Predictions/Expectations for Halloween 2015

All Hallowed's Eve can bring a few surprises in the college football world.  Remember that BYU loss to UTEP in 1985?  Yep, it was on Halloween.  I wonder what is in store for our local football teams.

BYU Cougars

Current record 6-2

Note: The Cougars have a real bye week this week.  There won't be any funky upsets this year.  But the week off can be scary for fans.  Last time there was a bye week around Halloween, BYU lost a couple of players to suspension and dismissal.  Stay away from the donut shop, you Cougars.

Predicted wins:

San Jose State
Fresno State

Toss Up:

Missouri
Utah State

Optimistic prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic prediction: 8-4

Post-season: Vegas

Utah Utes

Current Record 6-1

Note: If Utah was going to lose a game and stay in the playoff chase, that was the game to lose.  They drop to 13.  Teams ranked ahead of them will lose.  Utah will move up, provided they keep winning.  Of course, we all thought the Utes would win this one.

Predicted wins:

Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado

Toss Up:

UCLA

Optimistic prediction: 11-1
Pessimistic prediction: 10-2

This week's game:

Gary Anderson seems to have Utah's number, but that number will not be up this year.  Oregon State doesn't have the talent to run with anyone in the PAC-12 this year.

Utah 45 OSU 10

Post-Season:

PAC-12 championship vs. Stanford, probably a NY-6 Bowl, Rose Bowl if they win.

Utah State Aggies

Current Record 4-3

Note: Perhaps the Aggies were reading this blog last week.  I think that we all thought that they would breeze through the conference schedule, including SDSU.  Well, that is where I was wrong.

Predicted Wins

Wyoming
New Mexico
Nevada

Toss Up

Air Force
BYU

Optimistic Prediction: 9-3
Pessimistic Prediction: 7-5

This week's game:

Yea, there is a reason why the play the game.  There is a reason why they play the game.  There is a reason why they play the game...

USU 45 Wyo 16

Post Season: Poinsettia Bowl

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Current Record 5-2

Predicted Wins

Cal Poly
Northern Arizona

Toss Up

Montana State
Portland State

Optimistic Prediction 9-2
Pessimistic Prediction 7-4

This week's game

It not going to be so easy for SUU the rest of the season.  Hopefully, they have not forgotten how to fight.  But they haven't been in a close game since that opening night in Logan.  This game should be a fight.

SUU 24 CPSLO 14

Post Season: SUU will need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to get into the post-season.  If they win the right three games, they may get to host a first round game.

Weber State Wildcats

Current Record: 4-4

Notes: It's still a rag-tag team in Ogden, and it's a team that has already exceeded most expectations.

Predicted Wins:

UC Davis
Idaho State

Predicted Loss:

Eastern Washington

Expected Outcome: 6-5

This week's game:

The #5 Eagles are not easy to beet in Cheney, even for a team more highly reguarded than Weber State.  The team has no reason to hang their heads.  And they might catch those guys looking past them.  Might.

EWU 45 WSU 21

There will likely be no post-season for WSU.

Swagger Report October 25, 2015...The Day of Reckoning has Arrived

Someone once asked me, "don't you ever get tired of being wrong?"  The great think about Sport is that it is unpredictable in nature.  It wouldn't be any fun to watch if it wasn't.

USC 42 Utah 24

I'm glad that not everyone is panicked about this one.  Was Utah really going to be undefeated this season.  If you had one game to lose, if you are a Ute, it would be this one.  There is enough time left in the season to make up ground.  If Utah can get back to the Top 5 by the end of the regular season, they still have a good chance to make the 4-team playoff, or at least come out smelling like roses (wink, wink).  As long as they win out, and especially as long as they do not lose to someone like Colorado, their post-season standing will be good.

Utah MVP: WR Brittan Covey

San Diego State 48 Utah State 14

This wasn't entirely Utah State being burned out emotionally after the big win over Boise State the week before.  One must give the Aztecs and Donnel Pumphrey proper credit.  They are a talented team, and will probably only get better as the years go on, especially once the Chargers leave San Diego next season for Los Angeles.  It really wasn't just Pumphrey; the only running game Utah State has had all season has been Kent Meyers.  Without any production from other backs in the backfield, USU may be lucky not to trip on any other landmines before the end of the season.  It is also easy to get lulled to sleep when playing in the MW.  There are two virtual bye weeks, games against Wyoming and New Mexico before USU faces another quality team.  The key will be to stay focused.  This might be the first of three games USU gets in San Diego this year.

USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers

BYU 70 Wagner 6

Speaking of a virtual bye week, BYU's came in the form of a game against FCS Wagner, from Staten Island.  The Cougars took care of business and got out of the game without any major injuries.  Then a real bye week before traveling to San Jose.  Cougar fans should remember what happened the last time they took on the Spartans in the Bay Area.

BYU MVP: QB Beau Hodge

Southern Utah 34 UC Davis 6

What is wrong with the T-Brids?  They only scored 34 points against the UCD Aggies.  That should be just fine considering that the season now gets much more difficult.  Ammon Olsen has been getting better as the season has progressed, and the blowouts of the last four games should give the team ample health and confidence as they head into a key stretch that includes games against Montana State, Cal Poly and Portland State.  The Big Sky Conference Championship and a seeding in the 2015 NCAA playoffs are at stake.

SUU MVP: Ammon Olsen

Northern Arizona 52 Weber State 36

Never a disappointment when these two hook up at the Walkup Skydome.  Unfortunately, almost doesn't count in football, but again, Weber is showing improvement over the past few seasons.  If this game had ended 2-minutes earlier, it would not have looked so lop-sided...when the score was 42-36.

WSU MVP: QB Jaidrian Clark

Predictions/Expectations....For October 24

BYU Cougars

Current Record 5-2

Notes: Another suspension on defense should be things interesting going down the stretch.  Ah heck, who am I kidding?  There isn't going to be much very interesting in Provo until they travel to Kansas City to take on Missou.  That is enough time to get backups ready and confident.  In other news...

Probable Wins:

Wagner
San Jose State
Fresno State

Toss Up:

Missouri
Utah State

Optimistic Prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 8-4

Post-Season Outlook: Likely Las Vegas

This week's game:

BYU 65 Wagner 3

Utah Utes

Current Record 6-0

Notes: Utah, at #3, is the highest ranked team to be listed as an underdog in Vegas.  This simply means that more people are betting on the Trojans than the Utes this week.  However, I still would not recommend this as an investment strategy.  In this one, anything could happen.

Probable Wins:

Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado

Toss Up:

USC
UCLA

Optimistic Prediction: 12-0
Pessimistic Prediction: 10-2

Post-Season Outlook: PAC-12 championship game vs. Stanford at Santa Clara, CA.  Bowl, anyone's guess at this point.

This week's game:

Being the head coach at USC is kind of like being Satan's major domo in Hell.  There is no room for failure and no margin of error.  That is why people would be unwise to think that this is automatic win for anyone.  Utah is the real deal, and USC should still be respected.  The more talented team is the Trojans.  But that doesn't matter a who lot this week.  Especially if they can't stop Mr. Booker.

Utah 24 USC 21

Utah State Aggies

Current Record: 4-2

Notes: After blowing out Boise State in Logan, the Aggies are ready for a NY-6 Bowl, as soon as they climb the rankings and get ranked ahead of Houston, Memphis, Temple and Toledo.  Three members of that quartet are in the same conference, are unbeaten and haven't played each-other yet.  In other news, Meyers is doing so well, why start Chukie now?

Probable Wins:

San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Air Force
Nevada

Toss Up:

BYU

Optimistic Prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 9-3

Post season outlook: Unless those mentioned in the paragraph above lose twice, Aggies fans are looking to spend the holidays in San Diego.

This week's game:

The Aggies travel to San Diego, at school that USU has only beaten once in their prior 11 meetings.  They met in San Diego in 2010 and were on the short end of a 41-7 drubbing.  Circumstances have changed, somewhat, since then.  I don't think this will be so easy for SDSU this time.

USU 32 SDSU 24

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Current Record: 4-2

Notes: I do not think that 4 consecutive wins, each by 40+ points, has yet got the attention of anyone outside of SUU's next opponent.  The T-Birds are still outside the top-25.  It probably won't help a lot to do the same this week, as the opponent is 1-6 UC Davis.  However, everyone will notice if they lose.  But don't worry, there will be opportunities to impress the poll voters yet this season.

Probable Wins:

UC Davis
Northern Arizona

Probable Loss:

Portland State

Toss Up:

Cal Poly
Montana State

Optimists Prediction: 8-3
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5

This week's game:

SUU 38 UCD 3

Weber State Wildcats 

Current Record: 4-3

Notes: If WSU doesn't score another touchdown this year, and that is not completely outside the realm of possibility (We all know what they did against SUU.), then this season has already been a success.  After 3 consecutive seasons with only 2 victories, WSU is now over .500 past the midway point of the season for the first time since 2010.  They will need a little bit more luck to get their first post-season appearance since 2008.

Probable Wins:

UC Davis
Idaho State

Probable Loss:

Eastern Washington

Toss Up:

Northern Arizona

Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5

This Weeks Game:

It is always fun whenever WSU travels to the Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff to take on the Lumberjacks.  Although this year's game should be more of a defensive battle than in past seasons.

NAU 17 WSU 13

Swagger Report...October 17, 2015

In the State of Utah, we love winners...who doesn't.  But we all were winners this week.  And we had three 4th quarter comeback wins and 2 blowouts.

BYU 38 Cincinnati 24

For 45 minutes, it looked like the Bearcats would rule the day or the cats who are not the love child of some ungodly union.  But Tanner Mangum has ice water running through his veins.  But averaging out his game, he was awful for 45 minutes and spectacular in the final act.  Particularly on the 4th quarter touchdown pass to Kurtz, which traveled 50 in the air.  The only offensive player who was consistent for BYU was WR Nick Kurtz.

BYU MVP: WR Nick Kurtz

Utah State 52 Boise State 20

Who needs Chukie Keeton when your defense can produce 8 turnovers?  Even I could lead an offense with that kind of an advantage.  I'm not sure if this was a case of Boise not properly prepared for the game or if the Broncos had turkey sandwiches for their pre-game meal.  It certainly looked as if the once-mighty Broncos just sleep-walked their way through this game, and were shell-shocked by half time.  The MVP for this one goes to Ricky Ali'ifua who got the whole thing started.

USU MVP: DE Ricky Ali'ifua

Utah 32 Arizona State 18

I can think of a way to bring Utah fans back to earth...this game was so eerily similar to BYUs win over Cincinnati.  OK, you probably don't care.  What will probably make you happy is that Devontae Booker, according to ESPN, has cracked the top 6 of the Heisman race.  Of course, he would need four people to suffer season-ending injuries to have a chance at winning, but it shows that the Utes are getting a lot of national attention.  What really matters is where Utah is ranked when it is all said and done.

Utah MVP: RB Devontae Booker

SUU 44 Sacramento State 0

The Thunderbirds continue their roll through their schedule with their 4th consecutive blowout.  It brings a lot of confidence and high expectations, something that fans should be weary of.  It will not be this easy going forward as the meat of the conference schedule is now upon them.  OK, maybe there will be one more easy game before things get much more difficult.  Currently, SUU is in 1st place in the Big Sky Conference.

SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen

Weber State 25 North Dakota 24

Weber State's offense finally came to life this season, as the 'Cats turned a 17-3 deficit into a 25-24 victory.  This moves WSU to above .500 for the first time in 5 seasons.  WSU is still in contention for the Big Sky Conference race.  They are currently in 2nd, but trail SUU who owns the tiebreaker.  The Big Sky Conference Champion gets an automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs.

WSU MVP: QB Jadrian Clark

The Effect of Utah State's Win over Boise State

Let me first say that I was very impressed by how Utah State crushed Boise State on Friday night in Logan.  Forcing 8 turnovers is quite the defensive feat.  I also expect that Utah State will breeze through the rest of their conference schedule, with the only real test being BYU on the last weekend of the regular season.  And I expect that the MW Championship game will be in Logan, which USU will also win easily.  The game between BYU and USU in Logan will likely feature two ranked teams, if BYU gets by Missouri in Kansas City four weeks from Today.  (Before BYU travels to Missou, they have FCS Wagner and a bye week followed by a trip to San Jose.)

But the reality is that USU probably cost the MW a chance at a big payday.  I do not foresee a 2-loss Utah State being chosen for the Fiesta Bowl over an unbeaten or 1-loss Houston or Memphis or Temple.  The AAC is simply a better conference than the MW this year.  Only if this trio ends up losing 2 or more games by the end of the season will the playoff committee consider the Aggies.  I am not saying that USU does not deserve the honor, but there will likely be a team emerge for the AAC which will deserve it more.  Even if the game in Logan between the Aggies is a showdown between 2 ranked teams and college game day is there, USU will not get to the Fiesta Bowl if Houston remains unbeaten.

There is the outside possibility that the Playoff Committee will select two teams from the G-5 conferences.  However, you would probably get better odds of the Jazz winning the NBA title this season than that happening.  There are a lot of P5 schools still unbeaten this late into the season, and the committee will have a lot good choices.  Is is outside of the realm of possibility?  Of course not.  We are only halfway through the season.  But the chances are slim.

The other problem for USU is Utah.  Not that the Utes dealt USU a loss, but that Utah has real possibility of playing in the Fiesta Bowl this year.  (Winning the PAC-12 south, but losing to Stanford in the championship.)  The Committee is not going to put a USU-Utah rematch in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here is what I Foresee: the chairpersons of both the Las Vegas Bowl and Hawaii Bowl will be in Logan on November 28.  If BYU wins, then the Cougars will immediately and officially be invited to the Las Vegas Bowl.  If Utah State wins, BYU will be officially, but subtlety invited to the Hawaii Bowl and representatives of the Las Vegas Bowl will show up in the USU locker room and say, "We'll be back here next week."  In other words, the winner of the BYU/USU game goes to Las Vegas and the loser goes to Hawaii.

Here is what needs to happen for the Aggies to get to an NY-6 Bowl.

1) USU must win all of the rest of their games.  This goes without saying, but you have to say it anyway.

2) Houston, Memphis and Temple each need to have at least one loss and probably two losses before the end of the regular season to ensure that whoever wins the American Athletic Conference is ranked below the Aggies.  There is a good chance that the winner of the AAC will play a ranked team in their championship game.

3) BYU needs to be ranked by the time they travel to Logan.  This is a strength of schedule argument.  This would give USU another signature win over a ranked opponent.  It will strengthen the resume.  BYU is having a decent season, and beating and 8-3 BYU may be good enough, but if BYU is 9-2 going into Logan, all the better for USU if they win.

4) Utah needs to make the National Championship playoffs.  This is mostly a strength of schedule argument as well.  This would both eliminate the possibility of a USU/Utah rematch and put the loss in Salt Lake City as a "good" loss.

The reason for #3 and #4 is the weakness of the MWC this year and the relative strength of the AAC.  It is possible that USU could finished ranked above the eventual AAC champion in the AP and Coaches polls, but still lose out on the computer component.  #3 and #4 will help overcome that relative strength of schedule argument.

On the other hand, an 11-2 Utah State still has better odds at an NY-6 bowl than a 10-2 BYU will have this year.  There is virtually no chance the Cougars will be there.  So USU fans, at least have have that going for you to hang on to.  In Logan, at least there is hope.

Predictions/Expectations 10/15/2015 edition

Utah Utes

Current Record: 5-0

Notes: Yes, if I was still doing power rankings, Utah would be on top of the PAC-12.  However, not everyone is on the bandwagon, yet.  Jerry Palm has no PAC-12 team in the playoffs, with Stanford going to the Rose Bowl and Utah going to the Fiesta Bowl.

Expected Wins:

Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado (Least difficult remaining game)

Toss Up:

USC
UCLA (Most difficult remaining game)

Optimists Outcome: 12-0
Pessimists Outcome: 10-2

Post-Season Outlook: It may be time to get ready for a trip to Santa Clara to the PAC-12 championship game.  It is within smelling distance.

This week's game:

Utah has yet to beat Arizona State since joining the PAC-12.  The last two games have been close, however, but still no victory.  Not to mention, this is a trap game for the Utes, between a good Cal team and a still to be respected USC.    If I was to mark a breakthrough for Utah in the PAC-12 it would be winning this game on Saturday.  Utah should get some payback and breakthrough this week.

Utah 34 Arizona State 20

BYU Cougars

Current Record: 4-2

Notes: Injuries and suspensions are nothing new in Provo.  A lot has been made of Taysom Hill, but the defensive depth has been decimated.  That is part of the reason East Carolina almost beat BYU last week, and why almost nothing will be easy going forward.

Expected Wins

Cincinnati
Wagner (Least difficult remaining game)
San Jose State
Fresno State

Toss Up

Missouri
Utah State (Most difficult remaining game)

Optimists Outcome: 10-2
Pessimists Outcome: 8-4

Post-Season Outlook: Vegas Baby.

This week's game:

I would have been flamed like a Whopper if I would have told you at the beginning of the season that Cincinnati was BYU's most important game.  Let me tell you why.  If the Big 12 expands, there are three ways to go.  BYU/Boise State or Memphis/Cincinnati or UCF/USF.  If BYU wants to take a step to remove doubt about where the Big 12 should expand to, this game is critical.  BYU's defensive depth means that the offense is going to have to string together long-sustaining drives.  Something they are not that good at.  This one will be closer than it should be, and high scoring.

BYU 48 Cincy 42

USU Aggies

Current Record: 3-2

Notes:  Chuckie will be back for Boise and USU will pull off an upset.  Well, no.  But expect the Aggies to breeze through the rest of the conference schedule.

Expected Wins:

San Diego State
Wyoming (Least difficult remaining game)
New Mexico
Nevada

Expected Loss:

Boise State (Most Difficult remaining game)

Toss Up:

BYU

Optimists Outcome: 8-4
Pessimists Outcome: 7-5

This Week's Game:  This is not your father's Boise State team.  This one may not be over by half-time, USU should make a game of it for a while, but I expect BSU will pull away late.

Boise State 34 USU 23

Post Season Outlook: Aggie fans should feel safe in booking a flight to the Poinsettia Bowl.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Current Record: 3-2

Yes, SUU has won 3 straight games, none of them closer than 4 touchdowns, but I'm not exactly putting them in the field of 24 yet.  They still have a lot of work to do.

Expected Wins:

Sacramento State (Least difficult remaining game)
UC Davis
Northern Arizona

Expected Loss:

Portland State (Most difficult remaining game)

Toss Up:

Montana State
Cal Poly

Optimists Outcome: 8-3
Pessimists Outcome: 6-5

Post Season Outlook: Beat Montana State and Cal Poly and I can just about guarantee SUU will be in the NCAA football championship tournament, provided they don't trip up against Sacramento State, UCD or NAU.

This Week's Game:  I expect that the current SUU win streak, no blowout streak, will continue.  They haven't yet got the attention of the rest of the conference.  Even if they did, Sacramento State doesn't exactly have the power to make a statement in Cedar City.  If this game is close, it's because SUU plays down to their level.

SUU: 45 Sac State: 12

Weber State Wildcats

Current Record: 3-3

Weber State was able to pull off a big, or perhaps not so big, upset of Montana in Missoula this last week to even their record.  And they didn't even have to get good play from the quarterback to do it.  Weber can win if they simply don't turn the ball over.

Expected Wins:

UC Davis (Least difficult remaining game)
Idaho State

Expected Loss:

Eastern Washington (Most difficult remaining game)

Toss Up:

North Dakota
Northern Arizona

Optimists Outcome: 7-4
Pessimists Outcome: 5-6

Post Season outlook: To even be considered for the NCAA playoffs, they would have to win out.  But on the bright side, at least we are still talking about the possibility.

This Week's Game: North Dakota, like Weber State, is also are having a season that is reminiscent of a Katy Perry song.  According to Sagarin, the only difference between the Wildcats and the No-Names is that WSU will be home.  If the 'Cats do not turn the ball over, they may eek out another close one.

Weber State 27 North Dakota 23

Swagger Report...October 11, 2015

BYU 45 East Carolina 38

I thought that BYU would lose a close one this week.  For a while, this looked like an overtime game, but the Cougars pulled out another last-minute touchdown out of the hat and won.  Tanner Mangum played with a pulled hammy on the last drive after Beau Hodge was ineffective and gave ECU a short field for their game tying touchdown.  ECU has a good offense and a lot of people who are dissing the Cougars after this win are not giving the Pirates their deserved props.  Obviously, they have some work to do on defense.  BYU is 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown this year, while 1-1 in other games.

BYU MVP: RB Algernon Brown

Utah 30 California 24

This year, when the Utes have needed a dramatic last-minute play, it has been the defense to get the job done.  Utah is 2-0 in such games so far this year.  Winning the games that one should win a a mark of a good team.  Winning the games that a team should when when you have the target strapped to you back?  Well, that's a different kind of Hell that only Kyle Whittingham really knows right now.  And it will get worse that the season goes on.

Utah MVP: RB Devonte Booker

Utah State 56 Fresno State 16

Perhaps you are familiar with the new march that Weird Al Yankovic released about a year ago.  That song perfectly describes what USU vs. Fresno this year.  For those of you not familiar with it, here it is.  The question is, how did Fresno State get so bad so quickly?  Well, who cares.

USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers

Weber State 24 Montana 21

Weber State notched their first win first win in Missoula since 1987 as Josh Kaleamakia kicked the game winner in OT.  WSU had the Grizzlies bottled up in the second half, until the game was tied with about 4 minutes left.  Montana, who had the first possession of overtime, fumbled on the first play, allowing the Wildcats to come away with the victory.

WSU MVP: RB Eric Wilkes

Predictions/Expectations October 10

BYU

Note:  Still don't know exactly what to expect.  Young team, a lot of returned missionaries.  Inconsistency and unpredictability for most of the rest of the season.

Current Record: 3-2

Probable Wins

Wagner (Easiest game left this season)
San Jose State
Fresno State

Toss Up

East Carolina
Cincinnati
Missouri (Most difficult game left this season)
Utah State

Pessimists Prediction: 6-6
Optimists Prediction: 10-2

This week:

East Carolina has a couple of quarterbacks that could give the BYU defense fits.  One runs real well, and the other passes real well.  But not like Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum.  This is more like Riley Nelson and Christian Stewart.  That could be bad enough for BYU.  They will need to force turnovers and score in the red zone to win.  There are two things that happen to BYU each season under Bronco.  One, is that they get blown out by a P5 school, and the other is that they lose a game that they should win.  This could be that game.

Prediction: East Carolina 27 BYU 24

Post Season Outlook: Hawaii Bowl

Utah

Note:  Even a duffer like me knows not to expect an outcome like Oregon every week.  Hopefully, the week it catches up to them won't be this week.  After a week off, the team looks like they have come back to Earth, even if the fans are still...and for the life of me ,drop it...rubbing the nose of BYU fans in it.  This game against Cal will not be easy, and there has been a ton of weirdness in the PAC-12 this year.  There is a lot a stake.  Utah can firmly take control of the drivers seat in the PAC-12 with a win over Cal.  This will likely not be the week that Utah embarrasses themselves.

Current Record: 4-0

Probable Wins
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado (Easiest game left this season)

Toss Up
USC (Most difficult game left this season)
Arizona
UCLA

Pessimists Prediction: 9-3
Optimists Prediction: 12-0

This Week:

I don't know many looking for Cal to upset Utah at home this week.  I'm not that bold either.  It probably won't be a close game, but it won't be a blowout.  Just some good Utah defense.

Prediction: Utah 34 Cal 20

Post-season Outlook: I still think they get Stanford in the PAC-12 championship game.  I can't predict who will be the host.  Utah is ranked higher in the polls, but the Cardinal are ranked higher by the computers.  Now that USC and UCLA have felt the sting of the upset bug, Utah would probably get the Rose Bowl if they lose this game.

Utah State

Note:  See, told you it wouldn't be so bad without Chuckie.  And they have a team this week that knows what it is like to fall hard, fast and mighty.  No, they are not playing BYU this week.  It's the Fresno State Bulldogs, who have fallen from contender to doormat in the MW West very quickly.  Yes, they might even be worse than Hawaii.  USU will need the rest to get ready for Boise State next week.

Current Record: 2-2

Probable Wins

Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming (Easiest game left this season)
New Mexico
Nevada

Probable Loss

Boise State (Most difficult game left this season)

Toss Up

Air Force
BYU

Pessimists Prediciton: 7-5
Optimists Prediction: 9-3

This game:  This one will be ugly no matter the score

USU 45 Fresno State 10

Post Season Outlook: Poinsettia Bowl

Southern Utah

Sometimes things just go your way, and that is what happened in Ogden last week.  This game probably shouldn't have been this one-sided.  Everyone should know it.  Take a nice week off.

Current Record: 3-2

Probable Wins

Sacramento State (Easiest game remaining)
UC Davis
Northern Arizona

Probable Loss

Eastern Washington (Most difficult game remaining)

Toss Up

Montana State
Cal Poly

Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
Optimists Prediction: 8-3

Post Season Outlook: SUU will probably need to get 8 wins to even be considered for an NCAA bid this year.  At least it is still withing a the realm of possibility.

Weber State

Current record 2-3

Turnovers have been the bane of existence in Ogden for years.  It was really bad last week.  Suck it up and go for it again guys.

Probable Wins

UC Davis
Idaho State

Probable Losses

Montana
Eastern Washington

Toss Up

North Dakota
Northern Arizona

Pessimists Prediction: 4-7
Optimists Prediction: 6-5

This week: Well, it's Montana in Missoula, the best environment in the Big Sky Conference for everyone except the opposing team.  It would really be something is Weber came home with a win, even though it's not your father's Grizzlies.

Montana 35 Weber State 13

Swagger Report after October 3 games

BYU 30 Connecticut 13

BYU pulled away from UConn in the 4th quarter, but in all fairness, this game should have been over long before that.  BYU couldn't finish drives in the fist half, and could have had a commanding 35-7 lead.  This is where the inexperience of the freshman quarterback hurt them.  They do have better teams than UConn on their schedule and could run into another road bump if they do not show improvement.

BYU MVP: QB Tanner Mangum

Utah State 33 Colorado State 18

Kent Meyers only accounted for 137 yards in the air, but did get 191 yards on the ground in a Taysom Hill-like effort.  Utah State pulled away from Colorado State in the second half of a thunderstorm delayed game.

USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers

Southern Utah 44 Weber State 0

The most unpredictable conference in the country is the Big Sky Conference.  Weber State and Southern Utah were supposed to be neck and neck.  SUU had 44 points.  24 of those came after Weber State turnovers.  Another 7 came on a punt return.  Four consecutive drives in the 2nd half for Weber State ended with a turnover.  Twice Weber State drove into the purple zone and came away with 0 points.  Other than that, it still wasn't as close as predicted.  If it wasn't for WSU miscues, the game would have ended with a 13-6 SUU victory.

SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
WSU MVP: LB Emmett Tela