Conference Expansion January, 2023

 PAC-12 Conference

Sports Illustrated currently lists the following 5 schools as targets of the PAC-12 Conference:

San Diego State

SMU

UNLV

Fresno State

Boise State

I found the order at which they are listed to be as telling as anything.  This is the priority of the author of the article and may not reflect anything other than his desirability.  But SI has contacts in the know and are likely close to those involved in the decision making process.  I can think of maybe two others that might be on the list, like Colorado State and Nevada, but it likely doesn't go beyond these five schools.  

Why is Boise State an afterthought after all they have achieved in recent years? Boise State is only on this list because of their recent success on the athletic field.  They have a brand.  But they do not bring a large market into the mix, and Boise is not a large market.  Nor do they bring Class A facilities, a strong academic reputation, a large pool of wealthy booster nor access to a deep recruiting pool.  It is also likely that the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl is one that is on the chopping block due to the rumored bowl restructuring in the wake of expanded college football playoffs.  If it wasn't for BSU's recent success, they would not even be considered.

If I were PAC-12 commissioner, I would expand to the PAC-14 and take SDSU, SMU, UNLV and Fresno.  It will not make up for the loss of LA area schools.  Nothing short of a full merger with the MWC, or taking the top five programs can make up for the loss of a market of 18 million.  (BTW-the other two would be Colorado State and Nevada.)

In hindsight, the PAC-12 should have taken BYU before the Big 12 did.

Mountain West Conference.

A year ago, before USC and UCLA left for the Big 10, I suggested that the MWC expand and grab UTSA before the American got 'em.  Of course, my opinion doesn't count for much, but now the MWC is likely going to be poached, hope that the PAC-12 collapses or expand with FCS schools.  

Well, here we are.  If the PAC-12 collapses and the MWC can land Oregon State and Washington State,  but for now they are going to have to invite at least one current FCS-Level school to replace the likely 3 that will get PAC-12 invites.  That doesn't have to be a bad thing if the right programs are added.  The MWC needs to consider four things in potential expansion candidates: Market, Student Body, Facilities and Academic reputation.  Therefore, who I think belongs in MWC expansion talks is probably not who you think belongs.

UC Davis or Sacramento State.  Sacramento is the second largest market in the West that does not currently have an FBS-level college football program (I will mention the first later).  UC Davis has one of the best academic programs in the country.  Sacramento State has recently upgraded their stadium.  UC Davis plays in a relatively new stadium that can be cheapy expanded to 20,000.  Both may need bigger basketball arenas, but that may be a secondary concern.  Another concern is that Hawaii may not approve of adding a Big West School, but if they are the only objection, then UC Davis joins.  UCD has an incredible academic reputation.

Texas El Paso.  I'm certain that New Mexico would push hard to include UTEP, a former WAC rival, into the MWC.  While it won't bring a Sun Bowl invite, it is still a program that has the facilities, the market, the alumni and the recruiting base to be a great program again.

North Texas.  Dallas is a big place and football is big.  The Mean Green are not always successful, but they give you a foothold in the Dallas area.  Again, should have nabbed UTSA when you had the chance.

Other possibilities: Beyond these two, here are some secondary programs to consider if these decide not to join.  But these programs are far from perfect.

Portland State.  Portland is the largest metro in the west without an FBS program.  Oregon State is the nearest, but they are 80 miles south.  Their biggest problem is facilities.  No, they no longer share a stadium with the Portland Timbers.  They currently play in Hillsboro, about 20 miles away from campus.  I would conditionally invite the Vikings provided that they can get a 15,000 to 20,000 seat stadium on or near campus.

Weber State.  Ogden is the fifth largest metro in the west that does not have an FBS program.  The problem is that there are two other FBS-level programs within an hour drive, and another right outside of this radius.  Utah is continuing to grow in population.  Eventually there will be the population to support a 4th FBS program on the Wasatch Front, but the market is not there yet.  There are bigger metros that have fewer college programs and they struggle.  (I will not mention a certain Bay Area university by name, but we know who you are.)  Would Utah State object?  If I were USU I would rather have Weber in the Mountain West than USU in the Big Sky.  But it is likely not going to come to that.  Houston is the only metro area that I can think of that has 4 FBS-level college football teams in Texas A&M, Houston, Rice and Sam Houston State.

Eastern Washington.  Spokane has the sixth largest market in the west without FBS football.  EWU is not the top dog in Spokane in sports played with a round ball, involving foot races and in the water, and that could be a problem.  If Gonzaga still played football, EWU would be a division lower.

Cal Poly.  There are lots of metros in the west smaller than Spokane and larger than SLO, but none of them have a college football program.  Many of them are near SLO, however.  Everything you need for a successful FBS program is near San Luis Obispo, but it is not right, right there and that is the problem.  Programs that have the fans, alumni and recruiting base next door struggle to succeed.  At least it is near the beach.

North Dakota State.  Success at the FCS level does not equate to success at the FBS level.  NDSU, if managed properly has what could make them a success in the MWC.  But they are isolated and the market is not large.  Smaller cities, like Lubbock, support successful FBS programs.  It could work, but it would be a gamble.

Programs not on my list and why

Montana, Montana State, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa.  These fall into my Idaho category, meaning that success at the FCS level does not necessarily translate to success at the FBS level.  I would give NDSU a shot at the FBS level as Fargo/Morehead is a decent sized market, but considerably smaller than SLO, without the nearby beach.  Idaho's failure was not their stadium.  But that they are too isolated in too small of a city to succeed at the higher level.  

Major League Baseball in Salt Lake City? 2022 Edition

One of the most popular posts on this blog was the possibility of Major League Baseball in Utah.  It's time for a 2022 version.  

Much has happened in the past 3 years.  Well, that's an understatement.  I terms of the subject of this blog here is a chain of events.  First, The State Legislature decided to build a new, modern prison in the salt swamps west of the Salt Lake Airport.  Leaving 700 acres halfway between Salt Lake City and Provo open for a new development.  Bonus: the locality hasn't decided what to do with the site.  Second, a BYU alumnus named Ryan Smith stated a company called Qualtrics.  His company grew and grew and grew and grew.  Suddenly, Smith is the most wealthy Cougar ever.  He buys the Jazz from the Miller family...something I never saw coming.  He buys a stake in Real Salt Lake.  He is a sports fan who still has billions to burn.  He forms a group to bring Major League Baseball to Utah.  Finally, Arte Moreno decides to sell the Los Angeles Angels, a team which plays in the fourth oldest stadium in Baseball.  This stadium doesn't exactly hold the same nostalgia as the three ballparks that are older...Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and Dodger Stadium.  Suddenly, people are saying Salt Lake Angels.  A MLB may move there, but I doubt it will be the Angels.  More on that later.

Let me tell you a little about the site.  I-15 is to the East.  The Bangerter Highway is to the North.  The Front Runner, the high speed rail is to the west.  It is in, arguably, the wealthiest community in Utah.  The nearby freeway sees nearly 250,000 cars every morning.  It can easily handle baseball traffic.  Some of the largest tech companies in the world, like Adobe and Dell have centers within 5 miles.  I don't see any negative to moving a team to this site.  Baseball owners are probably drooling at the prospect.

Site plan reported by the Salt Lake Tribune made by the Point of the Mountain State Land Authority.  (Published May 24, 2021.  Accessed August 30, 2022.)
The stadium would likely be near the current I-15 access in a location designated for retail and entertainment.  The area I highlighted is about 20 acres.  This is an educated guess.

Location in Salt Lake County relative to Salt Lake City courtesy of Google Maps.

Another thing to keep in mind, in spite of relatively low salaries, the Utah Jazz and Real Salt Lake are perennial playoff contenders.  Sure, between the two of them, there is only one championship, but in terms of wins and losses, it is hard to find teams that have been consistently better.  Plus both teams have arguably the best home-court/field advantage in their respective leagues.  They also regularly sell out their venues.  With Utah adding 50,000 new residents every year, it's hard to imagine that baseball will be less successful.

Plus this is your outfield view

There are negatives.  Sunday play and alcohol sales will be issues.  Some players may not want to come to Utah because of negative stereotypes or even negative personal experience.  These are issues that the Jazz and Real Salt Lake deal with as well.  Many athletes who have played for these teams have chosen to remain here after their retirement.  Even those who finished their careers outside of Utah have come back.  

I would also argue that Salt Lake is likely, at best, the fourth best market for Baseball.  Based upon the 2020 Census, I would put Portland, Austin and San Antonio ahead of Salt Lake.  Portland could more than match the scenery.  But Salt Lake has spendthrift Smith and 700 prime acres.  I don't know if Portland, San Antonio and Austin can match that right now.

Does Anaheim deserve to lose this team?  They are 13th in the league in attendance.  This, in spite of a 52-71 record.  They are up from 16th last season.  But, before the pandemic, they were 5th.  They have historically been in the top ten.  The team and the stadium have seen better days.  The play of the team and the aging venue and the recent success of the Dodgers are likely factors for the drop in attendance.  Certainly, they still draw well in spite of the negatives.  But it is not trending in the right direction. I think the team needs a new stadium, there is enough room to build a brand new one in the parking lot.  If it were my team, I would keep them right there.  

If not the Angels, could it be the Athletics or Rays?  Possibly.  It remains to be seen.  Again, I prefer expansion.  The Athletics have been trying for decades to get a new stadium, while the current one is falling to pieces.  Not like they can't build a new on in the parking lot there.  But no one wants that.  The Rays?  I can't see why they can't get a deal done there, either.  The difference between Smith and the current owners of these clubs.  Smith will spend his own money.  They current owners aren't willing to.

If all this happened, what would become of the Salt Lake Bees, the current AAA West team in Utah?  Salt Lake City is eyeing the stadium district for redevelopment.  If unoccupied, it would likely revert to a community greenspace.  This would enhance the neighborhood and possibly spur some needed gentrification.  The current stadium is shared with the Utah Utes Baseball team.  However, the Utes could build a stadium on or near campus, and perhaps share a stadium with East High School.  The current Salt Lake Bees team would likely relocate.  My guess would be Fresno, a city whose AAA team folded after the 2020 minor league season didn't happen.  Boise, Spokane, Vancouver, BC, Vancouver, Washington and Tucson would be other possibilities.

I think baseball in Utah in the near future can happen.  I agree that the field is ripe for Utah Baseball.  Personally, I want MLB to put an expansion team in Utah.  I don't think the Angels should move.  There is no reason for it.  The Salt Lake Angels talk is premature.  Perhaps a team with owners who want their cities to foot the bill for a state of the art stadium will sell to Smith.  Hopefully, it will be expansion.

Adopt the Schiano Plan--It Would Solve 4 NFL Problems.

The Schiano Plan is simple for football.  If you have not heard of it, let me spell it out for you.  The most dangerous play in football is the kickoff.  It is as much as twice as likely to produce an injury as any other play.  This is why touchbacks were moved to the 25 yard line instead of the 20.  It incentivizes teams to get a touchback and provide a level of safety for players.  It has not worked out that way.

The Schiano plan was devized by former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano after seeing one of his players paralyzed on a kickoff.  It is simple.  Instead of a kickoff, the team will get the ball 4th down and 15 at their own 30 yard line.  The majority of the time, the team will chose to punt.  However, they can fake punt or they can trot their quarterback to the line of scrimmage.  The odds of converting a 4th and 15 on a fake punt or a designed offensive play are minimal, but it is better than an onside kick.  This will solve 4 problems in football.

First, it will reduce injuries.  As the kickoff is the most dangerous play in football, this will have an immediate positive impact on player safety.

Second, it will be more exciting because it will add drama to the play.  The percentage of kickoffs returned for touchdowns in low, less than one quarter of one percent. The percentage of punts returned for touchdowns is about one half on one percent.  Which means that a team is twice a likely to return a punt for a touchdown than they are a kickoff.  About 8% of onside kicks are successful.  Arguably, they are less successful if the opposing team is expecting them.  A fake punt is successful about 1% of the time, but is exciting to watch.  About 12% of 4th and 15 plays result in a conversion.

Third, it adds a level of fairness to sudden-death overtime.  If a team loses the coin toss in overtime, they have a chance to keep the ball anyway.  Image what that would have done for the 2022 Bills vs. Chiefs playoff game.  The Bills, instead of kicking off could have trotted Josh Allen out for a 4th and 15 play to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.  Perhaps teams will chose to kick when they win the coin toss more often.  

Forth, it takes away an aspect of Gridiron Football that seems unrelated to the rest of the game.

Playing Taps for the PAC-12...or Are We?

Just like that, the PAC-12 appears to be going the way of its predecessor, the PCC.  USC and UCLA are leaving for the Big 10.  It has also been reported that Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah have at least enquired about joining the Big 12.  That could leave California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington and Washington State scrambling.  However, Stanford and Oregon possibly also be Big 10 bound.

This is just speculation on my part...the PAC-12 appears to be done.  If you are Boise State, would you join a conference anchored by Washington, Washington State, Oregon and California.  Or would you prefer to remain in the MW?  If it is the prior, it will probably no longer be called the PAC-12, because the brand is now tarnished if not toxic.  Also remember there would only be one bowl game remaining in the PAC-12...the Whatever it is called bowl that plays at Levi's stadium.

The war to whittle down the Power 5 to 4 is now over.  The PAC-12 lost.  The PAC-12 sealed its fate when the decided NOT to raid the Big 12 for Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech in the wake of Oklahoma and Texas leaving for the SEC.  The Big 12 then shored up its forces by expanding.  Even after the Big 12 expanded, the PAC-12 could have shored up its forces by adding Boise State with 1 to 3 other MW schools, but they refused to see the writing on the wall.  They should not be surprised by today's announcements.

However, this is a worst-case scenario.  It is possible that only USC and UCLA will leave.  The PAC-12 will add Boise State with 1 to 3 or even 5 of their sister MW schools and things will normalize.  But the sharks smell blood in the water.

Better than Boise State

Many people believe that if the Big 12 remains at 14 members after Texas and Oklahoma leave.  Remember BYU enters the conference in 2023.  Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston enter in 2024.  Texas and Oklahoma leave in 2025.  For the 2024-25 academic year, the Big 12 will be at 14 members for one season, and reports are that they are considering two additional members to remain at 14 members.

Surely, Boise State is one of those schools being considered.  So are South Florida, Memphis and a few others.  South Florida, many believe, has the inside track as Florida is a mecca of college talent and South Florida would be a good travel partner for Central Florida 

These are things that Boise State can't match.  Boise, while one of the fastest growing to cities, is a long way for hitting the magical 1 million in population.  The Treasure Valley will reach that number in the 2030s.  Therefore, travel to and from Boise is not ideal for a Big 12 school.  One must remember that if Boise were to join the Big 12, they would be both the most west and the most north in the conference.  

The lower population would also not be a recruiting gain for the Big 12.

Finally, it takes about 5 and a half hours to drive from Provo to Boise, which is about 2 hours shorter than the drive from Houston to Lubbock.

Now, before Boise State fans begin throwing those rotten tomatoes at me, I am well aware of all the positives that Boise State brings, including their recent success in sports.  Including their success against BYU.  But even BSU fans will admit the points I made are the main arguments against Boise.  Like the Wasatch Front, Boise isn't close to anywhere else.  Population wise, its about where Salt Lake was in the 1950s.

5 Schools that are a more ideal Big 12 Travel Partner for BYU than Boise State would be.

5. Utah State

This is a far better travel partner for BYU.  The good before the bad.  USU is a top-tier research institution and brings academic excellence to the table.  They are a big rival of BYU.  They have had their moments in sports, especially in football.  The problem is that there is no airport in Logan with regional service.  It is two hours from Provo and nearly 90 minutes from Salt Lake City.  The shortest route can be treacherous in winter.

4. Colorado State

CSU is also a top research school.  Colorado is a recruiting hotbed.  CSU is closer to DIA than CU and Bolder.  The main negative is that the State of Colorado doesn't seem to care much for college sports these days.  Both CU and CSU are struggling.

3. UNLV

Sure, it's a five-hour drive from Provo to Las Vegas, but a short charter flight.  There are world-class facilities in Las Vegas.  UNLV is a good school, especially for tech.  But their performance on the field has been anything but world-class.  They are not exactly power-5 ready.  If their basketball team was still performing at a world-class level, you could justify the poor performance in football.  But those facilities...that might be enough.

2. Arizona State

One thing that Bob Bowlsby would love is to take a program or two from the PAC-12.  ASU is likely on the top of his list.  The Phoenix metro, the campus, everything.  Plus, ASU may to better if their recruiting base was a little farther east.  They only negative is appearing like a hyprocrit.

1. Utah

BYU and Utah belong in the same conference.  It's one of the best rivalries, not just in college football, but in all sports.  The PAC-12 may be more forgiving of taking Utah considering the rivalry factor.  Plus, USC and Oregon may send Bowlsby a thank-you card.

Honorable mentions: Air Force, Wyoming, Nevada, SMU

All this being said, Boise State appears to be the best realistic option for a BYU travel partner.