What the MWC may look like without BYU and Utah.

MWC priority: Keep TCU

Let me say right away that the Mountain West Conference can thrive just fine without BYU and Utah.  The key component to keeping the MWC as we know it alive is keeping TCU.  The worst case scenario for PAC-10 expansion is Utah/Colorado and not Utah/BYU.  The reason is the Big 12 may select TCU as a replacement for the Buffs.  So, if the PAC-10 expands, the MWC needs to move to protect TCU and keep the Frogs in the conference.

About the Big-12:  BYU, at least geographically, is a better replacement for either Colorado or Missouri than TCU.  Sure, TCU is in Dallas, but how would your balance the divisions with five teams in Texas?  It would not be possible to keep Oklahoma and Texas in the same division.  The Big 12 would have to schedule the same way that the SEC does, where each team has an opponent from the other division that they play every season.  Then you play the other five teams four times every ten years.  It's not as easy as it sounds.

With the loss of BYU and Utah, the MWC can also go to twelve teams, and add five teams as a replacement.  Those schools would be: Houston, SMU, Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada.  How would you split the divisions?  How about Houston, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada, TCU and SMU in one division.  That would leave Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Wyoming in the other.  It would still be a strong conference and would still have access to three large markets for recruiting.  In fact, such a conference would still be a threat to replace the Big East in the BCS as it would still have TCU and Boise State.

Domino Effect:

The cascading re-alignment would still be a major threat to the Sun Belt and Big Sky conferences as the WAC and C-USA raid those conferences for replacements, but at least the MWC would still be what it has become this last decade.

The WAC is under a larger threat, in my opinion, as they could also loose LaTech to C-USA.  In fact, LaTech and Middle Tennessee would be the likely replacements for Houston and SMU.  And the WAC probably would raid the Big Sky Conference, in part, to rebuild.  Possible WAC replacements would be Montana, Montana State, Portland State and Cal Poly.