BYU's Bowl Options for 2011

Note: As of April 27, 2011 this post is moot. BYU has signed an agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl. They take a bowl slot that was part of the MWC bowl mix. I am not surprised as the MWC has not been able to provide teams for all of their bowl slots for 3 years running. But has also had a team in the BCS each of those three years.

The Armed Forces Bowl is Played on December 30th at SMU's Gerald J. Ford field in Dallas. A very nice stadium that was named after a wealthy booster and not after the former President. If I can swing the trip and the time off, I would be there.

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BYU does not have a bowl contract for 2011 should they not qualify for a BCS game, but remain bowl eligible. But, there are some possibilities, and I am certain that none of these bowl games will pass on the Cougars if there is an opportunity to invite them.

Most likely scenarios...

1. New Mexico Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl or Poinsettia Bowl if either the Mountain West nor the WAC not have enough bowl eligible teams. The MWC had 5 bowl eligible teams in 2010 and is losing 2 of them, but gaining Boise State. The MWC had one team in the BCS in 2010 and could repeat the feat in 2011. That would leave them with 4 bowl eligible teams and 1 in the BCS. That would be 2 open slots. The WAC still has 4 bowls in 2011. The WAC could still end up with 4 bowl eligible teams should Idaho play up to their potential in 2011 and finish 6-6.

MWC 2011 Bowls (Projection)
BCS? (Boise State)
1. Las Vegas (TCU)
2. Poinsettia (San Diego State)
3. Independence (Air Force)
4. Armed Forces (Colorado State?)
5. New Mexico (UNLV?????really????ha, ha, ha, ha ha....that's a good one!)

WAC 2011 Bowls (Projection)
1. Poinsettia (Fresno State)
2. Humanitarian (Nevada)
3. New Mexico (Idaho???big maybe)
-. Hawaii will go to the Hawaii Bowl if they are bowl eligible and not selected by the BCS. Which is where I believe that they will be.

(BTW--in 2012 and 2013 the WAC only has 2 bowls, and only one bowl after 2013. There is talk of moving the Humanitarian Bowl to a warm weather site beginning in 2012...either Berkeley in Cal's new stadium or in the new 49ers stadium in Santa Clara. If this happens, the WAC will at least have one bowl. The New Mexico Bowl goes to the PAC-12 in 2012 and the Hawaii Bowl goes to the MWC with Hawaii in 2012.)

But let's say that by some miracle UNLV, Colorado State and Idaho are all bowl eligible and there is no spot for BYU.

2. Insight Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Texas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl or Military bowl. This seems likely as the Big 12 has 8 bowl commitments but only 10 teams. It does not seem logical that the Big 12, with only 10 teams, will have 8 bowl eligible teams. The Big 12 had only 8 bowl eligible teams in 2010 and is only losing one of the those not bowl eligible. It is possible that the Big 12 will end up with 8 bowl eligible teams with the non-conference creme-puffs they usually schedule. But they are also playing a full-table conference schedule. This means that Iowa State will have 3 non-conference creme puffs and have to come up with 3 or 4 wins against the full Big-12 compliment. It will be harder for Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas to become bowl eligible. They are trading Colorado and Nebraska for the full southern division. If the Insight or Holiday bowl has to chose between 7-5 or 6-6 teams and BYU just misses the BCS, look for one of those bowls to fight for the Cougars. Money is involved, it may not work out.

Big 12 Bowls (Projection)
1. BCS (Oklahoma)
2. Cotton Bowl (Oklahoma State)
3. Alamo Bowl (Texas A&M)
4. Insight Bowl (Texas)
5. Holiday Bowl (Missouri)
6. Texas Bowl (Kansas State?)
7. Pinstripe Bowl (Texas Tech?)
8. Military Bowl (??Kansas/Baylor/Iowa State??)

3. Hawaii Bowl should Hawaii not be bowl eligible or be selected to the BCS. Without Boise State, Hawaii could run the table in 2011 and make the BCS. But Greg McMakin is still the coach and the Warriors have still not shown the old June Jones consistency but I still see at least 7 wins on the Warriors 2011 schedule. If BYU is 7-4 going into the Hawaii game and Hawaii is undefeated does BYU lose this game intentionally to ensure they go to a bowl game? It's not in Bronco's character to do so and hopefully this scenario does not play out.

If certain scenarios play out, however, BYU may end up in a bigger bowl game....

1. Holiday Bowl. They were not happy about having to settle for 6-6 Washington in 2010, even though the Huskies won the game. The attendance was the lowest since 1999 and second lowest since the last Qualcomm Stadium expansion of 1997. If either the PAC-12 or Big 12 team slotted for this game is 6-6, and BYU is 9-3 or better, look for the Holiday Bowl to find a way to invite the Cougars especially if either the Big 12 or the PAC-12 can not fill all of their bowl obligations, possibly even if they do and there is another bowl slot for a 6-6 Texas Tech in Albuquerque. But the PAC-12 only has 6 bowls for 2011, look for that conference to have no problem unless they snatch an at-large BCS birth as well. USC is still not eligible for the post season...they will be again in 2012.

PAC-12 Bowls (Projection)
1. BCS (Rose) (Oregon/Stanford)
2. Alamo (Arizona State)
3. Holiday (Utah)
4. Sun Bowl (Arizona)
5. Las Vegas Bowl (Washington)
6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (Oregon State)
Also probably bowl eligible: UCLA, Cal?
Not Bowl eligible: Colorado, Washington State and USC

mmm...would the Holiday Bowl want a BYU/Utah rematch??? Hey, if it sells tickets, why not!

2. Las Vegas Bowl. Let's say Boise State wins the Mountain West gets a BCS invite and the LV Bowl becomes stuck with TCU...they may find a way to invite BYU instead especially if the MWC does not have enough teams for all of their bowl commitments.

Given all of this, the most likely scenarios I see for BYU are:

1. BYU vs UCLA in the New Mexico Bowl.
2. BYU vs Utah in the Holiday Bowl.
3. BYU vs Iowa in the Insight Bowl.
4. BYU vs Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.
5. BYU vs Nevada in the Humanitarian Bow.
6. BYU vs Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl.
7. BYU vs Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl.
8. BYU vs Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.

A scenario where BYU does not make a bowl game even though they are bowl eligible...if they finish 7-5 or 6-6. It simply comes to a numbers game. There will be 4 at-large BCS berths no matter what. Notre Dame would have to be one of them. The PAC-12, who does not have enough bowl slots would have to take another slot. Same for the Big-10 and the SEC. Then every conference in the country, and both Army and Navy have to fill all of their bowl slots.

OK Readers, let's see what you can come up with!!!!