In college football, the Monday after the last day of the football season is known as Black Monday. It is the day that most college coaches who are going to get fired will lose their jobs. This happens quickly because the battle for new recruits begins after the season ends. If you do not have a coach, you could lose out. According to Coaches Hot Seat, as many as 30 coaches could lose their jobs this week. However, usually less than 10 do.
I do not expect any changes in Utah's head coaches, but it could happen. I don't see any higher than a 15% chance that any coach in Utah will leave. However, after last season, I thought that Bronco Mendenhall had a 90% chance of remaining, yet he surprised almost everyone.
From Most to Least Likely
Utah's Kyle Whittingham
Impressions on the his job status: Many fans are disappointed in how the season came to an end, losing 3 of the last 4. However, I don't see anyone with credibility calling for Whit to step aside.
Reason he would leave: Greener pastures, however I do not see him leaving Utah for another college like Notre Dame. But the NFL may come calling.
Possible next job: NFL Head Coach
Reason he will stay: Dr. Chris Hill will pull out all of the stops to keep KW where he is, as he has before. There are many jobs that pay more than he makes in Utah, and his name has been linked to other openings in the past, but he has remained in Utah.
Chances he will leave: No higher than 15%<10 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:
1. Stanford DC Lance Anderson: Successful. Recruits in Utah. Familiar with the Conference.
2. Oregon State HC Gary Anderson: Maybe this was the job he's been after all along
3. Utah DC Morgan Scalley: Long time, true blooded Ute who is paying his dues. Perhaps it is time for him to cash in.
4. Utah State HC Matt Wells: Last year he was at the top of this list. He's lost some luster after this last season.
5. Weber State HC Jay Hill: Former Utah assistant who is working miracles up the road.
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<10 p="">Conclusion: KW will likely retire as the coach of the Utes in 5-10 years.
Weber State HC Jay Hill
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<10 p="">Impressions on his job security: Weber State made the playoffs just 3 years removed from 3 consecutive 2 win seasons. The short turn around has been remarkable.
Reason he would leave: Look at what he has done in 3 short years in Ogden. He has to be on some short lists.
Reason he would stay: Wife is ill. Not a good time for his family to make a job change, especially if it involves a change in location. Utah or Utah State, maybe. Anywhere else, probably not.
Possible next job: FBS, G5, Head Coach
Chances he will leave: Less than 10%<10 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:
1. Weber State OC Fesi Sitake: Popular with the team. Good recruiter.
2. Weber State AHC Brent Meyers: Would be a good choice to continue what Hill has done
3. Weber State STC Colton Swan: Been in Ogden for a long time, would provide consistency
4. Weber State DC Jason Kafusi: Been in the state a long time. Good recruiting connections
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<10 p=""><10 p="">Conclusion: Jay will eventually coach at the FBS level, but will be at Weber another 2-3 years.
Utah State HC Matt Wells
Reason he would leave: Can't think of a reason he would leave right now. If USU had a winning season, Wells would be a hotter commodity at another school. Considering the inconsistency he has had in his staff, seeing Wells in a lesser light because of this season would be a mistake, but that is the way life is in college football. Wells, so far, has been this most successful coach at USU since Phil Krueger. There is no reason for USU to let him go.
Reason he would stay: After a losing season, has a chip on his shoulder, something to prove. Lost some of his luster after a losing season.
Possible next job: Head coach for a Power 5 program.
Chances he will leave: Less than 5%<1 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:
1. Weber State HC Jay Hill: Again, look at what Hill has done in Ogden in 3 years.
2. Utah DC Morgan Scalley: The guy has paid his dues and is perhaps ready to be a head coach. May not get the chance in Salt Lake City
3. BYU AHC Ed Lamb: Lamb was successful at SUU. Considered "the glue" in BYU's coaching staff. Not being LDS, Lamb will never be the head coach at BYU.
4. Wyoming OC Brent Vigen: Laramie is a tough place to be successful...need I say more
5. Someone on the USU staff
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<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: At least 1-2 more years of Matt Wells at Utah State.
BYU HC Kalani Sitake
Reason he would leave: BYU can't match a P5 salary, and many G5 programs...that is why Kalani got the job in the first place.
Reason he would stay: He is just getting started and has yet to prove himself. Likely little interest in from other programs. Likely little interest he would have in pursuing another job. And as far as losing his job, no one fires a head coach after an 8-win season unless they really mess up.
Possible next job: PAC-12 Head Coach, NFL Head Coach
Chances he will leave: Less than 1%
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Short list of possible replacements:
1. (Popular choice) OC Ty Detmer: There would be cheers from many in Cougarland, even though Ty has only 1 year as a coodinator under his belt.
2. DC Iliasa Tuiaki: The more I see of Tuiaki, the more I like him. I think many in Provo see it the same way. In a few years, he may surpass Detmer as Sitake's heir apparent. He will be a head coach sooner or later somewhere.
3. Weber State HC Jay Hill: See above
4. Utah Co-OC Aaron Roderick: Why not bring another prodigal son home?
5. Snow College HC Britt Maughan: He we the dark horse when Mendenhall left. Could be the dark horse again.
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<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: Kalani may not finish his career in Provo, but it will be at least 5 years before he goes somewhere else.
SUU Head Coach Demario Warren
Reason he would leave: It actually pays better to be an FBS coordinator than and FCS head coach.
Reason he would stay: Like Sitake, Warren is new at this and needs another season or two to get his feet under him.
Chances he will leave: Almost infinitesimal
Possible next job: Defense coordinator at an FBS school.
Short list of possible replacements:
1. Utah assistant Justin Ena: He was in Cedar City for a number of years. It's familiar territory for him and SUU
2. An assistant, but not a coordinator, at any school in Utah
3. An SUU assistant
4. An assistant from another Big Sky School
5. A successful Division II head coach
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<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: Demario Warren will be in Cedar City for a few more years.
High profile jobs that have already been filled:
Ed Orgeron-LSU
Tom Herman-Texas
Jeff Tedford-Fresno State
Likely and/or Current Openings (According to Coaches Hot Seat, which isn't the best source)
Notre Dame (Coach Brian Kelly has resigned)
Arizona
Texas Tech
Oregon
Boston College
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Texas A&M
San Jose State
Coaches on the hot seat who may get one more year
Chris Ash-Rutgers
Gary Anderson-Oregon State
Bret Beilema-Arkansas
Tony Sachez-UNLV
Jim Mora-UCLA
PAC-12 coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season other than KW:
Probably none.
MWC head coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season:
1. Wyoming HC Craig Bohl
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">2. San Diego State HC Rocky Long
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">3. Boise State HC Bryan Harsin
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">4. New Mexico HC Bob Davie
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<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Big Sky Conference head coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season:
1. Eastern Washington HC Beau Baldwin
2. Cal Poly HC Tim Walsh
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">3. North Dakota HC Bubba Schweigert
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">4. Weber State HC Jay Hill
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