If Utah Coaches Leave this Year--2016 Edition

In college football, the Monday after the last day of the football season is known as Black Monday.  It is the day that most college coaches who are going to get fired will lose their jobs.  This happens quickly because the battle for new recruits begins after the season ends.  If you do not have a coach, you could lose out.  According to Coaches Hot Seat, as many as 30 coaches could lose their jobs this week.  However, usually less than 10 do.

I do not expect any changes in Utah's head coaches, but it could happen.  I don't see any higher than a 15% chance that any coach in Utah will leave.  However, after last season, I thought that Bronco Mendenhall had a 90% chance of remaining, yet he surprised almost everyone.

From Most to Least Likely

Utah's Kyle Whittingham

Impressions on the his job status:  Many fans are disappointed in how the season came to an end, losing 3 of the last 4.  However, I don't see anyone with credibility calling for Whit to step aside.

Reason he would leave:  Greener pastures, however I do not see him leaving Utah for another college like Notre Dame.  But the NFL may come calling.

Possible next job: NFL Head Coach

Reason he will stay: Dr. Chris Hill will pull out all of the stops to keep KW where he is, as he has before.  There are many jobs that pay more than he makes in Utah, and his name has been linked to other openings in the past, but he has remained in Utah.

Chances he will leave: No higher than 15%<10 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Stanford DC Lance Anderson: Successful.  Recruits in Utah.  Familiar with the Conference.
2.  Oregon State HC Gary Anderson: Maybe this was the job he's been after all along
3.  Utah DC Morgan Scalley: Long time, true blooded Ute who is paying his dues.  Perhaps it is time for him to cash in.
4.  Utah State HC Matt Wells: Last year he was at the top of this list.  He's lost some luster after this last season.
5.  Weber State HC Jay Hill: Former Utah assistant who is working miracles up the road.
<10 p="">
<10 p="">Conclusion: KW will likely retire as the coach of the Utes in 5-10 years.

Weber State HC Jay Hill
<10 p="">
<10 p="">Impressions on his job security: Weber State made the playoffs just 3 years removed from 3 consecutive 2 win seasons.  The short turn around has been remarkable.

Reason he would leave: Look at what he has done in 3 short years in Ogden.  He has to be on some short lists.

Reason he would stay: Wife is ill.  Not a good time for his family to make a job change, especially if it involves a change in location.  Utah or Utah State, maybe.  Anywhere else, probably not.

Possible next job: FBS, G5, Head Coach

Chances he will leave: Less than 10%<10 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Weber State OC Fesi Sitake: Popular with the team.  Good recruiter.
2.  Weber State AHC Brent Meyers: Would be a good choice to continue what Hill has done
3.  Weber State STC Colton Swan: Been in Ogden for a long time, would provide consistency
4.  Weber State DC Jason Kafusi: Been in the state a long time.  Good recruiting connections
<10 p=""><10 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p="">Conclusion: Jay will eventually coach at the FBS level, but will be at Weber another 2-3 years.

Utah State HC Matt Wells

Reason he would leave: Can't think of a reason he would leave right now.  If USU had a winning season, Wells would be a hotter commodity at another school.  Considering the inconsistency he has had in his staff, seeing Wells in a lesser light because of this season would be a mistake, but that is the way life is in college football.  Wells, so far, has been this most successful coach at USU since Phil Krueger.  There is no reason for USU to let him go.

Reason he would stay: After a losing season, has a chip on his shoulder, something to prove.  Lost some of his luster after a losing season.

Possible next job: Head coach for a Power 5 program.

Chances he will leave: Less than 5%<1 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Weber State HC Jay Hill:  Again, look at what Hill has done in Ogden in 3 years.
2.  Utah DC Morgan Scalley: The guy has paid his dues and is perhaps ready to be a head coach.  May not get the chance in Salt Lake City
3.  BYU AHC Ed Lamb: Lamb was successful at SUU.  Considered "the glue" in BYU's coaching staff.  Not being LDS, Lamb will never be the head coach at BYU.
4.  Wyoming OC Brent Vigen: Laramie is a tough place to be successful...need I say more
5.  Someone on the USU staff
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: At least 1-2 more years of Matt Wells at Utah State.

BYU HC Kalani Sitake

Reason he would leave: BYU can't match a P5 salary, and many G5 programs...that is why Kalani got the job in the first place.

Reason he would stay: He is just getting started and has yet to prove himself.  Likely little interest in from other programs.  Likely little interest he would have in pursuing another job.  And as far as losing his job, no one fires a head coach after an 8-win season unless they really mess up.

Possible next job: PAC-12 Head Coach, NFL Head Coach

Chances he will leave: Less than 1%
<1 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  (Popular choice) OC Ty Detmer: There would be cheers from many in Cougarland, even though Ty has only 1 year as a coodinator under his belt.
2.  DC Iliasa Tuiaki: The more I see of Tuiaki, the more I like him.  I think many in Provo see it the same way.  In a few years, he may surpass Detmer as Sitake's heir apparent.  He will be a head coach sooner or later somewhere.
3.  Weber State HC Jay Hill: See above
4.  Utah Co-OC Aaron Roderick: Why not bring another prodigal son home?
5.  Snow College HC Britt Maughan: He we the dark horse when Mendenhall left.  Could be the dark horse again.
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: Kalani may not finish his career in Provo, but it will be at least 5 years before he goes somewhere else.

SUU Head Coach Demario Warren

Reason he would leave: It actually pays better to be an FBS coordinator than and FCS head coach.

Reason he would stay: Like Sitake, Warren is new at this and needs another season or two to get his feet under him.

Chances he will leave: Almost infinitesimal

Possible next job: Defense coordinator at an FBS school.

Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Utah assistant Justin Ena: He was in Cedar City for a number of years.  It's familiar territory for him and SUU
2.  An assistant, but not a coordinator, at any school in Utah
3.  An SUU assistant
4.  An assistant from another Big Sky School
5.  A successful Division II head coach
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: Demario Warren will be in Cedar City for a few more years.

High profile jobs that have already been filled:

Ed Orgeron-LSU
Tom Herman-Texas
Jeff Tedford-Fresno State

Likely and/or Current Openings (According to Coaches Hot Seat, which isn't the best source)

Notre Dame (Coach Brian Kelly has resigned)
Arizona
Texas Tech
Oregon
Boston College
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Texas A&M
San Jose State

Coaches on the hot seat who may get one more year

Chris Ash-Rutgers
Gary Anderson-Oregon State
Bret Beilema-Arkansas
Tony Sachez-UNLV
Jim Mora-UCLA


PAC-12 coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season other than KW:

Probably none.

MWC head coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season:

1.  Wyoming HC Craig Bohl 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">2.  San Diego State HC Rocky Long 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">3.  Boise State HC Bryan Harsin 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">4.  New Mexico HC Bob Davie 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Big Sky Conference head coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season:

1.  Eastern Washington HC Beau Baldwin
2.  Cal Poly HC Tim Walsh 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">3.  North Dakota HC Bubba Schweigert 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">4.  Weber State HC Jay Hill 

The Big 12 is Not Expanding After All

The Big 12 will not expand after all, and BYU will remain independent for the extended future.  I did not hop on the Big 12 expansion rumors because I more than a little doubt it would actually happen as the process moved on.

It's not that the Universities in the conference do not want BYU's baggage, although there is some of that, it's mostly the media partners who are saying no.  They are the ones who pony up the money.  They are the ones who are at risk if there is an advertising boycott.  BYU is up against a very powerful and wealthy group intent on creating permanent change to American culture and the LDS church is standing in the way.

So far, it is not as bad as it could be.  Schools have not refused to play BYU in sports, nor has there been any move to strip BYU of its accreditation, yet.  I do not feel as if those in that community feel that they have done enough.

Also, keep in mind that you are up against a group that knows how to chose the battles that they fight.

But that is not the only thing about American Culture that is changing.  The model that college football is on at this time is not sustainable.  The TV money will not be around forever.  Either it will remain flat and inflation will catch up, or it will fall.  BYU is in a good position to ride it out, where others are not.  BYU will not be kept out of the top tier forever.

Big Sky Divisions for 2017 with Idaho Returning

This also includes some alternative proposals:

The Vandals return to the Big Sky Conference next season.  Perhaps it is time to pick divisions.  In the FCS, divisions are for scheduling.  There is no prevision for a championship game.  The Big Sky conference has rarely been denied a second NCAA bid in the playoffs.  It would be nice to decide a champion on the field.  Perhaps the NCAA will change the rule and allow the two division champions to meet in Las Vegas to determine who will get the auto bid.  When the CAA or other conference that has had divisions, usually they are both awarded a championship unless the two division champions met in the regular season.  Then the winner of that game is awarded the championship.  The NCAA auto bid would go to the higher ranked of the two teams.

The division names, by my choice, are after the two most popular national parks in the west.

The Yellowstone Division

Eastern Washington
Idaho
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota
Portland State

The Grand Canyon Division

Cal Poly
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Southern Utah
Sacramento State
Weber State

How the scheduling works

Each team will play 1 designated rival from the other division, plus one other game on a rotational basis.  That will give the conference teams 8 games.  The teams can play games against teams from the other division as non-conference games.  However, this proposal has a problem.  Weber State is one of the founders of the conference, and the other four founders: Idaho, Idaho State, Montana and Montana State will be together in the other division.  Weber State would likely be assigned Idaho State as a recognized rival, and then play the other four founders once every six years.  One way around this would be to switch with either Portland State or North Dakota, which would obviously present travel issues.

Alternative Proposal 1:

However, I have a solution to fix this that perhaps has not been discussed, or may it has.  Cal Poly and UC Davis are in the Big West Conference.  Is it possible, and I am not sure that it is, to resurrect the Big West Football Conference (Similar to the Missouri Valley Football Conference) and allow some schools to leave the Big Sky Conference for Football.  For Example:

Big Sky Conference:

Eastern Washington
Idaho
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Weber State

Big West Football Conference:

Cal Poly
UC Davis
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Diego

Alternate Proposal 2:  Keeping Idaho at the FBS level.

FBS Big Sky Conference (Primary Conference if not Big Sky)

Cal Poly (Big West)
Eastern Washington
Hawai'i (Big West)
Idaho
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota State (Summitt)
Portland State
Sacramento State

Grand Canyon Conference (FCS Big Sky...Probably must have a different name.)

UC Davis (Big West)
Idaho State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
San Diego (WCC)
Weber State

Preview of the 9/10/17 college football week in Utah

Utah State at USC

You may have heard that the Trojans lost last week.  Actually, they were embarrassed.  It probably wasn't a fun week of practice in Los Angeles, either.  The fans will be angry as well.  They are hoping to take it out on the USU Aggies.  Sagarin says that the Trojans should win by 11.  I think it will be a little bit more spread out than that.

USC 35 Utah State 17

Weber State at South Dakota

Sometimes getting drubbed by your big brother is a good thing.  It can be a learning experience.  You learn what you weaknesses are and how to improve them.  That does not necessarily mean that you will come away with a victory next time.  Weber State now travels to the Dakota Dome which looks like the love child of the Kibbie Dome and the Walkup Skydome.  It is basically a concrete Walkup.  It  should not be all that unfamiliar to the Wildcats.  I expect that they will do better than the touchdown underdog that they are right now.  I am not predicting a win.

South Dakota 24 Weber State 21

Southeastern Louisiana at Southern Utah

The Thunderbirds are a two-touchdown favorite against the Lions.  SE LA was taken to the woodshed last week in Stillwater by the Cowboys.  The T-Birds were stellar on defense against Utah last week, but the offense was another story.  During the last few seasons, offense has never been the thing in Cedar City.  It's been about defense, field position, forcing turnovers and special teams.  After all of that, the offense should be good enough to take advantage.  I expect a lot of that this week.

Southern Utah 45 SE Louisiana 15

BYU at Utah

Like last year, I have 3 scenarios for the BYU at Utah match-up.  I think that either one is possible.

Scenario 1--Same ol' Stuff, different year.

Kalani Sitake hasn't been in Provo long enough to get Bronco Mendenhall completely out of the system.  The Cougars come out nervous, cough up the ball, Utah builds a big lead, and the Cougars attempt to come back.

Utah 38 BYU 28

Scenario 2--Not last year's BYU team, but a similar result.

BYU comes to play, it is a close defensive struggle.  It's a field position battle, possibly no one gets into the end zone.  BYU's hero from last week proves that he is human and pushes wide a kick that could put the game into overtime.

Utah 9 BYU 6

Scenario 3--Utah did play an FCS school last week.

Utah doesn't respect BYU and expect to come out with an easy win.  The offense does not produce, and the Utes are the ones who give the ball away.  BYU's offense is methodical and deliberate.  The do not put up big numbers in the first half, except in time of possession.  BYU has a two-touchdown lead at the half 17-3.  Utah comes back, does a little better in the 2nd half, especially on defense.  The offense isn't quite experienced enough to finish a comeback.  With a 3 point BYU lead, Utah's final drive ends on downs with less than a minute left.

BYU 24 Utah 21

Week 1 MVPs and Power Rankings

FBS Independents

Last I checked, BYU was still independent.  I must avoid the temptation to put BYU in the Big 12 conference before they are there.  However, there is a game against West Virginia on the schedule.  That might be the time to address such things, especially if they are official by then.

Game of the Week: Texas 50 Notre Dame 47
Offensive MVP: BYU RB Jamaal Williams
Defensive MVP: Army DB Marcus Hyatt
Special Teams MVP: BYU K Jake Oldroyd

Power Rankings

1. BYU
2. Notre Dame
3. Army
4. Massachusetts

PAC 12

It was not a good start for the season for the PAC-12 South.  But it is only the first week of the season.  Colorado suddenly looks like the best team for the south.  However, consider the level of competition.  USC and UCLA both played FCS teams on the road.  Colorado and Arizona played G5 schools.  Utah and Arizona State played schools from the Grand Canyon Division of the Big Sky Conference (Yes, I came up with that just now, and I think they should use it.  Thank you very much.)  As far as USC is concerned, no one expected the Trojans to come away from Tuscolusa with a win, but no one expected them to lose that bad.  However, Washington State laid the egg of the week at home against a team from the Yellowstone Division of the Big Sky Conference.  I guess we now know which head coaches are on the hot seat.

Game of the Week: BYU 18 Arizona 16
Offensive MVP: California QB Davis Webb
Defensive MVP: Washington LB Keishawn Bierra
Special Teams MVP: Washington KR John Ross

Power Rankings:
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Washington
4. California
5. Utah
6. Arizona State
7. Colorado
8. UCLA
9. Arizona
10. Oregon State
11. USC
12. Washington State

Mountain West

It was either swimming in the kiddie pool or the deep end for the Mountain West in week 1.  Except for the Wyoming Cowboys.  That turned into a pretty good game, and perhaps Wyoming is finally beginning to rise a little bit in the conference.  I guess we will have to wait until week 2 to find out how good everyone really is.  One other exception is Nevada.  What happens when you nearly drown in the Kiddie Pool? Eventually you have to stand up.

Game of the Week: Wyoming 40 Northern Illinois 34
Offensive MVP: Utah State RB Devonte Mays
Defensive MVP:Boise State DE Jabril Frazier
Special Teams MVP: New Mexico KR Chris Ian Davis, Jr

Power Rankings

1. Boise State
2. San Diego State
3. Utah State
4. Wyoming
5. Air Force
6. New Mexico
7. UNLV
8. Nevada
9. San Jose State
10. Fresno State
11. Colorado State
12. Hawaii

Big Sky Conference

It was money week in the Big Sky Conference.  That is where teams accept a huge payout from an FBS school or they play a Division II, Division II or NAIA school and run up the score.  Either way, it's more of a glorified scrimmage.  What do we learn?  Sometimes nothing.  Sometime a lot.  This week we learned that SUU still has a pretty good defense.  Eastern Washington is as good as expected.  Sacramento State is going to struggle this year.  There were two games that I wouldn't classify as money games.  Montana State lost a close one at Idaho.  Idaho will be returning to the FBS and the Big Sky Conference, soon.  North Dakota struggled offensively at Stony Brook.

Game of the Week: Eastern Washington 45 Washington State 42
Offensive Player of the Week: Eastern Washington QB Gage Gubrud
Defensive Player of the Week: Idaho State LB Ryan Shields
Special Teams Player of the Week: Idaho State K Zak Johnson

Power Rankings:

1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana
3. Cal Poly
4. Portland State
5. Idaho State
6. Northern Arizona
7. Montana State
8. Southern Utah
9. Weber State
10. UC Davis
11. Northern Colorado
12. North Dakota
13. Sacramento State

College Football Week 1 Review

Now that week 1 is over with, I would like to remind everyone that often teams that look good in week 1, don't amount to much the rest of the season and visa versa.  I hope that I am not this guy, but I probably will be.

BYU 18 Arizona 16

The last two minutes of this game were fun.  The rest of the game, in spite of being a defensive chess match from two programs known for scoring lots of points, was interesting.  It wasn't exactly a punt fest.  There was a lot of deliberate action by both teams.  Clearly, the Bronco Mendenhall era is gone in Provo and fans will be happy that there is no more go fast go hard.  No more 3 and out in 15 seconds.  Arizona fans should also be happy not to see that either.  The points will come as the season moves on.

BYU MVP: RB Jamaal Williams

Utah 24 Southern Utah 0

This is probably not the way that Utah wanted to start the season.  (See the above photo.)  I think that opening with an FCS program, and having your big rivals come to town next week probably made it a little bit difficult for KW and his staff to motivate the team.  That happens to the best of programs.  No need to panic.  Utah will be ready for BYU next week.  Besides, I think the defense WAS ready for the Thunderbirds.  In spite of a bad showing on offense, the Utes still had twice as much everything as the T-Birds.

Utah MVP: S Marcus Williams

Southern Utah MVP: None Chosen

Utah State 45 Weber State 6

At least the score wasn't 70-0, for those of you remember that game from 3 years ago.  The Weber State defense was gobbled up by the Aggie offense.  Again, this is FBS vs FCS, and you are not exactly comparing the same caliber of athletes.  If WSU players could run with USU players, they would be at USU.  (Again, that is Captain Obvious speaking).  However, it was probably much more of a learning experience for the Wildcats, who has some weaknesses exposed, and know what they need to fix to be ready for the rest of the season.  We will have to wait another week for USU to know that.

USU MVP: RB Devante Mays

WSU MVP: RB Treshawn Garrett

Swagger's College Football Preview

There are a couple of changes that I am making this year to this blog.  First of all, I am not predicting the Big 12 expansion.  The information that is coming is changing regularly and those who are normally "in the know" are not in the know this time.  The main reason for this trouble is Houston.  There is a lot of political pressure for the 2 Texas public schools to push for Houston's inclusion.  This could be a warning to all of the other power conferences should they expand again.  A lot of this could be made up as writers strive for relevance.  For me, I know that I am irrelevant, and therefore I am staying away.  However, if the Big 12 does expand, I am 90% confident they will be a lock.

Second, when I rank the most difficult games remaining, it does not mean that team A on the future schedule is better than team B.  For example. Southern Utah will play at both BYU and Utah.  I will list Utah as the tougher of the two games.  Not because Utah is necessarily the better team, which we will find out next week.  But early season games, especially road games, can be more difficult.

BYU Cougars

There is a new boss, and this is a new era in Cougarland.  It is not like Bronco Mendenhall left Kalani Sitake a bad team to work with.  There are a few missing pieces, like no experienced tight ends.  Bronco recruited more heavily on defense, and there was some inconsistency at other positions.  Defensively, BYU should be kept close enough to any of their opponents to win games that they should not.  However, don't hold out hope for a perfect season.  Just enjoy the ride.

BYU games from toughest to easiest:

Likely Losses
At Michigan State
UCLA
At Utah

Probable Loss
vs. West Virginia

Probable Wins
vs. Arizona
Mississippi State
At Boise State
At Cincinnati

Likely Wins
Toledo
Utah State
Southern Utah
UMass

Optimistic Result 9-3.  Pessimistic Result: 4-8
Off Season Prediction: Poinsettia Bowl

This week's game: BYU 29 Arizona 24

Utah Utes

Stellar defense, questions at quarterback.  Some things never change in Salt Lake City.  That has been the formula for Kyle Whittingham in the past 8 years.  The good news for Utah and their fans, most of the hardest games of the season are at home.  That could be the difference this year.

Utah games from toughest to easiest

Likely loss
at UCLA

Probable Loss
Oregon
USC

Probable Wins
Washington
at Arizona State

Likely Wins
BYU
Arizona
at California
at Oregon State
at Colorado
as San Jose State
Southern Utah

This week's guess: Utah 55 S. Utah 13

Optimistic result: 11-1.  Pessimistic result 7-5
Post-Season Prediction: Alamo Bowl

Utah State Aggies

It's kind of a mixed bag for Utah State this year.  They have underated talent, but don't really have the schedule to show them off.  Not that I am predicting that they will go into the LA Colosseum and come home celebrating a win, but I don't really see them finishing worse than 2nd in the MW Mountain.  The real question in Logan is how much longer can they hang on to Matt Wells if they keep doing so well.

Games from toughest to easiest

Likely Losses
at USC
at Boise State
at BYU

Probable Loss
San Diego State

Probable Wins
at Nevada
at Colorado State
New Mexico

Likely Wins
Arkansas State
Air Force
at Wyoming
Fresno State
Weber State

Optimistic Result: 9-3 Pessimistic Result: 5-7
Post-Season Prediction: Hawaii Bowl

This week's guess: USU 32 Weber State 10

Weber State Wildcats

Jay Hill knows a little about opposition.  He is the Weber State head coach, a program that seems cursed.  Now his wife has cancer.  But the team has rallied behind their coach's family.  And that is what a good team does.  The program continues to dig out of the hole that was dug when Ron McBride retired.  The talent is still young.  They are really about 1 year away from being good again.  However, I don't see Montana or Eastern Washington on the schedule this year.  Such is life in the Big Sky Conference

Games from toughest to easiest

Likely Loss
at Utah State

Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
Portland State

Probable Wins
at South Dakota
Montana State
at Southern Utah

Likely Wins
at Idaho State
Sacramento State
at North Dakota
UC Davis

Optimistic result 10-1 Pessimistic Result 4-7
Post-Season Outlook: Is there an NIT in the FCS playoff?

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

It is easy to say that SUU had a great year last year.  But they lost too much, including coach Ed Lamb.  However, don't expect the T-Birds to just lie down and be the punching bag of the Big Sky Conference.  They still have the potential to be the surprise team in the Big Sky Conference.

Games from toughest to easiest

Likely losses
at BYU
at Utah
at Montana
at Northern Arizona

Probable Losses
Portland State
Weber State

Probable Wins
NE Louisiana
Montana State

Likely Wins
at North Dakota
at Idaho State
at UC Davis

Optimistic result: 7-4 Pessimistic Result: 3-8

Commentary on the Olympics

I am currently prepping the College Football Preview, which will be downsized this year.  I have other things on my plate, but will continue to blog weekly about the college football scene in Utah.  I find the Big 12 expansion debate thrilling, but I have no credible information leading to how it will turn out in the end.

The Olympic games just finished in Rio.  Overall, things went well for the United States.  There were some disappointments.  There always are, and there always will be.  At this level of competition, anything can happen.  Eventually, the women's basketball team will lose, and someone else will dominate the pool.  But that is all another place and time.  But there is nothing for Americans to be ashamed of.  I, for one, am proud.

There were some off-the-field embarrassments.  Ryan Lochte was one of them.  He should just admit he was drunk, and therefore not capable of telling the truth about what happened.  That would be the most believable thing he should say.

Hope Solo was an ungracious loser.  Soccer is a funny sport.  More than any other popular sport, the underdog has a chance in any given game.  This is why most professional soccer leagues world-wide do not crown a champion after a playoff.  It is very likely that the best team overall during the season will lose.

The same thing can be said in selecting a host city for the games.  I do not think that Los Angeles will be the hose of the 2024 games.  It is likely Rome or Paris.  There were 52 years between the LA games of 1932 and 1984.  That is about right time between games hosted in the United States.  Even if it can be done on the cheap.  Atlanta hosted the Olympic games of 1996.  The next time the United States should host the summer games is 2048.

Sale Lake City had a good plan when building Olympic Venues for the 2002 winter games.  They set aside money for continuous upkeep.  They constantly bid to bring the World Cup to Salt Lake.  They open up the venues for the public to use.  Some of the venues are still used for training.  If Salt Lake were to host the games again, they really could do it with little money.  It is a much better plan that hosting the game and then letting the venues wither away through neglect and non-use.  This should be the template going forward.

There were 22 years between the Lake Placid games of 1980, and the Salt Lake games.  24 years is about right for the United States to wait for their next Winter games.  The USOC should plan on putting a strong bid for the 2026 Winter games.

I am very surprised to find that no cities in North America are bidding for the 2028 games.  Buenos Aries will host the 2018 youth games.  If Paris or Rome wins the right to host the 2024 games, Argentina becomes the front runner for the 2028 games.  No other cities in either North or South America are planning bids for 2028 so far.  Perhaps this is a sign that the USOC will put together a bid for the 2026 Winter games should the LA bid fail.

If 2024 LA fails, then the next window of opportunity for the US to host the summer games, is literally 2040 as the IOC loves to rotate the games around the world.  2024 is likely to be in Europe.  2028 is likely to be in the Americas with Buenos Aires the only city in the Americas that has expressed interest, so far.  2032 is likely to be in Asia or Oceania.  2036 would then be in either Europe or Africa.  US Cities will likely try and bid, but the best chance is 2040 when the Summer games will visit the Americas once again.

The winter games don't necessarily follow this pattern.  No one in Europe or the Americas bid for the 2022 winter games.  All of the other cities dropped out.  That is why you get two winter games in a row for Asia and three consecutive Olympic games in that part of the world.  Very good chance that if the USOC goes for the 2026 Winter games, they will get it, whatever city they choose.  Therefore, choose wisely.

Hosting the Olympic games is costly.  Most cities don't plan for what to do with the venues after the games.  With planning and architecture improving, I see more games making use of temporary stadia and venues that will be taken down or re-purposed after the games are over, much like some of the venues in Rio.  Many of the venues in Tokyo will be temporary.  This is another model that may work for future Olympic games.

Let's hope that they can find ways to keep the Olympic games affordable for host nations and keep the tradition alive.

Big 12 Expansion, How I think the Dominoes will Fall

Scenario 1

Big12--Expands to 12

Adds: BYU and Houston or Cincy

American adds Army for football only

End of scenario

Scenario 2

Big 12--Expands to 14

Adds: BYU, Colorado State, Houston and Cincinnati

American adds: Army and Air Force for football only
Air Force joins Missouri Valley for other sports

Mountain West Adds: UTEP and Rice

Conference USA Adds: New Mexico State and Texas State

Sun Belt Adds: Lamar

Scenario 3

Big 12--Expands to 12, but does not include BYU

Big 12 Adds Houston and Cincy (Or any two schools from the AAC)

American Adds: Army and Air Force

Mountain West Adds: UTEP

Conference USA Adds: New Mexico State

Scenario 4

Big 12--Really Crazy Scenario

Well, let's just hope it doesn't get too crazy this time.

What about the NHL expansion team in Las Vegas?

I have been following the saga of the Raiders potential relocation to Las Vegas.  The question has to be asked, does the NHL expansion team in Las Vegas block the Raiders?

The NHL chose Las Vegas for a number of reasons.  First and foremost, there are people who call Las Vegas home who have money to burn.  If there is one thing that spots leagues want is a potential owner who has money in a city that has money.  There is plenty of money in Vegas.  Most people leave with a lot less than they came with.  There are other reasons as well.  For example, Vegans have been strong supporters of minor league hockey for many decades.  The NHL believes that it can succeed there.

And yes, the NHL owners did consider the possibility that the Raiders would make the move to Las Vegas.  Obviously, that is not a concern, or at least not a deal breaker.  It could be because they do not believe that NFL owners will approve the move.  Or, they don't look at the Raiders as a threat to their likelihood of success.  My hunch is that it is the latter.  Here is why.

First of all, the Las Vegas metro has 2 million people, and is approaching the size of Pittsburgh, a city with both an NFL and NHL franchise...and a MLB franchise.  Las Vegas is not exactly a city that is overloaded with sports teams right now.  The door of opportunity is open.

Second, the NHL and NFL regular seasons overlap a little, but only for about 2 and 1/2 months.  From January to April, the NHL will not compete against the NFL.  For more than half of the NFL season, the Raiders would not compete against the NHL franchise.

Third, during that season-overlap time, the NHL can ovoid scheduling home games on Sunday, Monday and Thursday.  I think that the NFL puts out their schedule earlier enough for the NHL to avoid scheduling games that conflict with the NFL teams in the same cities of NHL teams.

Fourth, there are hockey fans that don't care for football and visa versa.

Fifth, if market size was the only thing that mattered to the success of a sports franchise, the US sports leagues would all look like the English Premier League, where half the league resides in three cities.  (In the EPL it's London, Manchester and Liverpool...In the US it would be six cities, New York, LA, Chicago, Houston, Dallas and San Francisco).

In conclusion, I do not think the NHL expansion team is a good reason to prevent the Raiders from relocating to Las Vegas.

Is it Now or Never for BYU?

It seems that the Big 12 will announce expansion sometime between the end of May and the first of August.  BYU fans are on pins and needles.  Of course there are reasons to choose BYU and reasons to say no.  I will not go into those here, but answer some other questions.

First, is this the last chance for BYU to get into a power conference?  No.  There will be changes coming to college education and to college sports.  There is no way that this will be the end of expansion.  One thing that we have not yet to see, which is surely coming sometime in the near future, is power 5 programs who are not keeping up deciding to accept a step back.  Much like Idaho has taken a step back from the FBS and deciding to return to the Big Sky Conference.  I do not know who, yet.  But there are very few programs actually profitable.  Sooner or later, states will look at expenses, and determine that the high cost isn't worth it.  Schools, after all, are spending tons of money on facilities that do not seem to educate students, and only benefit a handful.  That money has to be looked at.  Is it really fair to force students to borrow money to cover the expenses of others?  Some schools will have to make hard choices and determine that Power-5 athletics are not worth the price, and drop bakc.  If BYU does not get into the Big 12 now, there will shortly be other opportunities.

Will BYU remain independent if the Big 12 passes on them this time time?  That will be the case if they can find another conference that will work with them.  Perhaps it will be the American, but just for football.  It is still doubtful, at least in my mind, that the MWC will take them back.  Perhaps there will be a new conference form for the Cougars.  However, it seems most likely that if the Big 12 passes on the Cougars, that they will remain independent for the near future.

My hunch is that it is most likely that BYU will join the Big 12 with Cincinnati.  And if it is not now, it is also not never, either.

The Leicester City Equivelent

I know that most of my readers are probably not familiar with the English Premier League.  This is one of the top four soccer leagues in the world (along with Spain's La Liga, Germany's Bundesliga and Italy's Siere A), and the equivalent of the NFL here.  Something absolutely incredible has happened there.

In the European Leagues, they practice something known as promotion/relegation.  It would be similar to knocking the bottom-finishing MLB baseball teams to AAA at the end of the season, and giving the best AAA teams a shot at the majors in their place.  (Except the AAA teams would be independent and not farm clubs of the Major League Teams.)

In England, the Leicester City Football Club was promoted to the English Premier League for the 2014/15 season.  In their second season in the top tier league, they win it.  Absolutely incredible.  Here is what I think would be the American equivalent to what Leicester just did.

NFL

The Jacksonville Jaguars Win Super Bowl LI.

Closest actual experience...Super Bowl XXXVI, where Brady, as a rookie, lead the Patriots to their first championship.

NBA

The Utah Jazz win the 2017 NBA Title.

Closest actual experience...1977 Portland Trailblazers beat the Philadelphia 76ers to win the NBA Title.

Hockey

The Columbus Blue Jackets hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.

The closest actual experience...1974 Philadelphia Flyers over the Boston Bruins.  This was the first time a non-original six team won the cup.

Baseball

The Albuquerque Isotopes win the 2017 World Series.

The closest actual experience...1969 New York Mets winning the World Series over the Orioles.  Remember, the Mets replaced the Dodgers/Giants in 1962.

College Football

The Montana Grizzlies claim the FBS College Playoff Championship

The closest actual experience...Notre Dame in 1943.  All of the young men were drafted into the Army.  Anyone other than a service academy winning at this time was incredible.  (Army won most of their national titles during this era.)

College Basketball

UMKC Kangaroos claim NCAA Final Four Championship.  (There are probably 270 schools that fit this description.  The 'Roos were the first one I thought of.)

The closest actual experience...Texas Western (Now UTEP) in 1966.  The only time between 1964 and 1973 that someone other than UCLA won.  Don Haskins broke the color barrier in College Basketball in a big way.

MLS Soccer

Sacramento Republic claim MLS Cup.

The closest actual experience...Real Salt Lake in 2009.  RSL started in 2005 and the LA Galaxy had some of the best players in the world.

Golf

Ben Hunt (That's me...Sorry no photo) wins the Masters.  (I wear a 40 short)

The closest actual experience...2013 Adam Scott

Update on the Raiders in Las Vegas--4/28/16--The Silver and Black State.

Mike Davis, the owner of the Raiders, has committed a half billion of his own dollars to build a stadium in Las Vegas.  I do not know all of the details, and I can't find a good rendering, however, this is what I know.

Funding does not look like it will be a problem, with most of the cost coming from the Raiders and some of the casino owners in town.  However, it will take some city money to provide the underlying infrastructure as sports facilities have greater SWPPP requirements than other projects.  There are also parking structures and other such items to build, which often a city will pay for as long as there is year-round use for it.  The commitment from the community will be minimal.  Which I understand could happen with simply a minor increase in hotel taxes.  Most visitors won't know the difference, as they go to Sin City to lose money, anyway.  What's an extra buck or two on a hotel when you lose your shirt?

Here are some other details that I have been able to glean.  The final stadium may vary from this.  These things always change from the early planning stages.

-The new stadium will seat 65,000...possibly expandable to 75,000 to host the Super Bowl and provide extra seating for other special events.  But the latter detail is not confirmed.
-It will either be domed stadium, or with a retractable roof.
-The stadium would likely also be the new home of UNLV football and the Las Vegas Bowl in addition to the Raiders.  This wouldn't only facility in the NFL that is shared with a local college team on a permanent basis.  Until recently, the Saints shared their home with Tulane.  The Buccaneers share their home with USF.  The Eagles and Temple play in the same stadium.  The Chargers and San Diego State also share a stadium, but it is unclear if this will continue with the new stadium in San Diego.  Qualcomm field is close to campus, and SDSU may remain there...with some renovations, of course.  There are many other examples from the past that I do not need to mention, I think you get the point.
-The stadium could also host the NCAA final four, if it has either a permanent or retractable roof.
-The stadium will likely host premiere boxing matches and other similar events.
-The stadium could be the home of a new annual music festival.
-The stadium may also host an MLS franchise, and the field will likely be soccer-friendly.

The state and city were already in negotiation with UNLV to build a new stadium, however, the traction was not there to give the Rebels a new football filed, at least not yet.  Below is what UNLV was trying to build, but they couldn't get the state allow UNLV to pay their share of the construction costs.  Which could be an obstacle still, but with Davis's Benjamins, it could now be a reality.  And the share that UNLV would have to pay might be less, much less.   The Raiders stadium might look something like this, but on a grander scale, and may not.  In this shot, the roof is cut-away.  At the side of the stadium we can't see in this view (Not the end zone, but the sideline), there is a large stage, running goal-line to goal line, which could hold the extra seats needed to host the Super Bowl.  There is also an large LCD screen above the state.

Here is a view from the inside:

There are some other roadblocks to getting the Raiders there in the meantime.  Mostly, that pro sports leagues, not just the NFL, are hesitant to locate in Las Vegas...but this blog has already addressed that issue.  I have one thing to add, however.  There are three NCAA conferences, the Mountain West, the PAC-12 and the WCC that have their men's and women's conference championship tournaments in Las Vegas.  The most intriguing of these is the WCC, which is is the home of ultra-conservative, stone-cold sober, BYU and 9 other private, religious institutions.  Most of the WCC schools are Roman Catholic Jesuit schools who all very much against gambling and prostitution.  If the WCC can play in Vegas, so can the NFL.

Also, in spite of playing in one of the worst 3 stadiums currently in the NFL for 2016, the Oakland Raiders are nearly sold out of season tickets for the upcoming season.  That is part of the problem with sports moves.  You will leave fans behind.  The fans want the team to stay in Oakland.  They don't want to follow the team to Las Vegas, and are voting for their wallets.  This is why I think that Davis and Oakland should make one last effort to keep the team in the Bay Area.  Bring the A's, Warriors and Sharks together on this as well and work out a deal.

One other obstacle to overcome for the Raiders is that if they make the move, where would they play in 2017?  Certainly remaining in Oakland wouldn't work.  Sam Boyd Stadium, the current home of the UNLV Rebels, isn't exactly an NFL Stadium.  It currently holds just 40,000 if you put seats at the North (open) end.  It will take 2-3 years to build the new facility.  However, the Titans played one year at Vanderbilt stadium, which is about the same size as SBS while waiting for Nissan Stadium to finish.  The Bears played at Northwestern while Soldier Field was being renovated, which is only slightly larger.  The Vikings have been playing for the last 2 and 1/2 seasons at the University of Minnesota, which is larger, but not protected from the weather.  This may only be a slight concern.  There may be temporary considerations to help overcome concerns about the old Silver Bowl as a temporary home.

One last comment.  Why isn't Davis taking his half billion to Oakland and building there?  It has to do with the cost of living difference.  Companies aren't leaving California in droves, but many are moving some of their operations out of the Bay Area because of cost.  I work for one such company.  We are not moving everything to Utah, and certainly not the company headquarters, but much of it will be relocated here to save cost.

Because of cost, the half Billion that Davis is willing to spend on a new stadium will not go as far in Oakland.  Yes, he can build a stadium there, but it will not be as nice.  In Las Vegas, Davis can build something that will rival the new Rams stadium, or perhaps be the very nicest in the NFL.  But in Oakland, it will only be your average, median stadium, at best.  Plus, it will only be for the Raiders.  No Super Bowl, no Final Four, no Boxing, no music festival.

In conclusion, even though I think the Raiders owe it to their fans to make one last try to remain where they are, I understand why Mike Davis wants to move.  And if they do move to Las Vegas, which is only a 6 hour drive (plus crossing a time zone) from my home in the Salt Lake Valley, I might just go see a game (of course it will be on Monday Night).  I've never been to an NFL game, and it is on my bucket list.

Proposal for the Big Sky Conference

With New Mexico State and Idaho closer to accepting relegation, perhaps it is time for the Big Sky Conference to consider its options.  And the WAC finally kicking the bucket opens up a possibility.  And one options I think they should consider is splitting.  There is always the talk of how cool a conference championship game would be.  But at the FCS level, you do not get extra credit for being super large.  The BSC will have one and only one automatic NCAA bid whether the conference is at 20 members or 7.  The other problem is that conference members will have a harder time finding quality non-conference that they can travel to with a super-large conference.  Super Conferences aren't always the best solution.

Therefore, I suggest that the conference split once formally joined by Idaho and New Mexico State for football.  It can be a football-only split, as some members of the conference are football-only schools.

Big Sky Conference

Eastern Washington
Idaho
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota
Portland State
Weber State


Western Rivers Conference

Cal Poly (Football Only)
UC Davis (Football Only)
San Diego  (Football Only)
Dixie State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
New Mexico State
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Seattle (Non Football)
CSU Bakersfield (Non Football)
Utah Valley (Non Football)
Grand Canyon (Non Football)


This is what I have done.  The Original 5 members of the BSC make up the new BSC, rounded out by EWU, PSU and UND.  There is unity.  These are all public schools and with the exception of UND in place of Sacramento State, have been in the same conference for decades.

The new WRC, has the football only schools, put San Diego University, an outlier of the Pioneer conference.  but has 5 football schools as a base with the inclusion of DSU and NMSU for football.  There are the 4 other remnants from the non-football WAC joining the full-time schools for basketball and the so-called Olympic Sports.

The benefits will be a new conference and a second automatic bid to the NCAA football tournament and basketball tournament, etc.  And there will be help with scheduling.  And it team that finishes 8-3 will not be 5th in the conference.

Think about it.  A Big Sky is good, but a really big sky, not so much.

MLS 2016 predictions

Here is my prediction for the 2016 season of Major League Soccer.

East

1.  Columbus
2.  New York Red Bulls
3.  DC United
4.  New England
5.  Orlando
6.  Montreal
7.  Toronto
8.  New York City FC
9.  Philadelphia
10.  Chicago

West

1.  FC Dallas
2.  Portland
3.  Vancouver
4.  Los Angeles
5.  Seattle
6.  Real Salt Lake
7.  Sporting Kansas City
8.  Houston
9.  San Jose
10.  Colorado

Raiders in Las Vegas and other options for Mike Davis

Las Vegas is not the place you would go during Lent...that much is certain.  And that is the reason none of the major professional sports leagues have been willing to locate a team there.  Las Vegas is still one of the fastest growing metro areas in the United States, and is now the largest such area in the US without a major sports franchise.

In spite of this, and the fact that a stadium could be built there without any public funds, do not expect the NFL to go there willingly.  They say, whatever happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, however, it is much different when you live there.  And it is all exacerbated when you have young men who are making good money for the first time in their lives and don't know what to do with their extra time.

Eight of the top 15 employers in Las Vegas are involved in the gambling industry.  However, that is not all that is in Sin City.  It is also the western hub for Southwest Airlines, the second largest airline in the United States.  Wal Mart, Target and Home Depot have distribution centers there.  Health Care, like many cities in the southwest, is large because the mild climate and low cost of living is attractive to retirees.  But the percentage of people who work in the gaming industry is very high, and many people feel without others visiting the city to gamble, there wouldn't be much there at all.

But that is not really the reason behind the lack of support in going to Lav Vegas.  The real question is this, will athletes be able to keep out of trouble if we put a team there?  In this day and age, could this still be a reason to continue to shun Las Vegas.  After all, athletes in trouble makes headlines regularly.

Commercial casinos are now legal in 17 states.  12 of these 17 states are currently the home to NFL franchises.  However, in most of these states, gaming casinos are not right next door to the NFL stadiums.  In Colorado, for example, casinos can be found in old mining towns and on the reservation, not right across the street from Investco Field at Mile High, and really, now where near Denver.  Most states that have commercial gaming restrict the territory, making them destination sites.  The NFL allows its players to gamble, but limits what activities they can do.  Outside of former Colt Art Schliester and former 49ers Owner Eddie DeBartalo, Jr, the NFL has been relatively free of gambling controversies.

It is hard to say if gambling would be a problem if an NFL team came to Las Vegas.  But the temptation would certainly be there.  But there are other temptations in Sin City.  Prostitution is legal, and Nevada is the only state where it is.  All of this could lead to greater problems with domestic violence, which is something that the NFL needs less of.

However, what Las Vegas needs is a more diversified economy.  When the overall economy of the US is suffering, Las Vegas suffers as well, especially now that there are options for most Americans to gamble closer to home.  An NFL franchise, or an NBA, MLB, NHL or MLS franchise would help legitimize the city and attract more non-gaming business to the city.  Las Vegas needs this more than anything else right now.  Las Vegas would also be a great place to hold the Super Bowl, as there are plenty of hotels around town.

There are probably other options for the Raiders if they are unable to build a stadium in Oakland.  They could share the Rams new facility.  There are other proposed stadiums in the Los Angeles area that could work for the Raiders.  If the Chargers abandon San Diego, the Raiders could locate there.  They could build in the Central Valley, in either Sacramento or Fresno.  There are also a half dozen other cities around the country that the Raiders could move to, like Portland, Salt Lake, San Antonio, Birmingham, or Southern Virginia.  There is even room for a third franchise in the New York area, perhaps one that actually has a stadium in one of the Five Burroughs.  Finally, they could locate north of the border in either Vancouver or Toronto.  And for that matter, could even move to Mexico City, Monterrey or Guadalajara.

However, let me pitch one final idea.  Let's move the Warriors out of Oakland after this season.  There is a new area going up in San Francisco for the Warriors, let's move them to the SAP Center in San Jose, home of the NHL's Sharks.  Then immediately after the NBA season is finished (and for the Warriors, it looks like it will be early June this year) raise the Oracle Arena and begin construction on a new stadium for the Raiders.  Once the Raiders are able to move out of O.co, then the stadium can be permanently remodeled as a baseball only facility for the Athletics.

However, what makes sense rarely happens and it will be fun to see how this all plays out.

Idaho kicked out of Sun Belt Conference

As announced by the Sun Belt Conference last week, Idaho as a football-only member has been summarily dismissed.  2017 will be the last season the Vandals will compete in the Sun Belt Conference for football.  There are not a lot of options left for Idaho, and most of this was their own doing.  The same was announced for New Mexico State.

There were probably two reasons why the Sun Belt Conference made this move.  First, it was to trim expenses.  It would be better if Moscow, Idaho was located near a major hub airport, but they are not.  Getting from Monroe, Louisiana to Moscow isn't cheap, and involves two or three airplane changes.  Getting to the rest of the Sun Belt can easily be done by bus, which is a cheaper option.  The other reason is the that Vandals have not been competitive since joining the Sun Belt.  And in the current world of College Sports, the Sun Belt needs every member to excel and become competitive.

There are some options for Idaho, but they are limited.  First is to try and join another conference.  However, if the Mountain West or Conference USA wanted Idaho, they would already be there.  I would put a caveat to that statement.  Conference USA probably is a realistic option for New Mexico State, should future realignment cost that conference a member and they (the NMSU Aggies) are a natural rival with UTEP and other C-USA members.  However, Idaho is well outside of the C-USA footprint, and don't really have the pull the NMSU has to get in.

Idaho could compete as an independent in football, and didn't exactly have the trouble scheduling games as an independent that people thought they would.  NMSU may also compete as an independent with them.  There is always BYU to schedule, and perhaps and agreement can be made to bring the Cougars to Moscow.  However, this is not a sustainable model, and the only school that really seems committed to long-term independence is Army.  Notre Dame has a scheduling agreement with the ACC.  BYU is desperately trying to woo the Big 12.

It would not be completely off kilter for Idaho to hold on to the FBS for a couple of years, perhaps until the end of the decade.  There are rumblings of more conference realignment and that could benefit the Vandals to where the MWC or C-USA would welcome them.

One other option for Idaho is to attempt to form a new FBS conference along with some of the more successful FCS programs like Montana and North Dakota State.  But it seems like these schools would rather be a big fish in a little pond and you may not find enough schools willing to make the jump right now.

However, the best bet for Idaho is to take a standing invitation for returned full membership in the Big Sky Conference.  There are several reason why this makes good sense.  First, they could drop a couple of non-revenue sports to reduce the cost of the athletic department.  They could pay their assistant coaches less.  They would not have as many scholarship football athletes.  They could resume rivalries against schools that are geographically close like Montana, Eastern Washington and Idaho State.  The expenses may drop more dramatically than the revenue.  If so, this is the best move.

The senior leaders at Idaho get paid big money to make hard decisions.  At Idaho, they have a hard decision to make right now.  I don't envy them.  Whatever they decide to do, I hope for the best.

More on why the Rams had to move...and the lessons to be learned.

Sporting News recently ranked all 31 NFL stadiums...they included Wembly the London home of the National Football League.  If you look at the list, you will see that it is not necessarily new that makes the top of the list, as Lambeau Field is #1, it is attention to the overall fan experience.  I highly recommend looking over the list.

The problem with St. Louis is that the entire focus on the stadium was luxury boxes.  It was believed back in the mid 1990s that to focus on luxury boxes would bring a team revenue, and with that revenue the team would be able to sign high-priced free agents.  That never happened in St. Louis because they forgot of the rank-and-file, Average Joe who would pay a much higher percentage of his paycheck for season ticket.  It was the lack of Average Joe at St. Louis Rams games that caused the end of the St. Louis Rams.  This is why one of the oldest stadiums in the NFL, the one on the other side of the Show Me State, is still one of the best in the NFL in spite of its age.  It is a great place for Average Joe to blow a mid-month paycheck.

In addition to this lack of focus is a lack of other things for fans to do outside the stadium on game day.  There are very few places to park that allow tailgating.  There are not very many bars and restaurants nearby.  But the baseball park, where the St. Louis Cardinals play is another story.  The baseball cardinals are, in fact, one of the best attended teams in baseball.

Here are the bottom 5 NFL stadiums according to Sporting News

31. O.co Colosseum, Raiders

If you look at the picture at the Sporting News site, you see the problem.  O.co also serves as home to the Athletics of Baseball.  And there are bleachers that give football fans sideline access for Raider games, which are retracted for baseball as they are in the baseball outfield.  The problem, as you can see from the photo, is those sideline fans are in the sun, and have to compete with the brightest star of all to see much of the game, particularly on one side of the 50 yard line.  There is also little outside the stadium for the fan to enjoy before or after the game.  After 20 years back in Oakland, that renovation is still being paid for by the Raiders because fans have stayed home in droves.

As for a solution, here is what has been proposed.  It's complicated, but here goes.  The Golden State Warriors will be moving to a new arena in San Francisco in 2018.  The plan would be to temporarily move the Warriors to the SAP arena.  The Oracle Arena, which is on the same site as the O.co, would be razed so that a new baseball stadium for the Athletics can be built.  In the mean time, move the Raiders to Levi's Stadium or California Memorial Stadium, temporarily.  Once the Athletics are out of O.co, raze that stadium for a new Raiders stadium.  This will take some time, at least 5 years, before dirt is moved for a new stadium for the Raiders, and is sounds a lot like what went down in Cincinnati a few years ago for the Bengals.  That did not turn out so well.

30.  Qualcomm Stadium, Chargers

It's just old, and has simply been in limbo too long.  The locker room floods.  Fans are staying away in droves.

29.  Georgia Dome, Falcons

It has served its purpose and now the Falcons are two seasons from moving on.  This is much like the story in St. Louis, where the focus was on luxury boxes while the rank and file fans had so suffer from poor sight lines and an inconsistent team

38.  Fed Ex Field, Redskins

In terms of sight lines, the stadium isn't terrible, and the VIPs have it just as bad as the rank and file fans.  They have tried some things to improve the situation, and those things have failed, just like the team on the field, which was one of the best in the NFL at the old place.  Major League Soccer's DC United is the sole tenant at the old place, and soon they will have a new place.  Redskins ownership is now talking about wrecking the old place and building a new place for the team at the sight of the old place.

37.  Edward Jones Dome, Rams

See above.

Best NFL Stadiums

5. Arrowhead Stadium, Chiefs

This one was ahead of its time.

4. Century Link Field, Seahawks

3. Levi's Stadium, 49ers.

There is even an amusement park nearby.

2. AT&T Stadium, Cowboys

1. Lambeau Field, Packers

The Rams are back in LA

As you probably no by now, the Los Angeles Rams have been reborn at the cost of the good taxpayers of the city of St. Louis, who still owe quite a bit of moola on the stadium that the Rams are abandoning.

Fair or not, these are the breaks in the world of professional sports today.  However, as good as St. Louis was for the Rams, it was really a comedy of errors and it can be argued that the Rams should not have moved there.  St. Louis is the 19th largest CSA in the United States.  That puts them just ahead of Pittsburgh, Charlotte and Sacramento and just behind Portland and Orlando.  Out of these six areas, only Pittsburgh is now the home of 3 sports teams from the 5 major sports leagues in the United States.  St. Louis is still the home of Baseball's Cardinals and Hockey's Blues.  Where Portland and Orlando have Basketball and Soccer.  Charlotte is the home of Basketball's Hornets and Football's Panthers.  Sacramento is only home for basketball's Kings.  It seems that in a city the size of St. Louis, two sports teams seems like enough, where three might be too much.

Not having football in LA has mostly been negative.  Sure there are some positives, for example, you could walk into a sports bar in LA wearing any teams colors you wanted to on a Sunday in the fall and not worry about offending the home crowd.  However, anywhere from nine to thirteen current NFL franchises have held their own cities hostage for new stadiums with the threat of moving to a vacant Los Angeles market.

However, it will not really be all that difficult to get new stadiums built in the United States.  There are plenty of other cities that teams can threaten to move to, such as Portland, the 17th largest market in the US, and now the largest without an NFL franchise.  St. Louis, which would gladly risk getting burned a 3rd time by an NFL team, now the 2nd largest market without the NFL.  Sacramento, which only has the Kings to compete against, now the 3rd largest market without an NFL franchise.   Las Vegas has no professional sports and is not much smaller than St. Louis. Oakland, blocked from going back to LA seems willing to find another city as getting a new stadium in Oakland seems far-fetched.  The Jaguars are another teams that is struggling at the gate, and could be looking for a new home in the near future as well.

Times change in the US.  Cities are growing and others are shrinking.  As of now, other than Green Bay, Buffalo is the smallest city in the US that hosts a major sports franchise.  Yes, and efforts are underway to provided both the Bills and the Sabers with new, up to date homes.  However, smaller cities are going to have to build new facilities as a faster rate than larger cities, and the burden on the taxpayer in those cities will be greater and greater.  While larger cities, with larger tax bases are going without.  The Rams are moving to a new stadium, in 2-3 seasons, that is not financed by taxpayers at all.  The new stadium will be surrounded by offices, shopping and condos.  The former Hollywood park site will become a new model for sports facilities in the future if we are lucky.  That is bad new for cities that want to hold on to their teams, but good news for tax-strapped cities of the future.  With this model, it won't be long before someone moves to Las Vegas or another city that has lots of empty real-estate, where a new venue could be the center of a shopping/office space/residential mecca.

I am not saying that the Buffalo Bills should move to Harrisburg.  And I'm sure that there isn't the talent for the NFL to grow larger under the current NFL talent development model.  However, the NFL should look at how to grow their talent pool and expand.  One thing that keeps baseball and hockey growing, and keeps soccer the most popular sport in the world, is they way that they develop talent.  The NFL could look at this model, have teams in LA and keep a team in St. Louis and other places.  With the LA model that keeps taxpayer dollars out of sports venues, teams will move at a faster pace.

For us who are fans of that Utah Jazz, this is a warning.  It might be time to look into a new home for the Jazz.  The Vivint Home Solutions arena is one of the oldest in the NBA.  There are markets larger than Salt Lake that do not have an NBA franchise.  Five of them, to be exact.  And there are a couple of cities that are going faster than Salt Lake and will pass up SLC as SLC has passed up several cities in the past 20 years.  Yes, the Jazz are struggling on the court right now.  And no, no one is looking to buy the Jazz and move them.  And I know that the Miller family will never move them, and I don't believe the Miller family is looking to sell them.  But lets not take the matter lightly.  If we are not careful, we could end up rooting for the Kansas City Jazz.  However, to our credit, in spite of the futility on the court in recent seasons, being in one of the smaller markets in the NBA, being in one of the older arenas in the NBA the Jazz are still in the top 10 in NBA attendance.  This is not a team that you move.  There are plenty of places around the Salt Lake Valley where an LA-type development, where you have the NBA arena at the center of a mixed-use facility with shopping, offices and residential units will work.  One place that comes to mind is where the Cottonwood Mall used to be in Holladay.

Age of the venue isn't the only consideration, however.  Its all about the fan experience.  How else do you explain Fenway Park or Madison Square garden?  The mistake that St. Louis made was managing to build a modern stadium that lacked a good fan experience.  That is why the Rams were the lowest attended team in the NFL.  That is why you no longer have a team there.  That is why the Jazz you may find only 600 or so empty seats when you want to see the Utah Jazz.  The fan experience is still positive.  Any new venue, as much as the focus is on luxury suits and revenue, needs to provide a good fan experience as well.  Otherwise, 15 years later, you have to build a new home before the old home is paid for.  St. Louis is an example of how not to do it.

Franchise moves in the NFL are rare, baseball, hockey and basketball have had moves since the Raiders and Rams both left LA.  Personally, I'm not disappointed to see the Rams back in LA.  To me, in my late 40s and old enough to remember Jack Youngblood and Vince Faragamo almost beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XIV, it seems like the Rams belong there and that all is right with the world.

Largest CSA (Combined Statistical Areas) without an NFL Franchise that are larger than Buffalo, the 2nd smallest NFL city.

1.  Portland/Vancouver (Home to NBA Blazers and MLS Timbers)
2.  St. Louis (Home to MLB Cardinals and NHL Blues)
3.  Sacramento (Home to NBA Kings)
4.  Salt Lake City/Provo (Home to NBA Jazz and MLS Real)
5.  Columbus (Home to NHL Blue Jackets and MLS Crew)
6.  San Antonio (Home to NBA Spurs)
7.  Las Vegas
8.  Raleigh/Durham (Home to NHL Hurricanes)
9.  Virginia Beach/Norfolk
10.  Greensboro/Winston-Salem
11.  Louisville
12.  Hartford
13.  Grand Rapids
14.  Greenville/Spartanburg
15.  Oklahoma City
16.  Memphis
17.  Birmingham
18.  Harrisburg

Largest CSA without a MLB franchise that are larger than Milwaukee, Baseball's smallest market.

1.  Portland/Vancouver
2.  Orlando (Home to NBA Magic and MLS Orlando City)
3.  Charlotte (Home to NBA Hornets and NFL Panthers)
4.  Sacramento
5.  Salt Lake City/Provo
6.  Columbus
7.  San Antonio
8.  Las Vegas

Largest CSA without an NBA franchise in the US that are larger than Memphis, the smallest NBA Market

1.  Seattle
2.  St. Louis
3.  Pittsburgh
4.  Kansas City
5.  Columbus
6.  Las Vegas
7.  Cincinnati
8.  Raleigh/Durham
9.  Nashville
10.  Virginia Beach
11.  Greensboro
12.  Jacksonville
13.  Louisville
14.  Hartford
15.  Grand Rapids
16.  Greenville/Spartanburg

(No comments on NHL or MLS, as the percentage of teams in Canada is higher.  Canada doesn't track a CSA.)

Largest CSA without any major sports franchises that are larger than Buffalo

1.  Las Vegas
2.  Virginia Beach/Norfolk
3.  Greensboro/Winston-Salem
4.  Louisville
5.  Hartford
6.  Grand Rapids
7.  Greenville/Spartanburg
8.  Birmingham
9.  Harrisburgh

Oldest NFL stadiums that were built before Rams and Raiders moved out of LA in 1995

1.  LA Colosseum, Rams** (Temporary home of the Rams--replaced by 2019)
2.  Soldier Field, Bears (Renovated in 2003)
3.  Lambeau Field, Packers (Renovated in 2015)
4.  O.co Colosseum, Raiders* (Renovated in 1995)
5.  Qualcomm Stadium, Chargers**
6.  Arrowhead Stadium, Chiefs
7.  Ralph Wilson Stadium, Bills
8.  Superdome, Saints (Renovated 2006)
9.  Sunlife Stadium, Dolphins** (Currently undergoing renovations)
10.  Georgia Dome (New stadium under construction)

*Shared with MLB team
**Shared with NCAA college team

Oldest 10 arenas in the NBA

1.  Oracle Arena, Warriors (New arena under construction)
2.  Madison Square Garden IV, Knicks* (Renovated 2013)
3.  Bradley Center, Bucks
4.  Sleep Train Arena, Kings (New arena under construction)
5.  The Palace of Auburn Hills, Pistons
6.  Target Center, Timberwolves
7.  Vivint Smart Home Arena, Jazz
8.  Talking Stick Resort Arena, Suns
9.  Quicken Loans Arena, Cavaliers
10.  United Center, Bulls*

*Shared with NHL team

Oldest 10 arenas in the NHL

1.  Madison Square Garden IV, Rangers* (Renovated 2013)
2.  Rexall Place, Oilers
3.  Joe Lewis Arena, Red Wings
4.  Saddledome, Flames
5.  Honda Center, Ducks
6.  SAP Center, Sharks
7.  ScottTrade Center, Blues
8.  United Center, Blackhawks*
9.  Rogers Arena, Canucks
10. TD Garden, Bruins*

*Shared with NBA team

Oldest 10 stadiums in Baseball

1.  Fenway Park, Red Sox
2.  Wrigley Field, Cubs
3.  Dodger Stadium, Dodgers
4.  Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Angels
5.  O.co Colosseum, Athletics
6.  Kauffman Stadium, Royals
7.  Rogers Centre, Blue Jays
8.  Topicana Field, Rays
9.  US Cellular Field, White Sox
10.  Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Orioles

Teams that are in danger of moving

NFL:

Raiders
Chargers
Bills
Jaguars

NBA:

Pistons
Grizzlies
Bucks
Timberwolves
Nuggets

MLB:

Rays
Athletics

NHL:

Predators
Panthers
Blue Jackets
Hurricanes

MLS:

Crew

Thoughts on Big 12 Expansion and BYU's quest for Relevance

As many BYU fans noted, the Big 12 receive permission from the NCAA to hold a championship game without splitting into divisions.  That does not mean that they will actually do this, nor does it mean, per se, that they will not add BYU or any other schools and expand.  They only agreed to the principle.

Let me find another metaphor to compare this two.  There once was a band in England called the Beatles.  They were very good.  They were relevant.  They had a friend named Eric Clapton, who was also very good.  When things got a little difficult, they invited Clapton to join with them on a song called "While My Guitar Gently Weeps."  It was one of their best.  There was serious talk of inviting Clapton to join permanently.  To replace either a burned out Lennon or a frustrated Harrison.  But it never happened before the band broke up.  Clapton was just a successful in his own right.

Just because BYU is left out of the Big 12 does not mean that they are a bad school.  Academically, there are only three things that matter for an institution of higher learning.  1.  Are your graduates good potential job candidates?  2.  Are your graduates good candidates for post-graduate programs?  3.  Is the research performed by your institution relevant?  BYU is in pretty good standing in these categories, even better than some athletic P5 institutions.  Athletics probably lags behind the rest of the university.  But this is not a permanent situation.

I believe that BYU sports will eventually get the invite that they want.  It probably will not happen by the end of this decade, but it will happen eventually.  Not every school in every P5 conference will be able to keep up with Jones-es, for lack of a better metaphor.  Sooner or later, someone will drop out.  The cracks are already showing in some places.  BYU should be ready to be a good replacement if, or rather, when that happens.  For now, they need to make the most of their current situation.  They do not need to win every game.  When they lose, they need to look good in losing.  Some goes for Boise State, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Connecticut, Memphis, Houston and everyone else hoping for a shot.  That didn't happen in every game in 2015 for BYU.  It needs to happen in every game in 2016 and beyond.

Looking good in losing means, no shutouts to Michigan without getting a first down.  No "bar fights" in Miami after an overtime loss.  No below the belt punches.  No over exaggerated attempts to cause a fumble.  No throwing garbage on the referees after a close loss.  No more need for coaches or administrators to apologize for anything.  No more being sorry for your lack of preparation.  No more being sorry for your behavior on the field, in the stands, on campus or in town.

Beyond this do some positive things as well.  Show up to every game.  Bring a contingent of enthusiastic and supportive fans to every game, especially bowl games.  Beat the teams you should, and surprise everyone else.  Get players into the NFL.  Win bowl games.  Get players into the NBA.  Go deep in the NCAA tournament.  Play baseball in Omaha.  Win championships in other sports, especially women's sports.  Get boosters to spend money on facilities.

This is what will get BYU over the top.  Do so in a manner that who ever expands next will think of no one but BYU.  Be patient, and eventually, BYU will be where they think they should be.

Utah/BYU basketball game next season canceled...the real reason why.

Utah has cancelled the 2016 game at BYU in basketball, and there are no more game scheduled between the Utes and the Cougars.  Utah is now running with the big boys, and they do not need BYU any longer.  Player safety has nothing to do with it.  Yes, Nick Emery took a cheap shot in the BYU/Utah game a few weeks ago.  Yes, it was uncalled for.  Yes, it COULD have gotten out of hand.  But it did not.  No, this is not a safety issue no matter what Larry K and the rest of the Ute apologist will tell you.

The Running Utes, in case you have not heard, are now in the PAC-12.  BYU is not.  Frankly, BYU is on the same level as Utah State and Weber State, whom Utah no longer plays either, like it or not.  Utah can fill up their non-conference schedule with the likes of Texas Pan-American at the Huntsman Center, and it will not matter.  They will have a home and home every season with UCLA, Arizona, Stanford and Washington.  Playing BYU in Provo, win or lose, does nothing to help Utah get into the NCAA tournament.  In fact, it can only hurt their chances.  Let's say that BYU wins, or even plays Utah close, it will hurt Utah's chances of getting a favorable seed.  If Utah ever goes to Provo again, they better win by at least 15.

Yes, it sounds like sour grapes.  But it is the way the world works in college basketball today.  So what if people don't fill up the Huntsman center.  You have a big TV contract and money will come in, even if only 20 students show up to the game.  BYU, USU and WSU can come to Salt Lake and play the Utes any time they want to.  But don't expect Utah to return the trip.

The NCAA committee will give credit to Utah and Duke for playing at MSG.  But it's too risky for Duke or Utah to play in Provo, or Logan or Ogden.  The committee will not give any P5 school credit for taking this kind of risk.  BYU is lucky to get 1 P5 program in the Marriott Center every two years or so.  Same for Utah State.  And I can't remember the last time someone like Arizona played the Wildcats at the Purple Palace.  It doesn't make sense for a P5 program to do it, so it never happens.

Don't expect this to change if BYU gets into the Big 12.  Utah's home schedule, outside of BYU included Southern Utah, San Diego State, Idaho State, Savannah State, Delaware State and the College of Idaho.  And Utah played only 1 real non-conference road game.  Why?  Because they don't have to.  You will have 11 home games against p5 competition.  No need to kill yourself before they get here.  They will get into the NCAA tournament without putting too much meat in their non-conference schedule.  They can eat dessert before they are finished with dinner.  Everyone does it.  If BYU gets into the Big 12, they will get Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor in the Marriott Center every season.  And if that happens, BYU won't need Utah either.  (It's a two-way street.)  I'd like to think that BYU would continue to play in Logan and Ogden if they get into the Big 12, but they probably won't.

This is likely the end of the BYU/Utah series in basketball.  Because BYU is private, there is really nothing that can be done about it.  At least we have BYU/Utah State, BYU/Weber State, BYU/Utah Valley, Utah State/Weber State, Utah State/Utah Valley and Weber State/Southern Utah home and home for now.  Let's enjoy what we do have.

I don't complain about problems without posing a solution.  Here it is.

1.  The NCAA committee needs to have non-conference road games as a formal tie-breaker to make the NCAA or NIT tournament.  Win or lose, non-conference road games will improve your chances.  Reward schools for taking the risk.

2.  In order to be eligible to win the Old Oquirrh Bucket, the trophy that goes to the best basketball team in Utah, you must play at least one real road game against another school in the state.  If you are Utah, and this trophy is important to you, then you must play at least one road game against another school in the state.

3.  The NCAA could allow more high school recruits to attend games where the two teams are within 100 miles of each-other.

4.  Require that Utah work into the contract of their head basketball coach, one of the highest-paid public employees in the state, bonuses for playing in-state games on the road...win or lose.