California:
Strengths, academics, history and market size. There are nine schools that have won a National Championship in both football and basketball. (Princeton is another and they are now FCS, if that counts for anything.) It has been years since Cal has been feared in any sport.
In Basketball, the Bears won it all in 1959, but have only 19 Big Dance appearances. 1959 was also the last time Cal was in the Rose Bowl. Their first Rose Bowl, on New Years Day in 1920, capped an undefeated season and their first of 3 National Championships. Their potential fourth after the 1937 season is disputed, the NCAA officially recognized Pittsburgh as the National Champion that year. They were recognized as the national champion in 1920, 1921, 1922. Six times their bowl appearances were attendance records. The last time they set an attendance record was when Marshawn Lynch ran all over BYU in the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl. In Football they have been anything but terrible. Overall, they have 19 bowl appearances. California has the most impressive sports resume of the PAC-4 However, sports is not the top priority in Berkeley and never has been. It's always been about academics in Berkeley.
They still have hope at either an ACC or Big 10 invite. The ACC seems most likely. If that fails, the AAC or the MWC will likely invite them. If the ACC invites Cal only for football, the likely landing spot for the rest of their sports in the Big West Conference, where they would be a perfect fit.
Odds:
Big 10: 0%
ACC: 50% (Most Likely Destination)
Note: Also a possibility is ACC for football only, with the other sports in the Big West
Mountain West/American: 30%
Independent Football/Big West:15%
Drop Football/Big West: 5%
FCS: 0%
Men's NCAA appearances: 19
Deepest Run: NCAA Champion 1959
Bowl Games: 19
Bowl Record 15.14.1
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 2-5-1: Rose 1921-W, 1922-T, 1929-L, 1938-W, 1949-L, 1950-L, 1951-L, 1959-L
Best Football Season: 1920: 8-0, Conference Champion, Rose Bowl Champion, National Champion.
Best Basketball Season: 1959 15-4, NCAA Champion.
Stanford:
Strengths: Academics, market and tradition. Stanford won it all in 1942 where much of the competition was fighting a war. They made the final four in 1988. They have 17 tournament appearances. Their last being in 2014. They last played in the Rose Bowl in defeating Iowa. They have 30 total bowl game appearances. They haven't been bowling since 2018.
They are more likely than any other to remain in a Power-5 conference. Like Cal, they still hold hope for a Big 10 or ACC invite. Out of the PAC-4, they are most likely to succeed as an independent. I do not know if they will chose that route considering they only have one year to put together a schedule. They would be a strong competitor in the Mountain West. If the ACC invite is for football only, the most likely destination for their other sports is the West Coast Conference, as WCC is all private schools, like Stanford. The Big West is all public and all in California.
Big 10: <1%
ACC: 50% (Most Likely Destination)
Also a possibility is the ACC for Football Only with other sports in the WCC.
Mountain West/American:25%
Independent/WCC: 15%
Drop Football/WCC: 5%
FCS: 4%
Men's NCAA appearances: 17
Deepest Run: Final four 1988
Bowl Games: 30
Bowl Record 12-11-1
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 9-7-1: Rose 1902-L, Rose 1925-L, Rose 1927-T, Rose 1928-W, Rose 1935-L, Rose 1936-W, Rose 1941-W, Rose 1952-L, Rose 1971-W, Rose 1972-W, Rose 2000-L, Orange 2011-W, Fiesta 2012-L, Rose 2013-W, Rose 2014-L, Rose 2016-W
Best Football Season: 2010: 12-1, Orange Bowl Champion
Heisman Trophy Winner: Jim Plunket, QB, 1970
Oregon State:
Strengths: The only real strength is their proximity to Portland and the location in the Willamette Valley. They have been the little brother to Oregon for a long time. They had 19 NCAA appearances, but 3 have been vacated. But they made the Elite 8 in 2021 before bowing out to Houston. They were in the Final Four in 1963. They have appeared in 19 Bowl games, with their last Rose Bowl appearance in 1965. Last season was impressive, where they went 9-3 in the regular season before crushing Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl 30-3.
Because they don't have an impressive post-season history, they may have to settle for the Mountain West and prove themselves to Power-5 to get back. If they go independent, their other sports will likely park themselves in the Big Sky Conference or WAC. If the ACC invites OSU for football only, the likely landing spot for the other sports would be either the Big Sky Conference or the WAC.
Big 10/ACC/Big 12: 20%
Mountain West: 70% (Most Likely Destination)
Independent/Big Sky or WAC for non-football: 10%
Men's NCAA appearances: 19
Deepest Run: Final Four, 1963
Bowl Games: 19
Bowl Record 12-11-1
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 2-2: Rose 1942-W, Rose 1957-L, Rose 1965-L, Fiesta 2001-W
Best Football Season: 2000: 12-1, Conference Co-Champion, Fiesta Bowl Champion
Washington State
Out of the PAC-4, Washington state has the weakest resume, athletically. They don't have many real strengths. They don't have the academic prowess the other schools have. Men's basketball has appeared in the NCAA tournament six times. Their football resume is more impressive, last appearing in the Rose Bowl in 2003, losing to Oklahoma in the BCS semis. They have 18 bowl appearances, which is the fewest of the four. The bigger issue with Washington State is their market. Pullman is a city of about 35,000. The only economic driver in their community is the university. They are 75 miles from a city of any size (Spokane) and really can't claim they are part of any large metro, but they try to. Although their airport has direct flights. Which means that travel isn't all that difficult. They would be the smallest city in any conference they were to join, unless they drop down to the NAIA. Their alumni are everywhere, especially in the west and their fans are passionate. But that will not be enough to keep them in the Power 5 or even in the FBS. If the ACC extends an invite for football only, I can't imagine their other sports going anywhere but the Big Sky Conference. Idaho, Eastern Washington, Portland State and Montana are all relatively close.
Big 10/ACC/Big 12: <1%
Mountain West: 50% (Most Likely Destination)
Independence/Big Sky or WAC for non-football 25%
Big Sky for all sports: 24%
Men's NCAA appearances: 6
Deepest Run: Lost in the 1941 championship game
Bowl Games: 19
Bowl Record: 9-10
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 1-3: Rose W: 1916, L: 1931, L: 1998, L:2003
Best Football Season: 2003: 10-3, Rose Bowl (BCS Semi-Final) Loss.
In conclusion, it is not a slam dunk that all four schools will join the Mountain West. The concerns about Stanford and Cal joining the ACC are likely over travel. They have history and a large media market on their side. There are legitimate concerns about adding Washington State to any FBS conference, even the Mountain West. Oregon State to the Mountain West seems most likely to happen.
