Moving Sports Franchises...The Ones most likely to move

NFL

It has been 15 years since Art Model quietly left Cleveland for Baltimore and 16 years since the Raiders returned to Oakland.  That is the longest stability of any of the big four leagues in the North America.  The NFL has mostly enjoyed good attendance, but there are a few teams struggling at the gate.  The biggest problem that many NFL teams have right now are stadium issues.  Many NFL franchises are playing in new, state of the art facilities.  But some are playing in facilities that were designed, or redesigned, without a lot of forward thought.  Other franchises are simply not supported in their hometowns as they deserve.

Teams most likely to move:

Oakland Raiders--Where Lambeau Field succeeded, the Oakland Coliseum has failed.  This stadium has become the poster boy for how not to modernize and build a multi-purpose arena.  Both the Raiders and the Athletics are suffering at the gate because of it.  The A's will likely not leave the state of California, but will at most move up-river to Sacramento.  The Raiders may end up back in Los Angeles or in Santa Clara with the 49ers.
Buffalo Bills--In Buffalo, the problem is not the stadium.  Sure, it is one of the older venues in the NFL, it was built with some forward thought and could be modernized on the cheap.  The problem is the city.  Buffalo has been shrinking in population and is about to fall out of the top 50 in the United States.  There is simply the feeling that there are cities more deserving than Buffalo to host an NFL franchise.  A permanent move to Toronto could be in the works.  Sure, Green Bay is smaller and just won the Super Bowl.  But Buffalo is not Green Bay, and may not have an owner that will accept a reduced revenue.
San Diego Chargers--San Diego has been trying for years to replace the outdated Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, but have had trouble finding the funding.  They could be the primary candidates to bring football back to Los Angeles.
Jacksonville Jaguars--The Jags are still struggling at the gate, have covered seats to avoid TV blackouts and many wonder why the city was awarded a franchise in the first place.
Minnesota Vikings--The Vikings lost two home games this season because the roof to the Metrodome collapsed.  It's it supposed to snow a lot in Minnesota?  Shouldn't a venue be able to handle all of that snow.  Three other similar-type stadiums, in Pontiac, Michigan; Vancouver, BC and Indianapolis never had this kind of trouble.  Their lease is considered the worst in the NFL and could be the catalyst to get the Vikings out of town.

Cities most likely to get an NFL Franchise:

1. Los Angeles, California--The second largest market in North America has been without a franchise for 16 years.  There are two stadium proposals on record that are gaining steam.  One is downtown and the other is in the suburbs.  Perhaps two teams can locate to LA.
2. Toronto, Ontario--The Buffalo Bills play one game per year on the north side of Lake Ontario.  Could that be changed to eight games per year?
3. San Antonio, Texas--The Saints played in San Antonio for one season in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  With a little upgrade, the Alamodome would be a nice place for an NFL team to call home.
4. Portland, Oregon--Portland is listed as a city at the top of many prospective sports lists.  But they could not get a AAA baseball stadium built in Portland and an NFL owner may have to pay for the entire place out of pocket.
5. Salt Lake City, Utah--Now that the PAC-12 includes the Utah Utes, some feel that this growing metro would be a great place for an NFL franchise.  It is the largest city in a vast area where the NBA's Jazz are the only big sports franchise around.  (No apology to RSL fans who should realize that MLS is not that big, yet.)  But the NFL may need to have more games on Thursday and Monday to make this move work.


NHL

Right now the NHL is struggling with geography.  Things were going well in the south before the season-long lockout, now teams in the Sun Belt are struggling at the gate and suddenly moving back to Canada makes sense.

1.  Phoenix Coyotes--The NHL kept the Coyotes from moving a couple of years ago, and has the Valley of the Sun turned out to thank the NHL for their intervention?  In 2009-2010, they had the worst attendance in the league.
2.  Atlanta Thrashers--Hockey and the Deep South go together like Jack Daniels and a Mormon ward summer picnic.  They will have trouble finding people who will even notice if the Thrashers leave town.
3.  New York Islanders--The storied franchise deserves better than the hole-in-the-wall Nashua Coliseum as a home.  But New York does not deserve to lose them.
4.  Tampa Bay Lightning--Another southern team that is not well supported in the community.
5.  Nashville Predators--Again, the NHL is struggling to gain a foothold in the deep south. 

Cities most likely to gain an NHL Franchise

1. Kansas City, Missouri--There is a brand new arena in KC and no tenant for it.  KC is a large city which has supported the Chiefs and the Royals so well for years, but no one calls this town home who plays between January and April.
2. Quebec City, Quebec--Since the Nordiques became the Avalanche, this city has longed for some hockey to beat the wintertime blues.
3. Hamilton, Ontario--There are people with money in this more western Ontario city that want to bring Hockey here.  Perhaps to save the planet.  Hockey fans in Hamilton will not have to drive to Detroit or Toronto to get their fix.
4. Portland, Oregon--Unlike football and baseball, a team in Portland has a nice arena to call home if they are willing to share with the Blazers.  Very few NHL teams have the "Joe Lewis" advantage, meaning that they get their own venue.
5. Las Vegas, Nevada--Someone in Las Vegas is willing to gamble on any sports franchise in this growing city.

NBA
The NBA has done well in most cities.  They are the league where a small market team have had success.  Look at Oklahoma City and Utah, for example.  You have small rosters and an influx of international talent. But some teams have not been able to attract good talent and fans have stayed away.  This is probably why the NBA is taking about contraction.  There may not be enough talent to go around.

1.  Memphis Grizzlies--for years this team has had the worst NBA attendecne figures.  It could be the years of futility have taken a toll on fan interest.  It could be that this team should have never moved from Vancouver.
2.  Sacramento Kings--Fortunes have turned in Sacramento.  They were one of the best supported teams in the NBA, but now they struggle at the gate.  Arco arena is one of the that was built without a lot of foresight.
3.  Minnesota Timberwolves--A franchise that still regrets letting the franchise player leave town several years ago.  Without Kevin Garnett, this team has been nothing and the fans have responded.
4.  Indiana Pacers--Good sized city, nice arena, but a lack of talent have driven the fans away.
5.  Los Angeles Clippers--They need to stop being the Beaver to the LA Lakers Wally.

Cities most likely to gain an NBA franchise

1. Las Vegas, Nevada--The NBA played the All-Star game there a few years ago.  So far the only non-NBA city to host the game.  Could signal something.
2. Vancouver, British Columbia--A former NBA city that has the tools in place for a second chance.
3. San Diego, California--The Clippers used to be here and play in an arena best described as an empty drum.  The Aztecs have shown that basketball can succeed here.
4. Kansas City, Missouri--The old box arena that was an architectural flop is gone and a new arena awaits a tenant.
5. Austin, Texas--Austin is possibly the next American City to break into Major League sports.  Like many other successful sports cities (Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, Portland, Indianapolis), the NBA is a good place to begin.

Major League Baseball
Baseball used to be Americas pastime, but fans have stayed away from Major League venues.  Baseball is the easiest ticket in America right now.  Only three franchises, the Phillies, Red Sox and Twins had tickets that were hard to come by in 2010.  Where there were 4 franchises that had more empty seats than fans in 2010.  (Blue Jays, A's, Indians and Orioles).  Not good.

1.  Toronto Blue Jays--Their attendance averaged 39% of capacity at the Rogers Centre in 2010.  Winning will bring back the fans, but attracting free agent talent to an empty stadium is another problem.  It's a catch-22 that no one can figure a way out of.
2.  Oakland Athletics--I mentioned already that both the Raiders and the A's are suffering because of the mistake made by the City of Oakland in renovating the Coliseum.  It could cost them both franchises.
3.  Tampa Bay Rays--Good team, good baseball town poor venue.  Fans are staying home.
4.  Detroit Tigers--Detroit is suffering and the Tigers are the team that may have to move out of this shrinking city.
5.  Washington Nationals--This team needed to be moved out of Montreal, but Washington was a bad place to put them.  Those who said that Washington was too close to Baltimore to succeed and that both teams would suffer was right.

Cities most likely to gain an MLB Franchise

1. Orlando, Florida--With a good stadium, the Rays could move up the freeway.
2. Charlotte, North Carolina--Have been the model farm city for years.  This is a AAA city that deserves a Major League promotion.
3. Nashville, Tennessee--Where hockey is not doing so well...the Country Music Capital...baseball could succeed.
4. San Antonio, Texas--The Alamodome can not be configured for Baseball, but this city is still ready and has lots of room for a baseball stadium.
5. Salt Lake City, Utah/Sacramento, California--A nice minor league park that is easily expandable to major league proportions...either city.