Saturday, April 30, 2011

Big Sky Conference Divisional Alignment for Football

The Big Sky Conference is will not split into division for football, but have a one division format at least through 2015. They have decided to have a schedule where each school will play their two biggest rivals every season and then play everyone else on a rotating basis. To have a championship game would require beginning the season a weak early or not having a bye week. Most coaches, at this time, are not willing to use either option for a championship game.

The BSC does not need to have a championship game. They are a FCS power conference and should get 3 to 4 teams in the playoffs every season. Some years they will only have 2 teams and some years the conference could even get 5 playoff teams. Having a championship game will not help nor risk that advantage unless there is another season like 2010 where there were only 1 or 2 playoff teams. Imagine what could have happened if Eastern Washington had lost to Sacramento State in the conference championship game in 2010, had it been held? The Eagles, the eventual National Champions could have been bumped from the playoffs altogether and not had a post-season bid at all. The automatic bid would have gone to the much weaker Hornets and the second team in the conference to have been invited would have been the Montana State Bobcats. Remember that both Montana State and Eastern Washington were ranked very close at the end of last season.

I know that not all Big Sky fans are happy with this development. But there are other advantages other than playoff spots. There is the opportunity to preserve rivalries and to avoid the problems that an odd number of teams would create with divisional scheduling. Some years, the BSC would have scheduled 8 conference games and other years they would have scheduled 9.

My main concern with this format is how the tie breakers work out if two teams are tied for first who did not play each other and have identical conference records. But with 3 to 5 teams in the playoffs, this matters little. This scenario will only be scary if the BSC will have only 1 team in the post-season. The answer is that the conference needs to remain one of the strongest at the FCS level. They need to maintain a level where 3 to 5 teams will make the post season. Then tie breakers will not matter. With a strong conference, both teams can be named champion and both teams will make the playoffs.

I can see a scenario where 4 teams finish with a 6-2 conference record and an 8-3 overall record. Here is how the tie breakers should work.

1. Losses against lower-division opponents. If one of these teams has a loss against a DII or an NAIA school, then they should be eliminated first. They would be a weaker selection for the BSC. This should be taken into account first, because the team with a loss to a lower-division school would have a better record against D I teams.
2. Wins against FBS teams. If one of the remain teams has a win against an FBS team, they would a stronger selection for the conference.
3. Overall D-I record. The team with a better record against when considering only Division I opponents.
4. Overall FCS record. The team with the better record against only FCS opponents.
5. Road record. The team with the better record in overall road games.
6. National ranking.

In summary, here is what the conference gains with the one division model. 1. No August conference games. 2. Preservation of a bye week. 3. Preservation of local rivalries. 4. No championship game risk.

What could have been gained from a division alignment? 1. Divisional rivals. 2. Travel expenses. 3. National exposure that a championship game brings. 4. No tie breakers for the automatic playoff bid.

The rivals will play each other every season. For example, Southern Utah will play Weber State and Northern Arizona every season. Weber State will play SUU and Idaho State every season. The rest of the conference will play on a rotating basis, with six additional conference games each season. This leaves an opening for three non-conference games. Outside of the official set schedule, conference members can schedule each other and have that game as a non-conference game. Here is how the rivals break down.

The Big Sky Rivals

UC Davis
Cal Poly
Sacramento State

Cal Poly
UC Davis
Sacramento State

Eastern Washington
Montana
Portland State

Idaho State
Portland State
Weber State

Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana State

Montana State
Montana
North Dakota

Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Northern Arizona

North Dakota
Montana State
Northern Colorado

Portland State
Eastern Washington
Idaho State

Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis

Southern Utah
Northern Arizona
Weber State

Weber State
Idaho State
Southern Utah

For more details.

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