Predictions/Expectations for 2015--Updated 8/6/15

The football break is now over.  Teams are now practicing, and it is time to fire up the old college football blog and look at how things will shape up for our Beehive State teams this year.

Utah Utes

Outlook: Utah is better than they were last year, but...

Prediction: 4th in PAC-12 South Division behind USC, UCLA, Arizona, but ahead of Arizona State and Colorado.  Will likely finally play in the Holiday Bowl.

Probable wins (7)

Michigan
Utah State
Fresno State
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Colorado

Probable Losses (3)

Oregon
USC
UCLA

Too Close to Call (2)

Washington
Arizona

Optimists Prediction 9-3
Pessimists Prediction 7-4

BYU Cougars

Note:  This is updated after the announcement of the Jamaal Williams redshirt.  (Likely transfer)  I doubt he will wear a Cougar uniform again.  I wasn't drinking the BYU Kool-Aid before the announcement.  They are trying to play a Big 12 schedule with MWC talent.  It doesn't work.  It's going to be a rough year for BYU as Taysom Hill can't carry the team on his own.  He needs a quality RB to keep the defenses honest.  (I will write a longer opinion article later.)

Outlook: BYU is playing a tougher schedule these days, but do not have the talent to match.  If they finish bowl eligible, likely will end up in Hawaii.

Probable Wins (3)

Connecticut
East Carolina
Wagner

Probable Losses (6)

Nebraska
Boise State
UCLA
Michigan
Missouri
Utah State

Too Close to Call (3)

Cincinnati
San Jose State
Fresno State

(The loss of Jamaal Williams, for me, turned Michigan and Utah State into a probable losses and San Jose State and Fresno State into borderline games.)

Optimists Prediction 6-6
Pessimists Prediction 3-9

Utah State Aggies

Outlook:  Aggies are probably the 2nd best team in the MW Mountain.  Probably another trip to the Poinsettia Bowl.

Probable Wins (7)

Southern Utah
Colorado State
Fresno State
Wyoming
Air Force
Nevada
BYU

Probable Losses (3)

Utah
Washington
Boise State

Too Close to Call (2)

San Diego State
Nevada

Optimists Prediction: 9-3
Pessimists Prediction: 7-5

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Outlook: Didn't get a lot of love at BSC media days, but they have a favorable schedule.

Probable Wins (5)

South Dakota State
Northern Colorado
Brevard
Sacramento State
UC Davis

Probable Losses (3)

Utah State
Cal Poly
Montana State

Too Close to Call (3)

Weber State
Portland State
Northern Arizona

Optimists Prediction: 8-3
Pessimists Prediction 5-6

Weber State Wildcats

Outlook:  They will probably win more than 2 games this season...not many more, but more.

Probable Wins (3)

Northern Colorado
North Dakota
UC Davis

Probable Losses (5)

Oregon State
North Dakota State
Montana
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington

Too Close to Call (3)

Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Idaho State

Optimists Prediction: 6-5
Pessimists Prediction: 3-8

Is the Big Sky Conference safe from realignment?

One of the reasons the Big Sky Conference expanded to 13 members from football was because they feared that some schools would leave.  At the time, the WAC was desperately attempting to hang on as a football conference and approached Montana and, by some reports, at least 5 other schools.  No one took the bait, and the WAC now no longer sponsors football.

But that was the WAC and the time was more than a half-decade ago.  Montana, at the time, decided that the expense required to move from the FCS to the FBS was not worth the extra revenue they would receive.  If Montana had moved, then others would have followed and the WAC would still be a sponsor of football.

But now that times have changed, would Montana make the same choice today?  Would Eastern Washington, Portland State or Sacramento State remain in the Big Sky Conference if there was a chance to move to the Mountain West Conference.

Let's take a look at what the Magic 8 ball says today?  I ask Magic 8 ball, "Will Montana join the Mountain West Conference"  I shake it up and the answer is, "My sources say no."  How about Portland State, and the reply is, "signs point to yes".  What about Sacramento State, and the magic 8 ball says, "yes."  Finally I ask, "Is the Big Sky Conference safe from further conference realignment?" and the reply is, "My sources say no."

Conference realignment has taken a breather.  Nothing has happened for a few years.  But if there is one constant in the known universe, it is change.  If BYU does join the Big 12 conference, they certainly will not come alone.  Boise State is their likely partner.  Hawaii is also rumored to be dropping football.  Most likely, the MWC will want to stay at 12 if Boise State leaves, or if Hawaii drops football.  And the most likely replacement for Boise State or Hawaii will not be Idaho or New Mexico State, but it will be a school from the Big Sky Conference. 

The Mountain West Conference is not like the WAC was when they approached Montana a few years ago.  That is, after all, where most of the WAC went, the reason why the WAC was so desperate in the first place.  While it was easy to so no to the WAC, it would not be easy to say no to the MWC.  

Montana might still say no to the MWC, or may insist that Montana State come with them, which might be a turn off to the MWC.  But other schools, like Eastern Washington may jump at the chance to move to the next level.

The other threat to the Big Sky Conference is encroachment by other FCS-level leagues.  All that is needed, for example, for the Big West Conference to bring back football are six schools.  They already have UC Davis and Cal Poly, who are football-only members of the conference.  The University of San Diego also sponsors football as a member of the Pioneer Conference.  Their nearest conference rival is Drake in Des Moines, Iowa.  If Hawaii decides to drop to the FCS instead of dropping football, then the Big West would only need two more schools to bring football back.  The proposed Los Angeles Ram football stadium in Inglewood isn't very far from Long Beach, and could give the 49ers just enough incentive to return to the gridiron.  And there are strong movements to bring football back to CS Northridge and CS Fullerton.  And if we are honest, we would also realize that the Big West is a better geographical fit for Sacramento State than the Big Sky.

The third treat to the conference is that schools may decide to stop playing football and to focus on other sports.  If this happens, they would certainly be out of the conference like Gonzaga and CS Northridge.  There would be better conference choices.

But if you read this blog, I'm sounding like a broken record.  But if someone asks the question, why is the Big Sky Conference so big?  Why do we have 13 football schools, this is the answer.  It's a response to the forces that threaten it.  At the same time, if any school gets invited to the MWC, that should be celebrated, not mourned.  The Big Sky Conference will survive.