Every year, my son and I attempt to attend a home game for every Division 1 school in Utah. We made it to Provo on Friday and our next game will likely be in Logan.
We saw BYU's line get blown up on both sides of the football, yet come away with a win because they took care of the ball and Cincy did not. BYU won by 8, scoring 14 points on turnovers. The week before that, they gave up 21 points and lost by 11 at Kansas. That is the theme of the week.
Weber State won in Greeley against the former BYU Special Teams Coordinator Ed Lamb and the Northern Colorado Bears with a pick 6 in the final minutes.
In Corvallis, both Utah and Oregon State threw an INT. However, the Beavers capitalized on Utah's mistake, where the Utes did not.
Only the USU Aggies overcame their mistakes in getting the win in Connecticut.
Take care of the ball. Doing so usually results in wins. Not doing so usually results in losses.
Also of note: BYU's 4-1 feels different that Utah's 4-1
Projected Wins
BYU
Current Record: 4-1
Worst Case Scenario: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 9-3
Most Likely: 8-4
Projected Wins: Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Projected Losses: West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma
Toss Up: TCU, Texas Tech
Toughest Remaining game: At Texas
Trap game: Iowa State
Projected Bowl: Guaranteed Rate (Chase Field, Phoenix) vs. Purdue
Note: Take care of the football and they will pick up one or more of those unexpected wins.
Utah
Current Record: 4-1
Worst Case Scenario: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 11-1
Most Likely: 8-4
Projected Wins: California, Arizona State
Projected Losses: Washington, USC, Oregon
Toss Up: Arizona, Colorado
Toughest Remaining Game: At Washington
Trap Game: Arizona State
Projected Bowl: LA Bowl (SoFi Field, LA) vs. Air Force
Note: With Cam Rising back, Utah could win out.
Utah State
Current Record: 2-3
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Most Likely Scenario: 5-7
Projected Wins: Nevada, New Mexico
Projected Losses: Fresno State, San Jose State
Toss Up: Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State
Toughest Remaining Game: Fresno State
Trap Game: Colorado State
Projected Bowl: None
Note: The Aggies may not finish above .500 this year but the future looks good through 2026 provided Cooper Legas stays healthy, does not transfer and does not leave for the NFL early.
Weber State
Current Record: 3-2
Worst Case Scenario: 6-5
Best Case Scenario: 9-2
Most Like Scenario: 8-3
Projected Wins: Idaho State, Cal Poly, Northern Arizona
Projected Loss: Idaho
Toss Up: Eastern Washington
Notes: They are fortunate to have their bye week before playing at home against Idaho. I don't think they make the post season with the blowout loss to Montana State unless they win out.
Southern Utah
Current Record: 1-4
Worst Case Scenario: 3-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-5
Most Likely Scenario: 3-8
Projected Wins: Abilene Christian, Lincoln
Projected Losses: Stephen F. Austin
Toss Up: Tarleton State, Austin Peay, Utah Tech
Notes: SUU can still have a winning season if they shake off recent losses and be the team that played so well against Arizona State and BYU.
Utah Tech
Current Record: 1-4
Worst Case Scenario: 1-10
Best Case Scenario: 3-8
Most Likely Scenario: 2-9
Projected Wins: North Alabama
Projected Losses: Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian, Austin Peay
Toss Up: Eastern Kentucky, Southern Utah
Note: Rome wasn't built in a day. It will be a few years yet before UT is competitive. In the meantime, hit the transfer portal hard.
Controversial note on realignment. Weber State and Utah Valley, if the Wolverines add football, are better options for FBS football than Southern Utah and Utah Tech.
