Here is the updated information on Bowl Tie ins for the next few years.
PAC-12
1. Rose (BCS) vs Big 10
2. Alamo vs Big 12
3. Holiday vs Big 12
4. Sun vs ACC
5. Las Vegas vs MWC
6. Kraft Fight Hunger vs Army (or WAC).
2012-2013
7. New Mexico vs MWC
2014 and Beyond
7. Los Angeles/CMN vs BYU (If certified. Put on hold until 2014).
BYU
2011 Armed Forces vs C-USA
2012 Poinsettia vs MWC
2013 Kraft Fight Hunger vs PAC-12
2014 and beyond Los Angeles/CMN vis PAC-12 (If certified. Put on hold until 2014).
WAC
2011
1. Poinsettia vs MWC
2. Humanitarian vs MAC
3. New Mexico vs MWC
4. Hawaii--goes to Hawaii if bowl eligible and not BCS bound
5. Alt for Kraft Fight Hunger if Army is not bowl eligible or is BCS bound.
2012 and Beyond
1. Humanitarian
Possible
2. 2014 Return to the New Mexico Bowl if the LA/CMN bowl is certified.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Big Sky Conference Divisional Alignment for Football
The Big Sky Conference is will not split into division for football, but have a one division format at least through 2015. They have decided to have a schedule where each school will play their two biggest rivals every season and then play everyone else on a rotating basis. To have a championship game would require beginning the season a weak early or not having a bye week. Most coaches, at this time, are not willing to use either option for a championship game.
The BSC does not need to have a championship game. They are a FCS power conference and should get 3 to 4 teams in the playoffs every season. Some years they will only have 2 teams and some years the conference could even get 5 playoff teams. Having a championship game will not help nor risk that advantage unless there is another season like 2010 where there were only 1 or 2 playoff teams. Imagine what could have happened if Eastern Washington had lost to Sacramento State in the conference championship game in 2010, had it been held? The Eagles, the eventual National Champions could have been bumped from the playoffs altogether and not had a post-season bid at all. The automatic bid would have gone to the much weaker Hornets and the second team in the conference to have been invited would have been the Montana State Bobcats. Remember that both Montana State and Eastern Washington were ranked very close at the end of last season.
I know that not all Big Sky fans are happy with this development. But there are other advantages other than playoff spots. There is the opportunity to preserve rivalries and to avoid the problems that an odd number of teams would create with divisional scheduling. Some years, the BSC would have scheduled 8 conference games and other years they would have scheduled 9.
My main concern with this format is how the tie breakers work out if two teams are tied for first who did not play each other and have identical conference records. But with 3 to 5 teams in the playoffs, this matters little. This scenario will only be scary if the BSC will have only 1 team in the post-season. The answer is that the conference needs to remain one of the strongest at the FCS level. They need to maintain a level where 3 to 5 teams will make the post season. Then tie breakers will not matter. With a strong conference, both teams can be named champion and both teams will make the playoffs.
I can see a scenario where 4 teams finish with a 6-2 conference record and an 8-3 overall record. Here is how the tie breakers should work.
1. Losses against lower-division opponents. If one of these teams has a loss against a DII or an NAIA school, then they should be eliminated first. They would be a weaker selection for the BSC. This should be taken into account first, because the team with a loss to a lower-division school would have a better record against D I teams.
2. Wins against FBS teams. If one of the remain teams has a win against an FBS team, they would a stronger selection for the conference.
3. Overall D-I record. The team with a better record against when considering only Division I opponents.
4. Overall FCS record. The team with the better record against only FCS opponents.
5. Road record. The team with the better record in overall road games.
6. National ranking.
In summary, here is what the conference gains with the one division model. 1. No August conference games. 2. Preservation of a bye week. 3. Preservation of local rivalries. 4. No championship game risk.
What could have been gained from a division alignment? 1. Divisional rivals. 2. Travel expenses. 3. National exposure that a championship game brings. 4. No tie breakers for the automatic playoff bid.
The rivals will play each other every season. For example, Southern Utah will play Weber State and Northern Arizona every season. Weber State will play SUU and Idaho State every season. The rest of the conference will play on a rotating basis, with six additional conference games each season. This leaves an opening for three non-conference games. Outside of the official set schedule, conference members can schedule each other and have that game as a non-conference game. Here is how the rivals break down.
The Big Sky Rivals
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Sacramento State
Eastern Washington
Montana
Portland State
Idaho State
Portland State
Weber State
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana State
Montana State
Montana
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
Montana State
Northern Colorado
Portland State
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Southern Utah
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Weber State
Idaho State
Southern Utah
For more details.
The BSC does not need to have a championship game. They are a FCS power conference and should get 3 to 4 teams in the playoffs every season. Some years they will only have 2 teams and some years the conference could even get 5 playoff teams. Having a championship game will not help nor risk that advantage unless there is another season like 2010 where there were only 1 or 2 playoff teams. Imagine what could have happened if Eastern Washington had lost to Sacramento State in the conference championship game in 2010, had it been held? The Eagles, the eventual National Champions could have been bumped from the playoffs altogether and not had a post-season bid at all. The automatic bid would have gone to the much weaker Hornets and the second team in the conference to have been invited would have been the Montana State Bobcats. Remember that both Montana State and Eastern Washington were ranked very close at the end of last season.
I know that not all Big Sky fans are happy with this development. But there are other advantages other than playoff spots. There is the opportunity to preserve rivalries and to avoid the problems that an odd number of teams would create with divisional scheduling. Some years, the BSC would have scheduled 8 conference games and other years they would have scheduled 9.
My main concern with this format is how the tie breakers work out if two teams are tied for first who did not play each other and have identical conference records. But with 3 to 5 teams in the playoffs, this matters little. This scenario will only be scary if the BSC will have only 1 team in the post-season. The answer is that the conference needs to remain one of the strongest at the FCS level. They need to maintain a level where 3 to 5 teams will make the post season. Then tie breakers will not matter. With a strong conference, both teams can be named champion and both teams will make the playoffs.
I can see a scenario where 4 teams finish with a 6-2 conference record and an 8-3 overall record. Here is how the tie breakers should work.
1. Losses against lower-division opponents. If one of these teams has a loss against a DII or an NAIA school, then they should be eliminated first. They would be a weaker selection for the BSC. This should be taken into account first, because the team with a loss to a lower-division school would have a better record against D I teams.
2. Wins against FBS teams. If one of the remain teams has a win against an FBS team, they would a stronger selection for the conference.
3. Overall D-I record. The team with a better record against when considering only Division I opponents.
4. Overall FCS record. The team with the better record against only FCS opponents.
5. Road record. The team with the better record in overall road games.
6. National ranking.
In summary, here is what the conference gains with the one division model. 1. No August conference games. 2. Preservation of a bye week. 3. Preservation of local rivalries. 4. No championship game risk.
What could have been gained from a division alignment? 1. Divisional rivals. 2. Travel expenses. 3. National exposure that a championship game brings. 4. No tie breakers for the automatic playoff bid.
The rivals will play each other every season. For example, Southern Utah will play Weber State and Northern Arizona every season. Weber State will play SUU and Idaho State every season. The rest of the conference will play on a rotating basis, with six additional conference games each season. This leaves an opening for three non-conference games. Outside of the official set schedule, conference members can schedule each other and have that game as a non-conference game. Here is how the rivals break down.
The Big Sky Rivals
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Sacramento State
Eastern Washington
Montana
Portland State
Idaho State
Portland State
Weber State
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana State
Montana State
Montana
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
Montana State
Northern Colorado
Portland State
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Southern Utah
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Weber State
Idaho State
Southern Utah
For more details.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Christmas Bowl in 2014 and Solution to the Bowl Dilemma.
This post is in response to the artcile in the San Jose Mercury News about BYU aligning themselves permanently with the Christmas Bowl beginning in 2014. For those of you unfamiliar with the Christmas Bowl, let me elaborate.
The game will be played on Christmas Day beginning in 2014. The game will be played on the day after Christmas when Christmas day falls on a Sunday. Not just because of BYU but also to avoid a conflict with the NFL. (In 2014, Christmas falls on Thursday. The next time Christmas falls on Sunday is 2011 and then 2016). It will be played initially in the Los Angeles Memorial Colosseum, but will move to a new NFL stadium in LA once one is finished. (Either in downtown LA or in the City of Industry) It is being set up as a non-profit bowl. The profits will instead go to the Children's Miracle Network. It is anticipated that the other opponent will be either from the Big 10 or the PAC 12.
Now there is concern that another bowl or two, without some bowl folding, will put the NCAA in a position where a 5-7 team gets a bowl game. The NCAA can not limit the number of bowl games. There is a simple way to avoid this. My solution is to let the FCS into bowl games provided that conditions are met. The conditions are:
1. There must be no FBS team with a .500 or better record available.
2. The FCS team must have played 13 games or less. This means that they would have been eliminated in the first, second or third round of the FCS playoffs. Once a team makes it to the FCS final four, they would not be able to be invited to a bowl game.
3. The FCS team must have at least 7 wins.
4. The bowl must agree not to force the FCS team to purchase an allotment of tickets.
The NCAA is currently studying the bowl issue in the wake of the Fiesta Bowl scandal. No new bowls will be certified until 2014.
For example. If the New Mexico Bowl in 2010 did not have 6-6 UTEP or any other bowl-eligible team to invite, they could have invited 9-3 Montana State instead of any 5-7 team. Either a 5-7 FBS team or any FCS team in a bowl game would be a loss, but at least the FCS team is a winner and would be happy to be there.
The game will be played on Christmas Day beginning in 2014. The game will be played on the day after Christmas when Christmas day falls on a Sunday. Not just because of BYU but also to avoid a conflict with the NFL. (In 2014, Christmas falls on Thursday. The next time Christmas falls on Sunday is 2011 and then 2016). It will be played initially in the Los Angeles Memorial Colosseum, but will move to a new NFL stadium in LA once one is finished. (Either in downtown LA or in the City of Industry) It is being set up as a non-profit bowl. The profits will instead go to the Children's Miracle Network. It is anticipated that the other opponent will be either from the Big 10 or the PAC 12.
Now there is concern that another bowl or two, without some bowl folding, will put the NCAA in a position where a 5-7 team gets a bowl game. The NCAA can not limit the number of bowl games. There is a simple way to avoid this. My solution is to let the FCS into bowl games provided that conditions are met. The conditions are:
1. There must be no FBS team with a .500 or better record available.
2. The FCS team must have played 13 games or less. This means that they would have been eliminated in the first, second or third round of the FCS playoffs. Once a team makes it to the FCS final four, they would not be able to be invited to a bowl game.
3. The FCS team must have at least 7 wins.
4. The bowl must agree not to force the FCS team to purchase an allotment of tickets.
The NCAA is currently studying the bowl issue in the wake of the Fiesta Bowl scandal. No new bowls will be certified until 2014.
For example. If the New Mexico Bowl in 2010 did not have 6-6 UTEP or any other bowl-eligible team to invite, they could have invited 9-3 Montana State instead of any 5-7 team. Either a 5-7 FBS team or any FCS team in a bowl game would be a loss, but at least the FCS team is a winner and would be happy to be there.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Who is on tap for 2012?--An early look--New Schedule Thread.
This post will be updated as information becomes available. Last updated 11/28/2011.
BYU 2012 Schedule
S1 @Georgia Tech
S8 Hawaii
S15 @ Utah
S22 @ Boise State
S29 Washington State
O6 Utah State
O13 Oregon State
O20 @ Notre Dame
O27 Weber State
N3 Idaho
N10 @ New Mexico State
N17 Open
N24 @ San Jose State
Note of Conflicting Reports: According to Greg Wrubbel at KSL, Hawaii @ BYU will be September 8. It is assumed that the Weber State at BYU game will therefore be on October 27th, where BYU and Weber both have openings. Washington State is assumed to be September 29 due to the PAC-12 policy of restricting non-conference games in October and November...yet the Oregon State game is in October. The last three games of the season come from another source and may change. FBSchedules.com does not have Washington State, Hawaii, Idaho, @ New Mexico State and @ San Jose State scheduled and has Weber State as September 8th.
Bowl Game Commitment: Poinsettia
Utah 2012 schedule
A30 Washington State
S8 @Utah State
S15 BYU
S22 Open
S29 Open
O6 Open
O13 Open
O20 Open
O27 Open
N3 Open
N10 Open
N17 Open
N24 @ Colorado
D1 PAC-12 Championship Game
Unscheduled home games: USC and Arizona
Unscheduled road games: UCLA and Arizona State
Unscheduled: 3 more PAC-12 games, 1 at home, 2 on the road.
Need: 1 more non-conference game
What to expect:
The remaining game to be scheduled will likely be an FCS team as it was in 2011. In the Big Sky Conference, Idaho State and Northern Colorado have openings that will fit Utah's schedule.
Utah State 2012 Schedule
S1 Southern Utah
S8 Utah
S15 @ Wisconsin
S22 @ Colorado State
S29 UNLV
O6 @BYU
O13 Open
O20 Open
O27 Open
N3 Open
N10 Open
N17 Open
N24 Open
D1 Open
Unscheduled conference home games: Idaho, Texas State, New Mexico State
Unscheduled conference road games: San Jose State, UTSA, Louisiana Tech
Weber State 2012 schedule
Note: The Big Sky Conference has announced the conference schedule through 2015. Even though there are 13 members, there is only one division. For more details, follow this link. Weber State and Southern Utah are designated rivals by the Big Sky Conference and will play each other every season. WSU's other rival is Idaho State and SUU's other rival is Northern Arizona. According to the Standard Examiner, SUU and Weber State have agreed to play their games at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah; home of Real Salt Lake. It will be played on a Friday to avoid a potential conflict with the Major League Soccer playoffs.
S1 @ Fresno State
S8 Open
S15 Open
S22 Eastern Washington (Probable HC)
S29 @ UC Davis
O6 Cal Poly
O13 @ Sacramento State
O19 vs Southern Utah at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, UT
O27 @ BYU
N3 Montana
N10 Northern Colorado
N17 @ Idaho State
N24 FCS Playoffs opening round
See note on BYU game above.
Need 1 more non-conference game, likely a home game against an unscheduled BSC opponent that will count as a non conference game for both schools. Likely foe will be either Portland State or North Dakota.
Southern Utah 2012 schedule
S1 @ Utah State
S8 Open
S15 Open
S22 @ Portland State
S29 Montana State
O6 Sacramento State
O13 @ Montana
O19 vs Weber State at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, UT
O27 Eastern Washington
N3 @ North Dakota
N10 @ Northern Arizona
N17 Open
N24 FCS Playoffs opening round
What to expect:SUU needs 2 more games, one should be a home game and one will be a road game. One of the games will likely be against a Big Sky foe and will count as a non-conference game for both schools. That game could be Cal Poly, UC Davis or Idaho State.
BYU 2012 Schedule
S1 @Georgia Tech
S8 Hawaii
S15 @ Utah
S22 @ Boise State
S29 Washington State
O6 Utah State
O13 Oregon State
O20 @ Notre Dame
O27 Weber State
N3 Idaho
N10 @ New Mexico State
N17 Open
N24 @ San Jose State
Note of Conflicting Reports: According to Greg Wrubbel at KSL, Hawaii @ BYU will be September 8. It is assumed that the Weber State at BYU game will therefore be on October 27th, where BYU and Weber both have openings. Washington State is assumed to be September 29 due to the PAC-12 policy of restricting non-conference games in October and November...yet the Oregon State game is in October. The last three games of the season come from another source and may change. FBSchedules.com does not have Washington State, Hawaii, Idaho, @ New Mexico State and @ San Jose State scheduled and has Weber State as September 8th.
Bowl Game Commitment: Poinsettia
Utah 2012 schedule
A30 Washington State
S8 @Utah State
S15 BYU
S22 Open
S29 Open
O6 Open
O13 Open
O20 Open
O27 Open
N3 Open
N10 Open
N17 Open
N24 @ Colorado
D1 PAC-12 Championship Game
Unscheduled home games: USC and Arizona
Unscheduled road games: UCLA and Arizona State
Unscheduled: 3 more PAC-12 games, 1 at home, 2 on the road.
Need: 1 more non-conference game
What to expect:
The remaining game to be scheduled will likely be an FCS team as it was in 2011. In the Big Sky Conference, Idaho State and Northern Colorado have openings that will fit Utah's schedule.
Utah State 2012 Schedule
S1 Southern Utah
S8 Utah
S15 @ Wisconsin
S22 @ Colorado State
S29 UNLV
O6 @BYU
O13 Open
O20 Open
O27 Open
N3 Open
N10 Open
N17 Open
N24 Open
D1 Open
Unscheduled conference home games: Idaho, Texas State, New Mexico State
Unscheduled conference road games: San Jose State, UTSA, Louisiana Tech
Weber State 2012 schedule
Note: The Big Sky Conference has announced the conference schedule through 2015. Even though there are 13 members, there is only one division. For more details, follow this link. Weber State and Southern Utah are designated rivals by the Big Sky Conference and will play each other every season. WSU's other rival is Idaho State and SUU's other rival is Northern Arizona. According to the Standard Examiner, SUU and Weber State have agreed to play their games at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah; home of Real Salt Lake. It will be played on a Friday to avoid a potential conflict with the Major League Soccer playoffs.
S1 @ Fresno State
S8 Open
S15 Open
S22 Eastern Washington (Probable HC)
S29 @ UC Davis
O6 Cal Poly
O13 @ Sacramento State
O19 vs Southern Utah at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, UT
O27 @ BYU
N3 Montana
N10 Northern Colorado
N17 @ Idaho State
N24 FCS Playoffs opening round
See note on BYU game above.
Need 1 more non-conference game, likely a home game against an unscheduled BSC opponent that will count as a non conference game for both schools. Likely foe will be either Portland State or North Dakota.
Southern Utah 2012 schedule
S1 @ Utah State
S8 Open
S15 Open
S22 @ Portland State
S29 Montana State
O6 Sacramento State
O13 @ Montana
O19 vs Weber State at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, UT
O27 Eastern Washington
N3 @ North Dakota
N10 @ Northern Arizona
N17 Open
N24 FCS Playoffs opening round
What to expect:SUU needs 2 more games, one should be a home game and one will be a road game. One of the games will likely be against a Big Sky foe and will count as a non-conference game for both schools. That game could be Cal Poly, UC Davis or Idaho State.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Post spring practice power rankings.
The Aggies and Wildcats looked better in their spring game than I though they were...Utah's offense looked really bad or their defense looked really good. I don't really know what to think about BYU's spring game, but Bronco was pleased.
FBS Independents...
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Brigham Young Cougars
3. Navy Midshipmen
4. Army Black Knights
PAC 12
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Stanford Cardinal
3. Arizona Wildcats
4. Arizona State Sun Devils
5. USC Trojans(Ineligible for post-season)
6. Utah Utes
7. Washington Huskies
8. Oregon State Beavers
9. California Golden Bears
10. UCLA Bruins
11. Colorado Buffaloes
12. Washington State Cougars
WAC
1. Hawaii Warriors
2. Nevada Wolfpack
3. Fresno State Bulldogs
4. Idaho Vandals
5. Utah State Aggies
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
7. New Mexico State Aggies
8. San Jose State Spartans
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington Eagles
2. Weber State Wildcats
3. Montana State Bobcats
4. Montana Grizzlies
5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
6. Portland State Vikings
7. Sacramento State Hornets
8. Northern Colorado Bears
9. Idaho State Bengals
Great West
1. Cal Poly Mustangs
2. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3. UC Davis Aggies
4. North Dakota Sioux
5. South Dakota Coyotes
FBS Independents...
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Brigham Young Cougars
3. Navy Midshipmen
4. Army Black Knights
PAC 12
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Stanford Cardinal
3. Arizona Wildcats
4. Arizona State Sun Devils
5. USC Trojans(Ineligible for post-season)
6. Utah Utes
7. Washington Huskies
8. Oregon State Beavers
9. California Golden Bears
10. UCLA Bruins
11. Colorado Buffaloes
12. Washington State Cougars
WAC
1. Hawaii Warriors
2. Nevada Wolfpack
3. Fresno State Bulldogs
4. Idaho Vandals
5. Utah State Aggies
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
7. New Mexico State Aggies
8. San Jose State Spartans
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington Eagles
2. Weber State Wildcats
3. Montana State Bobcats
4. Montana Grizzlies
5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
6. Portland State Vikings
7. Sacramento State Hornets
8. Northern Colorado Bears
9. Idaho State Bengals
Great West
1. Cal Poly Mustangs
2. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3. UC Davis Aggies
4. North Dakota Sioux
5. South Dakota Coyotes
Saturday, April 9, 2011
WAC Expansion Models...Advantages and Disadvantages for Each.
The WAC did not meet their original deadline to be fully-expanded by April 1st of this year. Of course they did add Texas State, Texas San Antonio and Denver in November. But then they recently lost Hawaii. The reason for this is that the WAC Athletic Directors do not agree, yet, on the model for their conference.
In football, Division the FBS schedule is 12 games. If you play a road game in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico you can schedule a 13th game. But there is only one football program this exception applies to and most WAC schools are well aware of this.
There is no hard and fast rule on the number of basketball games a team should schedule in a season. Generally, however, it is an unwritten rule that 20 wins is the standard for post-season play. Most teams schedule 29 games and the conference tournament will give them at least 30 games.
The BYU agreement, according to San Jose State's athletic director, will likely continue as long as both the WAC and BYU need it. Utah State and BYU will likely play every season. San Jose State and Idaho both are in communities where there is a significant LDS population and will benefit from scheduling the Cougars regularly. Louisiana Tech will likely benefit from this arrangement the least. What level this continues at is anyone's guess at this time.
Optimal size for football...
7 teams.
Assuming no more expansion, raids from other conferences or relegation, the WAC will be at 7 teams for football. This will mean that there will be six conference games scheduled each season, 3 at home and 3 on the road. This means that schools will need to schedule six non-conference games. Even with the BYU agreement, this will be difficult. This means non-conference games in October and even November. This is far from optimal. The main advantage would be exposure for the conference as teams would not have to chose between a money game against a big school and an easy win against an FCS school. WAC teams would be able to schedule both.
8 teams.
This means 7 conference games and this is considered a good size when the standard college football season was 11 games. This means an unbalanced conference schedule, some years you have 4 home conference games and other years you have 4 road conference games. It also means 5 non conference games. Usually this would also have the same advantage as a 7 team conference, teams would be able to schedule a money game...a road game against a big BCS school and a home game against an FCS school. If this WAC decides on this model, look for Lamar to be added.
9 teams.
This means 8 conference games and 4 non conference games. The conference schedule would be balanced between road and home games. This allows for a money game and a game against an FCS team. This means that the WAC would add two for football. If the WAC decides on this model, then I expect that Montana and Montana State will be the invitees.
10 teams.
This means 9 conference games and 3 non-conference games. This worked well for the PAC-10, but a conference like the WAC may not work out so nice. The reason is the WAC are the ones who are the opponents in the money games. With a 10-team conference, one team may end up with only 5 home games. But if the WAC chooses this model, then look for Lamar, Montana and Montana State to be invited.
11 teams.
This works well if the conference is willing to play an unbalanced schedule. The conference could play 9 conference games and 3 non-conference games. There would be the same challenges as a 10 team conference, except the unbalanced schedule puts another challenge into it. 11 works out nice for basketball, so if the conference leaders choose this size expect one of the teams to be a football-only team. Lamar, Montana, Montana State would be invited as full-time members and Cal-Poly as a football only member.
12 teams.
Split into divisions. As we have blogged before, the main benefit the WAC can gain by going to 12 teams is to reduce travel costs. To make this work, the expansion committee will need to consider regional grouping. In New Mexico, Texas and Louisiana there are now four teams, there will need to be two more in this area to make a 12 team WAC work. Two divisions means 5 games against other teams in the same division and four games against teams from the other division for 9 conference games. Therefore, if the WAC chooses this model, expect the full-time members to be Lamar, Sam Houston State, Montana, Montana State and Cal-Poly as a football-only member.
Others the WAC will consider...or plan B...
Western/Northern Half...Portland State, Sacramento State, Northern Arizona, Weber State and Eastern Washington as full-time members. UC Davis and Sacramento State at football-only members.
Eastern/Southern Alternatives...
Stephen F. Austin and Northeastern State.
In football, Division the FBS schedule is 12 games. If you play a road game in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico you can schedule a 13th game. But there is only one football program this exception applies to and most WAC schools are well aware of this.
There is no hard and fast rule on the number of basketball games a team should schedule in a season. Generally, however, it is an unwritten rule that 20 wins is the standard for post-season play. Most teams schedule 29 games and the conference tournament will give them at least 30 games.
The BYU agreement, according to San Jose State's athletic director, will likely continue as long as both the WAC and BYU need it. Utah State and BYU will likely play every season. San Jose State and Idaho both are in communities where there is a significant LDS population and will benefit from scheduling the Cougars regularly. Louisiana Tech will likely benefit from this arrangement the least. What level this continues at is anyone's guess at this time.
Optimal size for football...
7 teams.
Assuming no more expansion, raids from other conferences or relegation, the WAC will be at 7 teams for football. This will mean that there will be six conference games scheduled each season, 3 at home and 3 on the road. This means that schools will need to schedule six non-conference games. Even with the BYU agreement, this will be difficult. This means non-conference games in October and even November. This is far from optimal. The main advantage would be exposure for the conference as teams would not have to chose between a money game against a big school and an easy win against an FCS school. WAC teams would be able to schedule both.
8 teams.
This means 7 conference games and this is considered a good size when the standard college football season was 11 games. This means an unbalanced conference schedule, some years you have 4 home conference games and other years you have 4 road conference games. It also means 5 non conference games. Usually this would also have the same advantage as a 7 team conference, teams would be able to schedule a money game...a road game against a big BCS school and a home game against an FCS school. If this WAC decides on this model, look for Lamar to be added.
9 teams.
This means 8 conference games and 4 non conference games. The conference schedule would be balanced between road and home games. This allows for a money game and a game against an FCS team. This means that the WAC would add two for football. If the WAC decides on this model, then I expect that Montana and Montana State will be the invitees.
10 teams.
This means 9 conference games and 3 non-conference games. This worked well for the PAC-10, but a conference like the WAC may not work out so nice. The reason is the WAC are the ones who are the opponents in the money games. With a 10-team conference, one team may end up with only 5 home games. But if the WAC chooses this model, then look for Lamar, Montana and Montana State to be invited.
11 teams.
This works well if the conference is willing to play an unbalanced schedule. The conference could play 9 conference games and 3 non-conference games. There would be the same challenges as a 10 team conference, except the unbalanced schedule puts another challenge into it. 11 works out nice for basketball, so if the conference leaders choose this size expect one of the teams to be a football-only team. Lamar, Montana, Montana State would be invited as full-time members and Cal-Poly as a football only member.
12 teams.
Split into divisions. As we have blogged before, the main benefit the WAC can gain by going to 12 teams is to reduce travel costs. To make this work, the expansion committee will need to consider regional grouping. In New Mexico, Texas and Louisiana there are now four teams, there will need to be two more in this area to make a 12 team WAC work. Two divisions means 5 games against other teams in the same division and four games against teams from the other division for 9 conference games. Therefore, if the WAC chooses this model, expect the full-time members to be Lamar, Sam Houston State, Montana, Montana State and Cal-Poly as a football-only member.
Others the WAC will consider...or plan B...
Western/Northern Half...Portland State, Sacramento State, Northern Arizona, Weber State and Eastern Washington as full-time members. UC Davis and Sacramento State at football-only members.
Eastern/Southern Alternatives...
Stephen F. Austin and Northeastern State.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Power rankings for 2011-12 for the PAC-12, WCC, WAC and Big Sky Conferences
Edition 1, the coaching counsel is spinning.
PAC-12
This conference is at the top of the food chain and likely will not lose any coaches unless the NBA comes calling. Utah hired Larry Krystowiak and is hoping to hold their team together. There is no reason to doubt that the Arizona will be the team to beat next year as they have a system designed to keep them on top. UCLA, Washington and USC return young teams. California should be improved and Colorado brings in a team that shocked the Big 12 this year. Washington State and Oregon also bring in teams that made moves in the smaller post-season tournaments. Utah is not in a good place to move to a new conference next year.
1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. USC
5. California
6. Colorado
7. Washington State
8. Oregon
9. Stanford
10. Arizona State
11. Oregon State
12. Utah
West Coast Conference
Dave Rose will be back in Provo with just about everyone but Jimmer and probably assistant Dave Rice. Gonzaga returns everyone but Grey. I have to give the advantage to the Zags at this point, but it could change by the time the WCC season kicks off and the new BYU team has had the chance to gel. It is going to be interesting to see who finishes on top next year. St. Mary's fans are breathing a sigh of relief as Randy Bennett is staying. San Francisco, Portland and Santa Clara look to make the conference race more interesting.
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. St. Mary's
4. San Francisco
5. Portland
6. Santa Clara
7. Pepperdine
8. Loyola Marymount
9. San Diego
WAC
Stew will be back with a mostly new crew in 2011-12, but not to worry, the only real competition from 2010-11 will be in the Mountain West. Stew Morrill will have a crew ready for the rest of the WAC. Hawaii will continue to improve and will be much improved for their last season in the WAC. Idaho will continue to get better. Folks in Moscow should really go and see these guys play. Fresno State is still looking for a replacement for Steve Cleveland as Montana's Wayne Tinkle has said no.
1. Utah State
2. Idaho
3. Hawaii
4. New Mexico State
5. Nevada
6. Fresno State
7. San Jose State
8. Louisiana Tech
Big Sky
The conference is most likely the one that will be effected by the coaching counsel, but this year's champion is losing 4 seniors and will not be the same next year. Damian Lillard should be back for at least one more season, and WSU should be much better having learned to play without him. Coach Rahe will have more options. Montana will be without Qvale, but returns everyone else including Will Cherry and Coach Wayne Tinkle who could not find an acceptable deal in Fresno. Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona both lose too many key people to be serious contenders next year. Portland State will be improved. This will be the last season of the 9-team basketball Big Sky. 2012-13 will see North Dakota and Southern Utah join the conference and possibly see Sacramento State become a football-only school.
1. Weber State
2. Montana
3. Portland State
4. Northern Colorado
5. Northern Arizona
6. Eastern Washington
7. Montana State
8. Idaho State
9. Sacramento State
PAC-12
This conference is at the top of the food chain and likely will not lose any coaches unless the NBA comes calling. Utah hired Larry Krystowiak and is hoping to hold their team together. There is no reason to doubt that the Arizona will be the team to beat next year as they have a system designed to keep them on top. UCLA, Washington and USC return young teams. California should be improved and Colorado brings in a team that shocked the Big 12 this year. Washington State and Oregon also bring in teams that made moves in the smaller post-season tournaments. Utah is not in a good place to move to a new conference next year.
1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. USC
5. California
6. Colorado
7. Washington State
8. Oregon
9. Stanford
10. Arizona State
11. Oregon State
12. Utah
West Coast Conference
Dave Rose will be back in Provo with just about everyone but Jimmer and probably assistant Dave Rice. Gonzaga returns everyone but Grey. I have to give the advantage to the Zags at this point, but it could change by the time the WCC season kicks off and the new BYU team has had the chance to gel. It is going to be interesting to see who finishes on top next year. St. Mary's fans are breathing a sigh of relief as Randy Bennett is staying. San Francisco, Portland and Santa Clara look to make the conference race more interesting.
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. St. Mary's
4. San Francisco
5. Portland
6. Santa Clara
7. Pepperdine
8. Loyola Marymount
9. San Diego
WAC
Stew will be back with a mostly new crew in 2011-12, but not to worry, the only real competition from 2010-11 will be in the Mountain West. Stew Morrill will have a crew ready for the rest of the WAC. Hawaii will continue to improve and will be much improved for their last season in the WAC. Idaho will continue to get better. Folks in Moscow should really go and see these guys play. Fresno State is still looking for a replacement for Steve Cleveland as Montana's Wayne Tinkle has said no.
1. Utah State
2. Idaho
3. Hawaii
4. New Mexico State
5. Nevada
6. Fresno State
7. San Jose State
8. Louisiana Tech
Big Sky
The conference is most likely the one that will be effected by the coaching counsel, but this year's champion is losing 4 seniors and will not be the same next year. Damian Lillard should be back for at least one more season, and WSU should be much better having learned to play without him. Coach Rahe will have more options. Montana will be without Qvale, but returns everyone else including Will Cherry and Coach Wayne Tinkle who could not find an acceptable deal in Fresno. Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona both lose too many key people to be serious contenders next year. Portland State will be improved. This will be the last season of the 9-team basketball Big Sky. 2012-13 will see North Dakota and Southern Utah join the conference and possibly see Sacramento State become a football-only school.
1. Weber State
2. Montana
3. Portland State
4. Northern Colorado
5. Northern Arizona
6. Eastern Washington
7. Montana State
8. Idaho State
9. Sacramento State
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Sticker Shock in Salt Lake
KSL's Sports beat Saturday has just reported that Larry Krystkowiak will be the next Utes Coach. I am not impressed with this hire. I know that there are many Utah fans that would agree. We know that he was no better than Chis Hill's third choice for the job. We know that either Dave Rose or Dave Rice from BYU and Randy Bennett of Saint Mary's were higher on the list. That should show the problems that there are with this program right now.
It is going to be worse in the PAC-12. Sure, only one game against BYU and there will be no more trips to the Pit, nor UNLV or San Diego State. But now you get to play Arizona, UCLA, USC, Cal, Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Colorado and Stanford. Oh well, looks like there will be regular empty seats at the Huntsman center.
It is going to be worse in the PAC-12. Sure, only one game against BYU and there will be no more trips to the Pit, nor UNLV or San Diego State. But now you get to play Arizona, UCLA, USC, Cal, Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Colorado and Stanford. Oh well, looks like there will be regular empty seats at the Huntsman center.
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