Comments on BYU's future.

I haven't commented about BYU's Big 12 aspirations because I've been waiting for it to all play out.  But this is going to take a more than just a few weeks.  It may take years.

When Bronco Mendenhall says, "we would love to be in the Big 12," it's kind of like my wife saying, "we would love to live in Federal Heights."  Anything can happen, I'm still young enough, home price may fall again.  However, I think that BYU has a slightly better chance at getting into the Big 12 than I do of changing my zip code to 84113.  And one should never say never when it comes to the PAC-12 as well.

My hunch, however, is that the Power Five conference want to whittle down rather than add more members.  But don't look for smaller, private colleges to be whittled out.  There is really only one target that fits the bill that private schools can't compete.  That distinction belongs to Wake Forest, the school with the worst record in the ACC.

Northwestern does not have the worst all-time Big 10 record.  Indiana is one school that is worse.

Vanderbilt has been better that Mississippi State all-time.

Stanford has one of the better all-time records in the PAC-12.

Baylor and TCU are both much better than Iowa State.

I also suspect that the SEC will never drop Mississippi State.

If it ever comes to this, expect that those schools will not got down without a large fight.  There is a lot of money at stake.  There may be, in fact, more consolodation to bring the number of conferences down to 4.

But one does not become elite by welcoming any Tom, Dick and Harry.  A country club doesn't become exclusive by adding Joe the Plumber.  If the number will not go down, then it will be capped at some point.  That  number is likely 80, which is 16 by 5.  This means that there may be only 12 slots left, if you count Notre Dame as being in.  4 in the PAC-12, 2 in the SEC and 6 in the Big 12.  There may also be a spending frenzy to be included, something that the LDS Church may not want.

BYU is smart to try and hitch themselves to the Big 12 wagon.  I think if the PAC-12 had not chosen Utah, BYU would be in that conference today.  If the PAC-12 wanted BYU, they would already be there.  The Cougars have played or has scheduled everyone in that conference except for Oregon and Colorado since becoming independent.

But the most important factor for BYU to be in the Big 12 may be to find an acceptable travel partner.  Someone else, nearby, who could prove their worth to the PAC-12.  Who could it be?  If Boise State can win without Chris Peterson, then we may know the answer.  It could also be Colorado State or UNLV, who are both spending a lot of money to either improve or build new facilities.  It could be Air Force, who has a tradition like non other in sports.  Finally, it could be Houston to get back some of the recruiting market lost by Texas A & M.  It could be that the Big 12 goes from 10 to 14 adding BYU, UNLV, Houston and Cincinnati.

It could also be that the Big 12 goes from 10 to 0.  It could be that the SEC adds Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  Followed by the PAC 12 adding Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Kansas State, leaving Baylor, TCU and Iowa State out of the picture.

Either way, BYU will not be independent, in my opinion, after 2020.  I also suspect that one way or another BYU will have conference foes like Baylor and TCU.  The real question is whether or not they are in the elite tier or the next one.