In my previous blog entries, I have assumed that the four basketball-only members of the WAC, and the three remaining football programs would have to find other conferences, as the WAC may not survive as a basketball conference. I may have been premature in my analysis. Here is why.
First, the only of the remaining WAC programs that is even remotely addressing the issue of leaving at this point is Texas State. If New Mexico State and Idaho only move their football programs to the Sun Belt Conference, the WAC may be able to survive as a basketball conference, and the other non-football and mid-major conferences in the West can breathe a sigh of relief. Here is why.
The West Coast Conference is currently at 10 members. Adding Seattle and Denver would make it 12.
The Big West Conference is currently at 10 members, and 9 of the 10 are in California. Would they want to add New Mexico State and Idaho?
The Sun Belt Conference will be at 10 members for basketball after North Texas and Florida International Leave. Presumably, they are making room for Georgia State and South Alabama as well as Texas State. Would there be room for Idaho and New Mexico State?
The Big Sky Conference is at 11 full-time members, with most programs losing money in basketball. Would they add Idaho and New Mexico state as non-football members?
Perhaps the best solution is for the WAC to keep operating as non-football conference. Here is how that can work out.
New Mexico and Idaho join the Sun Belt Conference as football-only members. Texas State joins for all sports. The Sun Belt Conference, which will be a 9 football members in 2013, could add 3 and have a conference championship game. For basketball, the addition of Texas State would bring the conference to 12, which matches their current membership.
The WAC would need to make a move and immediately add Utah Valley and CS Bakersfield and that would put them at 8 basketball members. They would keep their NCAA automatic bid. It would take the pressure off of other western basketball conferences. No expanded footprints, no additional travel costs and no unbalanced schedules. The WAC has to make their move before someone else jumps ship.
New non-football WAC?
Boise State (Football in Big East)
CS Bakersfield (No Football)
Denver (No Football)
Idaho (Football in Sun Belt)
New Mexico State (Football in Sun Belt)
Seattle (No Football)
UT Arlington (No Football)
Utah Valley (No Football)
5/1/2012 update...
CBS reports that UT Arlington will join the Sun Belt Conference with Texas State. The numbers leave Idaho and New Mexico State without a conference.
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