Let's be realistic. Other than Notre Dame joining the Big 10, don't take a lot of stock in the big and wild conference expansion rumors. The Big 10 may have enough pull to attract Nebraska or Missouri out of the Big XII, but on the other hand, the Big XII has the pull to get Iowa and maybe Indiana out of the Big 10. There are four power conferences which will not loose anyone, because they have the power to counter each-other. The Big 10, Big XII, SEC and PAC-10 will, at worst, these four keep all of their current members.
I'm sure this is what the Big XII commissioner meant when he said the conference would protect it's assets. It may be a hint at a Pac-Man strategy to keep the conference in tact as it is. PAC-10 comes after Colorado, the Big XII goes after Arizona State. The SEC goes after Texas, the Big XII goes after LSU. Therefore, I do not take a lot of stock in these types of rumors.
What conferences are under real threat of the expansion of others? The Big East, Mountain West, WAC, Conference USA, MAC and Sun Belt. These conferences do not have the ability to ward off expansion threats because they are not strong enough. Some are stronger than others. The ACC, for example, my lose Florida State and Miami to the SEC, but will raid the Big East. The conference pecking order is as follows:
1. Big 10, SEC, Big XII and Pac-10
2. ACC and Mountain West
3. Big East and WAC
4. C-USA
5. MAC and Sun Belt
6. FCS Conferences.
For example, The Pac-10 takes Utah from the MWC, who takes Boise State out of the WAC, who takes North Texas from the Sun Belt.
Next Point. We already know that a 16 team conference will not work. We also know that traveling too far for conference games will not work either. These were two of the three things that killed the 16-member WAC. The other was the loss of traditional rivals. The Big 10 may add Rutgers, and make a lot of money, but it would lose a lot of that revenue in travel costs. You would have to think that this is not likely to happen. When a conference expands, it has to take these things into consideration: Don't get too large, don't rack up travel costs, and kill traditional rivals. Therefore, forget about Rutgers to the Big 10.
A fourteen team conference will work, if you can find a way to keep travel costs down and keep traditional rivals together.
Who are the real targets for each conference considering these parameters? In order, they are:
Real Big 10 expansion targets: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville.
Big XII expansion targets: TCU, Houston, Utah, Brigham Young, Tulsa and Memphis.
SEC expansion targets: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
PAC-10 expansion targets: Utah, BYU, San Diego State, Fresno State, Hawaii and Boise State.
ACC expansion targets: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Syracuse and Rutgers.
Mountain West expansion targets: Boise State, Fresno State, Houston, Tulsa, UTEP and Hawaii. FCS promotion possibility: Cal Poly
Big East expansion targets: East Carolina, Central Florida, Southern Mississippi, Army and Navy. FCS promotion possibilities: Villanova and Georgetown (Big East basketball members).
WAC expansion targets: UTEP, North Texas, Louisiana Lafayette and Louisiana Monroe. FCS promotion possibilities: Montana, Montana State, Cal Poly, San Diego, Sacramento State, Cal Davis and Portland State.
C-USA and Sun Belt could merge. FCS promotion possibilities: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, SF Austin, Texas State and Texas A&M San Marcos.
No comments:
Post a Comment