Often, it pays to wait to post these. Word is that Air Force and Colorado State have said no to the American Athletic Conference. The AAC was attempting to get a foothold in the growing Front Range market by taking its second and third most popular college programs.
There are programs that would be happy to join the AAC to replace Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston. Those include Alabama Birmingham and others. There are programs that would consider this move a upward move. Moving from the MW to the AAC is a lateral move.
The Mountain West Conference is not without threat. However, some of the moves that others have suggested, like inviting Gonzaga, are pipe dreams. The MW offers nothing to strong basketball-only programs like Gonzaga and Creighton that they don't already have. The Mountain West Conference is not without threat. Most likely, Boise State may end up getting an invite to either the PAC-12 or Big 12. BYU needs a travel partner in their neighborhood. San Diego State is getting stronger. Air Force is strong in football, but not in other sports. The American could make a move to bring all three service academies together.
It would help the MW to look at programs that could enhance the conference now. Don't wait for Boise State to be invited elsewhere. Look to expanding to 14 now. However, the MW is like the NBA team picking in the middle of the draft. They will have to look for potential. The programs that they add may not be successful on the field or court today, but could be in the future if they make the right moves. In my opinion, don't look for the next BYU or the next Boise State when the next San Diego State is available.
By the next San Diego State, look at the following: 1. The University is in a relatively large city. 2. The City has a major league sports program. 3. There is not another FBS program in the city. There may be a Power-5 program nearby, but not in the same city.
Obviously, Texas San Antonio is the program I refer to. Beyond that, since the AAC raided the MW, the MW can return the favor and try to poach SMU. Beyond that, the best the MW can do is promote FCS programs such as UC Davis, Sacramento State or Portland State. But there are no real perfect solutions for the conference. No wonder there is talk about basketball-only expansion or perhaps killing the conference and starting over. But I should also note that such talk is coming from official sources.
Obviously the basketball talk revolves around Gonzaga. I don't know that the Mountain West Conference has anything to offer the Zags that they don't get from the West Coast Conference other than a collection of real college arenas. However, the main revenue source now-a-days is becoming online streaming. A half-full arena in Laramie isn't going to generate much more revenue than a streamed game from Malibu. Also to be considered, since BYU left the MW, every school is public. Gonzaga is a better fit with other religious schools than they are otherwise.
Now that I have mentioned it, let me get to the afore briefly mentioned Big Sky Conference and others. You may or may not be curious why I have not mentioned the other usual suspects like UTEP, New Mexico State or North Texas or FCS stalwarts like North Dakota State or Montana. First of all, as I said, if you have to gamble, which this is, you want to gamble with house money. It may be easier to get the next San Diego State on a gamble than the next Boise State. Missoula is a nice town and so is Fargo, but both are a long way from catching Boise. Fargo is half the size of Boise and Missoula about 1/5 the size.
Yes, market size matters, but not the number of TV viewers or computers. A group of five college needs a recruiting base. No matter where you are, the best football players are going to the Power-5 schools. There needs to be enough left over for you. If you are in Fargo, and the top high school star goes to Minnesota, you don't have a lot of locals left to choose from. Your recruiting options become fewer and father in between. The odds are better in San Antonio.
If you need an example, look at Utah State. The Aggies are good now. In fact, the State of Utah now has three very good football programs. A power-five and a soon-to-be power-five and a group of five program that no one really wants to play anymore. It didn't used to be that way. From the end of the second world war to the 1990s, only one program in Utah was good. Then Utah's population hit 2 million, Utah and BYU were good. When Utah's population hit 3 million, there was room for Utah State to be good too. There are enough high schools athletes in Utah to see the occasional loss to Oregon or Stanford and have enough to make BYU and Utah deep enough to compete at the power 5 level and see Utah State be a force in the MWC.
In San Antonio, there are enough kids for Texas, Texas A&M and Baylor and still give the Road Runners a decent team. That is what the MWC needs in its future. Even if they have to go to Sacramento to get it.
