BYU has what could prove to be their toughest schedule in history...and possibly their most important season. Before I made this prediction, I watched a recording of the Poinsettia Bowl. The offense only performed well against dismal defenses in 2012, except for the Georgia Tech game. The defense performed well in 11 and 1/2 games. The 4th quarter of the Oregon State game and the 1st quarter of the San Jose State game were exceptions. In order to make the BCS, BYU will have to perform as well on defense and the offense will need to make a dramatic improvement. They will also need a good showing to impress, say, people in the Big 12 to be certain that they are in the top division of college football after the dust settles. Here is my prediction.
August 31--@ Virginia
This will be the 4th meeting between the two schools. So far, this series, except for the 1987 All America Bowl, has belonged to the visitors. The Cavaliers have not been a force in the ACC for a few seasons and this probably will not be the year they turn it around. Expect a Cougar win.
September 7--Texas
Texas is the perennial Big 12 favorite and the way the Longhorns have been playing the past few seasons, one has to wonder why they continue to get this honor. Don't mess with Texas is an anti-litter campaign. BYU will have to play their best football to win this game, but the optimist believes that they are capable of that. This is the first of three must-win games for BYU
September 21--Utah
The Utes are a little bit weak this season, that is no secret. But it doesn't matter when these two teams meet on the gridiron. This will be a close game, but the Cougars should pull this one out. This is the 2nd must-win game of the season.
September 27--Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders aren't a power, but this is the classic trap game. They get BYU between their in-state rivalry games. This will be closer than many BYU fans will be comfortable with, but still a cougar win.
October 4--@ Utah State
Very possible that this game will be between two ranked and unbeaten foes. The winner of this game will get a lot of "BCS Buster" love from the national press. A loss for the Aggies will not kill their BCS hopes. Any loss for the Cougars could be fatal to those chances this season. Both teams will leave it all on the field, but I will give this one to the home team. This is the third of three must-win games for the cougars in 2013.
At this point of the season, BYU could be 2-3, which would be a disaster as they would be fighting just for bowl eligibility. But they should be 4-1.
October 12--Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets will give BYU a tougher game this season than last season, but it still won't be all that close.
October 19--@ Houston
The Cougars will win. The Cougars will relish the atmosphere of playing at Reliant Stadium and Elder Gifford Neilsen will carry the alumni flag and it should be BYU all the way.
October 25--Boise State
This is where the season really gets difficult. BSU will really be pushing to keep their win streak against the Cougars. But even with a short week, this game should be a close one. Boise State is still who they are and I don't see a Cougar win in this one.
November 9--@ Wisconsin
The Cougars will have an extra 9 days to get ready for the badgers. When you have a defense like BYU does, you can make any game close and winnable, but I do not see BYU winning in Camp Randall against a good Wisconsin team.
November 16--Idaho State
I don't see the Bengals giving the Cougars much of a game for very long. They lost the best player they've had in years (Roderick Rumble) and are even worse without him. It will be a nice break for the Cougar starters.
November 23--@ Notre Dame
Toward the end of the season, it is a little bit more difficult to predict a game like this. Notre Dame has had some off-season difficulty, but many still predict great things out of the Irish. That is part of the advantage of being Notre Dame. I expect another tight game that the Irish will win.
November 30--@ Nevada
Chris Ault, the pioneer of the Pistol Offense has retired for the third time and Nevada is not as strong this year as usual. The Wolfpack will make a more a good opponent for Kyle Van Noy to finish his collegiate career in his home town. BYU will win and since this is Nevada, the smart bet is that KVN will score a defensive TD for the home-town crowd.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl--BYU will get a crack at a USC team that is in disarray due to the firing of Coach Lane Kiffin and a disappointing season. The scenario is similar to what happened in the Copper Bowl many years ago against Oklahoma, and will produce a similar result in BYU running away with the game in the 2nd half.
Prediction: 9-4
Even thought the record is only slightly improved over 2012, the actual team will be much improved and will give fans a sense of optimism going into 2014 with a more realistic schedule.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Sunday, July 21, 2013
My 2013 Prediction--Utah Utes
The expectations are not high for the 2013 Utah Utes. Utah struggled last year and didn't get a winning season. It may be the reality of playing in a better conference and it may be the reality of Whttingham picking assistant coaches based out of loyalty rather than other qualifications. And it may be that it is just Utah's cycle and in a few years they will be winning again. It may be a combination of all of this. Here is my prediction for 2013.
August 29--Utah State
It is not just me, but many people outside of Logan believe in the Aggies this season. Why not? The Aggies had their best ever season in 2012 and most of their starters return, although head coach Anderson does not. This could be a close game, but should be an Aggie victory.
September 7--Weber State
Fans will begin to grumble when the Wildcats keep the game close into the 2nd half. But Utah should pull away late and get their first win of the season.
September 14--Oregon State
The Beavers will be get some national love this year, but the PAC-12 is tough. Utah played them close in Corvallis last season, and could play them close again this year. The 2013 season could ride on the results of this game, if Utah falls, it will likely not go bowling in 2013. The Beavers should win a close one.
September 21--@ BYU
One of the knocks against Bronco Mendenhall has been his record verses Utah. But this time, BYU will have a week off to prepare. That could be the difference for BYU as they win a close one.
October 3--UCLA
Utah will have more than just a little trouble against the much improved Bruins. UCLA will win by a couple of scores.
October 12--Stanford
The Cardinal come to Salt Lake City for the first time to play a conference game. Stanford is one of the conference favorites and Utah will find out why. This one will not be close.
October 19--@ Arizona
This will be Utah's first trip outside the state of Utah. That will not bode well for the young Utes and playing in unfamiliar turf for the first time will given them a mistake-prone game. Arizona should win a close one.
October 26--@ USC
USC is not what they used to be and Lane Kiffin is on the hot seat. If the Utes are going to win something that they shouldn't, this will be the game. If the Utes are going to salvage something out of the season, this is the time. I expect Utah will be the final straw that will break Lane Kiffin's back.
November 9--Arizona State
Since Utah has joined the PAC-12, they have been owned by the Sun Devils. Just like the last time that these two were in the same conference. No reason to see a change in that this year.
November 16--@ Oregon
The last time the Utah Utes traveled to Eugene, they made a game out of it. Maybe they will again. The Ducks have a lot of weapons and it would be the upset of the year of Utah could pull off an upset. It is not likely to happen.
November 23--@ Washington State
This is a game, even thought it is on the road, that the Utes should win. Mabey not so easily. But if Utah is really 3-7 at this point, it will be time to play for next season. It will be time to audition players for next season. It will help to build confidence with a win.
November 30--Colorado
Perhaps the beginning of Utah's recent troubles was the loss at home to Colorado two seasons ago. The Utes should win this one.
Prediction: 5-7 Chances for a winning season rest upon three potentially winnable games, Oregon State, BYU and Arizona. My predicted upset of USC, should it come to pass will be a nice feather in the cap for the season.
August 29--Utah State
It is not just me, but many people outside of Logan believe in the Aggies this season. Why not? The Aggies had their best ever season in 2012 and most of their starters return, although head coach Anderson does not. This could be a close game, but should be an Aggie victory.
September 7--Weber State
Fans will begin to grumble when the Wildcats keep the game close into the 2nd half. But Utah should pull away late and get their first win of the season.
September 14--Oregon State
The Beavers will be get some national love this year, but the PAC-12 is tough. Utah played them close in Corvallis last season, and could play them close again this year. The 2013 season could ride on the results of this game, if Utah falls, it will likely not go bowling in 2013. The Beavers should win a close one.
September 21--@ BYU
One of the knocks against Bronco Mendenhall has been his record verses Utah. But this time, BYU will have a week off to prepare. That could be the difference for BYU as they win a close one.
October 3--UCLA
Utah will have more than just a little trouble against the much improved Bruins. UCLA will win by a couple of scores.
October 12--Stanford
The Cardinal come to Salt Lake City for the first time to play a conference game. Stanford is one of the conference favorites and Utah will find out why. This one will not be close.
October 19--@ Arizona
This will be Utah's first trip outside the state of Utah. That will not bode well for the young Utes and playing in unfamiliar turf for the first time will given them a mistake-prone game. Arizona should win a close one.
October 26--@ USC
USC is not what they used to be and Lane Kiffin is on the hot seat. If the Utes are going to win something that they shouldn't, this will be the game. If the Utes are going to salvage something out of the season, this is the time. I expect Utah will be the final straw that will break Lane Kiffin's back.
November 9--Arizona State
Since Utah has joined the PAC-12, they have been owned by the Sun Devils. Just like the last time that these two were in the same conference. No reason to see a change in that this year.
November 16--@ Oregon
The last time the Utah Utes traveled to Eugene, they made a game out of it. Maybe they will again. The Ducks have a lot of weapons and it would be the upset of the year of Utah could pull off an upset. It is not likely to happen.
November 23--@ Washington State
This is a game, even thought it is on the road, that the Utes should win. Mabey not so easily. But if Utah is really 3-7 at this point, it will be time to play for next season. It will be time to audition players for next season. It will help to build confidence with a win.
November 30--Colorado
Perhaps the beginning of Utah's recent troubles was the loss at home to Colorado two seasons ago. The Utes should win this one.
Prediction: 5-7 Chances for a winning season rest upon three potentially winnable games, Oregon State, BYU and Arizona. My predicted upset of USC, should it come to pass will be a nice feather in the cap for the season.
2013 Prediction, SUU Thunderbirds
The Thuderbirds were voted by both the press and the coaches to finish near the bottom of the conference standings. Well, that just means that they will be a pleasant surprise for 2013. Brad Sorensen is getting his NFL audition. It seems that over the past two seasons, the T-Birds had a habit of relaxing on defense early in games and then counting on Sorensen to bail them out. It worked a few time, but SUU doesn't have that luxury in 2013. If the defense can play the full 60 minutes, perhaps SUU will do better than surprise a few people in 2013.
August 29--@ South Alabama
FBS teams usually beat FCS teams. But according to Sagarin, if these two had met in 2012, SUU would have won. USA is one of the weakest teams in the FCS. There is no reason why the Thunderbirds can't begin 2013 with a win over Jaguars.
September 7--Fort Lewis
FCS teams usually beat Division II teams at home. That should be the case here. SUU should pull away with an easy victory.
September 14--@Washington State
The Cougars are that bad, but not so bad that SUU can walk out of Martin Stadium with another victory. Although, this should be close. WSU should come away with the win, however.
September 21--@ Sacramento State
This is a winnable game for the Thunderbirds, and if they win this one, there will be talk of a post-season bid for SUU. It will likely be a close, hard fought victory for the Hornets, and it will bring the T-Bird faithful back to earth.
September 28--@ Northern Colorado
The Bears are another team that is better than everyone expects, and the T-Birds will be surprised, but walk away with a narrow victory.
October 5--UC Davis
The Aggies are predicted to be near the bottom of the Big Sky race in 2013. I expect that SUU may go back to their ways of old and allow UCD to get an early lead, but pull of a run-away victory.
October 12--Portland State
The Vikings will come to Cedar City and walk away with a black eye. This should be an easy Thunderbird win.
October 19--@ Eastern Washington
The Eagles will remember last year's upset loss in Cedar City and will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. At 5-2, the T-Birds may even be ranked, but that will make beating up them up all the sweeter for EWU. This one shouldn't be close.
October 26--Idaho State
This game might be close for the first quarter, but should be an easy Thunderbird victory.
November 9--@ Weber State
There has been some real weirdness in this rivalry for the past couple of matches. That will be the case again, but the road team, as has been the case the past few times they have hooked up, will come away with a narrow victory.
November 16--@ Montana State
With 7 wins, there will still be talk of the post-season for SUU. That will end in Bozeman and the Bobcats, who will likely be ranked #1 by now, run away with a blowout victory.
November 23--Northern Arizona
They should give this game a name, like the Grand Canyon Bowl. It should be another close game, but SUU should win as NAU has another late-season fade.
2013 Prediction: 8-4...SUU with a win over an FBS team gets post-season consideration, but since it is South Alabama, it doesn't help much and the T-Birds are passed over.
August 29--@ South Alabama
FBS teams usually beat FCS teams. But according to Sagarin, if these two had met in 2012, SUU would have won. USA is one of the weakest teams in the FCS. There is no reason why the Thunderbirds can't begin 2013 with a win over Jaguars.
September 7--Fort Lewis
FCS teams usually beat Division II teams at home. That should be the case here. SUU should pull away with an easy victory.
September 14--@Washington State
The Cougars are that bad, but not so bad that SUU can walk out of Martin Stadium with another victory. Although, this should be close. WSU should come away with the win, however.
September 21--@ Sacramento State
This is a winnable game for the Thunderbirds, and if they win this one, there will be talk of a post-season bid for SUU. It will likely be a close, hard fought victory for the Hornets, and it will bring the T-Bird faithful back to earth.
September 28--@ Northern Colorado
The Bears are another team that is better than everyone expects, and the T-Birds will be surprised, but walk away with a narrow victory.
October 5--UC Davis
The Aggies are predicted to be near the bottom of the Big Sky race in 2013. I expect that SUU may go back to their ways of old and allow UCD to get an early lead, but pull of a run-away victory.
October 12--Portland State
The Vikings will come to Cedar City and walk away with a black eye. This should be an easy Thunderbird win.
October 19--@ Eastern Washington
The Eagles will remember last year's upset loss in Cedar City and will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. At 5-2, the T-Birds may even be ranked, but that will make beating up them up all the sweeter for EWU. This one shouldn't be close.
October 26--Idaho State
This game might be close for the first quarter, but should be an easy Thunderbird victory.
November 9--@ Weber State
There has been some real weirdness in this rivalry for the past couple of matches. That will be the case again, but the road team, as has been the case the past few times they have hooked up, will come away with a narrow victory.
November 16--@ Montana State
With 7 wins, there will still be talk of the post-season for SUU. That will end in Bozeman and the Bobcats, who will likely be ranked #1 by now, run away with a blowout victory.
November 23--Northern Arizona
They should give this game a name, like the Grand Canyon Bowl. It should be another close game, but SUU should win as NAU has another late-season fade.
2013 Prediction: 8-4...SUU with a win over an FBS team gets post-season consideration, but since it is South Alabama, it doesn't help much and the T-Birds are passed over.
2013 Prediction, Weber State Wildcats
In Jody Sears contract, it is stated that if Weber State does not get 4 wins in 2013, he can be relieved of his duties without a buyout. Perhaps he should have looked at the schedule before he agreed to this. Expectations are low for 2013 in Wildcat country, but the dismal 2012 had a lot of anomalies in the off season. There was the head coach leaving town before coaching in game 1 and the death of the wife of a popular assistant. For 2013, there was stability in the off-season. The team is still has some players that were recruited by successful coach Ron McBride. And one of the most explosive players from 3 seasons ago, running back Bo Bolen, has returned from an LDS mission to the Philippines. The 'Cats could surprise and show that the 2012 season was an abrogation and not the portent of things to come. Here is my prediction.
Schedule
August 31--Stephen F. Austin
Prediction: These Lumberjacks are also another team that has not been their usual self in recent seasons. SFA will probably be favored going into Ogden, and this will be a winnable game for the 'Cats. In fact, it is a must win game. The Wildcats should let it all hang out, leave everything and every cliche on the field and walk away with a narrow, hard-fought victory.
September 7--@ Utah
Prediction: The Utes are not what they used to be either. For much of the first half, WSU will keep the game close. But the Utes will pull away in the end. If will be a moral victory for Weber State if they can force Utah to keep their starters in the game until the 4th quarter.
September 14--@ Utah State
Prediction: Utah State is also not what they used to be, and that is not good news. A few years ago, a trip to Logan was a winnable game for WSU. That is not the case. This one will not even be close. Both teams will clear their benches in what is bound to a be a run away for the Aggies.
September 21--@McNeese State
The Cowboys are gunning for the post-season in 2013. They won easily in Ogden last year and will be surprised by how improved the Wildcats are. But the Cowboys should pull away late.
September 28--Sacramento State (Homecoming)
Even though the Hornets are considered one of the better teams in the Big Sky this season, this is the second winnable game on Weber's schedule. Remember when Tim Toone torched the 'Cats a few years ago? That won't happen, but this one will be close. As consistency was a problem for the Hornets last year, it could be again for Sacramento State in 2013. Weber could pull off a narrow victory here.
October 5--@ Eastern Washington
The Eagles are usually one of the better teams in the FCS and will be contending for the conference title in 2013. Last year, Weber State played them close, and again the year before that. It could be a close game if Weber has found their swagger, but should be an Eagle victory.
October 12--@ Cal Poly
Another road game against another quality opponent. But not another close game. Poly should win easily.
October 19--Montana State
There is always at least one surprise victor in every Big Sky season. If Weber pulls this one off, it will be a surprise that will measure on the Richter Scale. But the 'Cats from up north usually win in Ogden, for some reason. It will happen again.
November 2--@ Portland State
This will be the third winnable game on the 'Cats schedule. It could be high scoring and close as is normally the case when these two teams hook up. WSU won in Portland in Ron McBride's last game and spoiled PSU's chances at a post-season birth. Neither will contend for the post-season in 2013, but WSU could still pull out a narrow victory.
November 9--Southern Utah
The Thunderbirds will also be better than everyone believes they will in 2013. It will turn out to be a close, and bitter game and Utah's newest rivalry should take another turn for the weird and unusual. Because the road team in this series has won the last two games in close fashion, I will pick the Thunderbirds in this one.
November 16--@ Montana
Former Grizzly head coach Robin Pflugrad is now WSU's offensive coordinator. Both sides are well aware of that. Familiarity breeds contention. This one will be close and ugly and Montana will be unprepared for how well Weber is prepared. I expect a high-scoring Weber State upset.
November 23--Idaho State
Don't expect the Bengals to play like a doormat in the season finale. It may be close for the first half of the game. ISU will be beat up and demoralized after another long season and WSU will be flying high at a better-than-expected season. I expect WSU will win easily.
Final prediction: 5-7 No post-season and no contention for the conference title. Just proof that 2012 was the exception, not the rule.
Schedule
August 31--Stephen F. Austin
Prediction: These Lumberjacks are also another team that has not been their usual self in recent seasons. SFA will probably be favored going into Ogden, and this will be a winnable game for the 'Cats. In fact, it is a must win game. The Wildcats should let it all hang out, leave everything and every cliche on the field and walk away with a narrow, hard-fought victory.
September 7--@ Utah
Prediction: The Utes are not what they used to be either. For much of the first half, WSU will keep the game close. But the Utes will pull away in the end. If will be a moral victory for Weber State if they can force Utah to keep their starters in the game until the 4th quarter.
September 14--@ Utah State
Prediction: Utah State is also not what they used to be, and that is not good news. A few years ago, a trip to Logan was a winnable game for WSU. That is not the case. This one will not even be close. Both teams will clear their benches in what is bound to a be a run away for the Aggies.
September 21--@McNeese State
The Cowboys are gunning for the post-season in 2013. They won easily in Ogden last year and will be surprised by how improved the Wildcats are. But the Cowboys should pull away late.
September 28--Sacramento State (Homecoming)
Even though the Hornets are considered one of the better teams in the Big Sky this season, this is the second winnable game on Weber's schedule. Remember when Tim Toone torched the 'Cats a few years ago? That won't happen, but this one will be close. As consistency was a problem for the Hornets last year, it could be again for Sacramento State in 2013. Weber could pull off a narrow victory here.
October 5--@ Eastern Washington
The Eagles are usually one of the better teams in the FCS and will be contending for the conference title in 2013. Last year, Weber State played them close, and again the year before that. It could be a close game if Weber has found their swagger, but should be an Eagle victory.
October 12--@ Cal Poly
Another road game against another quality opponent. But not another close game. Poly should win easily.
October 19--Montana State
There is always at least one surprise victor in every Big Sky season. If Weber pulls this one off, it will be a surprise that will measure on the Richter Scale. But the 'Cats from up north usually win in Ogden, for some reason. It will happen again.
November 2--@ Portland State
This will be the third winnable game on the 'Cats schedule. It could be high scoring and close as is normally the case when these two teams hook up. WSU won in Portland in Ron McBride's last game and spoiled PSU's chances at a post-season birth. Neither will contend for the post-season in 2013, but WSU could still pull out a narrow victory.
November 9--Southern Utah
The Thunderbirds will also be better than everyone believes they will in 2013. It will turn out to be a close, and bitter game and Utah's newest rivalry should take another turn for the weird and unusual. Because the road team in this series has won the last two games in close fashion, I will pick the Thunderbirds in this one.
November 16--@ Montana
Former Grizzly head coach Robin Pflugrad is now WSU's offensive coordinator. Both sides are well aware of that. Familiarity breeds contention. This one will be close and ugly and Montana will be unprepared for how well Weber is prepared. I expect a high-scoring Weber State upset.
November 23--Idaho State
Don't expect the Bengals to play like a doormat in the season finale. It may be close for the first half of the game. ISU will be beat up and demoralized after another long season and WSU will be flying high at a better-than-expected season. I expect WSU will win easily.
Final prediction: 5-7 No post-season and no contention for the conference title. Just proof that 2012 was the exception, not the rule.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
My Big Sky Conference Pick for 2013
The Press and the coaches had their say about how the conference members will finish in 2013. Here is my prediction.
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Sacramento State
6. Northern Arizona
7. Southern Utah
8. North Dakota
9. Northern Colorado
10. Weber State
11. Portland State
12. UC Davis
13. Idaho State
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Sacramento State
6. Northern Arizona
7. Southern Utah
8. North Dakota
9. Northern Colorado
10. Weber State
11. Portland State
12. UC Davis
13. Idaho State
Sunday, July 14, 2013
BYU's 2014 Schedule Almost Complete
There was a tweet from Greg Wrubbel, the radio voice of BYU, stating that BYU and Central Florida have set their 2014 meeting in Orlando for October 11.
This is what BYU's schedule for 2014 currently looks like.
August 28 (Thursday) @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 open
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 (Friday) Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Southern Mississippi
November 15 UNLV
November 22 Open
November 29 Open
December 6 Open
There are some scenarios as to how this will finish out. First, Southern Mississippi want out of the series, and Tom Holmoe indicated on Media Day that BYU would likely lose one of their scheduled 2014 games.
Second, Notre Dame canceled their series with Purdue for 2014 to 2018 and has suggested that BYU would be a good replacement. However, from a Purdue fan's point of view, this would be like asking Utah State to replace BYU with Bethune-Cookman. The other problem with this is that Purdue@Notre Dame was supposed to take place on November 15, the same day that BYU has UNLV scheduled. However, the MWC may accommodate a move of UNLV@BYU to November 8 or November 22 of may provide a replacement such as New Mexico or Wyoming instead. It is possible that because BYU already has 3 other MWC teams scheduled for 2014, that UNLV will not happen in 2014. Purdue may also insist on playing BYU in Indiana first and may want a 2 for 1 deal with the Cougars.
Finally, BYU's final opponent may be from a conference witch does not have a conference championship, like the Sun Belt or maybe against, again, a Big Sky Conference team, or both if experience is any indicator.
Here is how I think it will turn out, based upon past experience. In other words, pretty good schedule, but November will be anti-climactic, just as Cougar Fans have come to expect for November as an independent. But 2013 is better and 2015 will be better.
August 28 (Thursday) @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 Open
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 (Friday) Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Northern Colorado*
November 15 @ Purdue*
November 22 Open
November 29 Texas State*
December 23 LA Christmas Bowl*
*Games not yet set
In a nutshell, BYU reschedules UNLV to play Purdue. Southern Mississippi is dropped and replaced by Texas State. Northern Colorado rounds out the schedule.
This is what BYU's schedule for 2014 currently looks like.
August 28 (Thursday) @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 open
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 (Friday) Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Southern Mississippi
November 15 UNLV
November 22 Open
November 29 Open
December 6 Open
There are some scenarios as to how this will finish out. First, Southern Mississippi want out of the series, and Tom Holmoe indicated on Media Day that BYU would likely lose one of their scheduled 2014 games.
Second, Notre Dame canceled their series with Purdue for 2014 to 2018 and has suggested that BYU would be a good replacement. However, from a Purdue fan's point of view, this would be like asking Utah State to replace BYU with Bethune-Cookman. The other problem with this is that Purdue@Notre Dame was supposed to take place on November 15, the same day that BYU has UNLV scheduled. However, the MWC may accommodate a move of UNLV@BYU to November 8 or November 22 of may provide a replacement such as New Mexico or Wyoming instead. It is possible that because BYU already has 3 other MWC teams scheduled for 2014, that UNLV will not happen in 2014. Purdue may also insist on playing BYU in Indiana first and may want a 2 for 1 deal with the Cougars.
Finally, BYU's final opponent may be from a conference witch does not have a conference championship, like the Sun Belt or maybe against, again, a Big Sky Conference team, or both if experience is any indicator.
Here is how I think it will turn out, based upon past experience. In other words, pretty good schedule, but November will be anti-climactic, just as Cougar Fans have come to expect for November as an independent. But 2013 is better and 2015 will be better.
August 28 (Thursday) @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 Open
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 (Friday) Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Northern Colorado*
November 15 @ Purdue*
November 22 Open
November 29 Texas State*
December 23 LA Christmas Bowl*
*Games not yet set
In a nutshell, BYU reschedules UNLV to play Purdue. Southern Mississippi is dropped and replaced by Texas State. Northern Colorado rounds out the schedule.
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
BYU/Utah series back in November?
As many people know, the BYU/Utah series has been played in September in the 3 years since the two schools are no longer in the same conference. However, Chris Hill today announced that he is working with the PAC-12 to move the series back to November with the approval of the PAC-12. This represents a couple of things. First, the PAC-12 is considering BYU as the travel partner for Notre Dame, who plays at Stanford/USC regularly. This also means that the relationship between the BYU and the PAC-12 could be on the thaw. It also is important to note that the PAC-12 is beginning to recognize the importance of BYU/Utah to the culture of the Wasatch Front. And finally, the importance of BYU/Utah as one of college football's most intense rivalries.
And just so you know this isn't just my speculation.
Here is the proposed future of the BYU/Utah rivalry according to Hill. This is not yet official from 2017 and beyond.
2013--Provo--September
2014-2015--Hiatus
2016--Salt Lake City--September
2017--Provo--November or September. (KSL.com says September...FBSchedules.com says November).
2018--Salt Lake City--November
2019--Provo--November???
2020--Salt Lake City--September/October due to an unannounced BYU/Stanford game according to Hill
2021--Provo--September/October due to BYU/USC November game
2022--Salt Lake City--November
2023--Provo--Earlier in season due to BYU/USC November game
2024 and beyond--In November, even years in SLC and odd years in Provo the same week that Notre Dame travels to either USC or Sanford????????
And just so you know this isn't just my speculation.
Here is the proposed future of the BYU/Utah rivalry according to Hill. This is not yet official from 2017 and beyond.
2013--Provo--September
2014-2015--Hiatus
2016--Salt Lake City--September
2017--Provo--November or September. (KSL.com says September...FBSchedules.com says November).
2018--Salt Lake City--November
2019--Provo--November???
2020--Salt Lake City--September/October due to an unannounced BYU/Stanford game according to Hill
2021--Provo--September/October due to BYU/USC November game
2022--Salt Lake City--November
2023--Provo--Earlier in season due to BYU/USC November game
2024 and beyond--In November, even years in SLC and odd years in Provo the same week that Notre Dame travels to either USC or Sanford????????
Monday, July 8, 2013
More BYU Alumi coaching in the PAC-12 than PAC-12 alumni
This is true. There are three BYU alumni coaching in the PAC-12 than there are PAC-12 alumni. But there are not many BYU alumni coaching elsewhere, and you can find PAC-12 alumni coaching all over the place. The list of PAC-12 alumni elsewhere includes BYU's Bronco Mendenhall who played college ball at Oregon State. Here is the list.
In the PAC-12
BYU Alumni coaching
Kyle Whittingham--Utah--Alma Mater--BYU
Mike Leach--Washington State--Alma Mater--BYU
Steve Sarkisian--Washington--Alma Mater--BYU
PAC-12 Alumni
David Shaw--Stanford--Alma Mater--Stanford
Jim Mora, Jr--UCLA--Alma Mater--Washington
Other schools
Rich Rodriguez--Arizona--Alma Mater--West Virginia
Todd Graham--Arizona State--Alma Mater--East Central (Oklahoma)
Mark Helfrich--Oregon--Alma Mater--Southern Oregon
Mike Riley--Oregon State--Alma Mater--Alabama
Sonny Dykes--California--Alma Mater--Texas Tech
Lane Kiffin--USC--Alma Mater--Fresno State
Mike MacIntyre--Colorado--Alma Mater--Georgia Tech
PAC-12 Coaches Elsewhere in College Football
Bronco Mendenhall--BYU--Alma Mater--Oregon State
Norm Chow--Hawaii--Alma Mater--Utah
Ron Caragher--San Jose State--Alma Mater--UCLA
Dave Christensen--Wyoming--Alma Mater--UCLA
Gary Anderson--Wisconsin--Alma Mater--Utah
In the PAC-12
BYU Alumni coaching
Kyle Whittingham--Utah--Alma Mater--BYU
Mike Leach--Washington State--Alma Mater--BYU
Steve Sarkisian--Washington--Alma Mater--BYU
PAC-12 Alumni
David Shaw--Stanford--Alma Mater--Stanford
Jim Mora, Jr--UCLA--Alma Mater--Washington
Other schools
Rich Rodriguez--Arizona--Alma Mater--West Virginia
Todd Graham--Arizona State--Alma Mater--East Central (Oklahoma)
Mark Helfrich--Oregon--Alma Mater--Southern Oregon
Mike Riley--Oregon State--Alma Mater--Alabama
Sonny Dykes--California--Alma Mater--Texas Tech
Lane Kiffin--USC--Alma Mater--Fresno State
Mike MacIntyre--Colorado--Alma Mater--Georgia Tech
PAC-12 Coaches Elsewhere in College Football
Bronco Mendenhall--BYU--Alma Mater--Oregon State
Norm Chow--Hawaii--Alma Mater--Utah
Ron Caragher--San Jose State--Alma Mater--UCLA
Dave Christensen--Wyoming--Alma Mater--UCLA
Gary Anderson--Wisconsin--Alma Mater--Utah
Saturday, July 6, 2013
Hope for the 2013-14 Jazz is lost.
So, the Jazz have nearly 30+ million dollars to spend in the free agent market in the off season. How do they spend it? Here is what Dennis Lindsay just did. He took on the salaries of Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins and Brandon Rush.
Rush tore his ACL in game 2 of the 2012-13 season. But was good the season before where he had good numbers, mostly coming off the bench. He shoots over .400 from 3-point range. If the Jazz get those kind of numbers, this trade wasn't all bad.
The other two players are at the end of their NBA careers. Richard Jefferson is far removed from his best days where he was putting in 22 points per game for the Nets. It is obvious that his career is in decline and it is possible that if he actually plays in 2013-14, it will be his last season. Last season he averaged 10.1 minutes and 3.1 points per game. He is owed 11 million for the coming season, guaranteed.
Andris Biedrins is even less productive. He is a 7-foot power forward that clocked 9.0 minutes per game and scored 0.5 points per game. He is owed 9 million for 2013-14.
For 20 million, the Jazz get 19.1 minutes and 3.6 ppg.
It is quite possible that neither Jefferson nor Biedrins will play a single minute in a Jazz uniform in 2013-14. But their contracts are guaranteed.
Is this what winning teams do?
Well, this is not everything that Utah gets from the deal. They get 4 draft picks. Two first round draft picks. One for 2014 and the other in 2017. They are unprotected. So if the Warriors have a bad season and end up in the lottery, the Jazz get the pick. The Jazz get 2nd round picks in 2015 and 2016. The Jazz also sent away Kevin Murphy who spent most of 2012-13 in the D-League.
It was really a bad trade for both teams. The Warriors traded away their future so that they would have the cap room to sign Andre Igudola. If this does not work, the Warriors will have to rely on free agency to build their team.
But it basically ends any hope that Jazz fans had of playoff contention in the coming season. It means that they have to rely on young and essentially unproven talent. It will be a lot of pressure to put on young kids playing for a franchise that has only missed the playoffs 4 times in the last 35 seasons. Fans like the young guns now, but could turn on the team when the team struggles to win 35 games.
Now to be fair, this is the way that the NBA works. Salary caps are designed to ensure that the Lakers and Nicks don't buy up all of the talent. But salary caps hurt the small market teams as well. There doesn't really seem to be enough superstar talent to go around, and it seems that small market fans still suffer.
The so-called experts tell us...next year we will have some money to spend for a quality free agent. Next year, we will get that lottery pick that will help us turn the corner. They have been saying these things for a long time in Sacramento, in Milwaukee, in Minneapolis and in Portland. Every year it's the same thing. Sure, Damien Lillard wins Rookie of the year, but how long does the Oakland native stay with the Blazers? Will he really stay with Portland as long as Chris Paul stayed in New Orleans? Perhaps longer? How many times does that lottery pick pan out? How many championships the Andrew Bogut win for the Bucks? How many of those lottery picks turn out to be just good instead of great?
The Jazz didn't become a premier small market team by making trades like they did today. If another team wants to spend 20 million on a player in the declining years of his career, let them do it. Let's not take on their problems and bail them out so that a big market team can better afford a big player. Let's not turn the Utah Jazz into the NBA dumping grounds. That is not the way it was done when Larry Miller was alive. Let's not do this now that he is gone.
Projected Jazz depth chart now.
PG--Trey Burke--Rual Neto
SG--Alec Burks--Brandon Rush
SF--Gordon Hayward--Marvin Williams--Richard Jefferson
PF--Derrick Favors--Jeremy Evans
C--Enis Kanter--Rudy Gobert--Andris Biedrins
The Jazz have about 4 million left to spend. Hopefully on a point guard who can mentor Burke. It will truly be a long season if one rookie point guard is baking up another.
Rush tore his ACL in game 2 of the 2012-13 season. But was good the season before where he had good numbers, mostly coming off the bench. He shoots over .400 from 3-point range. If the Jazz get those kind of numbers, this trade wasn't all bad.
The other two players are at the end of their NBA careers. Richard Jefferson is far removed from his best days where he was putting in 22 points per game for the Nets. It is obvious that his career is in decline and it is possible that if he actually plays in 2013-14, it will be his last season. Last season he averaged 10.1 minutes and 3.1 points per game. He is owed 11 million for the coming season, guaranteed.
Andris Biedrins is even less productive. He is a 7-foot power forward that clocked 9.0 minutes per game and scored 0.5 points per game. He is owed 9 million for 2013-14.
For 20 million, the Jazz get 19.1 minutes and 3.6 ppg.
It is quite possible that neither Jefferson nor Biedrins will play a single minute in a Jazz uniform in 2013-14. But their contracts are guaranteed.
Is this what winning teams do?
Well, this is not everything that Utah gets from the deal. They get 4 draft picks. Two first round draft picks. One for 2014 and the other in 2017. They are unprotected. So if the Warriors have a bad season and end up in the lottery, the Jazz get the pick. The Jazz get 2nd round picks in 2015 and 2016. The Jazz also sent away Kevin Murphy who spent most of 2012-13 in the D-League.
It was really a bad trade for both teams. The Warriors traded away their future so that they would have the cap room to sign Andre Igudola. If this does not work, the Warriors will have to rely on free agency to build their team.
But it basically ends any hope that Jazz fans had of playoff contention in the coming season. It means that they have to rely on young and essentially unproven talent. It will be a lot of pressure to put on young kids playing for a franchise that has only missed the playoffs 4 times in the last 35 seasons. Fans like the young guns now, but could turn on the team when the team struggles to win 35 games.
Now to be fair, this is the way that the NBA works. Salary caps are designed to ensure that the Lakers and Nicks don't buy up all of the talent. But salary caps hurt the small market teams as well. There doesn't really seem to be enough superstar talent to go around, and it seems that small market fans still suffer.
The so-called experts tell us...next year we will have some money to spend for a quality free agent. Next year, we will get that lottery pick that will help us turn the corner. They have been saying these things for a long time in Sacramento, in Milwaukee, in Minneapolis and in Portland. Every year it's the same thing. Sure, Damien Lillard wins Rookie of the year, but how long does the Oakland native stay with the Blazers? Will he really stay with Portland as long as Chris Paul stayed in New Orleans? Perhaps longer? How many times does that lottery pick pan out? How many championships the Andrew Bogut win for the Bucks? How many of those lottery picks turn out to be just good instead of great?
The Jazz didn't become a premier small market team by making trades like they did today. If another team wants to spend 20 million on a player in the declining years of his career, let them do it. Let's not take on their problems and bail them out so that a big market team can better afford a big player. Let's not turn the Utah Jazz into the NBA dumping grounds. That is not the way it was done when Larry Miller was alive. Let's not do this now that he is gone.
Projected Jazz depth chart now.
PG--Trey Burke--Rual Neto
SG--Alec Burks--Brandon Rush
SF--Gordon Hayward--Marvin Williams--Richard Jefferson
PF--Derrick Favors--Jeremy Evans
C--Enis Kanter--Rudy Gobert--Andris Biedrins
The Jazz have about 4 million left to spend. Hopefully on a point guard who can mentor Burke. It will truly be a long season if one rookie point guard is baking up another.
Thursday, July 4, 2013
BYU's 2014 Bowl Possibilities in 2014...Not Looking good.
I am not really an expert at reading the college football tea leaves, it is just my hobby. However, BYU fans should be concerned about the real possibility that the Cougars will enter the 2014 season without a guaranteed slot for a bowl eligible effort. It is very possible that the Cougars, even with a 10 or 11 win season, would end up spending the holidays at home.
College football gets a little simpler in 2014. The BCS is gone, replaced by a 4-team playoff. There are 6 bowls that participate in the semi-finals. After the 2014 season, the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl are the semi-final bowls. After the 2015 season, it's the Fiesta Bowl and the Orange Bowl. After the 2016 season it's the Cotton Bowl and the Peach Bowl. What you have is you will have 3 bowls in the semi-final rotation that have conference tie-in, and 3 bowls that do not. It was planned that way. When the Rose Bowl has the Semi-finals, the Pac-12/Big Ten tie-in goes to the Fiesta Bowl. After the 2014 Season, the PAC-12 and Big 10 will play in the Fiesta Bowl. There will be no at-large fill ins as there was with the BCS except in years when neither the Rose Bowl nor the Fiesta Bowl will have the semi final. Therefore, there will be one of the 6 semi-final bowls that will have the liberty to select whom they will. In the 2014-15 season, that will be the Peach Bowl. But do not count on them picking the Cougars unless they finish in the top-6.
Here is how the rotation works.
Here is how the rest of the bowls will shake out:
Here are the Bowls that do not yet have a contract for 2014-2019
Liberty Bowl. Traditionally, this is where the Conference USA champion has played. But in 2014, that conference will be a ghost of it's former self. There are other interested conferences, the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. But these conference may be to the point where they can't guarantee that they will have enough bowl eligible teams, especially with the movement among the Big 5 to toughen schedules. The American Conference (Former Big East) likely has the inside track to land here as this is where hometown Memphis has landed. I don't see the Liberty Bowl seriously seeking the Cougars, but you never know.
Independence Bowl. Has BYU even been to Shreveport? This bowl may prefer the Cougars than to be at the bottom of the pecking order for the big conferences. They may also align with the former Big East. Right now, however, we may see a Big 12/ACC match-up.
Hawaii Bowl. This spot, opposite the MWC, has gone to Conference USA. But again, this conference is not what it used to be and BYU draws well in Hawaii. Good possibility that the Cougars land here. But maybe not.
BBVA Compass Bowl. BYU played in a different bowl in Birmingham back in the late 1980s. But I suspect that they will align with the American Conference.
Military Bowl. This bowl will move to Annapolis, MD after this season because of the sparse crowds drawn to FedEx Field near Washington, DC. The smaller stadium will help this bowl keep it's certification. It is not clear who they will align with, but it will not likely be the Cougars.
Heart of Dallas Bowl. This game is played in the old Cotton Bowl stadium. This game seems to be the most likely spot for the Cougars to land according to twitter rumors I have read over the past couple of months. But some are saying they prefer a Big 12/Big 10 match-up like they have had before.
Possible New Bowls.
There have been, so far, 10 new bowls proposed for the 2014-15 football season. Here is the list
The only one of these bowls that seems to have the Cougars in their sights for 2014 is the Los Angeles Christmas Bowl. The Cure Bowl, which will be played at UCF and not at the Florida Citrus Bowl seems to be a replacement for the Beef 'O' Brady's bowl. The Detroit Bowl looks to have the Big 10 and the ACC already aligned, shutting out the MAC who was involved in the soon-to-be-gone Little Caesar's Bowl. The Bowl in Toronto will be where the MAC champion will go that year. The Little Rock Bowl, The Boca Raton Bowl and the Miami Bowl both seem to be interested in a Sun Belt, C-USA match-up, at least to begin with. These sites are a long way from Provo and in areas where there are not large Mormon congregation around. And no one knows about the proposed overseas bowls in Bubai, Ireland and Nassau will do. They might be gimmicks and BYU would be a gimmick match-up. But personally, who wouldn't want to go to the Bahamas in December?
So BYU fans, there you have it. If you are worried about 2014 and the bowl possibilities, you have a good reason to be. However, there is no way, with 9-game conference schedules, that there will be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all of these slots. We could barely do that last year when most of the light-weights from the big conferences would play 4 cup-cake teams out of conference, making bowl eligibility a nearly foregone conclusion. Even if BYU doesn't have a bowl contract, if they become bowl eligible, they will most certainly play somewhere. And that somewhere really can't be worse than Albuquerque or Boise, unless that is where it is. The news isn't all bad. It's only uncomfortable. It will probably all shake-out in the coming weeks.
College football gets a little simpler in 2014. The BCS is gone, replaced by a 4-team playoff. There are 6 bowls that participate in the semi-finals. After the 2014 season, the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl are the semi-final bowls. After the 2015 season, it's the Fiesta Bowl and the Orange Bowl. After the 2016 season it's the Cotton Bowl and the Peach Bowl. What you have is you will have 3 bowls in the semi-final rotation that have conference tie-in, and 3 bowls that do not. It was planned that way. When the Rose Bowl has the Semi-finals, the Pac-12/Big Ten tie-in goes to the Fiesta Bowl. After the 2014 Season, the PAC-12 and Big 10 will play in the Fiesta Bowl. There will be no at-large fill ins as there was with the BCS except in years when neither the Rose Bowl nor the Fiesta Bowl will have the semi final. Therefore, there will be one of the 6 semi-final bowls that will have the liberty to select whom they will. In the 2014-15 season, that will be the Peach Bowl. But do not count on them picking the Cougars unless they finish in the top-6.
Here is how the rotation works.
| Bowl | Conference #1 | Conference #2 | Playoff Rotation | At-large rotation |
| Rose | Big 10 | Pac-12 | 2014-15 | None |
| Orange | ACC/Notre Dame | Big 10/SEC | 2015-16 | None |
| Cotton | Big 12 | SEC | 2015-16 | 2016-17, Alternate for Sugar Bowl in 2014-15 |
| Fiesta | Big 10 | PAC-12 | 2016-17 | 2015-16, Alternate to Rose Bowl in 2014-15 |
| Sugar | Big 12 | SEC | 2014-15 | None |
| Peach | ACC/Notre Dame | Big 10/SEC | 2016-17 | 2014-15, Alternate to Orange Bowl in 2015-16 |
Here is how the rest of the bowls will shake out:
| Sun | PAC-12 | ACC |
| Russell Athletic | ACC | Big 10 |
| Gator | ACC/Big 10 | SEC |
| Capital One | Big 10 | SEC |
| Liberty | ACC?/American? | Big 12? SEC? C-USA? |
| Independence | ACC? | Big 12? |
| Holiday | Pac-12 | Big 10 |
| Outback | Big 10 | SEC |
| Buffalo Wild Wings | Big 12 | Pac-12 |
| Las Vegas | MWC | Pac-12 |
| Alamo | Big 12 | Pac-12 |
| Potato | MWC | MAC |
| Music City | Big 10/ ACC | SEC |
| Go Daddy | Sun Belt | C-USA |
| New Orleans | C-USA | MAC |
| Hunger | Pac-12 | Big 10 |
| Hawaii | MWC | C-USA? American? |
| Belk | ACC | SEC |
| Armed Forces | Navy 2013/ Army 2014/ At-large 2015/ Navy 2016/ Army 2017 | MWC |
| Poinettia | MWC | Army 2013/Navy 2014/ BYU 2015 |
| Texas | Big 12 | SEC |
| BBVA Compass | SEC?/American? | C-USA |
| New Mexico | MWC | PAC-12 |
| Military | ACC/Army? | Big 10/American? |
| Beef 'O' Brady's | C-USA | American |
| Pinstripe | ACC | Big 10 |
| Heart of Dallas | Big 10? | Big 12? |
Here are the Bowls that do not yet have a contract for 2014-2019
Liberty Bowl. Traditionally, this is where the Conference USA champion has played. But in 2014, that conference will be a ghost of it's former self. There are other interested conferences, the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. But these conference may be to the point where they can't guarantee that they will have enough bowl eligible teams, especially with the movement among the Big 5 to toughen schedules. The American Conference (Former Big East) likely has the inside track to land here as this is where hometown Memphis has landed. I don't see the Liberty Bowl seriously seeking the Cougars, but you never know.
Independence Bowl. Has BYU even been to Shreveport? This bowl may prefer the Cougars than to be at the bottom of the pecking order for the big conferences. They may also align with the former Big East. Right now, however, we may see a Big 12/ACC match-up.
Hawaii Bowl. This spot, opposite the MWC, has gone to Conference USA. But again, this conference is not what it used to be and BYU draws well in Hawaii. Good possibility that the Cougars land here. But maybe not.
BBVA Compass Bowl. BYU played in a different bowl in Birmingham back in the late 1980s. But I suspect that they will align with the American Conference.
Military Bowl. This bowl will move to Annapolis, MD after this season because of the sparse crowds drawn to FedEx Field near Washington, DC. The smaller stadium will help this bowl keep it's certification. It is not clear who they will align with, but it will not likely be the Cougars.
Heart of Dallas Bowl. This game is played in the old Cotton Bowl stadium. This game seems to be the most likely spot for the Cougars to land according to twitter rumors I have read over the past couple of months. But some are saying they prefer a Big 12/Big 10 match-up like they have had before.
Possible New Bowls.
There have been, so far, 10 new bowls proposed for the 2014-15 football season. Here is the list
| Cure Bowl | Orlando Florida |
| Christmas Bowl | Los Angeles |
| Boca Raton | Boca Raton, FL |
| Detroit Bowl | Detroit |
| Dubai Bowl | Dubai |
| Ireland Bowl | Dublin, Ireland |
| Little Rock | Little Rock, AR |
| Miami | Marlins Stadium |
| Nassau | Nassau, Bahamas |
| Toronto | Toronto, Canada |
The only one of these bowls that seems to have the Cougars in their sights for 2014 is the Los Angeles Christmas Bowl. The Cure Bowl, which will be played at UCF and not at the Florida Citrus Bowl seems to be a replacement for the Beef 'O' Brady's bowl. The Detroit Bowl looks to have the Big 10 and the ACC already aligned, shutting out the MAC who was involved in the soon-to-be-gone Little Caesar's Bowl. The Bowl in Toronto will be where the MAC champion will go that year. The Little Rock Bowl, The Boca Raton Bowl and the Miami Bowl both seem to be interested in a Sun Belt, C-USA match-up, at least to begin with. These sites are a long way from Provo and in areas where there are not large Mormon congregation around. And no one knows about the proposed overseas bowls in Bubai, Ireland and Nassau will do. They might be gimmicks and BYU would be a gimmick match-up. But personally, who wouldn't want to go to the Bahamas in December?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)