underachievement marked the 2010 season, especially late in the year where the Beavers lost 4 of their last 5. They will have to find a way to turn that around with Wisconsin and BYU in non-conference play because the conference schedule is brutal down the stretch and they could lose all of the last five in 2011. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Rushing game.
7. Arizona Wildcats. Arizona has a relatively soft non-conference schedule in 2011, but their second game of the season is at Oklahoma State followed by games against Stanford, Oregon, USC and Oregon State. It is not inconceivable that Arizona starts the season 1-5 and does not recover. If they do not, they could end up as the beast of the south. Playing in Tuscon will always be tough. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Brutal beginning to 2011 schedule.
8. Washington Huskies. The Huskies were impressive against Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. Now out goes Jake Locker and in come Keith Price. If the Huskies play defense all season like they did in the Holiday Bowl, 2011 looks bright. Trouble is, they didn't play like that in 2010 where they gave up 40+ points four times. On offense, the Huskies should do well, as most of the core built around Locker will be back for Price with more experience. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Defense
9. California Golden Bears. With their stadium being rebuilt, AT&T park in San Francisco will serve as the home field. This is the reason two non-conference games have yet to be announced. 2010 was not a memorable year for the Bears as Kevin Riley was injured for the last four games of the season and Brock Mansion was ineffective as a replacement. I have a feeling that Mansion will not the the starter in 2011. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding a starting quarterback.
10. UCLA Bruins. Another team with problems at quarterback and a lot of other positions is the UCLA Bruins. One bright spot was running back Johnathan Franklin who rushed for over 1,100 yards and will be back in 2011. But the Bruins need to find consistency at quarterback, something that they have not had since Kade McNown back in the 1990s. Perhaps incoming freshman Brett Hundley will be the next guy that Norm Chow tutors to greatness. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding a starting quarterback.
11. Colorado Buffaloes. Out of the frying pan and into another. The Buffs take their 5-7 record from the Big 12 north to the PAC-12 south. Things were not all bad for Colorado in 2010 as three of their five wins were against teams that eventually played in bowl games. It was likely inconsistency on defense that doomed Colorado in 2010. They gave up 52 points to Kansas who was nearly the worst offense in the nation in 2010. While they held Hawaii, one of the best offenses in the nation to 13 points. Any more than 3 wins in 2011 will be a pleasant surprise.
Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Consistency.
12. Washington State Cougars. The Palouse Cougars did not look all that improved in 2010 from 2009, but they did get to spoil the season for Oregon State. (You could say that WSU saved Oregon State's fans from enduring another Las Vegas Bowl.) Jeff Tuel boasted a 133 qb rating, but it could have been higher as he tossed 12 interceptions. How close are the Cougars to improving? Not that close, there were only two of their 11 losses were within 1 score. But the 2011 schedule has a soft beginning and Cougars could begin 2011 at 3-2 or even 4-1. That would help.
Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: You name it.
By Division:
North:
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington
California
Washington State
South:
Arizona State
Utah
USC
Arizona
UCLA
Colorado
Power Rankings.
1. Oregon Ducks. Win or lose against Auburn next week, the Ducks will return most of their offense from last season and seven starters from defense. The number 1 scoring offense from 2010 will likely continue to pour on the points and LaMichael James will be the Heisman favorite for 2011. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Remaining healthy.
Update: Oregon's weaknesses on offense were exposed by the Auburn defense in the National Championship game. However, there probably is not anyone in the PAC-12 that has the personnel to take advantage. It will be interesting to see if anyone tries to copy the schemes that Auburn used.
2. Stanford Cardinal. Stanford, as of today, only returns five starters on offense next season. If Jim Harbaugh leaves Palo Alto for the NFL, expect Andrew Luck to follow. The Cardinal have one of the best defenses in the country in 2010 and with eight returning starters, 2011 will be better. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Possible replacement of Harbaugh and Luck to go with so many losses on offense.
Update: Luck is staying but Harbaugh moves on to the 49ers. The key to the 2011 season is how well the team responds to their new coach.
3. Arizona State Sun Devils. Dennis Erickson returns starters in 21 of 22 positions for 2011. Usually returning that kind of experience will equal success, but the Devils had a few disappointments in 2010, where they were 1-4 in games decided by one score. They may have learned their lesson as special teams play costs them a chance to win at Wisconsin and USC, but made the difference against Arizona at the end of the season. Turnovers were the big culprit in their other losses. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Avoiding give-a-ways.
4. Utah Utes. The offense loses all of their key players except for quarterback Jordan Wynn who will be a junior in 2011. But the offense played very poorly toward the end of 2011 and had to take advantage of late-game turnovers to get wins against BYU and San Diego State. That kind of success is the hallmark of a Kyle Whittingham team. Building from scratch on offense may not be such a bad thing. The defense, on the other hand, has played well with seven returning starters. The schedule, while not exactly brutal, is no cake-walk but softens late in the season. The Utes should make an impression in their first PAC-12 season, but don't expect the championship game to come to Salt Lake City in 2012, although I won't be surprised if the Utes end up playing there. For some reason, the Utes avoided getting Oregon or Stanford on the schedule. 9-3 or better is a realistic possibility. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding offensive punch.
5. USC Trojans. Matt Barkley brings his 141 QB rating back for 2011 and should be very effective if he can remain healthy, in spite of losses in other key positions. The defense returns eight starters. USC was three plays from being 11-2 and one should not expect them to be 2-3 in close shaves next year and they should be improved on defense where they gave up 30+ points in six games. USC will once again be ineligible for the post season and that will have a negative impact on recruiting and replacements for player losses in key positions. It does not seem to have an effect on the star power at USC, but it will have an effect on their depth. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Replacement of players in key offensive positions.
6. Oregon State Beavers. It is hard to believe that a team with Jacquizz Rodgers was one of the worst rushing teams in the US in 2010. Underachievement marked the 2010 season, especially late in the year where the Beavers lost 4 of their last 5. They will have to find a way to turn that around with Wisconsin and BYU in non-conference play because the conference schedule is brutal down the stretch and they could lose all of the last five in 2011. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Rushing game.
7. Arizona Wildcats. Arizona has a relatively soft non-conference schedule in 2011, but their second game of the season is at Oklahoma State followed by games against Stanford, Oregon, USC and Oregon State. It is not inconceivable that Arizona starts the season 1-5 and does not recover. If they do not, they could end up as the beast of the south. Playing in Tuscon will always be tough. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Brutal beginning to 2011 schedule.
8. Washington Huskies. The Huskies were impressive against Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. Now out goes Jake Locker and in come Keith Price. If the Huskies play defense all season like they did in the Holiday Bowl, 2011 looks bright. Trouble is, they didn't play like that in 2010 where they gave up 40+ points four times. On offense, the Huskies should do well, as most of the core built around Locker will be back for Price with more experience. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Defense
9. California Golden Bears. With their stadium being rebuilt, AT&T park in San Francisco will serve as the home field. This is the reason two non-conference games have yet to be announced. 2010 was not a memorable year for the Bears as Kevin Riley was injured for the last four games of the season and Brock Mansion was ineffective as a replacement. I have a feeling that Mansion will not the the starter in 2011. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding a starting quarterback.
10. UCLA Bruins. Another team with problems at quarterback and a lot of other positions is the UCLA Bruins. One bright spot was running back Johnathan Franklin who rushed for over 1,100 yards and will be back in 2011. But the Bruins need to find consistency at quarterback, something that they have not had since Kade McNown back in the 1990s. Perhaps incoming freshman Brett Hundley will be the next guy that Norm Chow tutors to greatness. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding a starting quarterback.
11. Colorado Buffaloes. Out of the frying pan and into another. The Buffs take their 5-7 record from the Big 12 north to the PAC-12 south. Things were not all bad for Colorado in 2010 as three of their five wins were against teams that eventually played in bowl games. It was likely inconsistency on defense that doomed Colorado in 2010. They gave up 52 points to Kansas who was nearly the worst offense in the nation in 2010. While they held Hawaii, one of the best offenses in the nation to 13 points. Any more than 3 wins in 2011 will be a pleasant surprise.
Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Consistency.
12. Washington State Cougars. The Palouse Cougars did not look all that improved in 2010 from 2009, but they did get to spoil the season for Oregon State. (You could say that WSU saved Oregon State's fans from enduring another Las Vegas Bowl.) Jeff Tuel boasted a 133 qb rating, but it could have been higher as he tossed 12 interceptions. How close are the Cougars to improving? Not that close, there were only two of their 11 losses were within 1 score. But the 2011 schedule has a soft beginning and Cougars could begin 2011 at 3-2 or even 4-1. That would help.
Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: You name it.
By Division:
North:
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington
California
Washington State
South:
Arizona State
Utah
USC
Arizona
UCLA
Colorado
Mountain West Power Rankings 2010 going into 2011
This may be the last time this blog writes anything about Mountain West Football, unless they invite Utah State. 2011 will be a transition year for the MWC as BYU and Utah are gone, TCU is going; Boise State is here with Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii on the way. But some things will stay the same. The top half of the conference will be good, but the bottom half of the conference will stink.
1. TCU Horned Frogs. Andy Dalton was consistent and was the on-the-field leader that TCU needed him to be. He will make someone a good NFL team, even if he has a Steve DeBerg-type career and is also certain to be a successful head coach someday. Ed Wesley will be back next season and will take a lot of pressure off of Dalton's replacement. And the defense has been and will continue to be good as long as Gary Patterson is in Fort Worth. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Replacing Dalton.
2. Boise State Broncos. Kellen Moore and other key offensive players will be back, but others are gone. They have been consistent at recruiting and reloading and will be almost as good next season as they were this season. The difference is that they have competition in this conference and may end up with four losses if the schedule does not work in their favor. But they need to learn to consider 8-4 a successful season. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Dealing with real competition in their conference.
3. San Diego State Aztecs. I am resisting the temptation to put the Aztecs ahead of Boise State. They return their big guns on offense and have been good on defense with Rocky Long as the defensive coordinator. I believe that they will be good as long as Brady Hoke stays in San Diego, which may only be one more season. Aztec fans should learn to enjoy this while it lasts. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Remaining healthy.
Update: Brady Hoke is leaving San Diego State for Michigan. San Diego State has hired former New Mexico Coach Rocky Long as their new head coach. The tools are in place for the Aztecs to continue to win consistently.
4. Air Force Falcons. Air Force will be good early and struggle late. They had a favorable schedule in 2010 and if they end up with TCU, Boise State and San Diego State at the right time of the season, they have a good chance at a conference championship. Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark will be back for one more season. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Playing through the middle of the season when they will have Navy, Notre Dame, Army and at least one favorites in the Mountain West.
5. Colorado State Rams. The Rams were a young team in 2010, and Pete Thomas had a very good year for a Freshman with a 124.53 rating. They also have a relatively weak non-conference schedule in 2011 which should work to their favor and perhaps give them a .500 or better record. But they have to improve one of the nations worst defenses. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Defense
6. UNLV Rebels. If you are a UNLV fan, you hope that Bobby Hauck has learned the parts of the Montana Offense that simply will not work at the FBS level. Caleb Herring has had a year to learn it and will no longer have to play behind Omar Clayton. Getting a consistent running attack will be one of the primary goals in 2011. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Running game.
7. Wyoming Cowboys. The Cowboys turned a bowl season in 2009 into a 2010 what-the-heck-was-that season. Every aspect of the game took a turn for the worse in 2010. The Cowboys were one of the worst teams in the country in both offense and defense and failed to catch the little bit of magic that they had. They will need to find that spark again in 2011. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Consistency.
Update: QB Austyn Carta-Samuels has left the Wyoming football program and transferring to a Junior College. Dave Christensen has also made some staffing changes.
8. New Mexico Lobos. As of today, Mike Locksley still has a job in Albuquerque, believe it or not. The Lobos won once in 2010 and once in 2009. They may not win at all in 2011 looking at the schedule. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Dealing with rumors of coaching changes.
1. TCU Horned Frogs. Andy Dalton was consistent and was the on-the-field leader that TCU needed him to be. He will make someone a good NFL team, even if he has a Steve DeBerg-type career and is also certain to be a successful head coach someday. Ed Wesley will be back next season and will take a lot of pressure off of Dalton's replacement. And the defense has been and will continue to be good as long as Gary Patterson is in Fort Worth. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Replacing Dalton.
2. Boise State Broncos. Kellen Moore and other key offensive players will be back, but others are gone. They have been consistent at recruiting and reloading and will be almost as good next season as they were this season. The difference is that they have competition in this conference and may end up with four losses if the schedule does not work in their favor. But they need to learn to consider 8-4 a successful season. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Dealing with real competition in their conference.
3. San Diego State Aztecs. I am resisting the temptation to put the Aztecs ahead of Boise State. They return their big guns on offense and have been good on defense with Rocky Long as the defensive coordinator. I believe that they will be good as long as Brady Hoke stays in San Diego, which may only be one more season. Aztec fans should learn to enjoy this while it lasts. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Remaining healthy.
Update: Brady Hoke is leaving San Diego State for Michigan. San Diego State has hired former New Mexico Coach Rocky Long as their new head coach. The tools are in place for the Aztecs to continue to win consistently.
4. Air Force Falcons. Air Force will be good early and struggle late. They had a favorable schedule in 2010 and if they end up with TCU, Boise State and San Diego State at the right time of the season, they have a good chance at a conference championship. Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark will be back for one more season. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Playing through the middle of the season when they will have Navy, Notre Dame, Army and at least one favorites in the Mountain West.
5. Colorado State Rams. The Rams were a young team in 2010, and Pete Thomas had a very good year for a Freshman with a 124.53 rating. They also have a relatively weak non-conference schedule in 2011 which should work to their favor and perhaps give them a .500 or better record. But they have to improve one of the nations worst defenses. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Defense
6. UNLV Rebels. If you are a UNLV fan, you hope that Bobby Hauck has learned the parts of the Montana Offense that simply will not work at the FBS level. Caleb Herring has had a year to learn it and will no longer have to play behind Omar Clayton. Getting a consistent running attack will be one of the primary goals in 2011. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Running game.
7. Wyoming Cowboys. The Cowboys turned a bowl season in 2009 into a 2010 what-the-heck-was-that season. Every aspect of the game took a turn for the worse in 2010. The Cowboys were one of the worst teams in the country in both offense and defense and failed to catch the little bit of magic that they had. They will need to find that spark again in 2011. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Consistency.
Update: QB Austyn Carta-Samuels has left the Wyoming football program and transferring to a Junior College. Dave Christensen has also made some staffing changes.
8. New Mexico Lobos. As of today, Mike Locksley still has a job in Albuquerque, believe it or not. The Lobos won once in 2010 and once in 2009. They may not win at all in 2011 looking at the schedule. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Dealing with rumors of coaching changes.
WAC Power Rankings...end of 2010 going into 2011.
The transition era for the WAC begins in 2011. Boise State has moved on the the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada will be playing thier last season in the conference. There is a lot of uncertainty for 2012 and beyond and the sooner the conference can resolve those issues, the better.
1. Fresno State Bulldogs. Sure, there were some dissapointments to the Fresno State in 2010. They rolled the dice on defense on got burned a couple of times, but for the most part they were effective. There was also a close loss to Nevada. Ryan Colburn and and Robbie Rouse will be back in 2011 and this is the best chance Pat Hill will ever have at a conference title and possibly busting the BCS. If they can forget the "craps shoot" defense, they will be a tough team to beat in 2011. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Consistent defense.
2. Hawaii Warriors. In order for the run and shoot to work, you have to have some run. Hawaii surprised a lot of people in 2010 and QB Bryant Moniz deserse a lot of credit for their success. Does Hawaii have anyone in line to replace running back Alex Green? He was not spectacular, but did well enough to take the pressure off of the passing game and keep defenses honest. Hawaii will also be in the BCS busting conversation in 2011. They have a schedule that is just challenging enough, but every game will be winable. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: All shoot but no run.
3. Nevada Wolfpack. Collin Kaepernick and Vai Taua both had incredible senior seasons and Nevada had their best year since moving up to the FBS. Arguably, they were just one game away from a BCS game. It was 4 turnovers in Hawaii that cost them. Now comes the rebuilding year. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: replacing Kaepernick and Taua.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. In 2010 the Bulldogs were in only 2 games that was decided by less than a touchdown. Both of those games were losses and the Bulldogs were 2 games short of being bowl eligible this year. So what could have caused them problems in 2010? Was it the running game? Was is defense? Was it turnovers? Yes it was. For example, the Bulldogs were 4-1 when Lennon Creer got 100+ rushing yards. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Consistency.
5. Idaho Vandals. Nathan Enderle had a pretty good season in 2010 to finish a pretty good career in Idaho. But, he did not have any support from the non-existent Vandal running game. This is the main reason Idaho did not get to a bowl game in 2010. The Vandals were not last in the nation in rushing, but pretty darn close. They were also too close to the bottom on defense as well. Biggest potential 2011 obstable: Running game.
6. Utah State Aggies. Utah State beat BYU for the first time in 10 years, and then they quit on the rest of the season. Sure, this may seem like a successful season after the most futile decade in school history, but on the other hand, it looked like a lot of wasted potential. They almost beat Oklahoma and they almost beat Nevada, but these are still losses. The week after beating BYU, USU ran up a 195 yards of total offense and two field goals against Louisiana Tech, who is not exactly a defensive power. Defining success on beating one rival and two almost victories is part of the culture that Gary Anderson has to change in Logan. He still has his work cut out for him. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Replacing Diondre Borel.
7. New Mexico State Aggies. I still believe that Dewayne Walker has great potential as a head football coach. Too bad he chose to begin his head coaching career in Las Cruces. In 2011 NM State had one of the most futile offenses in college football and were constantly appearing in ESPN's bottom 10. The good news is that they were not the worst team in the New Mexico. In 2011, getting four wins would be a good improvement. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Self belief.
8. San Jose State Spartans. Lamon Muldrow's touchdown late against Southern Utah was the only thing that kept SJSU from the golden donut in 2011. At least the passing game wasn't all that bad. Jordan La Secla finished with a respectable 125.84 rating and 2860 yards. There is no where to go from here but up. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Replacing La Secla
1. Fresno State Bulldogs. Sure, there were some dissapointments to the Fresno State in 2010. They rolled the dice on defense on got burned a couple of times, but for the most part they were effective. There was also a close loss to Nevada. Ryan Colburn and and Robbie Rouse will be back in 2011 and this is the best chance Pat Hill will ever have at a conference title and possibly busting the BCS. If they can forget the "craps shoot" defense, they will be a tough team to beat in 2011. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Consistent defense.
2. Hawaii Warriors. In order for the run and shoot to work, you have to have some run. Hawaii surprised a lot of people in 2010 and QB Bryant Moniz deserse a lot of credit for their success. Does Hawaii have anyone in line to replace running back Alex Green? He was not spectacular, but did well enough to take the pressure off of the passing game and keep defenses honest. Hawaii will also be in the BCS busting conversation in 2011. They have a schedule that is just challenging enough, but every game will be winable. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: All shoot but no run.
3. Nevada Wolfpack. Collin Kaepernick and Vai Taua both had incredible senior seasons and Nevada had their best year since moving up to the FBS. Arguably, they were just one game away from a BCS game. It was 4 turnovers in Hawaii that cost them. Now comes the rebuilding year. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: replacing Kaepernick and Taua.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. In 2010 the Bulldogs were in only 2 games that was decided by less than a touchdown. Both of those games were losses and the Bulldogs were 2 games short of being bowl eligible this year. So what could have caused them problems in 2010? Was it the running game? Was is defense? Was it turnovers? Yes it was. For example, the Bulldogs were 4-1 when Lennon Creer got 100+ rushing yards. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Consistency.
5. Idaho Vandals. Nathan Enderle had a pretty good season in 2010 to finish a pretty good career in Idaho. But, he did not have any support from the non-existent Vandal running game. This is the main reason Idaho did not get to a bowl game in 2010. The Vandals were not last in the nation in rushing, but pretty darn close. They were also too close to the bottom on defense as well. Biggest potential 2011 obstable: Running game.
6. Utah State Aggies. Utah State beat BYU for the first time in 10 years, and then they quit on the rest of the season. Sure, this may seem like a successful season after the most futile decade in school history, but on the other hand, it looked like a lot of wasted potential. They almost beat Oklahoma and they almost beat Nevada, but these are still losses. The week after beating BYU, USU ran up a 195 yards of total offense and two field goals against Louisiana Tech, who is not exactly a defensive power. Defining success on beating one rival and two almost victories is part of the culture that Gary Anderson has to change in Logan. He still has his work cut out for him. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Replacing Diondre Borel.
7. New Mexico State Aggies. I still believe that Dewayne Walker has great potential as a head football coach. Too bad he chose to begin his head coaching career in Las Cruces. In 2011 NM State had one of the most futile offenses in college football and were constantly appearing in ESPN's bottom 10. The good news is that they were not the worst team in the New Mexico. In 2011, getting four wins would be a good improvement. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Self belief.
8. San Jose State Spartans. Lamon Muldrow's touchdown late against Southern Utah was the only thing that kept SJSU from the golden donut in 2011. At least the passing game wasn't all that bad. Jordan La Secla finished with a respectable 125.84 rating and 2860 yards. There is no where to go from here but up. Biggest potential 2011 obstacle: Replacing La Secla
Big Sky Power Rankings...2010 going into 2011.
There is one game pending in the Big Sky Conference, but I feel confident in the rankings at the end of 2010. They should be the same going into 2011 unless some players leave early to go pro. This rarely happens in the FCS, but there is one exception this season.
1. Eastern Washington Eagles. Unless Taiwan Jones leaves for the NFL, I do not see a reason why EWU will not be the favorite in 2011. Bo Levi Mitchell has proven to be both a quality and capable quarterback and the defense has been solid enough to win games. Plus, the schedule in 2011 will favor the Eagles. Winning the National Championship next week will simply be a big bonus. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: The possible early exit of Taiwan Jones.
2. Montana State Bobcats. They return a young team from 2010 that will be a veteran team in 2011. The only regret from 2010 was not getting deeper into the playoffs. They return McGhee and all of their other stars that made them so difficult to beat last year. I doubt that the power in the Treasure State has permanently shifted east, but the better team in Big Sky Country next season will be the one in Bozeman. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding consistency.
Update: RB Orenzo Davis has been suspended by the NCAA and declared ineligible for the 2011 season. This hurts the Bobcats chances for offensive consistency in 2011.
3. Weber State Wildcats. In Flagstaff, Weber State proved that there will be life after Cameron Higgins. Their team leader on defense, Nick Webb will be back and they will be a hard team to score against. As long as Ron McBride can establish a running game and let the defense rest, Weber State will be a hard team to beat. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Establishing a running game.
4. Montana Grizzlies. The season did not finish well in 2010 and there are more questions in 2011. Besides, the Grizz open the season at Neyland Stadium against the Volunteers. If they do not get beat up too badly, they will likely be a stronger team next year. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Dealing with rebuilding.
5. Sacramento State Hornets. This program does not have enough clout to rock the boat they way they have been doing off of the field. Even though they made some noise last season, the Big Sky is a tough conference and there are no Miss Congeniality bowl games at this level of college football. The Hornets played well enough to finish 10-1 in 2010 and came up just short four times settling for 6-5. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: Finishing close games.
6. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. If NAU can ever figure out how to finish a season, they may have more respect than they have right now. 2010 looked good for a while, but losses down the stetch to Sacramento State and Weber State cost the Lumberjacks a chance at the playoffs. Likely it was inconsistency on defense that doomed the Jacks in 2010. For example, they held the mighty pistol offense of Portland State to their lowest output in an FCS game, but gave up 40 to Sacramento State. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: Playing consistent football throughout the season.
7. Portland State Vikings. The Pistol is a success in Portland. The Vikings will score a ton of points next year, but still need to have the defense that will keep the opposition off the board. The Vikings gave up an average of 32 points to FCS opponents in 2010 and that includes holding Idaho State to a solitary field goal. You don't win a lot if you give up 32 points per game. The Vikings will be back at PGE park in 2011. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: Defense.
8. Northern Colorado Bears. Every season they make strides, but continue to not gain any ground in the Big Sky Conference. Sooner or later, they will find the right combination. The Bears finished 2010 at 3-8, but were oh-so-close to 7-4. Here is another team, like Sacramento State, that needs to figure out how to finish some close games. Part of the reason for losing those close games was not being able to caplitalize on opportunities. For example, Weber State gave up 6 fumbles in that 4 overtime game, but NCU only scored 13 points off of those turnovers. Biggest potential obstacle of 2011: Finishing games.
9. Idaho State Bengals. Not much can be said about the 2010 season other than thank goodness it is over. There will be a new coach in Pocatello this season, but it could be more of the same for a long time. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: New coaching style.
1. Eastern Washington Eagles. Unless Taiwan Jones leaves for the NFL, I do not see a reason why EWU will not be the favorite in 2011. Bo Levi Mitchell has proven to be both a quality and capable quarterback and the defense has been solid enough to win games. Plus, the schedule in 2011 will favor the Eagles. Winning the National Championship next week will simply be a big bonus. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: The possible early exit of Taiwan Jones.
2. Montana State Bobcats. They return a young team from 2010 that will be a veteran team in 2011. The only regret from 2010 was not getting deeper into the playoffs. They return McGhee and all of their other stars that made them so difficult to beat last year. I doubt that the power in the Treasure State has permanently shifted east, but the better team in Big Sky Country next season will be the one in Bozeman. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Finding consistency.
Update: RB Orenzo Davis has been suspended by the NCAA and declared ineligible for the 2011 season. This hurts the Bobcats chances for offensive consistency in 2011.
3. Weber State Wildcats. In Flagstaff, Weber State proved that there will be life after Cameron Higgins. Their team leader on defense, Nick Webb will be back and they will be a hard team to score against. As long as Ron McBride can establish a running game and let the defense rest, Weber State will be a hard team to beat. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Establishing a running game.
4. Montana Grizzlies. The season did not finish well in 2010 and there are more questions in 2011. Besides, the Grizz open the season at Neyland Stadium against the Volunteers. If they do not get beat up too badly, they will likely be a stronger team next year. Biggest potential obstacle for 2011: Dealing with rebuilding.
5. Sacramento State Hornets. This program does not have enough clout to rock the boat they way they have been doing off of the field. Even though they made some noise last season, the Big Sky is a tough conference and there are no Miss Congeniality bowl games at this level of college football. The Hornets played well enough to finish 10-1 in 2010 and came up just short four times settling for 6-5. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: Finishing close games.
6. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. If NAU can ever figure out how to finish a season, they may have more respect than they have right now. 2010 looked good for a while, but losses down the stetch to Sacramento State and Weber State cost the Lumberjacks a chance at the playoffs. Likely it was inconsistency on defense that doomed the Jacks in 2010. For example, they held the mighty pistol offense of Portland State to their lowest output in an FCS game, but gave up 40 to Sacramento State. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: Playing consistent football throughout the season.
7. Portland State Vikings. The Pistol is a success in Portland. The Vikings will score a ton of points next year, but still need to have the defense that will keep the opposition off the board. The Vikings gave up an average of 32 points to FCS opponents in 2010 and that includes holding Idaho State to a solitary field goal. You don't win a lot if you give up 32 points per game. The Vikings will be back at PGE park in 2011. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: Defense.
8. Northern Colorado Bears. Every season they make strides, but continue to not gain any ground in the Big Sky Conference. Sooner or later, they will find the right combination. The Bears finished 2010 at 3-8, but were oh-so-close to 7-4. Here is another team, like Sacramento State, that needs to figure out how to finish some close games. Part of the reason for losing those close games was not being able to caplitalize on opportunities. For example, Weber State gave up 6 fumbles in that 4 overtime game, but NCU only scored 13 points off of those turnovers. Biggest potential obstacle of 2011: Finishing games.
9. Idaho State Bengals. Not much can be said about the 2010 season other than thank goodness it is over. There will be a new coach in Pocatello this season, but it could be more of the same for a long time. Biggest potential obstacle in 2011: New coaching style.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)