Utah College Football after Week 3.

My observations about college football this week.

1.  Boise State lost a close one at Oklahoma State.  You could say that the Broncos are looking forward to conference play, or are they?  First up is unbeaten Utah State.  Then Nevada.  Back out of conference play to take on BYU. Then Fresno State and Wyoming and Air Force and San Diego State are on the schedule.  Don't let your guard down.

2. PAC-12 argued against expanding the playoffs.  Are they sure?  If Oregon does not run the table, the PAC-12 will likely be shut out of the playoffs again.  If Oregon does run the table, do you put a four loss team in the Rose Bowl against a likely one loss Penn State or Maryland?  What if BYU goes unbeaten?

3.  Speaking of the expanding playoffs, do you think it's the Rose Bowl Committee arguing against expanding the playoff?

4. The four teams joining the Big 12 in the future are a combined 10-2.  BYU and Cincy are unbeaten.  The ten teams of the Big 12 are 24-5, without Texas and Oklahoma, they are 19-4.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech and Kansas State are still unbeaten.  The six teams of the PAC-12 south are a combined 8-10.  The PAC-12 North is 10-8.  Only Oregon is unbeaten in the PAC-12.  If the power 5 are becoming the power 4, I'm not sure the Big 12 is the conference that should be left out.

5. The MW still has 3 unbeatens, In addition to Utah State; Wyoming and San Diego State have gone unbeaten.

6. So far, there have been 10 FCS wins over FBS opponents.  The Big Sky conference has 4 of those wins.  2 of them against the PAC-12.  UC Davis over Tulsa and Eastern Washington over UNLV were the others.  The MW has the same number of losses against the FCS as the PAC-12.  South Dakota State beat Colorado State, to round out the rest.

7.  The AAC is interested in 4 MW schools.  Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State.  The Aztecs are unbeaten.  The other schools are a combined 4-5.  Perhaps the AAC should talk to Utah State and Wyoming instead.

Utah Schools...

Utah Utes

The Utes came out of their post-BYU funk with about 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter against San Diego State.  That was about 43 minutes too late.  This was a game with Kyle's crew should not have lost.  But they did.  Sometimes, it is better to learn lessons this way.  You can't focus on a bad loss for very long.  Don't want to be Washington State this next week...or maybe you do. The funk, however, is not unique to the Utes.  The entire PAC-12 outside of Oregon is struggling.

Current record

1 Win 2 Losses

Projected Record

7 Wins and 5 losses (Losses to Arizona State, UCLA, Stanford and Oregon)

Projected Bowl...Los Angles and a possible SDSU rematch.

PAC-12 Power Rankings:

Oregon
Stanford
USC
Oregon State
UCLA
Arizona State
Utah
California
Washington
Colorado
Washington State
Arizona

BYU Cougars

Arizona State beat themselves?  No, both teams were making mistakes, until the 4th quarter.  I though that there was only one big error in the 4th quarter by BYU.  3rd and long, the play call set up a sack of Jaren Hall.  But it worked out for the better.  The ensuing punt put the Sun Devils deep in Cougar territory...in front of the ROC (BYU Student Section).  The noise forced a uncomfortable number of ASU false starts.  This caused the Sun Devils to burn precious clock and get no where on offense.  By the way, the forced fumble after the Hall interception earlier is the play of the year so far for the Cougars.

I don't see the Cougars going unbeaten, BTW.  But double-digit wins in the regular season is within reach.

Current Record

3 Wins 0 Losses

Projected Record

10 Wins 2 Losses (Baylor and Virginia)

Projected Bowl...Independence Bowl vs. UAB

Note: To get a NY-6 Bowl, BYU will need to move ahead of either Notre Dame, Iowa, Iowa State, or Texas A&M in the playoff standings.  I would love see BYU vs. Cincy in the Fiesta Bowl.  If BYU were in the Big 12 this year, I don't see them getting more than 7 wins.  The Big 12 is that good.

FBS Indy Power Rankings

Notre Dame
BYU
Army
Liberty
UConn 
New Mexico State
UMass

Utah State Aggies

Utah State won a track meet against Air Force.  It looks to me, however, as if the Falcons ran out of gas first.  The question is whose defense was exposed.  Even though the unbeaten Aggies play a team with two losses at home next week, they will still be the underdogs.  BSU has taken a page from BYU and is playing an aggressive non-conference schedule.  Not many would play Central Florida, Oklahoma State and BYU as non-conference opponents (with two of those on the road).  I don't think a division championship this year is unrealistic for the Aggies.  

Current Record

3 Wins 0 Losses

Projected Record

11 Wins 2 Losses (BYU and San Diego State in MW Championship)

MW Power Rankings

San Diego State
Fresno State
Utah State
Wyoming
Nevada
Air Force
San Jose State
Boise State
New Mexico
Colorado State
Hawaii
UNLV

Weber State Wildcats 

Current Record

1 Win 2 Losses

Projected Record

9 Wins 3 Losses (Eastern Washington)

Weber State has to run the table to make the post season.  But should get credit for their aggressive non-conference scheduling.

Southern Utah

1 Win 2 Losses

Projected Record

4 Wins 7 Losses (Additional wins: Portland State, Northern Colorado and Idaho)

The Tbirds get their first win against future WAC foe Tarleton State.

Big Sky Power Rankings

UC Davis
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana State
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
Idaho
Portland State
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado

Note: SUU would have a better outlook if they were already in the WAC.  There, a winning record would be realistic.  The Big Sky is the Big 10 of the FCS.  It is that tough a conference.

Dixie State

Current Record 

0 Wins 3 Losses

Projected Record 

2 Wins 9 Losses (Wins against Tarleton State and Fort Lewis)

The Trailblazers gave up 60 to the UC Davis Aggies.  This is a benchmark season for DSU.  When they are winning the WAC and going to the FCS playoffs, people will remember how bad they were in 2021.

WAC Power Rankings

Sam Houston
Stephen F. Austin
Abilene Christian
Lamar
Dixie State
Tarleton State

Predictions for Utah's Football Teams the Rest of the Season, after week 2.

Maybe it's a good thing that I waited until after week 2 to start this in 2021.  Just like Utah losing to BYU may also be a blessing in disguise.

Utah is more talented than BYU, but not that much.  Probably about a field goal in Provo and not a touchdown.  BYU took it too them.  Utah was not prepared or was looking past the Cougars.  They will not make the same mistake again, at least not this season.  They have most of their toughest opponents at home this year.  

Utah, currently 1-1.
Prediction 9-4

Win vs Weber State
Loss @ BYU

Probable Wins
@San Diego State
vs. Washington State
@USC
vs. Arizona State
@Oregon State
vs. UCLA
@Arizona
vs. Colorado

Losses
vs. Oregon
@ Stanford
vs. Oregon in PAC-12 Championship game

Comment: Utah will right the ship.  But Oregon may be too good this year.  UCLA, Stanford and Arizona State are even matches for the Utes.  The advantage is given to the home team.

BYU, currently 2-0
Prediction: 10-2

Win vs. Arizona
Win vs. Utah

Probable Wins
vs. South Florida
@Utah State
vs. Boise State
@Washington State
vs. Virginia
vs. Idaho State
@Georgia Southern
@USC

Probable Losses
vs. Arizona State
@ Baylor

Note: BYU is better than most think they are this year.  But if they were in the Big 12 this season, likely be looking at a 6-6 finish.  They will need to be better. Sagarin would have the Cougars at 8-4 even after beating Utah.  BYU and Boise State and Baylor are very evenly matched.  I have given the edge to the home team in these games.  If BYU beats ASU, who should be ready for them, they have a good shot at running the table.

Utah State, Currently 2-0
Prediction: 8-4

Win @ Washington State
Win vs. North Dakota

Probable wins
@ UNLV
vs. Colorado State
vs. Hawaii
@ New Mexico State
vs. Wyoming
@ New Mexico

Probable Losses
@ Air Force
vs. Boise State
vs. BYU
@ San Jose State

Note: We don't know how good the Aggies are this year.  We may not find out.  They have their toughest three-game stretch coming.  If they win those 3 games, it is unlikely that they will jump ahead of Cincinnati in the CFB playoff polls.  San Jose State and USU are very evenly matched and I have to give the advantage to the Spartans who are the home team.

Weber State, Currently 1-1
Prediction:  8-3

Loss @ Utah
Win @ Dixie State

Probable Wins:

vs. UC Davis
@ Cal Poly
vs. Montana State
@ Idaho State
vs. Portland State
@ Southern Utah
vs. Northern Colorado

Probable Losses:

vs. James Madison
@ Eastern Washington

Note: Weber State does not play Montana this year.  That may end up costing them a post-season bid.  The game at Eastern Washington is key for both teams.  UC Davis and Eastern Washington are evenly matched with Weber State.  I gave the advantage to the home team.

Southern Utah, Currently 0-2
Prediction: 3-8

Loss @ San Jose State
Loss @ Arizona State

Probable Wins

vs. Tarleton State
vs. Portland State
vs. Northern Colorado

Probable Losses

@ Eastern Washington
@ Sacramento State
@ Northern Arizona
@ Montana
@ Idaho
vs. Weber State

Note: Hopefully SUU is better than they have looked against FBS opponents.  Usually, the FCS is.  That is not the only place where the schedule will bite them in the behind this year.  They are very evenly matched with Portland State, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, Northern Arizona and Idaho.  Advantage goes to the home team.  This could end up being Demario Warren's last year in Cedar City if he does not do better.  Too bad Ed Lamb will soon be making Big 12 Assistant Coach money and the T-Birds will not be able to afford him.

Dixie State, Currently 0-2
Prediction: 2-9

Loss vs. Sacramento State
Loss vs. Weber State

Probable Wins

vs. Tarleton State
vs. Fort Lewis

Probable Losses

@ UC Davis
@ South Dakota State
@ Montana
vs. Stephen F. Austin
@ Delaware
@ Sam Houston
vs. Missouri State

Comments: Transitioning from Division II without a conference is a b****.  Dixie only has 3 games against future WAC opponents.  I think they will improve and will be a force when the WAC goes back to football.

Where does the AAC go from here? (Or what I would do.) Updated

Mike Aresco crushed some sour grapes when discussing the loss of Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12.  What did the guy expect?  He shares a footprint with the Big 12.  This is something he should have seen coming.  It wasn't exactly like the iceberg heading for the Titanic.  Perhaps he, like a lot of people, assumed that one of the teams would be Boise State and that the Big 12 would only take 2 to replace the two that were lost.

Although things happened fast, consider this.  Do a Google search for the best non-power 5 football programs.  In addition to BYU and Boise State, you would likely also find Central Florida and Cincinnati on that list.  Houston, well its the largest market not currently in the Power 5.  And no, College Station is not THAT close enough to Houston.  It's about 90 minutes by car depending on traffic.  

Also consider that the Big 12 looked into expansion in 2016.  Chances are the Big 12 already knew who they were going to get soon after the PAC-12 decided not to poach their conference.

So what do you do in response?  Poach the Mountain West.  If they do, you would likely end up with a war on your hands.  There are some cool things that AAC could do.  However, they do not make enough money to make a 3 or 4 time-zone conference work.  They can't afford a bidding war with the MW.  While I am thinking about it, perhaps an agreement with the MWC not to poach each other for 5 years.  If the AAC goes after Boise State, Colorado State or someone else, the MWC is going to go after Tulsa and SMU in retaliation.

There are not a ton of options.  I would say, follow the example of the Big 12.  Here are the three schools I would add.

1. Add the best football program neither in the Power 5 or the MWC.  That can only mean one program.  The Thundering Herd of Marshall.

Usually, they have a good program in Football.  They are .518 all time and have a 12-5 record in bowl games.  They have a 38,000 seat stadium.  Outside of football, the men's soccer program is the reigning national champion.

Alternative: Southern Mississippi

2 &3. Add the largest sports market in the footprint, not in the AAC or power 5.  That market is deep in the heart of Texas.  It does not quite make up for the loss of Houston, but helps the conference keep a large footprint in the state.  It will help with recruiting, as well.  At the University of Texas San Antonio Road Runners.

UTSA does not have the history of Marshall, or a Houston.  Also remember that the history of the University of Houston is not all roses and sugar cubes.  UTSA does not have that.  They have 2.5 million people.  A little success, and the Alamodome will be filled to capacity every Saturday.  This is the definition of drafting potential.

Another school in a large market that has a loner is Old Dominion.  The Virgina Beach area is one of the fastest growing in the country.  It is considered a good site for one of the major sports leagues for expansion.  It is a good expansion site for the American.

Many people are also stating that Alabama Birmingham should be one of the teams.  Since the Blazers brought back football, they have been doing very well.  However, the AAC could add all three, UTSA, Old Dominion and UAB.  It would raise their market profile, but not the football profile.  They have to leave one of them out.

Alternative: Rice, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

4. Now that I've upset all 50 fans of Conference USA, let me suggest a Sun Belt Conference member for the last addition.  No, it's not Boise State, but its who many think may be the next Boise State.  They certainly looked like it the past two years. The Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina.  

The Myrtle Beach/Conway area is about the size of Boise, perhaps a little smaller, but it is growing faster.  If you like Boise State, Coastal Carolina has a lot of the same positives of Boise State, but in some ways they are better.  Name the last time Boise State won the College World Series.

Alternative: Appalachian State

That would be three from Conference USA and one from the Sun Belt.  Other commenters have mentioned Florida International and Florida Atlantic.  Both are in the Miami area and both are in the shadow of Miami.  That may or may not be a good move.

Other Conferences expansion options:

Mountain West: Coming Soon

Conference USA: Coming Soon

Sun Belt Conference: Coming Soon

Big Sky Conference: Coming Soon

Next: Does the West Coast Conference replace BYU?

It will be different after this year....or perhaps it already is.

This coming Saturday, Utah will visit BYU in football.  This will be the last time the two schools will meet with something on the line.

By kickoff, BYU is expected to be formally invited to the Big 12 Conference.  In case you have not yet heard.  You probably have.

The rivalry is taking a two year hiatus.  Next time the Cougars and Utes meet in 2024 in Salt Lake City, the Cougars will also be a member of a Power 5 conference, like their rivals who have been in the PAC-12 for a decade.

This year, BYU enters the game still unbeaten.  Going unbeaten in the Cougars only hope at getting into the college football playoffs or even getting to a big bowl game.  The next time the two meet, BYU could lose the game and still get a bid to the Sugar Bowl or even better.  Now, even if the Utes lose to the Cougars, they could still go to the Rose Bowl or better.

Next time they meet, it will be just for fun.  Hopefully the game is fun this year as well.  The game did not happen last season.  This year, under the spectre of the COVID-19 pandemic, and on the 20th Anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and with the ending of the war that those attacks started, it seems like the game is less important.

Certainly to many fans, it may be just as important.  However, I do not see the same ribbing from fan to fan that I used to.  Things have changed quite a bit since the last time these two met in 2019.  While we are more divided, there is more than only football diving us.  Outside of football, you will find Cougars and Utes on both sides of the issue.

Perhaps this Saturday at 8:00 when things get ready to go down somewhere south of Draper, we can set aside what divides us, and weather we pull for Salt Lake County or Utah County, the Red or the Blue.  We can also remember that football is only a game.  Perhaps we can remember that Utah coach Kyle Whittingham once played for BYU.  Perhaps we can remember that BYU coach Kalani Sitake once was an assistant coach at Utah.  There is more that unites us that divides us.

We should remember that Utah and BYU have played in the Rose Bowl the same number of times.  That the Utes went to the Sugar Bowl first.  That the Cougars have more national championships than the Utes have.  Both sides have something to brag about.  Both sides have their moments of embarrassment and dread.

Or perhaps this is wishful thinking.  Perhaps more wishful than the Cougar fans hoping their team ends the streak this year.

BYU in the Big 12 is happening.

Things change rapidly, I had a nice post written last weekend, and decided to wait a week and see what happened.  Something did.

The four schools that are being looked at most seriously by the Big 12 for expansion are BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston.

The reports are that these four will join in 2023.  That means that the Big 12 will be at 14 for two seasons unless Texas and Oklahoma can negotiate an early buyout.  Likely, and this is my speculation, the divisions will be all of Texas with Oklahoma State and BYU in the west.  Everyone else in the east.  This will force the Red River Rivalry, between Texas and Oklahoma to be a non-conference game.  Although, the conference may go to 8 conference games during that period to accommodate.  This gives a two year period to solidify the four new schools as power-5 programs.  You don't need to get BYU or UCF into the playoffs during that period (Although, I like BYU's chances if Jaren Hall stays at BYU.  He will be a senior in 2023) but they just need to prove they can compete.

BYU will dump a slate of non conference games from 2023 on.  All of them have clauses allowing BYU to cancel the games if they receive a Power 5 conference invite.  For BYU in 2023, I imagine they will keep Tennessee, Arkansas, Rice and Utah State on the schedule.  (Two at home and two on the Road)  What about the other games? UCF is now in the same conference, probably not in the same division.  Virginia and Fresno State could play each-other.  USF and UNLV could play each other.  And the marquee matchup to come out of this...Boise State playing at USC.  But I am not going to devote a whole blog post to that.  All I will say is BYU's non-conference priority will be keeping the rivalry with Utah going and to play the Utes whenever the two can get together.  Utah State will also be a priority for the Cougars as well.  Likely Boise State and BYU will play regularly, but not every season.

Also, if you are a fan of Boise State and Memphis.  (Colorado State or UConn)  Don't fret.  If the Big 14 works, you may get to join in 2025.  

I am sad to see annual games between BYU and Boise State to go by the wayside.  I enjoyed the series and hope that a 14-team Big 12 will work and we will see BSU in the conference.  They are a fun program, and look to be having a "down" year this year. (For them a down year is 9-3.) Being passed over by a power conference is probably a gut punch for the fans and program.  

One thing I am looking forward to is the "cat fight" between BYU and Houston.  In recent years, they have played some classics.  Including a pair of matchups from last decade where they beat each other on the road, Houston winning a close game in Provo, BYU winning a close one in Houston.  They were fun games.  This will be a fun new rivalry.

There will be other dominoes that fall.  I decided rather than one big post about how, to break this up into conference by conference and see where it goes from there.  Obviously, when I write about how the Big Sky Conference is effected by all of this and discuss whether the MW is better with North Dakota State or North Texas, BYU fans will tune out.  They probably don't care.  Those post are in the works.  Particularly interesting to me is a possible war between the AAC and the MWC is brewing.  Obviously, the MWC may be planning for life after Boise State, but they do not want to lose BSU to the AAC.

______________________

Possible alignment for 2023-24 for Big 12(14) conference.

Possible BYU schedule for 2023:
(Note...not the actual schedule)

9/2--Tennessee
9/9--Kansas State*
9/16--At Utah State
9/23--At Arkansas
9/29--Rice
10/7--At Texas*
10/14--Texas Tech*
10/21--(BYE)
10/28--at Baylor*
11/4--Oklahoma State*
11/11--at TCU*
11/18--Cincinnati*
11/25--at Houston*