New official word:
According to the Salt Lake Tribune, Hawaii will be invited to join the Mountain West Conference as a football-only member this week. It is unclear where Hawaii's other sports will affiliate, but signs are it will be the Big West Conference. Utah State appears to be getting an invite if the MWC can get a 12th member, and that appears likely to be UTEP and not Tulsa as this blog previously reported.
Again, the next domino that appears to be falling after this will be where the C-USA goes to replace UTEP, if that is what happens with the MWC. It could be Louisiana Tech, but it could also be a school from the Sun Belt Conference, like Middle Tennessee State or North Texas. That seems to be the trio that C-USA is interested in at this point--based upon Twitter traffic. If it is Louisiana Tech, then the WAC will be left with Idaho, New Mexico State, Texas State, UTSA and San Jose State in football. Can that quintet hold the WAC together long enough to bring in four schools from the FBS or will the WAC fold at this point?
One final straw that could break this camel's back. The scheduling agreement with BYU. Going to Provo and taking advantage of BYU's ESPN agreement could be an economic boon that will keep the WAC going as a conference. (USU and Hawaii have independent agreements with BYU.) What if BYU joins the Big 12 in 2012? Who do they partner with? Boise State or Louisville. Where would the MWC and Big East go for replacements? Probably not the MAC. Likely C-USA. What about further expansion by the Big 12 to 14?
The MWC will decide by the end of the year if it wants to remain at 10 or expand to 12. Aggie fans may get an Christmas present, in that their strong basketball program may save them from another conference affiliation Hell.
IMHO--The WAC and Karl Benson played this conference expansion game all wrong. He was not thinking about survival, he was thinking about getting bigger and better when those options were not realistic. Why the "BYU-Project"? Why only consider Montana and not some of their Big Sky rivals and forget about markets like Portland, Sacramento, California's Central Coast and the state of Arizona? Why go for Cal-Davis and not consider Sacramento State, when the later is the one with the FBS-ready facilities? Why not keep a footprint in Utah? It's not too late, if what is left of the WAC will think out of the box and become pro-active. It will be at least a decade before the WAC becomes again what it is today, but that is better than the alternative.
The Big Sky conference went to 13 members, even though there are no conference championships at the FCS level...at least not now. It was a proactive move. They anticipate schools jumping to the FBS in the next decade. It's time for the WAC to get proactive before there is no WAC left.
What I would do if I were Karl Benson?
1. Invite 3 basketball only schools--Seattle, CS-Bakersfield and Utah Valley.
2. Invite 4 Big Sky Schools, but on a time-line. Get them into the WAC by 2015 and forget about 2012-14. My choice would be 4 that already have the facilities or close to the facilities that they need and are close to the number of sports to make the move. Cal Poly has to be the first choice, but they have to expand their football stadium. Cal Poly already has 20 sports and are in the middle of a golden un-tapped market. They are the only DI sports program on the Central Coast. Then Montana, Montana State and Weber State. Northern Arizona, Portland State and Sacramento State would be alternates if either of the first set of schools balk.
3. Keep the BYU scheduling agreement as long as the Cougars are independent in football.
4. After Cal-Poly expands their stadium, begin a new bowl game there. Consider a new bowl in San Marcos, TX for that matter. Get back on the map.
5. Exposure, exposure, exposure. Get on TV. Get every advantage for recruiting you can get.
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