Thursday, July 4, 2013

BYU's 2014 Bowl Possibilities in 2014...Not Looking good.

I am not really an expert at reading the college football tea leaves, it is just my hobby.  However, BYU fans should be concerned about the real possibility that the Cougars will enter the 2014 season without a guaranteed slot for a bowl eligible effort.  It is very possible that the Cougars, even with a 10 or 11 win season, would end up spending the holidays at home.

College football gets a little simpler in 2014.  The BCS is gone, replaced by a 4-team playoff.  There are 6 bowls that participate in the semi-finals.  After the 2014 season, the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl are the semi-final bowls.  After the 2015 season, it's the Fiesta Bowl and the Orange Bowl.  After the 2016 season it's the Cotton Bowl and the Peach Bowl.  What you have is you will have 3 bowls in the semi-final rotation that have conference tie-in, and 3 bowls that do not.  It was planned that way.  When the Rose Bowl has the Semi-finals, the Pac-12/Big Ten tie-in goes to the Fiesta Bowl.  After the 2014 Season, the PAC-12 and Big 10 will play in the Fiesta Bowl.  There will be no at-large fill ins as there was with the BCS except in years when neither the Rose Bowl nor the Fiesta Bowl will have the semi final.  Therefore, there will be one of the 6 semi-final bowls that will have the liberty to select whom they will.  In the 2014-15 season, that will be the Peach Bowl.  But do not count on them picking the Cougars unless they finish in the top-6.

Here is how the rotation works.

 
Bowl  Conference #1 Conference #2 Playoff Rotation At-large rotation
Rose Big 10 Pac-12 2014-15 None
Orange ACC/Notre Dame Big 10/SEC 2015-16 None
Cotton Big 12 SEC 2015-16 2016-17, Alternate for Sugar Bowl in 2014-15
Fiesta Big 10 PAC-12 2016-17 2015-16, Alternate to Rose Bowl in 2014-15
Sugar Big 12 SEC 2014-15 None
Peach ACC/Notre Dame Big 10/SEC 2016-17 2014-15, Alternate to Orange Bowl in 2015-16




Here is how the rest of the bowls will shake out:


Sun PAC-12 ACC
Russell Athletic ACC Big 10
Gator ACC/Big 10 SEC
Capital One Big 10 SEC
Liberty ACC?/American? Big 12? SEC? C-USA?
Independence ACC? Big 12?
Holiday Pac-12 Big 10
Outback Big 10 SEC
Buffalo Wild Wings Big 12 Pac-12
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12
Potato MWC MAC
Music City Big 10/ ACC SEC
Go Daddy Sun Belt C-USA
New Orleans C-USA MAC
Hunger Pac-12 Big 10
Hawaii MWC C-USA? American?
Belk ACC SEC
Armed Forces Navy 2013/ Army 2014/ At-large 2015/ Navy 2016/ Army 2017 MWC
Poinettia MWC Army 2013/Navy 2014/ BYU 2015
Texas Big 12 SEC
BBVA Compass SEC?/American? C-USA
New Mexico MWC PAC-12
Military ACC/Army? Big 10/American?
Beef 'O' Brady's C-USA American
Pinstripe ACC Big 10
Heart of Dallas Big 10? Big 12?

Here are the Bowls that do not yet have a contract for 2014-2019

Liberty Bowl.  Traditionally, this is where the Conference USA champion has played.  But in 2014, that conference will be a ghost of it's former self.  There are other interested conferences, the ACC, Big 12 and SEC.  But these conference may be to the point where they can't guarantee that they will have enough bowl eligible teams, especially with the movement among the Big 5 to toughen schedules.  The American Conference (Former Big East) likely has the inside track to land here as this is where hometown Memphis has landed.  I don't see the Liberty Bowl seriously seeking the Cougars, but you never know.

Independence Bowl.  Has BYU even been to Shreveport?  This bowl may prefer the Cougars than to be at the bottom of the pecking order for the big conferences.  They may also align with the former Big East.  Right now, however, we may see a Big 12/ACC match-up.

Hawaii Bowl.  This spot, opposite the MWC, has gone to Conference USA.  But again, this conference is not what it used to be and BYU draws well in Hawaii.  Good possibility that the Cougars land here.  But maybe not.

BBVA Compass Bowl.  BYU played in a different bowl in Birmingham back in the late 1980s.  But I suspect that they will align with the American Conference.

Military Bowl.  This bowl will move to Annapolis, MD after this season because of the sparse crowds drawn to FedEx Field near Washington, DC.  The smaller stadium will help this bowl keep it's certification.  It is not clear who they will align with, but it will not likely be the Cougars.

Heart of Dallas Bowl.  This game is played in the old Cotton Bowl stadium.  This game seems to be the most likely spot for the Cougars to land according to twitter rumors I have read over the past couple of months.  But some are saying they prefer a Big 12/Big 10 match-up like they have had before.

Possible New Bowls.

There have been, so far, 10 new bowls proposed for the 2014-15 football season.  Here is the list


Cure Bowl Orlando Florida
Christmas Bowl Los Angeles
Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL
Detroit Bowl Detroit
Dubai Bowl Dubai
Ireland Bowl Dublin, Ireland
Little Rock Little Rock, AR
Miami Marlins Stadium
Nassau Nassau, Bahamas
Toronto Toronto, Canada

The only one of these bowls that seems to have the Cougars in their sights for 2014 is the Los Angeles Christmas Bowl.  The Cure Bowl, which will be played at UCF and not at the Florida Citrus Bowl seems to be a replacement for the Beef 'O' Brady's bowl.  The Detroit Bowl looks to have the Big 10 and the ACC already aligned, shutting out the MAC who was involved in the soon-to-be-gone Little Caesar's Bowl.   The Bowl in Toronto will be where the MAC champion will go that year.  The Little Rock Bowl, The Boca Raton Bowl and the Miami Bowl both seem to be interested in a Sun Belt, C-USA match-up, at least to begin with.  These sites are a long way from Provo and in areas where there are not large Mormon congregation around.  And no one knows about the proposed overseas bowls in Bubai, Ireland and Nassau will do.  They might be gimmicks and BYU would be a gimmick match-up.  But personally, who wouldn't want to go to the Bahamas in December?

So BYU fans, there you have it.  If you are worried about 2014 and the bowl possibilities, you have a good reason to be.  However, there is no way, with 9-game conference schedules, that there will be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all of these slots.  We could barely do that last year when most of the light-weights from the big conferences would play 4 cup-cake teams out of conference, making bowl eligibility a nearly foregone conclusion.  Even if BYU doesn't have a bowl contract, if they become bowl eligible, they will most certainly play somewhere.  And that somewhere really can't be worse than Albuquerque or Boise, unless that is where it is.  The news isn't all bad.  It's only uncomfortable.  It will probably all shake-out in the coming weeks.

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