Generally, when the economy is bad and the nation is in crisis, it is a slam dunk election for the challenger. Historically, America is does not want to change leadership in a crisis. This is 2020. If the Democrats were running someone, anyone, younger and more charismatic than Joe Biden, this would be a slam dunk. However, if the President Trump showed a monicam of leadership, this would be a slam dunk for Trump. This is why the election is close. It is an election of futility.
If I was a Republican Strategist, I would at this point, that Trump focus the campaign in states where the senate vote is a tossup...such as Montana, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia while shoring up support in Texas, Arizona and Florida. Do not worry about the rest of the country.
I would do the same if I were a Biden strategist. Get double bang for the buck.
I would, however, put the over/under for a Biden victory around 320 Electoral Votes, which is not exactly a landslide. This could end up as anywhere between a landslide victory for Biden to a narrow victory for Trump. In other words +/- 55 Electoral Votes. I do not expect "the Donald", either way, will win the popular vote.
I put the over-under for the senate to be a 50-50 deadlock. This would mean that the Vice President would hold the deciding vote.
I would put the HOR not to change much, but for Jim Clayburn to become the new house speaker, the first African American to serve in that post.
It is very important to vote on those down-ticket items. After all, the recent pandemic has proven that the closer the government is to you, the more impact it has on your life.
