Sunday, February 28, 2010

Big Sky Conference Men's Tournament Preview.

Round 1:

#6 Portland State at #3 Montana State

-The Bobcats are on a high after beating their arch rivals on the road in Missoula to secure the higher seed.  Meanwhile, the Vikings almost fell out of the tournament, but got in based upon a two game sweep of Idaho State and Weber State at home.  Portland State has some other things going for them, like being the only team in the Big Sky with a victory over a ranked team.  If the Vikings can hold the Bobcats scoreless for five minutes, just as they did to Weber State last Sunday, they have a good chance of advancing past Bozeman.

BTW--Portland State has not finished their regular season.  They are the last Big sky team to take on the Seattle Redhawks.

#5 Northern Arizona at #4 Montana

The Lumberjacks also have to be feeling a little sigh of relief just to get into the tournament as well.  They also had to fight off  losing streak just as Idaho State and Eastern Washington appeared to have turned their seasons around.  Montana has played well the season, at times, but have fallen victim to their own inconsistency.  Montana has enough impressive wins for an NIT bid, but also has some cheap losses as well.  The Grizzlies need to count on taking care of business in the conference tournament to win a post-season bid.

Waiting in the wings.

#2 Northern Colorado has the most impressive resume of all the Big Sky teams.  They have a 3-1 record against the Mountain West Conference, and a near miss against Oklahoma.  But they have four losses in Conference play.  But three of those losses are games that they should have won.  Losses are to Montana State in Bozeman, Montana at home and at Portland State.  But they should have enough to impress the NIT comittee should they not win the tournament.  In Ogden, they will get the higher seeded of the remaining teams.

#1 Weber State has been in this position before.  But they will need to take care of business at home to get to the post season this year.  Their most impressive non-conference win was against Utah, who has been hovering around .500 all season.  Getting off to a 1-5 start did not help their chances either.  An early exit, like last year, will likely be the end of the season this year.   They get the lower seeded of the first round survivors.

My all-conference team.

First Team
PG--Damien Lillard-Weber State
SG--Will Figures-Northern Colorado
SF--Bobby Howard-Montana State
PF--Jamie Jones-Portland State
C--Steve Panos-Weber State

Second Team
PG--Anthony Johnson-Montana
SG--Cameron Jones-Northern Arizona
SF--Franklin Session-Weber State
PF--Shane Johannsen-Northern Arizona
C--Brian Qvale, Montana

MVP--Lillard
Newcomer, Jr College--Session
Newcomer, Freshman--Branden Johnson, Montana State
6th Man--Nick Hansen, Weber State
Coach--Tad Boyle, Northern Colorado



Friday, February 26, 2010

Big Sky Last Week.

My apologies for not making my self-imposed Wednesday deadline.  Just a lot going on and I have been ill on top of that.  Here is what is left in the Saturday/Sunday games.

1.  Weber State has won the conference title out right.  They are now playing Sunday against Portland State who has clinched the sixth and final spot in the conference tournament.

2.  Northern Colorado has one game left and a one game lead over Montana.  The Bears can fall to a tie for second should they loose to Sacramento State on Saturday.

3.  Montana has their hated rivals on Saturday and with some help from the Hornets on Saturday, they can get a first round bye.

4.  Montana State can catch Montana with a win, but there really is, in this conference, no difference between third and fourth.

5.  Northern  Arizona has finished their season and know that they will be likely make a trip to Montana next weekend.  Questions is whether is will be Missoula or Bozeman.

6.  Portland State has clinched the sixth and final spot in the conference tournament.  Do not call Sunday's conference finale a throw away game for either team.

Idaho State, Eastern Washington and Sacramento State will all be playing their final game of the season this weekend.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Mid-weekend Big Sky Update

I will be in attendance at the Dee Events Center tonight.  We try to sit in the Student Section right in front of the concierge desk.  I have been fighting laryngitis all week, so I suspect that if this is a close game, I will not have a voice left by halftime.  What is at stake? 


1.  Weber State will clinch at least a tie for the conference title if they win.  They own the tie breaker against Northern Colorado.  Idaho State could sneak into the conference tournament.  They could be tied for 6th if they win and PSU loses.

2.  NCU likely has an NIT bid in their back pocket but can not afford to loose games they should win.  Portland State at home is a game they should win.  The Vikings need a win to bust their losing streak and ensure they make the BSC tournament.

3.  Montana can end Sacramento State's season a week early with a win in Missoula.

4.  Montana State has a chance to earn some Big Sky respect against San Jose State in Bozeman.

5.  Northern Arizona can clinch the BSC tourney with a win.  Eastern Washington needs a win to keep their slim hopes alive.

Weber State, Northern Colorado, Montana and Montana State have already clinched a spot in the tournament.

Tourney Schedule:
March 6:  #6 (Portland State?) at #3 (Montana?) and #5 (Northern Arizona?) at #4 (Montana State?)
March 9:  #2 (Northern Colorado?) against higher remaining seed from 1st round.  Lower remaining seed from 1st round at #1 (Weber State?)

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Big Sky Power Rankings 2.17.2010

Finally, some separation.  One word of advice for the field...consistency.  That is what has provided this level of separation. 

1.  Weber State.  The 'Cats have a two game lead with three left.  Thanks to Steve Panos who came through in the clutch when the Bears had Lillard figured out.  If they take care of business at home on Saturday night against the Bengals, they can wrap up the title with a split on the Northwest tip at the end of the season. 

2.  Northern Colorado.  A run at the end of the game got them within a point, but not close enough to pull into a tie in the standings with Weber State.  As a consolation prize, however, they probably have an NIT bid in their back pocket if they do not win the conference tournament.  Their resume is impressive enough.  If nothing else, win out and hope Weber State trips...twice.

3.  Montana.  You can never count anyone out, and you have to play consistent.  The loss to Eastern Washington cost the Grizzlies any hope of a share of the conference championship.  It was also the type of bad loss that you do not want if you are trying to impress the NIT or CBI selection committees.

4.  Montana State.  The Bobcats also bit the dust in Cheney this last weekend. They will need to win the BSC tournament and get the automatic bid to the big dance to play deep into March.

5.  Portland State.  The Vikings sneak ahead of NAU because they are on a shorter losing streak than the Lumberjacks.  The Vikings and the Lumberjacks get to settle the score in Flagsaff this weekend.

6.  Northern Arizona.  Nearly bowled a split on the road this week but dropped a heart breaker in Pocatello on Saturday.  The good news is home games this weekend.

7.  Idaho State.  The Bengals are real close to breaking into the tournament.  They are only one game out, but the next step in the uphill battle is a big one in Ogden.  Even a loss to their rival will not eliminate them this weekend.  The Bengals really could sneak into the tourney, after all.

8.  Eastern Washington.  Seems the Eagles know what time of year it is as well.  They swept the Montana teams at home this weekend.  They need to keep up this sense of urgency.  They have NAU and NCU on the road this week.  Drop them both, and they will be watching the tournament from home.

9.  Sacramento State.  Mathematically, the Hornets are still alive as well.  They were probably rooting hard for NAU in the OT game.  But they have to travel to Montana this weekend.  Could be eliminated this weekend as well.

Games this week:
Thursday:
Portland State at Northern Arizona
Sacramento State at Montana State
Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado

Saturday:
Idaho State at Weber State
Sacramento State at Montana
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona
San Jose State at Montana State
Portland State at Northern Colorado

Tuesday:
Johnson and Wales at Northern Colorado

Friday, February 12, 2010

What the MWC may look like without BYU and Utah.

MWC priority: Keep TCU

Let me say right away that the Mountain West Conference can thrive just fine without BYU and Utah.  The key component to keeping the MWC as we know it alive is keeping TCU.  The worst case scenario for PAC-10 expansion is Utah/Colorado and not Utah/BYU.  The reason is the Big 12 may select TCU as a replacement for the Buffs.  So, if the PAC-10 expands, the MWC needs to move to protect TCU and keep the Frogs in the conference.

About the Big-12:  BYU, at least geographically, is a better replacement for either Colorado or Missouri than TCU.  Sure, TCU is in Dallas, but how would your balance the divisions with five teams in Texas?  It would not be possible to keep Oklahoma and Texas in the same division.  The Big 12 would have to schedule the same way that the SEC does, where each team has an opponent from the other division that they play every season.  Then you play the other five teams four times every ten years.  It's not as easy as it sounds.

With the loss of BYU and Utah, the MWC can also go to twelve teams, and add five teams as a replacement.  Those schools would be: Houston, SMU, Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada.  How would you split the divisions?  How about Houston, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada, TCU and SMU in one division.  That would leave Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Wyoming in the other.  It would still be a strong conference and would still have access to three large markets for recruiting.  In fact, such a conference would still be a threat to replace the Big East in the BCS as it would still have TCU and Boise State.

Domino Effect:

The cascading re-alignment would still be a major threat to the Sun Belt and Big Sky conferences as the WAC and C-USA raid those conferences for replacements, but at least the MWC would still be what it has become this last decade.

The WAC is under a larger threat, in my opinion, as they could also loose LaTech to C-USA.  In fact, LaTech and Middle Tennessee would be the likely replacements for Houston and SMU.  And the WAC probably would raid the Big Sky Conference, in part, to rebuild.  Possible WAC replacements would be Montana, Montana State, Portland State and Cal Poly.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Big Sky Power Rankings 2.11.2010

Right now, the conference is now really a two team race.  Others are still in the hunt, but the teams north of the 45th parallel all need help to finish in first.

1.  Weber State--Went to Montana last week and did what they needed to do...and that was to earn a split.  Still in first place with their next three at home.  WSU can put some distance between them an NCU on Saturday night, provided that they first take care of the Lumberjacks.
2.  Northern Colorado--The Bears had a light week, just a cakewalk against Northern Arizona.  They will need all the rest they can get to get into a first place tie, with a tie breaker this weekend.
3.  Montana--The Grizzlies did all that they could do last weekend, and they are still two games behind the Wildcats.  But they did not get the help they needed from the Bobcats.  That's the trouble with playing catch-up, you need help.
4.  Montana State--The Bobcats could not quite take take the game that they needed last week.  Now they are four games back with only four left to play, so one more loss and we know that they championship tourney will not be in Bozeman.  But they can stay in position to host a first round game.
5.  Northern Arizona--This list of cities that will host the BSC tourney is now at four, and Flagstaff is not on the list any longer.  But the Lumberjacks need to remain focused and ensure that they at least play in the tournament, and perhaps get to host a first round game.
6.  Portland State--Mathematically, PSU is still in the conference race.  Realistically?  All they can do is play spoiler and they will spoil the season for someone before it is over.
7.  Eastern Washington--The Eagles are two games out of tourney position with six left.  They will likely survive the weekend with still a chance at the BSC tourney, even if they lose both.
8.  Sacramento State--The Hornets are stepping out of conference play for the weekend.  Just when they were figuring out how to beat teams not based out of Pocatello!
9.  Idaho State--The Bengals are now again on a losing streak.  With five left to play, they are two games out of tourney position.  They could be officially eliminated by the time Cupid is due to make his rounds if they loose both.

Games this week:

Friday:
Northern Arizona at Weber State
Northern Colorado at Idaho State
Montana at Portland State
Montana State at Eastern Washington

Saturday:
Northern Colorado at Weber State
Northern Arizona at Idaho State
Montana State at Portland State
Sacramento State at Seattle U.


Sunday:
Montana at Eastern Washington


Monday:
Cal-State Bakersfield at Montana State



Monday, February 8, 2010

Weber State's 2010 Recruiting Class.

Ron McBride had some holes to fill, and plugged almost all of them.  Here is how he did.

Need: Replace Trevyn Smith and Bo Bolen (who is now on a LDS mission). 
Filled with: Utah's 5-A MVP Tanner Hinds from Davis HS in Utah.  Tanner is only 5'10", which may be why Utah, Boise State and Colorado may have passed on him.  But give this kid an opening, and he will run all over the field.  And Bolen will be back when it is time for Hinds to go on a mission.  Also, WSU goes to Smith's alma-mater and signs Alema Key and also adds David Knowles at Nevada.  Enough talent to make folks in Ogden forget Smith.

Need: Replace Tim Toone at Wide Reciever.
Filled with: Shadon Kahano from Castle HS in Hawaii.  Has similar size and speed to Tim Toone.  We will see how well he can fill Toone's shoes.
Also, Erik Walker from Park City HS in Utah.  This kid has some wheels, and may be a replacement for Toone on Special Teams.

Need: Replace Mike Snoy at PK/P
Filled with: Josh Kealamakia from Syracuse HS in Utah.  Josh is considered to be the best graduating kicker in Utah this year.  He was all-state for two years running.  Has a career long FG of 51 yards and a career long punt of 70.

Need: Patch holes in the offensive line, replace Center Kyle Mucher.
Filled with: Alex Land from Santa Fe HS in Oklahoma.  One of the best in his home state.
Also, Shelton Robinson from Highland HS in Idaho.  Yes, that Shelton Robinson.  Another kid who could have ended up someplace in the FBS.
But the star is: Joel Turrubiates, from Bakersfield JC in California.  But he still has big shoes to fill in replacing all-American Kyle Mucher.

Defense, the 'Cats already have a lot of young talent on defense that did not see a ton of time in 2009. 

Defensive signers include: Malone Fiso, DE, Kahuka HS, Hawaii; Helam Heimuli, DE, Bountiful HS, Utah; Xavian Johnson, CB, Cheyenne HS, NV

One key to McBride's success at Weber State, where his predecessors, Greybeal and Arslanian failed was recruiting.  This is another good class for WSU.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Big Sky Power Rankings 2.4.2010

1.  Weber State. 14-7 (8-1) The Wildcats are now two games ahead of the rest of the pack and have seven left to play.  Three of those are at the Dee Events Center. The conference race could be much more interesting if WSU loses both games in Montana this weekend. The WebCats need at least a split to remain alone in first place.  With the completion of a Montana sweep and the next three at the purple palace, you may as well book your rooms in Ogden for the BSC tournament.

2.  Northern Colorado 18-5 (7-3) In such a tight conference race, no team can afford to lose games that they should win.  Friday night in Greeley was an example of such a game.  This is where Montana upset the Bears on their home court.  NCU needs not lose any more games that they should win if they wish to see the BSC tourney in Greeley this year.

3.  Montana 15-7 (6-4) It is hard to know which Treasure State school to put ahead of the other.  But I give the advantage to the Grizzlies this week.  They got the big win in Greeley, they beat the Bobcats in Bozeman and have a better post-season resume.  With a little help from their brother campus this weekend, they can close the gap in the conference race to one game.

4.  Montana State 11-10 (6-4) The Bobcats also have the opportunity to close the gap on Weber State this coming weekend.  The ancient field house should be rockin' this weekend.

5.  Northern Arizona 11-10 (6-4) The Lumberjacks are another team heading in the right direction of late.  They could have their say before the season is over.  That say begins in Greeley on Saturday.

6.  Portland State 9-12 (4-5) The Vikings are about as dangerous as the day of the week, the phase of the moon or whether or not Puxatauney Phil sees his shadow.  Well, if you can figure out when they will play a good game and how to motivate them, Tyler Geving is all ears.  That inconsistency makes them the most dangerous team down the stretch. 

7.  Eastern Washington 6-17 (2-7) Conference play has not been all that kind to the Eagles.  But the season is still far from over.  They only have two games to make up on the pack to get into the post-season tourney.

8.  Idaho State 6-15 (3-6) As tough as the season has been for the Bengals, it is not over for them either.  They only have one game to make up to get a shot a post-season play.  The rest of the season begins Friday in Bozeman.

9.  Sacramento State 8-15 (2-8) The Hornets, thanks to getting the split last weekend, are only three games out of tourney position with six remaining.  It is possible that they could be six games out with four remaining by the end of the weekend--or in other words, eliminated from the post season.  Therefore, the Hornets need to use all sting they have remaining this weekend when PSU and EWU visit.

Games this week:

Friday:
Idaho State at Montana State
Weber State at Montana
Portland State at Sacramento State

Saturday:
Weber State at Montana State
Idaho State at Montana

Sunday:
Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado
Eastern Washington at Sacramento State
Seattle U at Portland State