PAC-12 Conference
Sports Illustrated currently lists the following 5 schools as targets of the PAC-12 Conference:
San Diego State
SMU
UNLV
Fresno State
Boise State
I found the order at which they are listed to be as telling as anything. This is the priority of the author of the article and may not reflect anything other than his desirability. But SI has contacts in the know and are likely close to those involved in the decision making process. I can think of maybe two others that might be on the list, like Colorado State and Nevada, but it likely doesn't go beyond these five schools.
Why is Boise State an afterthought after all they have achieved in recent years? Boise State is only on this list because of their recent success on the athletic field. They have a brand. But they do not bring a large market into the mix, and Boise is not a large market. Nor do they bring Class A facilities, a strong academic reputation, a large pool of wealthy booster nor access to a deep recruiting pool. It is also likely that the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl is one that is on the chopping block due to the rumored bowl restructuring in the wake of expanded college football playoffs. If it wasn't for BSU's recent success, they would not even be considered.
If I were PAC-12 commissioner, I would expand to the PAC-14 and take SDSU, SMU, UNLV and Fresno. It will not make up for the loss of LA area schools. Nothing short of a full merger with the MWC, or taking the top five programs can make up for the loss of a market of 18 million. (BTW-the other two would be Colorado State and Nevada.)
In hindsight, the PAC-12 should have taken BYU before the Big 12 did.
Mountain West Conference.
A year ago, before USC and UCLA left for the Big 10, I suggested that the MWC expand and grab UTSA before the American got 'em. Of course, my opinion doesn't count for much, but now the MWC is likely going to be poached, hope that the PAC-12 collapses or expand with FCS schools.
Well, here we are. If the PAC-12 collapses and the MWC can land Oregon State and Washington State, but for now they are going to have to invite at least one current FCS-Level school to replace the likely 3 that will get PAC-12 invites. That doesn't have to be a bad thing if the right programs are added. The MWC needs to consider four things in potential expansion candidates: Market, Student Body, Facilities and Academic reputation. Therefore, who I think belongs in MWC expansion talks is probably not who you think belongs.
UC Davis or Sacramento State. Sacramento is the second largest market in the West that does not currently have an FBS-level college football program (I will mention the first later). UC Davis has one of the best academic programs in the country. Sacramento State has recently upgraded their stadium. UC Davis plays in a relatively new stadium that can be cheapy expanded to 20,000. Both may need bigger basketball arenas, but that may be a secondary concern. Another concern is that Hawaii may not approve of adding a Big West School, but if they are the only objection, then UC Davis joins. UCD has an incredible academic reputation.
Texas El Paso. I'm certain that New Mexico would push hard to include UTEP, a former WAC rival, into the MWC. While it won't bring a Sun Bowl invite, it is still a program that has the facilities, the market, the alumni and the recruiting base to be a great program again.
North Texas. Dallas is a big place and football is big. The Mean Green are not always successful, but they give you a foothold in the Dallas area. Again, should have nabbed UTSA when you had the chance.
Other possibilities: Beyond these two, here are some secondary programs to consider if these decide not to join. But these programs are far from perfect.
Portland State. Portland is the largest metro in the west without an FBS program. Oregon State is the nearest, but they are 80 miles south. Their biggest problem is facilities. No, they no longer share a stadium with the Portland Timbers. They currently play in Hillsboro, about 20 miles away from campus. I would conditionally invite the Vikings provided that they can get a 15,000 to 20,000 seat stadium on or near campus.
Weber State. Ogden is the fifth largest metro in the west that does not have an FBS program. The problem is that there are two other FBS-level programs within an hour drive, and another right outside of this radius. Utah is continuing to grow in population. Eventually there will be the population to support a 4th FBS program on the Wasatch Front, but the market is not there yet. There are bigger metros that have fewer college programs and they struggle. (I will not mention a certain Bay Area university by name, but we know who you are.) Would Utah State object? If I were USU I would rather have Weber in the Mountain West than USU in the Big Sky. But it is likely not going to come to that. Houston is the only metro area that I can think of that has 4 FBS-level college football teams in Texas A&M, Houston, Rice and Sam Houston State.
Eastern Washington. Spokane has the sixth largest market in the west without FBS football. EWU is not the top dog in Spokane in sports played with a round ball, involving foot races and in the water, and that could be a problem. If Gonzaga still played football, EWU would be a division lower.
Cal Poly. There are lots of metros in the west smaller than Spokane and larger than SLO, but none of them have a college football program. Many of them are near SLO, however. Everything you need for a successful FBS program is near San Luis Obispo, but it is not right, right there and that is the problem. Programs that have the fans, alumni and recruiting base next door struggle to succeed. At least it is near the beach.
North Dakota State. Success at the FCS level does not equate to success at the FBS level. NDSU, if managed properly has what could make them a success in the MWC. But they are isolated and the market is not large. Smaller cities, like Lubbock, support successful FBS programs. It could work, but it would be a gamble.
Programs not on my list and why
Montana, Montana State, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa. These fall into my Idaho category, meaning that success at the FCS level does not necessarily translate to success at the FBS level. I would give NDSU a shot at the FBS level as Fargo/Morehead is a decent sized market, but considerably smaller than SLO, without the nearby beach. Idaho's failure was not their stadium. But that they are too isolated in too small of a city to succeed at the higher level.
