There are a couple of changes that I am making this year to this blog. First of all, I am not predicting the Big 12 expansion. The information that is coming is changing regularly and those who are normally "in the know" are not in the know this time. The main reason for this trouble is Houston. There is a lot of political pressure for the 2 Texas public schools to push for Houston's inclusion. This could be a warning to all of the other power conferences should they expand again. A lot of this could be made up as writers strive for relevance. For me, I know that I am irrelevant, and therefore I am staying away. However, if the Big 12 does expand, I am 90% confident they will be a lock.
Second, when I rank the most difficult games remaining, it does not mean that team A on the future schedule is better than team B. For example. Southern Utah will play at both BYU and Utah. I will list Utah as the tougher of the two games. Not because Utah is necessarily the better team, which we will find out next week. But early season games, especially road games, can be more difficult.
BYU Cougars
There is a new boss, and this is a new era in Cougarland. It is not like Bronco Mendenhall left Kalani Sitake a bad team to work with. There are a few missing pieces, like no experienced tight ends. Bronco recruited more heavily on defense, and there was some inconsistency at other positions. Defensively, BYU should be kept close enough to any of their opponents to win games that they should not. However, don't hold out hope for a perfect season. Just enjoy the ride.
BYU games from toughest to easiest:
Likely Losses
At Michigan State
UCLA
At Utah
Probable Loss
vs. West Virginia
Probable Wins
vs. Arizona
Mississippi State
At Boise State
At Cincinnati
Likely Wins
Toledo
Utah State
Southern Utah
UMass
Optimistic Result 9-3. Pessimistic Result: 4-8
Off Season Prediction: Poinsettia Bowl
This week's game: BYU 29 Arizona 24
Utah Utes
Stellar defense, questions at quarterback. Some things never change in Salt Lake City. That has been the formula for Kyle Whittingham in the past 8 years. The good news for Utah and their fans, most of the hardest games of the season are at home. That could be the difference this year.
Utah games from toughest to easiest
Likely loss
at UCLA
Probable Loss
Oregon
USC
Probable Wins
Washington
at Arizona State
Likely Wins
BYU
Arizona
at California
at Oregon State
at Colorado
as San Jose State
Southern Utah
This week's guess: Utah 55 S. Utah 13
Optimistic result: 11-1. Pessimistic result 7-5
Post-Season Prediction: Alamo Bowl
Utah State Aggies
It's kind of a mixed bag for Utah State this year. They have underated talent, but don't really have the schedule to show them off. Not that I am predicting that they will go into the LA Colosseum and come home celebrating a win, but I don't really see them finishing worse than 2nd in the MW Mountain. The real question in Logan is how much longer can they hang on to Matt Wells if they keep doing so well.
Games from toughest to easiest
Likely Losses
at USC
at Boise State
at BYU
Probable Loss
San Diego State
Probable Wins
at Nevada
at Colorado State
New Mexico
Likely Wins
Arkansas State
Air Force
at Wyoming
Fresno State
Weber State
Optimistic Result: 9-3 Pessimistic Result: 5-7
Post-Season Prediction: Hawaii Bowl
This week's guess: USU 32 Weber State 10
Weber State Wildcats
Jay Hill knows a little about opposition. He is the Weber State head coach, a program that seems cursed. Now his wife has cancer. But the team has rallied behind their coach's family. And that is what a good team does. The program continues to dig out of the hole that was dug when Ron McBride retired. The talent is still young. They are really about 1 year away from being good again. However, I don't see Montana or Eastern Washington on the schedule this year. Such is life in the Big Sky Conference
Games from toughest to easiest
Likely Loss
at Utah State
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
Portland State
Probable Wins
at South Dakota
Montana State
at Southern Utah
Likely Wins
at Idaho State
Sacramento State
at North Dakota
UC Davis
Optimistic result 10-1 Pessimistic Result 4-7
Post-Season Outlook: Is there an NIT in the FCS playoff?
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
It is easy to say that SUU had a great year last year. But they lost too much, including coach Ed Lamb. However, don't expect the T-Birds to just lie down and be the punching bag of the Big Sky Conference. They still have the potential to be the surprise team in the Big Sky Conference.
Games from toughest to easiest
Likely losses
at BYU
at Utah
at Montana
at Northern Arizona
Probable Losses
Portland State
Weber State
Probable Wins
NE Louisiana
Montana State
Likely Wins
at North Dakota
at Idaho State
at UC Davis
Optimistic result: 7-4 Pessimistic Result: 3-8
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Commentary on the Olympics
I am currently prepping the College Football Preview, which will be downsized this year. I have other things on my plate, but will continue to blog weekly about the college football scene in Utah. I find the Big 12 expansion debate thrilling, but I have no credible information leading to how it will turn out in the end.
The Olympic games just finished in Rio. Overall, things went well for the United States. There were some disappointments. There always are, and there always will be. At this level of competition, anything can happen. Eventually, the women's basketball team will lose, and someone else will dominate the pool. But that is all another place and time. But there is nothing for Americans to be ashamed of. I, for one, am proud.
There were some off-the-field embarrassments. Ryan Lochte was one of them. He should just admit he was drunk, and therefore not capable of telling the truth about what happened. That would be the most believable thing he should say.
Hope Solo was an ungracious loser. Soccer is a funny sport. More than any other popular sport, the underdog has a chance in any given game. This is why most professional soccer leagues world-wide do not crown a champion after a playoff. It is very likely that the best team overall during the season will lose.
The same thing can be said in selecting a host city for the games. I do not think that Los Angeles will be the hose of the 2024 games. It is likely Rome or Paris. There were 52 years between the LA games of 1932 and 1984. That is about right time between games hosted in the United States. Even if it can be done on the cheap. Atlanta hosted the Olympic games of 1996. The next time the United States should host the summer games is 2048.
Sale Lake City had a good plan when building Olympic Venues for the 2002 winter games. They set aside money for continuous upkeep. They constantly bid to bring the World Cup to Salt Lake. They open up the venues for the public to use. Some of the venues are still used for training. If Salt Lake were to host the games again, they really could do it with little money. It is a much better plan that hosting the game and then letting the venues wither away through neglect and non-use. This should be the template going forward.
There were 22 years between the Lake Placid games of 1980, and the Salt Lake games. 24 years is about right for the United States to wait for their next Winter games. The USOC should plan on putting a strong bid for the 2026 Winter games.
I am very surprised to find that no cities in North America are bidding for the 2028 games. Buenos Aries will host the 2018 youth games. If Paris or Rome wins the right to host the 2024 games, Argentina becomes the front runner for the 2028 games. No other cities in either North or South America are planning bids for 2028 so far. Perhaps this is a sign that the USOC will put together a bid for the 2026 Winter games should the LA bid fail.
If 2024 LA fails, then the next window of opportunity for the US to host the summer games, is literally 2040 as the IOC loves to rotate the games around the world. 2024 is likely to be in Europe. 2028 is likely to be in the Americas with Buenos Aires the only city in the Americas that has expressed interest, so far. 2032 is likely to be in Asia or Oceania. 2036 would then be in either Europe or Africa. US Cities will likely try and bid, but the best chance is 2040 when the Summer games will visit the Americas once again.
The winter games don't necessarily follow this pattern. No one in Europe or the Americas bid for the 2022 winter games. All of the other cities dropped out. That is why you get two winter games in a row for Asia and three consecutive Olympic games in that part of the world. Very good chance that if the USOC goes for the 2026 Winter games, they will get it, whatever city they choose. Therefore, choose wisely.
Hosting the Olympic games is costly. Most cities don't plan for what to do with the venues after the games. With planning and architecture improving, I see more games making use of temporary stadia and venues that will be taken down or re-purposed after the games are over, much like some of the venues in Rio. Many of the venues in Tokyo will be temporary. This is another model that may work for future Olympic games.
Let's hope that they can find ways to keep the Olympic games affordable for host nations and keep the tradition alive.
The Olympic games just finished in Rio. Overall, things went well for the United States. There were some disappointments. There always are, and there always will be. At this level of competition, anything can happen. Eventually, the women's basketball team will lose, and someone else will dominate the pool. But that is all another place and time. But there is nothing for Americans to be ashamed of. I, for one, am proud.
There were some off-the-field embarrassments. Ryan Lochte was one of them. He should just admit he was drunk, and therefore not capable of telling the truth about what happened. That would be the most believable thing he should say.
Hope Solo was an ungracious loser. Soccer is a funny sport. More than any other popular sport, the underdog has a chance in any given game. This is why most professional soccer leagues world-wide do not crown a champion after a playoff. It is very likely that the best team overall during the season will lose.
The same thing can be said in selecting a host city for the games. I do not think that Los Angeles will be the hose of the 2024 games. It is likely Rome or Paris. There were 52 years between the LA games of 1932 and 1984. That is about right time between games hosted in the United States. Even if it can be done on the cheap. Atlanta hosted the Olympic games of 1996. The next time the United States should host the summer games is 2048.
Sale Lake City had a good plan when building Olympic Venues for the 2002 winter games. They set aside money for continuous upkeep. They constantly bid to bring the World Cup to Salt Lake. They open up the venues for the public to use. Some of the venues are still used for training. If Salt Lake were to host the games again, they really could do it with little money. It is a much better plan that hosting the game and then letting the venues wither away through neglect and non-use. This should be the template going forward.
There were 22 years between the Lake Placid games of 1980, and the Salt Lake games. 24 years is about right for the United States to wait for their next Winter games. The USOC should plan on putting a strong bid for the 2026 Winter games.
I am very surprised to find that no cities in North America are bidding for the 2028 games. Buenos Aries will host the 2018 youth games. If Paris or Rome wins the right to host the 2024 games, Argentina becomes the front runner for the 2028 games. No other cities in either North or South America are planning bids for 2028 so far. Perhaps this is a sign that the USOC will put together a bid for the 2026 Winter games should the LA bid fail.
If 2024 LA fails, then the next window of opportunity for the US to host the summer games, is literally 2040 as the IOC loves to rotate the games around the world. 2024 is likely to be in Europe. 2028 is likely to be in the Americas with Buenos Aires the only city in the Americas that has expressed interest, so far. 2032 is likely to be in Asia or Oceania. 2036 would then be in either Europe or Africa. US Cities will likely try and bid, but the best chance is 2040 when the Summer games will visit the Americas once again.
The winter games don't necessarily follow this pattern. No one in Europe or the Americas bid for the 2022 winter games. All of the other cities dropped out. That is why you get two winter games in a row for Asia and three consecutive Olympic games in that part of the world. Very good chance that if the USOC goes for the 2026 Winter games, they will get it, whatever city they choose. Therefore, choose wisely.
Hosting the Olympic games is costly. Most cities don't plan for what to do with the venues after the games. With planning and architecture improving, I see more games making use of temporary stadia and venues that will be taken down or re-purposed after the games are over, much like some of the venues in Rio. Many of the venues in Tokyo will be temporary. This is another model that may work for future Olympic games.
Let's hope that they can find ways to keep the Olympic games affordable for host nations and keep the tradition alive.
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