Southern Utah Parts Ways with Demario Warren

 After a 1-10 season is Cedar City, Demario Warren is now done at Southern Utah.  He had been the head coach in Cedar City for six seasons after Ed Lamb left to be the Assistant Head Coach at BYU.  Warren spent 14 years at SUU.

This is no surprise.  It was clear the program is heading in the wrong direction.  The Thunderbirds were 1-10 this year.  SUU is leaving the Big Sky Conference for the Western Athletic Conference next season and the new conference isn't much easier.  The WAC is also the home of the other school in the Southern part of Utah, namely the newly named Utah Tech, who will likely be the Thunderbird's new primary rival.

As far as who could replace Warren, there are some good options.  FCS programs in Utah do best when they get a coach who is already familiar with the state and the challenges of recruiting here and already has a relationship with the high school coaches.  This is what Weber State did by hiring Jay Hill who was an assistant at Utah.

In considering who might coach at Cedar City, a coordinator at a power-5 school like Utah is making north of 1 million.  Other assistants are likely making anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000.  The head coach at an FCS school likely makes around 250,000.  Ed Lamb, when he left Cedar City to be the assistant head coach at BYU, who is not yet a power-5 program, likely left a 200,000 salary behind for likely no more than 300,000--but this is my guess.  (BYU does not publicize their staff's salary.  They are a private institution and are not required to disclose it.)  Jay Hill at Weber State earns a reported 275,000 per year, about 90,000 is paid by sponsors.

An FCS program likely has a pool that includes the following coaches:

-Non-coordinator assistants from Power-5 schools.
-FBS coordinators and assistants
-Coordinators from other FCS schools
-Head coaches from Division II, Division III, NAIA and junior colleges
-Former head coaches from any level
-High school coaches

In naming names, keep in mind that I do not have any inside information and have no idea who the administration at Southern Utah has in mind.  This is simply my opinion.  Here are my options.

Frank Maile who was the interim coach at Utah State and now an assistant at Boise State.  I think he did a good job as the interim coach and a person who deserves a chance to be a head coach.  Frank Maile would likely leave Boise for Cedar City for even money.  According to sources in Boise, Maile's Salary is 260,000.

Colton Swan or Jim Harding who are assistants at Utah. Swan was once the defensive coordinator at Weber State.  Sharrieff  Shaw is the special teams coordinator, the same position Jay Hill had before he left Utah for Weber State.  Shaw may have to take a pay cut to go to Southern Utah.  Defense coordinator Morgan Scalley is likely still the head coach in waiting and is still being groomed to take over for Kyle Whittingham when he retires .  Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig would likely take a cut in pay to be the head coach in Cedar City.  Neither Scalley or Ludwig would consider coaching at the FCS level.

Fesi Sitake who is now the passing game coordinator at BYU.  Ilaisa Tuiaki, who is the defensive coordinator at BYU and SUU alum former SUU head guy Ed Lamb are probably names who people think will be considered.  Both would take a considerable pay cut to coach in Cedar City.  Sitake is probably the top Cougar assistant who would coach at SUU.  Other assistants who would probably take the head job in Cedar City are Tight Ends coach Steve Clark or linebackers coach Kevin Clune.

Matt Hammer, Grant Duff or Joe Dale from Weber State.  Hammer is the offensive coordinator while Duff and Dale are the co-defensive coordinators.

If I was SUU athletic director, Debbie Corum, this is who I would consider:

Frank Maile
Colton Swan
Jim Harding
Fesi Sitake
Steve Clark
Matt Hammer
Grant Duff
Joe Dale

Is Weber State Ready for FBS Football?

 As Conference USA struggles for survival, the WAC is proposing to bring schools from the FCS level to restore football at the FBS level.  Weber State may be one of those schools.

In terms of facilities and sports success, no one doubts that Weber State can compete at the FBS level.  The question is if Northern Utah has the population to support 2 FBS programs, with Utah State and Weber State.

In my research, I found it takes a population of 1 million to support an FBS program.  Even if you are in the shadow of a power-5 program, having a population of 1 million is usually enough to have the local recruiting base to support your program.  If we exclude Salt Lake County and Utah County, let's look at the projected growth from Utah State's and Weber State's area for the next 40 years, then the state of Utah as a whole.  Here is my source for Utah.  Here is my source for Idaho.

Utah State's area is Box Elder, Cache and Rich Counties in Utah with Bear Lake, Franklin and Oneida Counties in Idaho

The 2020 population for these counties is:

Box Elder--58,000
Cache--133,000
Rich--2,500
Bear Lake--6,300
Franklin--14,000
Oneida--4,500

Currently, the population in this area is 218,300.  You will notice that if you compare my source for Utah with the 2020 Census listed in Wikipedia that the population is Cache county is already much higher than originally projected in 2017.  This is not just a serious underestimate, but likely the effect of pandemic and people working at home who can live where they want.  (Why not Logan?)  But that is not quite 1 million.  Projects in the next 50 years show this area growing by over 120%.  That is mostly in 

Ogden's area is Davis, Weber and Morgan Counties.  The 2020 population for these areas are:

Davis: 363,000
Morgan: 12,000
Weber: 262,000

Currently, the population is 637,000.  It is projected to surpass 1 million after 2070.  However, again, given the date of my source, it may happen sooner.  There is plenty of room for growth in Weber County.  It's growth rate will be about half of the Utah State University area.  That is because there are people already there.

I have said that it takes about 1 million to make a successful FBS program, neither area has or will have 1,000,000 in the near future.  There are some unique things about the State of Utah to mention.  First, let's consider BYU's recruiting area.

BYU recruits mostly among members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, which has about 7 million members in the United States.  They do not exclusively recruit in their own back yard.  Nor does every Latter-day Saint community consider themselves primary BYU fans in the way that Roman Catholic communities would consider themselves Notre Dame fans. In Utah Valley, however, BYU has plenty of young men that they can't recruit because they don't have the room for them.  In fact, many in the PAC-12 have taken advantage of this. BYU has and uses a recruiting reach that the other schools in the state do not have.  Being a member of the Big 12 will give BYU access to a pool of recruits in Texas, with only a fraction of those who are members of the Church.

Utah County currently has a population of 659,000 and is expected to catch Salt Lake County by the 2050s.  Not quite a million there, but they will add 1 million in the future. 

Salt Lake County is the only county in Utah that has a population over 1 million.  Currently it is 1,183,000.  It is projected to reach 1.6 million by 2050.  As a member of the PAC 12, Utah has access to recruiting on the West Coast and in Arizona and in Colorado.  Other PAC 12 schools come to Utah to recruit.  Highly touted recruits in the Salt Lake area have ended up at Oregon, Stanford and USC.

Utah State has thrived, and Weber State has thrived at the FCS level on recruits in the state of Utah that BYU and Utah have passed over.  Utah's overall population is currently just above 3,000,000.  It is projected to hit 4,000,000 by the end of this decade.  The growth may slow after Utah hits 4,000,000 as by then the Wasatch Front may be full, building up instead of out.  Then the growth will go to the ring counties: Box Elder, Cache, Morgan, Summit, Wasatch, Sanpete, Juab and Tooele counties.  Utah may not hit 5,000,000 until the 2050s.  There will also be serious water, pollution and transportation issues to address before Utah hits 4,000,000 so that there will be a quality of life in the state by the time the population reaches 5,000,000.  Utah should do what it can to avoid being another California, but that discussion, in detail, does not belong here.

Certainly, in the 2030s Weber State should be able to succeed as a FBS level.  But if they make the move now, they may struggle for a few years to find that success.  But they likely would not transition until the middle of the decade.  That may be just enough time for the program to prepare.  Jay Hill is certainly the right man at the helm right now to accomplish that feat, if Weber State can hold on to him.  If Weber State moves to the FBS in 2024, I would expect a bowl game 6-7 years later, in 2031.  But that would be under normal circumstances.  If they end up being part of a conference with mostly transitioning programs, they would likely find success sooner rather than later.  In other words, lose four non-conference games but possibly win a conference championship.

If Weber State fans see WSU make the move, patience would be the key.  The years after Ron McBride retired were trying for WSU fans.  It certainly will not be THAT bad.  (Five consecutive 2-win seasons).

The knee-jerk reaction to a Weber State transition is that Utah does not have the population for another FBS school.  The real counter argument is that Utah does not have the population for another FBS school, yet.  But they will sooner rather than later.  Now may be Weber State's time to move.

Proposal to save Conference USA and bring the WAC back to FBS status

Ten FBS conferences and the latest conference realignment has hit a brick wall.  Conference USA is now down to three schools.  UTEP, Louisiana Tech and Florida International.  It seems the conference is lost unless a bunch of FCS schools wish to re-classify.

Conference USA is losing six schools to the American Athletic Conference, three schools to the Sun Belt Conference and two schools to the Mid America Conference, leaving them with only three.  Before the last two schools, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky announced they are leaving to the MAC, there were plans to build Conference USA back up by adding New Mexico State and Liberty, who are now independent, with UConn as a football-only member and adding Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State from the FCS.  The latest plans from the MAC have been a monkey-wrench in the pile.

The WAC has come up with a proposal to reclassify as FBS, bring schools who want to reclassify with them and restore 11 FBS conference.  There are schools that want to reclassify, and those have the resources to do it, but they are all over the country.  I do not know all of the schools, yet who will be involved or how it will yet work out.  There are schools in the West who have the market and the facilities to reclassify to the FBS, but they are no where near Jacksonville State, which is in Eastern Alabama.

The WAC proposal is simple.  Bring up enough schools from FCS to FBS to have 11 FBS conferences, but the Eastern ones will go to Conference USA presumably with Louisiana Tech, Liberty and UConn.  While the WAC rebuilds with UTEP and New Mexico State. Presumably Schools like Southern Utah and Dixie (soon to be Utah Tech) that are not ready to reclassify will join other FCS conference.  Southern Utah and Dixie, in particular would return to the Big Sky Conference.

In the west, other than Idaho, there are five schools, currently in the Big Sky Conference, that could reclassify and be part of the WAC.  They are UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland State, Eastern Washington and Weber State.  Montana could, but would have to do so without Montana State, which they wont.  You would still have Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, Southern Utah, Dixie State, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado in the Big Sky Conference.  The BSC could also add Alaska Anchorage if UAA wants to add Football and become a Division I school.

The New WAC Could then be UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Sacramento State, Portland State, Eastern Washington and Weber State.  New bowl games could be certified in Sacramento, Portland, and San Louis Obispo.

In addition to Sam Houston State, and Jacksonville State, Conference USA could add Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Georgia Southern, William and Mary, James Madison and Richmond.  New Bowls could be certified in Huntsville, Texas and Richmond.  

The schools I have suggested, may not be the ones that make the jump.  However, these schools have the market and facilities to make the jump and be successful at the FBS level.  They have all had some degree of success at the FCS level in recent years.

This would allow all existing FCS conferences to remain in tact without a lot of continued realignment, which is what is needed at this point.