Bronco Mendenhall in a recent interview says that BYU has 3 years to make it into a power 5 conference. What if it doesn't happen? I envision 3 different scenarios.
1. Remain Independent.
As long as Independence works like it has, there is probably nothing wrong with it. What is BYU losing when they remain independent. You have the season loaded with its hardest games in September. In 2020, BYU's home opener is Michigan State. They also have Missouri coming to Provo in October. That is sure to get 60,000+ to Provo for each game. There may not be Power 5 money, but at least that is something to look forward to.
Continued independence may sit better with fans if BYU can break out of the 8-5 and minor bowl rut that they have been in. A victory over Utah will help. There is a lot that BYU can do over the next three years to convince themselves and fans that long-term independence isn't bad. But will they?
2. Join the MWC.
I do not see this happening unless the MWC gets desperate. The MWC is not a power conference, as we all know, but right now, they don't need BYU. Certainly, someone is going to have to buy BYU out of many of those non-conference games to get BYU into a non-power conference. The MWC doesn't have the money to do that. In 2020, probably a game at Northern Illinois and one other game would have to be bought out of. Someone will have to pay the fee, and it would likely need to be the conference. It's not as bad as I am making it sound, as they could probably minimize a fee by providing that non-conference opponent with a substitute for BYU.
We often talk like going back to the MWC will be easy, but it is not as easy as it sounds. It's not like it will be BYU's choice just to join their former conference and they will welcome BYU back like the father in the Prodigal Son parable. The other MW schools will have a say in the matter. Craig Thompson, commissioner, wasn't happy with the way that BYU just up and left. And there are some coaches, like San Diego State's Rocky Long, who have been publicly critical of BYU's decision to leave.
Although the MWC is has a strong flavor in BYU schedules the next few years, it is not the former MWC conference mates that are providing the games. Boise State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Utah State, Nevada and Hawaii weren't in the MWC with the Cougars. San Diego State, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado Sate and Wyoming have yet to show up on BYU's regular season schedule. (BYU and SDSU met in a bowl game.) If you think BYU will have a warm welcome back to their old conference, you are probably mistaken. It seems that those other schools still hold a grudge against BYU, and probably will for a very long time.
I only see the happening if enough MW schools follow UAB to the realms of the non-football world. That is probably more of a reality than the loss of lesser P5 programs. Schools like New Mexico and Wyoming are more likely to stop playing football than schools like Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. The lesser P5 programs can rely on money from their conference mates. But MWC schools can't. That kind of money isn't there. In 3 years, the MWC may be fighting for its survival as a football conference. If that happens, the survivors may welcome BYU back with open arms.
3. Form a new conference
If there is no further action from the elite conferences, I imagine BYU asking the stronger members of the American and the stronger members of the MW to get together to form a new conference. Try this one on for size.
East Division
Memphis
Houston
Tulsa
SMU
Army
Navy
West Division
Air Force
BYU
Boise State
Colorado State
Fresno State
Utah State
This is no prediction, just an example. I think, however, that everyone will be weary of joining BYU for a conference again, unless, again, they are desperate. In fact, it may be more difficult for BYU to lure any of these schools out of their current conferences than it would be to talk a Power-5 conference in taking them on. BYU turned their back on the members of the former Skyline Conference to form the WAC and left Montana and Defending Conference Champion Utah State behind. (Montana was forced to drop a division because of this.) BYU turned their back on the old 16-member WAC to form the MWC and left long time conference members UTEP, Hawaii, and Fresno State behind. BYU turned their back on the MWC. BYU doesn't have a good history of being easy to play with. When things don't go so well, it's BYU that picks up their marbles and goes home. People aren't going to forget this.
4. American Conference
There was talk of BYU joining the Big East with Boise State and San Diego State before the Catholic non-football schools left. This is likely the reason why BSU decided to back out of that deal. It is not likely that the AAC will want BYU unless someone comes in with them. Because Navy is joining this conference as a football only-member, perhaps Air Force could be persuaded to come with the Cougars.
This could happen, especially if Cincinnati and Memphis join the Big 12. And it is more likely than any of the other conference scenarios. But the AAC is not a power conference and bringing in the Cougars would have to be a gradual thing, until BYU plays all of their committed games, or other arrangements are made. It will not be--hey were were Independent in 2018 and in 2019, we are in the AAC. It would be more like this: the AAC fills out the remaining 4 games in 2019. 5 games in 2020 and beginning in 2021, BYU is a full member of the conference.
My two cents worth
BYU made their own bed when they became independent. Perhaps the idea was to audition for a larger conference. The audition may be on the verge of failure. Maybe it is time to give up on independence, but when you don't make the rules what can you do? Perhaps BYU needs to sleep in this bed longer than they want to. Perhaps they can ride out independence for a few years longer than planned. Perhaps they will need to. Maybe when Bronco Mendenhall said, "we have 3 years," he really meant, "I have 3 years." And and the end of those three years, BYU could still be independent. But Tom Holmoe and Bronco Mendenhall could be on their way out.
In reality, Bronco should think a little harder before opening his mouth. I can say what I want in this blog. But Bronco doesn't have that luxury. In reality, it make take more than 5 years for BYU to get where they want to be. Their timelines need to be a bit more flexible.
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