Friday, October 30, 2020

The Millers Sold the Jazz--Commentary

For those of you have have been living under a rock the past 24 hours, here is the big news here in Utah.  The Miller family sold the Utah Jazz.  This is why it is big news in the Beehive State.  The Miller Family put the team in a family trust 3 years ago.  The purpose of the trust was the keep the team in Utah...forever.

They feel this was accomplished this goal in selling the team to Ryan Smith, a life-long Utahan and basketball fan.  It will be interesting to see what he does with the team.  Most people are hoping that the quality of play will improve.  It will also show the rest of the basketball world that Utah is a different place than it was 35 years ago.  There are more people here and more money to be made.  It is also a much more diverse place than it used to be.  This should attract higher quality role players.  The kind that would have won Karl Malone and John Stockton a championship.

This may have come as a shock when the news first broke. It makes sense now.  The Millers other businesses have suffered during the pandemic.  Their theaters don't see crowds, and they sell very few cars compared to what they used to sell.  The car business is starting to rebound.  They money will give them liquidity to keep the movie theaters afloat until people feel safe to see movies in theaters again. 

However, this makes me wonder.  If the Miller family can sell the Jazz, any team owner can sell right now.  One thought, or rumor, is the Memphis Grizzlies moving to Seattle.  But other people have called this, to censor it in a more mild form, hogwash.  

The pandemic has hit everyone in the sports world hard.  If it has been unequal, it is because of the businesses outside of sports that the owners are involved in.  For Gail Miller, the pandemic was probably the perfect storm.  Other owners may profit from the pandemic, but only if they are lucky.  Most do not make their finances public.  If you are buying you can't find listings for sports franchises on Craigslist.  These are quite often over-the-fence transactions. We likely won't know who is selling until the news breaks. 

As far a sports franchises moving, there will be different reasons other than a sweetheart stadium deal in the next city.  Public finances are going to be tight and highly debated for the rest of the decade.  Sure, a city may float a sweet new stadium deal, but if it is publicly financed, expect a voter backlash.  Even more so than usual.  Those sweet deals are going to be on the back-burner for a few years.  What I expect instead is for cities to bend over backwards and help cut the red tape and make privately financed venues easier to build.  This will be more true as office buildings become vacant due to home offices become the preferred place for people to work.

I think we will see a few franchise moves as a result of owners selling.  This will be unavoidable.  What may happen will likely be a surprise.  Some might be pleasant.  Some will be no-so-dandy.  The city and fans losing the team will be upset.  The city and fans gaining the team will be pleased.  As difficult as the Great Depression and Second World War were for the sports world, no team moved until 1954 when the St. Louis Browns became the Baltimore Orioles.  I hope that will be the case and that no team will move because of the pandemic.  

Some have said that leagues may offer expansion as a way to raise money.  But we have a name in sports history for leagues that have done this...defunct.  This is what happened to the old North American Soccer League.  Baseball took 15 years after the end of the second world war to warm up to expansion.  Sports leagues should consider expansion because cities outside of the current footprint are growing.  But never for the sole purpose to raise money.  Prospective franchise owners are going to be wary of spending money on a sports franchise before the dust from the pandemic settles.  This is not the panacea that it initially appears to be.  Some leagues may contract as a result of the pandemic, instead of expanding.

There will be a few other things that will happen as a result of 2020.  We know that the NFL team in Washington is changing their name.  In 2021, the baseball team in Cleveland will have a new name as well.  I expect that the Atlanta Braves and Golden State Warriors will get new names...eventually.  I also expect that the Kansas City Chiefs will change their imaging to not reflect Native American imagery and will play in Lamar Hunt Stadium instead of the now named Arrowhead Stadium.  This makes sense to me now. 

Sports will change in other ways that will make sense once we accept the change.  Hopefully we embrace the changes.

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Four Weeks Remain...Updated Prediction

Three weeks ago, I had Biden winning 320 electoral votes, with an over/under of 55.  Meaning, anywhere between a vary narrow Trump victory to a Biden landslide.  

Today, I am changing my prediction to 359 for Biden, 179 for Trump, with Biden winning a potential of another 48 electoral votes and Trump perhaps winning another 25.  That would be Biden winning with anywhere between 334 and 407.  Meaning anywhere from a Biden small victory to a Biden landslide.

I know many of my readers will call me a liberal...or most likely worse.  However, I think I am being generous for Trump.  The RCP no-Tossup Map has 374 for Biden and 164 for Trump.  I gave Trump North Carolina.

The reason for this change is the way that Trump behaved once he got the virus.  It is at best negligent and may make him civilly liable.

Biden would be doing better if he had avoided stooping to Trump's level during the debate.  If he had been the adult in the room, he could run the rest of the election from his basement.

I have to ask the question to Donald Trump...do you want to lose an election?  Because this is how you lose an election.  Many people are voting early, indicating a strong desire for change.  A low turnout supports the status quo.  Donald Trump might be able to brag that he won more votes in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016.  That will not carry much weight.

It is likely not going to be a good night for Republicans on election night.  But it will be far from a complete disaster.

This will, however, by no means be a record night.  Although this could be a record night for a Democratic party candidate challenging an incumbent Republican.  Biden will not push 500 electoral votes.  My feeling is that a strong push from a 3rd party candidate like Jo Johansen might push Biden into the mid-400s, but still not quite Reagan's 489 (vs an incumbent) in 1980.

It has been 52 years since a 3rd Party candidate won a single state.  It will be at least another 4.  But if your looking to make money on a bet, bet that Jo Johansen wins at least one state. 

The Dems may win a 1 or 2 seat majority in the Senate.  I predict a minor change in favor of the Democrats in the House.  I still predict that Jim Clyburn will become the first African American Speaker of the House.  Patty Murray is now my prediction to become the Senate Majority Leader.

I am also going to make a prediction for 2024.

It will be Kamala Harris/ Tammy Baldwin vs. Nikki Haley/ Joni Ernst.  That's right, not a single Y Chromosome for the two major parties. We'll see.

What do you think?