Sunday, September 22, 2013

Revised Outlook for the 2013 season.

BYU

Current record 1-2. 

Projected wins: Middle Tennessee, Houston, Idaho State
Projected losses: Utah State, Georgia Tech, Boise State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Nevada

Likely finish 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 7-5
Worst Case Seconario: 2-10

Comments: Go fast and go hard is not going anywhere very fast, and it's been hard to watch.  BYU may have lost their most exciting offensive player for the rest of the season, but possibly forever.  Cody Hoffman and Kyle Van Noy must be regretting thier decisions to pass up the NFL and come back.  It's time for BYU fans to embrace Women's soccer, forget football, look forward to basketball and begin the debate about who should replace Bronco Mendenhall.  If Mendenhall walks the talk, he should walk away from Provo after this season is over.

Utah

Current Record 3-1

Projected wins: Colorado
Projected losses: UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Washington State

Likely finish 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 3-9

Comments: Utah has wins against other in-state teams to hang their hat on, but the PAC-12 is brutal this year.  Very brutal.  Even Washington State is improved.  It is Utah's unfortunate luck that they don't have California on the schedule this year, or had Arizona or Washington State at home.  If they did, I would feel better about a 6-6 season.  If Utah is going to improve their prospects in 2013, they have to be more complete on defense.  Utah fans should be thankful that Utah State can't run and BYU can't pass or their season would be a complete disaster.

Utah State

Current Record: 2-2

Projected wins: San Jose State, BYU, New Mexico, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming
Projected losses: Boise State
Projected Bowl: Armed Forces

Likely finish: 10-3, with a bowl win
Best case scenario: 11-3, with a loss in the conference championship game and a bowl win
Worst case scenario: 6-7 with a bowl game loss

Thank goodness for the MWC and that most of the difficult part of the season is behind them.  The only worries for Aggie fans should be that it is too easy after Boise State rolls into town and someone on the underside of the MWC pulls and upset and whether or not Chuckie comes back for his senior season.  True, Joe Hill has been no replacement for Kerwynn Williams, but down the stretch, the Chuckie Show won't need a running game.

Southern Utah

Current record: 3-1
Projected wins: Northern Colorado, UC Davis, Portland State, Idaho State, Weber State, Northern Arizona
Projected losses: Eastern Washington, Montana State
Projected Post-Season: 1st round of NCAA FCS playoffs.

Likely finish: 8-4 with a loss in the playoffs
Best case scenario: 11-3, making it to the FCS round of 8.
Worst case scenario: 6-6

Freshman Raysean Martin is well on his way to becomming the Big Sky Conference newcommer of the year, and it is looking good for SUU to finally make the post-season for the first time in school history.  Just as long as they don't end up on the losing end of a barn-burned like they had with Sacramento State.  I don't think the staff in Cedar City has the experience necessary to make them winners in the post-season yet, but as long as they can continue to recruit players like Martin, the future looks for the school that is really down south.

Weber State

Current record: 1-4
Projected Wins: Sacramento State, Idaho State
Projected Losses: Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Montana State, Portland State, Southern Utah, Montana

Likely finish: 3-9
Best case scenario: 5-7
Worst case scenario: 1-11

Weber caught Stephen F. Austin by surprise in the first game of the season.  They will have to find a way to do this again if coach Jody Sears is to reach his contractural goal of 4 wins this season.  They will have to find their offense again.

Which of Utah's Head Coaches will return in 2014.

Bronco Mendenhall: 50-50 chance he will be back in 2014.  Someone will have to be held responsible for the debacle that is BYU's offense this year.  There is a good chance that Bronco Mendenhall will fall on his own sword after this season because he is that kind of guy.  I doubt that he will be fired or forced to resign.  Gary Crowton got three losing seasons in a row before he was cut loose.  Bronco doesn't need to worry about employment.  BYU's defense is good enough that Bronco will become a defensive coordinator somewhere next year, possibly in the PAC-12 or even in the NFL.

Likely replacement if Bronco goes: Current Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell.  Other potential replacements: Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator Darel Bevel, Navy Head Coach Ken Nuimatalolo, Utah Defensive Kalani Sitake, Southern Utah Head Coach Ed Lamb

Kyle Whittingham: It's possible that if Utah gets a bagel in PAC-12 play that Whit will be gone.  But that probably won't happen and Whit will be back in 2014.  Next year will be his win or else season. 

Likely replacemetnt if Whit gets the boot: Current Co-Offensive Coordinator Dennis Ericson.  Other possibilities--list of all of the current offensive and defensive coordinators in upper half the PAC-12.

Matt Wells: You've got to be kidding...100% chance Matt Wells will be back at Utah State in 2014.

Ed Lamb: 65% chance he will be back in Cedar City next season.  There is a good chance he will be somewhere else.  That is the reality of success.  Unless it's BYU, I don't think that Lamb will be a head coach somewhere else.  It is more likely he will become a defensive coordinator at the FBS level and work his way up to being a head coach at the FBS level. 

Likely replacement for Lamb: Offensive Coordinator Steve Clark.  Other possibilities include Defensive Coordinator Justin Ena, and former successful Big Sky Conference head coaches like Paul Wulff and soon-to-be former UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck.

Jody Sears: It's in the contract, if Weber doesn't get 4 wins this season, he can be fired without a buyout.  Doesn't look good right now.

Likely replacement for Sears: Possibilities include assistant coaches from around the Big Sky including Steve Clark and Justin Ena or Mountain West Conference assistant coaches or former successful Big Sky Head Coaches like Paul Wulff.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

A bit of an overreaction on this blog here my friend. BYU will beat Nevada. I will bet you any amount of money you want. They also have a good shot at beating Boise State since they are having a down year. I agree with you on USU and Utah.
I don't think SUU is as good as you think they are. They lose to WSU, MSU, and NAU.

Ben H said...

SUU was very lucky in how the schedule worked out for them this year. No Montana, Cal Poly nor North Dakota. They are not as good as their final record will be. They are just lucky. And sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.

Weber is just unlucky this year.

Usually in WSU/SUU the road team wins. It's happened at least the last 3 times.