Monday, January 2, 2023

Where The Major Sports Leagues Will Next Expand and/or Move

List of largest markets without sports teams in each of the 5 top-tier leagues in the United State.  *Denotes a city where a franchise was once located but either moved or folded.

Largest 10 US Metros without Major League Soccer

1. Detroit
2. Phoenix
3. Cleveland
4. San Diego
5. Tampa/St. Petersburg* (Tampa Bay Mutiny folded in 2001)
6. Sacramento
7. Pittsburgh
8. San Antonio
9. Indianapolis
10. Las Vegas

Las Vegas is larger than:

Cincinnati
Nashville--Now the smallest market for Major League Soccer

Note: No Canadian Cities without Major League Soccer are large enough to appear to this list.  

MLS is currently at 29 teams.  A planned expansion to Sacramento fell through during the pandemic.  My hunch is that Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego and/or San Antonio are next to bring the league to 32 teams.  

Largest 10 US Markets without Major League Baseball

1. Orlando
2. Portland
3. Charlotte
4. Salt Lake City
5. Sacramento
6. San Antonio
7. Austin
8. Columbus
9. Indianapolis
10. Las Vegas

Las Vegas is larger than:

Cincinnati--Now the smallest market for Major League Baseball

Note: If Canadian cities were included, Montreal, home of the Expos until 2004, would be the largest city on this list.

Baseball has said they will not discuss expansion until stadiums in Oakland and Tampa are worked out.  Tampa really would not have to move very far if they use Orlando as a stopping off point.  Nashville, which is not large enough to make this list is making a bid for the Rays.  Charlotte would also work. It appears, however, that the Rays will find a way to stay put. 

Many assume the A's will head to Las Vegas, but there are better cities on this list.  But from what I can tell, the A's to Vegas is about 80% a done deal.  The site planned for the stadium will work, there is an intermediate venue plan.  But there are infrastructure issues like a plan for traffic, parking and sewer and water systems  There are better markets. Portland has an aging old mall east of the Rose district that would make a great site for a new stadium and should be the more logical next city for the A's.  Sacramento would also work.  Salt Lake City has a sports fanatic with tons of money to throw around.

As for expansion, my guess for the next baseball cities would be Charlotte and Salt Lake should the A's land in Portland and the Rays go inland.  San Antonio and Austin are also promising baseball cities.

Largest 10 US Markets without the National Footba1l League

1. Orlando
2. Portland
3. San Diego* (Chargers moved to Los Angeles in 2017)
4. St. Louis* (Rams moved to Los Angeles in 2016)
5. Salt Lake City
6. Sacramento
7. San Antonio*** (San Antonio was the temporary home of the New Orleans Saints in 2005 for 3 games)
8. Austin
9. Columbus
10. Raleigh

Raleigh is larger than:

Jacksonville
New Orleans
Buffalo
Green Bay--Now the smallest market for the National Football League

Many want to see the NFL expand to London.  Logistically this will not work unless an entire division can be located in Europe.  Teams are now chartering two airplanes when they travel.  Travel to London for 8 teams every year will be expensive.  A division in Europe would solve logistical issues for nearly half the season.

Giving San Diego and St Louis teams again I think is the next logical step if the NFL decides to expand.  San Antonio, Austin and Columbus would also work very well for future NFL franchises.

Largest 10 US Markets without the National Basketball Association

1. Seattle* (Sonics moved to Oklahoma City in 2008)
2. Tampa/St. Petersburg*** (St. Petersburg was the temporary home of the Toronto Raptors in 2020-21)
3. San Diego* (Clippers moved to Los Angeles in 1984)
4. St. Louis* (Hawks moved to Atlanta in 1968)
5. Pittsburgh** (ABA Pittsburgh Condors folded in 1972)
6. Austin
7. Columbus
8. Kansas City* (Kings moved to Sacramento in 1985)
9. Las Vegas
10. Cincinnati* (Royals moved to Kansas City/Omaha in 1972.  Team is now the Sacramento Kings.)

Cincinnati is larger than

Milwaukee
Oklahoma City
Memphis
New Orleans--Now the smallest market in the National Basketball Association

The next two cities for NBA expansion seem logical to me...Seattle and Tampa.  There is a push to put a team in Louisville, but as you can see, there are a lot of teams without basketball that are larger than Louisville.  Austin and Columbus would be very nice NBA cities.  Virginia Beach, which is also not large enough to be on this list could also be a good place for the NBA to land.  

However, many are starting to think the 82 game season is too long, there is too much tanking and there are other issues that the NBA has to work out first before expanding.  Once the NBA figures out their scheduling problems, then they can work on expansion.

Largest 10 US Markets without the National Hockey League

1. Houston
2. Atlanta* (Flames moved to Calgary in 1980. Thrashers moved to Winnipeg in 2011.)
3. Orlando
4. Cleveland** (Barons folded in 1978)
5. Portland
6. Charlotte
7. Salt Lake City
8. Sacramento
9. San Antonio
10. Austin

Austin is larger than

Columbus
Las Vegas
Raleigh
Nashville
Buffalo-->The smallest US city with an NHL team.
Ottawa
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg--Now the smallest market in the National Hockey League

Note: The largest Canadian cities not on this are not large enough to appear on this list.

If Canada gets another team, I think a 2nd team in Toronto is the most logical place.  It would be more likely to succeed than Quebec City or Hamilton.  

The situation with the Coyotes needs to be solved before expansion in the US is considered.  Kansas City is often mentioned in Hockey expansion articles, but they do not make this list.  It's not that Kansas City is a bad sports town.  I think the NHL moving the Coyotes to Kansas City would be a good move.  Not all of the cities are good for hockey. These cities, except for Cleveland, are simply growing faster than KC. San Antonio and Austin do not appear to be hockey towns.  Same with Orlando.  Portland and Salt Lake City appear to be the next best targets for Hockey beyond Houston.  If baseball beats hockey to Salt Lake, then Sacramento would be a good place.

Markets with multiple teams in the same league

New York
MLS: NYFC, New York Red Bulls
MLB: New York Yankees, New York Mets
NBA: New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets
NFL: New York Giants, New York Jets
NHL: New York Rangers, New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils

Los Angeles
MLS: Los Angeles Galaxy, LAFC
MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angels Angels
NBA: Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers
NFL: Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers
NHL: Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks

Washington/Baltimore
MLB: Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
NFL: Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens

Chicago
MLB: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox

San Francisco/San Jose/Oakland
MLB: San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics

Largest 20 Markets without any major sports franchises

1. Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Newport News, Virginia
2. Greensboro/Winston-Salem, North Carolina
3. Providence, Rhode Island
4. Richmond, Virginia
5. Louisville, Kentucky
6. Greenville, South Carolina
7. Hartford, Connecticut
8. Grand Rapids, Michigan
9. Birmingham, Alabama
10. Fresno, California
11. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
12. Fort Meyers, Florida
13. Albany, New York
14. Rochester, New York
15. Knoxville, Tennessee
16. Albuquerque, New Mexico
17. Tulsa, Oklahoma
18. Tucson, Arizona
19. El Paso, Texas
20. Sarasota, Florida

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