There are concerns about Idaho's tenure in the Sun Belt Conference.
Perhaps the biggest concern for Idaho in the Sun Belt is travel costs. I once compared Idaho in the Sun Belt to Hawaii in the MWC. That is not a fair comparison. It is still nearly twice as expensive to travel from Fresno to Honolulu as it is to travel from New Orleans to Spokane, WA. It is also not a fair comparison because Aloha Stadium seats about 3 times as many people as the Kibbie Dome. At best, travel to Hawaii is a break-even proposition. For Hawaii's MWC foes, you hope that the rivalry with Hawaii is enough to bring enough fans to the gate to break even on travel costs. This could probably happen with a half-full Aloha Stadium. I do not know what arrangements Idaho has with the Sun Belt, but a half-full Kibbie Dome will not cover those costs.
Lack of Rivalry should be another concern. Idaho's biggest rivals are Washington State, Boise State and Montana. But the Vandals do not play these schools every season any longer. The Biggest rival Idaho has left is that they will see every season is New Mexico State. There is not enough proximity between Idaho and anyone else in the Sun Belt to really make an effective rivalry.
Truth is, Idaho is not really a good fit for the Sun Belt. That should be no secret. You do not think of November games in snow when you think of the Sun Belt Conference, the deep south. An entire continent separates the University of Idaho from many of their new conference rivals. Idaho was in the Sun Belt Conference as a football-only member once before. But at that time, the farthest eastern reach of the conference was Western Kentucky, and the conference then also had North Texas and Utah State. Travel to Idaho wasn't as big as an issue 10 years ago as it is today with Appalachian State, Georgia State and Georgia Southern in the fold.
The Sun Belt might be a bridge for Idaho until they can get into the Mountain West Conference. But is Idaho to the MWC a reality? It is a hope, but it is not really a reality. If the MWC were to loose Boise State and other schools, would they really invite Idaho? Who does the MWC want? BYU, SMU, Tulsa, and Houston. Who would they have to settle for? UTEP, and after UTEP, who? Montana, because of their winning tradition is probably a better choice than Idaho, if they decide to move to the FBS. But in reality, Montana does not bring a large TV market to the table. There are more people in Western Montana than there are in the Palouse Valley, and you do not have another FBS university 15 miles to the west, like you have with Idaho and Washington State.
I've said it before, and I will say it again. Idaho is less attractive to the MWC than Portland State, Cal Poly, UC Davis and Sacramento State if any of these schools desire to move up to the FBS. Even though the MWC already has Fresno State, these are still more attractive markets and offer another road to California recruits for the MWC. And if the MWC does lose Fresno State and San Diego State, these 4 schools are even more valuable to the MWC, because it keeps them on the map in the Golden State.
Sure, Idaho is an option. But who is going to lobby for the Vandals? Would Boise State really want Idaho in the MWC? What if Boise State goes into the PAC-12 or Big 12? Who would really be there to push for Idaho? Does Nevada or Fresno State really care?
Idaho fans should be very thankful that the Sun Belt has given the Vandals an FBS life boat. However, the fans at many Sun Belt conference chat boards are not happy about the inclusion of Idaho. It will be a tenacious relationship at best. Hopefully, after a year or two, it will smooth out.
Idaho needs to make steps to ensure that that Sun Belt fans who travel to Moscow have a nice experience. Moscow may not be the best place for people from the deep south to visit, especially in November. Improvement of the Kibbie Dome is a must. The weather may be of a shock to Georgia Southern fans who drive their RVs all the way to Moscow, many think that 40 degrees is cold. Where in Northern Idaho, 40 degrees in November is proof of global warming.
Idaho must figure out how to make the Kibbie Dome and it's environs more hospitable. If this does not happen, Idaho has not choice but to move football to the Big Sky Conference. This can work if Idaho can make the commitment to improve their facilities and to make the environment as hospitable as possible. Fans who make the trip will have traveled all the way across America. The trip must be worth the drive.
One more concern to mention. Attendance. Idaho has not met the 15,000 fans per game for several seasons. The NCAA has never forced a school not meeting this threshold down to the FCS, but Idaho is a good candidate to be the first. Their conference affiliation issue doesn't really help their cause.
How long will Idaho stay in the Sun Belt Conference remains to be seen. It could be, due to the ever changing landscape of college athletics, that Idaho's stay is for a long time. Some of those schools who will be in the Sun Belt Conference in 2014 will be in Conference-USA or somewhere else by the end of the decade. Don't know who, but it's probably a given. If Idaho is successful on the field of play and profitable for the the conference, and can put people in the seats they will certainly be there in 2020 and beyond. Otherwise, they will not be around for very long.
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An update to my Sun Belt expansion blog a couple of days ago. Current rumor is that James Madison, Liberty and Lamar are among those being considered for Sun Belt expansion. I am pleased to hear that Montana and Eastern Washington are not. Again, it would make the travel problem worse to consider schools close to Idaho, unless you can form a Pacific Northwest division of the conference. There are probably not enough colleges in Idaho's neighborhood for that, unless you take all of them, and that certainly can't be done. No current Sun Belt fans are really warm on the idea of people near Idaho joining the party. And if the Kibbie Dome is a problem, then Holt Arena (Idaho State) is a disaster.
1 comment:
Idaho and Montana should both join the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Football only. That would bump their membership to 12, and very likely the western division of that conference would be those two, three teams from the Dakotas including that one with a dynasty in progress, and Northern Iowa. It makes every kind of sense possible, aside from the fact that it's FCS rather than FBS. For Idaho, that would mean those five are division games every year, it could have a protected game against Missouri St every year to reduce travel, and then one more conference game rotating between Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Very reasonable travel, they'd get to play against the best of the FCS on a regular basis, and I bet they win more than one game in conference play as well as overall. Major moves might not be available for another 10 years or so, this probably winds up being the best move that allows anyone to start seeing Idaho football as a winning program.
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