Sunday, October 27, 2013

Boise State, Humility or Reality

When Utah scored their famous 57-28 victory over BYU in 1988, Provo Daily Herald columnist penned an article stating it was a changing of the times in Provo.  He said it was a signal of the end of BYU dominance in the WAC.  They would still be good, but not just dominant.

The same kind of reality is falling into Boise this season.  This weekend, Boise State dropped the first game to a team from the State of Utah since they were members of the Big Sky Conference and lost at Weber State in 1993.  Boise State has been very successful in football since it's inception in 1968.  The Broncos, at both the I-AA and I-A levels, have only suffered 5 losing seasons.  There are not many teams in the country that have experienced that kind of success.  Since 1968, BYU has endured 9 loosing campaigns.  However, teams with the kind of success that the Broncos have had are a rarity.

The most successful college football team in history, the Michigan Wolverines, average 9 wins per season.  Nobody wins 10 games per year every year.  It just doesn't happen to anyone.  No matter what happens in Boise the remainder of the season, it's simply not time to panic.  I can foresee at least 3 more wins at BSU this season.  If you run the kind of program where 8 wins is a bad season, you should be pretty darn happy with that.  Being happy with that reality is a sign of humility.

Players of the Week

BYU 37 Boise State 20

BYU POW: QB Taysom Hill
399 Yards and 3 TDs passing, 69 Yards and 1 TD Rushing

USC 19 Utah 3

Utah POW: The Defensive Line
Held USC to 30 Net Yards Rushing with a long of only 13 yards

Southern Utah 19 Idaho State 9

SUU POW: QB Mike Sharp
178 Yards Passing 157 Yards Rushing with 1 Touchdown

By Conference

PAC-12

Washington RB Bishop Sankey
241 Yards Rushing and 2 Touchdowns

FBS Independents

BYU QB Taysom Hill

MWC

Wyoming RB Shaun Wick
234 Yards Rushing in the loss to San Jose State

Big Sky Conference

Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams
Tossed 6 Touchdown Passes vs. Montana

Games of the Week

PAC-12

Stanford 20 Oregon State 12

FBS Independents

Navy 24 Pittsburgh 21

MWC

Fresno State 35 San Diego State 28

Big Sky

Northern Arizona 17 Cal Poly 13

Power Rankings

PAC-12

1.  Oregon
2.  Stanford
3.  Arizona State
4.  UCLA
5.  Washington
6.  Oregon State
7.  USC
8.  Arizona
9.  Utah
10. Washington State
11. Colorado
12. California

FBS Independent

1.  Notre Dame
2.  BYU
3.  Navy
4.  Old Dominion
5.  Army
6.  Idaho
7.  New Mexico State

MWC

1.  Fresno State
2.  Utah State
3.  Boise State
4.  San Diego State
5.  San Jose State
6.  UNLV
7.  Wyoming
8.  Nevada
9.  Colorado State
10. New Mexico
11. Air Force
12. Hawaii

Big Sky

1.  Eastern Washington
2.  Montana State
3.  Montana
4.  Northern Arizona
5.  Southern Utah
6.  Cal Poly
7.  Sacramento State
8.  Portland State
9.  North Dakota
10. UC Davis
11. Idaho State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Weber State

Projections

BYU
Current Record: 6-2
Projected Wins: Idaho State, Nevada, USC (Fight Hunger Bowl)
Borderline: Notre Dame
Projected Loss: Wisconsin
Projected Finish 9-4 at worst, 10-3 at best

Utah
Current Record: 4-4
Projected Wins: Colorado
Borderline: Washington State
Projected Losses: Arizona State, Oregon
Projected Finish: 5-7 at worst, 6-6 at best

Utah State
Current Record: 4-4
Projected Wins: Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, Navy (Armed Forces Bowl)
Projected Finish: 9-4

Southern Utah
Current Record: 6-3
Projected Win: Weber State
Borderline: Northern Arizona
Projected Loss: Montana State
Projected Finish: 7-5 at worst 8-4 at best

Weber State
Current Record: 1-8
Borderline: Idaho State
Projected Losses: Portland State, Southern Utah, Montana
Projected Finish: 1-11 at worst, 2-10 at best

Note about quarterbacks:

BYU is the only school in Utah with a quarterback who has remained healthy all season.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Winning the Shootout.

It's good for BYU fans to see BYU win an offensive shootout this season for more than one reason.  First, off, we know that the Cougar defense is not invincible.  Since the mid 2010 season, the BYU defense, for 11 games every season has been tough, but there has always been that one game where the opponent runs up the score.  In 2011, it was Utah who put up 54 points, and BYU lost 54-10.  Last year, it was Oregon State that found the weak link in BYU's armor.  BYU lost that game too.  Winning a shootout is a sign that the Cougars are improved, at least on offense.

There are two other tests for BYU to prove that this year's team is better than last years.  The first comes this Friday at home against Boise State.  The last two games against the Broncos have been tough, close losses for Bronco's team.  After a bye week, BYU gets to play at Notre Dame.  If BYU wins both of those games, then we can claim progress over last year's team and look forward to next season.

Finally, after watching BYU's game yesterday, I have a feeling that the 2015 Heisman race could be a battle between Taysom Hill and John O'Korn.  Hill, at least, won round 1.  Round 2 is next fall in Provo.

Players of the Week

Arizona 35 Utah 24

Utah POW QB Adam Schultz
Very efficient in coming off the bench for Travis Wilson

Utah State 41 New Mexico 10

USU POW RB Joey DeMartino
144 Yards Rushing

BYU 47 Houston 46

BYU POW QB Taysom Hill
417 Yards Passing, 128 Yards Rushing 4TD Passes

Eastern Washington 34 Southern Utah 10

SUU POW QB Aaron Kantu
Hung tough in the blowout.

Montana State 34 Weber State 16

WSU POW RB Bo Bolen
124 Yards Rushing and 1 TD

Conference Players of the Week

PAC-12
Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey
236 Yards Rushing and 1 TD vs. Utah

FBS Independent
BYU QB Taysom Hill

MWC
Colorado State RB Kapri Biggs
201 Yards Rushing and 3TDs vs. Wyoming

Big Sky
Northern Arizona RB Zach Bauman
266 Yards Rushing and 2TDs vs. Idaho State

Games of the Week

PAC-12
Arizona 35 Utah 24

FBS Independents
BYU 47 Houston 46

MWC
Boise State 34 Nevada 17
(Closest game in the MWC this week)

Big Sky
Montana 21 Cal Poly 14

Power Rankings

PAC-12

1.  Oregon
2.  Arizona State
3.  Stanford
4.  UCLA
5.  Washington
6.  Oregon State
7.  Arizona
8.  Utah
9.  Washington State
10. USC
11. Colorado
12. California

FBS Independent

1.  Notre Dame
2.  BYU
3.  Navy
4.  Old Dominion
5.  Army
6.  New Mexico State
7.  Idaho

MWC

1.  Fresno State
2.  Boise State
3.  Utah State
4.  San Diego State
5.  Nevada
6.  San Jose State
7.  UNLV
8.  Wyoming
9.  Colorado State
10. Air Force
11. New Mexico
12. Hawaii

Big Sky

1.  Eastern Washington
2.  Montana State
3.  Montana
4.  Northern Arizona
5.  Cal Poly
6.  Southern Utah
7.  Sacramento State
8.  North Dakota
9.  Portland State
10. UC Davis
11. Idaho State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Weber State

Projected Finishes

BYU
Current Record: 5-2
Projected Wins: Idaho State, Nevada, USC (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Tossup: Boise State
Projected Losses: Notre Dame, Wisconsin
Projected record: 8-5 or 9-4

Utah
Current Record:4-3
Projected Wins: USC, Colorado, Colorado State (New Mexico Bowl)
Tossup: USC, Washington State
Projected Losses: Arizona State, Oregon
Projected Record: 7-6 at worst, 9-4 at best

Utah State
Current Record: 4-4
Projected Wins: Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, Navy (Armed Forces Bowl)
Projected Record: 9-4

Southern Utah
Current Record: 5-3
Projected Wins: Idaho State, Weber State
Tossup: Northern Arizona
Projected Loss: Montana State
Projected Finish: 7-5 at worst, 8-4 at best

Weber State
Current Record: 1-7
Tossup: Idaho State
Projected Losses: Portland State, Southern Utah, Montana
Projected Finish: 1-11 at worst, 2-10 at best

QB Power Rankings

I am suspending the rankings this weeks as I do not yet know if Travis Wilson will play against USC.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Upset City

For a couple of days, my gut has told me that an upset was brewing among our Utah 5.  I wondered if it would be the Aggies with the unknown element in Logan, or if BYU would lay and egg against Georgia Tech.  Perhaps the WSU wildcats would pull a game out against the Cal Poly Mustangs.  But no, it was the Utes catching Stanford without a winning game plan.

That can happen, however, when a team is hungry enough.  This year in the PAC-12, it's been close but no cigar for Utah.  However, today, they were able to hang at the end of the game.

Whether or not this turns out to be the turnaround Ute fans have been expecting remains to be seen.  The Utes have not yet played a game out of the State of Utah.  They are not yet bowl eligible.  There are other surprises in the conference in 2013, and a couple of them appear on Utah's schedule.  They do not have time to sit back and enjoy this as they have a tough game in the desert in Tuscon next week.  It's right back to work and such is life in the PAC-12.

POWs

Utah 27 Stanford 21

RB Bubba Poole
-When a close game is on the line, a good running back not only chews up yards, but chews up clock.

BYU 38 Georgia Tech 20

LB Spencer Hadley
-In the second half, this game turned into a defensive battle until the 4th quarter pick 6.  When your offense can't generate anything more than a 3-and-out, the defense has to come up big. Hadley, just returned from suspension, did just that.

Boise State 34 Utah State 23

WR Travis Reynolds
-Utah State was able to make the game interesting because the quarterbacks had someone sure and steady as a target.

Southern Utah 17 Portland State 7

DB Tyree Mills
-The second quarter interception returned inside the 10 was big.

Cal Poly 47 Weber State 0

None Selected
-WSU continues to underwhelm on both sides of the ball.


Conference Players of the Week

PAC-12

Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
-336 yards in the air, 88 yards on the ground as Oregon defeated Washington.

FBS Indy

Army RB Terry Baggett
-304 yards on 18 carries as the Black Knights smothered Eastern Michigan.

MWC

San Jose State QB David Fales
-Completed 80% of his passes, threw for 431 yards and helped SJSU outlast Colorado State.

Big Sky

Northern Arizona RB Zach Bowman
-196 yards and 2 touchdowns as NAU nipped Sacramento State

Games of the Week

PAC-12

Utah 27 Stanford 21
-Stanford is the first top 5 to go down in defeat in 2013.

FBS Independent

BYU 38 Georgia Tech 20
-This game was close until a 4th quarter pick 6 by Alani Fua

MWC

UNLV 39 Hawaii 37
-The Rebels were almost victims of a Warrior comeback.  They won the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired.

Big Sky

Northern Arizona 39 Sacramento State 38
-The Lumberjacks erased a late 17 point Hornet lead.


Power Rankings

PAC-12

1.  Oregon
2.  UCLA
3.  Arizona State
4.  Oregon State
5.  Stanford
6.  Utah
7.  Washington
8.  USC
9.  Washington State
10.  Arizona
11.  Colorado
12.  California

FBS Inepdendent

1.  Notre Dame
2.  BYU
3.  Navy
4.  Army
5.  Old Dominion
6.  Idaho
7.  New Mexico State

MWC

1.  Fresno State
2.  Boise State
3.  Utah State
4.  San Diego State
5.  Wyoming
6.  UNLV
7.  Nevada
8.  San Jose State
9.  Colorado State
10. Air Force
11. New Mexico
12. Hawaii

Big Sky

1.  Eastern Washington
2.  Montana State
3.  Cal Poly
4.  Montana
5.  Southern Utah
6.  Northern Arizona
7.  Sacramento State
8.  North Dakota
9.  UC Davis
10. Portland State
11. Northern Colorado
12. Idaho State
13. Weber State

Projected Finishes

BYU
Currently 4-2
Projected Wins: Houston, Idaho State, Nevada, USC (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Projected Losses: Boise State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
Projected Finish: 8-5
(Houston is the projected win that could become a loss while Boise State is the projected loss that could become a win.)

Utah
Currently 4-2
Projected Wins: Arizona, USC, Washington State, Colorado
Projected Losses: Arizona State, Oregon, Fresno State (Las Vegas Bowl)
Projected Finish: 8-5
(USC is the projected win that could turn into a loss.  Fresno State is the projected loss that could turn into a win)

Utah State
Currently 3-4
Projected Wins: New Mexico, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, Navy (Armed Forces Bowl)
Projected Finish: 9-4
(UNLV and Wyoming are the most dangerous teams left on USU's schedule.)

Southern Utah
Currently 5-2
Projected Wins: Idaho State, Weber State, Northern Arizona
Projected Losses: Eastern Washington, Montana State
Projected Finish: 8-4
(SUU will need to defeat either EWU or Montana State to make the FCS playoffs.)

Weber State
Currently 1-6
Projected losses: Montana State, Portland State, Southern Utah, Montana, Idaho State
Projected Finish: 1-11

Utah QB Power Rankings

1.  Wilson
2.  Hill
3.  Garretson/Harrison
4.  Kantu
5.  Chippowetti

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Is the magical season over for Utah State?

Utah State's hope for a conference championship dimmed once Chukie Keeton went down in the 1st quarter against BYU on Friday evening.  But does that mean that hopes are over for Utah State this season?  I wouldn't give up on the Aggies if I were you.

First of all, let's take a look at what is going on in Boise.  They are in an uncharacteristically "poor" season.  But a poor season for Boise State represents the consistency that Utah State is looking for, at worst, the Broncos will finish with 8 wins.  Utah State is now hoping for 9.  There is some other drama happening in Boise.  Chris Peterson is considered by some to be the front-runner for the opening at USC, and the program can through all the money at Peterson can imagine to get him.  It will be difficult for BSU players to put that all behind them.

USU fans should also be proud of the way their team fought in the 4th quarter.  First, they stopped BYU in the red zone, then they made a good long drive against the tough Cougar defense.  Even when the game was out of reach, they didn't quit.  Yes, Boise State is the favorite in Logan on Saturday, but not so fast.  I would give the Aggies a chance against Boise State, and perhaps a place in the conference championship game.

BYU 31 USU 14

BYU MVP: WR Mitch Matthews
USU MVP: QB Craig Harrison

UCLA 34 Utah 27

Utah MVP: WR Dres Anderson

UCD 21 SUU 3

SUU MVP: QB Aaron Kantu

Eastern Washington 41 Weber State 19

WSU MVP: QB Austin Chippowetti

Conference Players of the Week

FBS Independents

Navy RB Keenan Reynolds

PAC-12

Washington State QB Connor Halliday

MWC

Nevada QB Cody Fajardo

Big Sky

Montana State RB Cody Kirk

Power Rankings

FBS Independents

1.  Notre Dame
2.  BYU
3.  Navy
4.  Old Dominion
5.  Army
6.  Idaho
7.  New Mexico State

PAC 12

1.  Oregon
2.  Stanford
3.  UCLA
4.  Arizona State
5.  Washington
6.  Oregon State
7.  Arizona
8.  Utah
9.  Washington State
10. USC
11. Colorado
12. California

MWC

1.  Fresno State
2.  Boise State
3.  San Diego State
4.  Utah State
5.  Nevada
6.  Wyoming
7.  Colorado State
8.  Air Force
9.  San Jose State
10. UNLV
11. Hawaii
12. New Mexico

Big Sky

1.  Montana State
2.  Eastern Washington
3.  Montana
4.  Cal Poly
5.  Northern Arizona
6.  North Dakota
7.  Southern Utah
8.  Portland State
9.  Southern Utah
10.  Sacramento State
11. Northern Colorado

12. Idaho State
13. Weber State

Beehive State QB Power Rankings

1.  Travis Wilson, Utah
2.  Taysom Hill, BYU
3.  Craig Harrison, Utah State
4.  Aaron Kantu, Southern Utah
5.  Austin Chippowetti, Weber State

Projected Finishes

BYU (3-2)

Projected Wins: Georgia Tech, Houston, Idaho State, Nevada, USC (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Projected Losses: Boise State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
Projected Finish 8-5

Utah State (3-3)
Projected Wins: New Mexico, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, Navy (Armed Forces Bowl)
Projected Loss: Boise State
Projected Finish: 9-4

Utah (3-2)
Projected Wins: Arizona, USC, Colorado, Wyoming (New Mexico Bowl)
Projected Losses: Stanford, Oregon, Washington State, Arizona State
Projected Finish: 7-6

Southern Utah (4-2)
Projected Wins: Portland State, Idaho State, Weber State
Projected Losses: Eastern Washington, Montana State, Northern Arizona
Projected Finish: 7-5

Weber State (1-5)
Projected Losses: Cal Poly, Montana State, Portland State, Southern Utah, Montana, Idaho State
Projected Finish: 1-11