Utah State at Utah
There is one difference between the Utes and the Aggies this year that will make all the difference in the game. Chuckie Keeton is a much more consistent quarterback than Travis Wilson. Enough said.
27-17 Aggies
BYU at Virginia
Big juggernaut offenses take a while go get the kinks out. However, it's not like BYU is taking on a good ACC team.
34-18 Cougars
Southern Utah at South Alabama
When the T-Birds take on a poor FBS team, they usually win.
28-14 T-Birds
Stephen F. Austin at Weber State
There was an article on KSL.com about regression to the mean. Last year, WSU had a poorer than usual season. Can they turn it around this year? It will have to start this week.
31-28 Cats.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Monday, August 26, 2013
BYU's 2014 Schedule is Tennatively Complete
This is the earliest that Tom Holmoe has finished a schedule in BYU's era of independence. Here is the schedule as it now stands
August 28 @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 (Open)
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Southern Mississippi
November 15 UNLV
November 22 (Open)
November 29 @ California
By Conference
American--3 (UConn, Houston, UCF)
Big 12--1 (Texas)
ACC--1 (Virginia)
MWC--4 (USU, Nevada, UNLV, BSU)
C-USA--2 (MTSU, USM)
PAC 12--1 (Cal)
If Southern Mississippi goes away, most likely replacement...it's too early to tell as there a lot of schools needing a game.
August 28 @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 (Open)
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Southern Mississippi
November 15 UNLV
November 22 (Open)
November 29 @ California
By Conference
American--3 (UConn, Houston, UCF)
Big 12--1 (Texas)
ACC--1 (Virginia)
MWC--4 (USU, Nevada, UNLV, BSU)
C-USA--2 (MTSU, USM)
PAC 12--1 (Cal)
If Southern Mississippi goes away, most likely replacement...it's too early to tell as there a lot of schools needing a game.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
My 2013 Prediction--Utah State Aggies
It took me a long time to write this one, because a couple of season ago, who would ever say something like this: I think we all feel that it is going to be a special season for the Aggies, but there is one game that stands out as the most important for USU. But it is not the game everyone thinks it is. If they don't win this one, the could go 11-1 and end up in the Armed Forces Bowl.
August 29--@ Utah
The Utes will be a tough challenge for USU to start the season. But the Aggies should win it.
September 7--@ Air Force
If you have not seen the Falcon triple option as a defense, it is hard to defend at first. The key is to build a lead, as this offense is not geared to come back.
September 14--Weber State
Weber State is better than most think they are this year, and it wasn't that long ago that WSU at USU would produce talk of a Wildcat victory. But that is only a pipe dream in 2013. Again, it will be a moral victory for the Cat if Chuckie gets under center in the 2nd half.
September 21--@ USC
Well, I'm about to predict something else that will shock a few people and end up costing someone their job. The USC Trojans going 0-3 against teams from the state of Utah. (I think USC and BYU will play in the Hunger Bowl.) The Aggies will start the Trojan woes this year and I think it will happen and it will cost Lane Kiffin his job.
September 28--@ San Jose State
This is a much more important game that is seems. David Fales is the real deal, and even with so much experience on the Aggie D, this could be the game of the season for USU. This is the game that the Aggies had better be ready for, and coming in between USU and BYU, it is the classic trap game. This game is more important that USC, BYU or Boise State. If the Aggies are not ready and lose this one, all hope of a BCS bowl go out the window. If it is like last year's game, all worries will be put to rest. I think it will be more like last year's game where Fales sees a lot of grass and the Aggies win.
October 4--BYU
This game will be closer than a lot of Aggie fans hope for. I expect another close, defensive battle with the home team coming out on top.
October 12--Boise State
If USU hopes for a BCS bowl are still alive, this becomes another important game. In the MWC, you have to win the conference title to get to the BCS and Boise State stands in their way. But the game is in Logan, and should have a large, partisan crowd behind them that should help them win easily.
October 19--@ New Mexico
Now the hard part of the season is over. The key will be not to take anyone else in the season lightly and UNM may be good enough to remind USU of that...for the first half. I foresee the Lobos leading at half-time, USU getting a nice pep talk and coming out the second half on playing up to their potential.
November 2--Hawaii
Yawn.
November 9--@UNLV
Hey USU fans, here is an opportunity for you. You know how cold Logan is in early November? Well, it's warm in Las Vegas, and there is plenty to do. And there will be plenty of seats available. Why not take a road trip this weekend? See the sights, play the slots, watch a show or two. The go to Sam Boyd Stadium and watch your Aggies beat up the Rebels. Perfect weekend.
November 23--Colorado State
Remember two years ago? Won't happen this year. USU with another easy win.
November 30--Wyoming
Time to put the cherry on top of what hasn't been done since TCU in 2005. Win the division and host the conference championship game.
December 7--MWC Championship Game vs. Fresno State
All the talk will be of Utah State going into conference championship weekend. The Bulldogs will not like playing the role of spoiler and may have just enough rage to catch the Aggies sleeping. Remember, USU will not have played a good quality team for half a season. And I think it catches up to them here. The Bulldogs will win by a touchdown, and many fans will go home disappointed.
Poinsettia Bowl vs. California
Army won't be in the Poinsettia Bowl this year, and I can see the MWC with 7 bowl eligible teams. I can see some sort of deal in the works that gets the Pac-12 out of the New Mexico Bowl and gets California a bowl that their fans will travel to. Should be a nice game for the Aggies to win.
Final prediction:
USU 13-1, Division champions. Top 15 ranking. Scott Barnes announces a stadium expansion. All is well in Aggieland for now.
August 29--@ Utah
The Utes will be a tough challenge for USU to start the season. But the Aggies should win it.
September 7--@ Air Force
If you have not seen the Falcon triple option as a defense, it is hard to defend at first. The key is to build a lead, as this offense is not geared to come back.
September 14--Weber State
Weber State is better than most think they are this year, and it wasn't that long ago that WSU at USU would produce talk of a Wildcat victory. But that is only a pipe dream in 2013. Again, it will be a moral victory for the Cat if Chuckie gets under center in the 2nd half.
September 21--@ USC
Well, I'm about to predict something else that will shock a few people and end up costing someone their job. The USC Trojans going 0-3 against teams from the state of Utah. (I think USC and BYU will play in the Hunger Bowl.) The Aggies will start the Trojan woes this year and I think it will happen and it will cost Lane Kiffin his job.
September 28--@ San Jose State
This is a much more important game that is seems. David Fales is the real deal, and even with so much experience on the Aggie D, this could be the game of the season for USU. This is the game that the Aggies had better be ready for, and coming in between USU and BYU, it is the classic trap game. This game is more important that USC, BYU or Boise State. If the Aggies are not ready and lose this one, all hope of a BCS bowl go out the window. If it is like last year's game, all worries will be put to rest. I think it will be more like last year's game where Fales sees a lot of grass and the Aggies win.
October 4--BYU
This game will be closer than a lot of Aggie fans hope for. I expect another close, defensive battle with the home team coming out on top.
October 12--Boise State
If USU hopes for a BCS bowl are still alive, this becomes another important game. In the MWC, you have to win the conference title to get to the BCS and Boise State stands in their way. But the game is in Logan, and should have a large, partisan crowd behind them that should help them win easily.
October 19--@ New Mexico
Now the hard part of the season is over. The key will be not to take anyone else in the season lightly and UNM may be good enough to remind USU of that...for the first half. I foresee the Lobos leading at half-time, USU getting a nice pep talk and coming out the second half on playing up to their potential.
November 2--Hawaii
Yawn.
November 9--@UNLV
Hey USU fans, here is an opportunity for you. You know how cold Logan is in early November? Well, it's warm in Las Vegas, and there is plenty to do. And there will be plenty of seats available. Why not take a road trip this weekend? See the sights, play the slots, watch a show or two. The go to Sam Boyd Stadium and watch your Aggies beat up the Rebels. Perfect weekend.
November 23--Colorado State
Remember two years ago? Won't happen this year. USU with another easy win.
November 30--Wyoming
Time to put the cherry on top of what hasn't been done since TCU in 2005. Win the division and host the conference championship game.
December 7--MWC Championship Game vs. Fresno State
All the talk will be of Utah State going into conference championship weekend. The Bulldogs will not like playing the role of spoiler and may have just enough rage to catch the Aggies sleeping. Remember, USU will not have played a good quality team for half a season. And I think it catches up to them here. The Bulldogs will win by a touchdown, and many fans will go home disappointed.
Poinsettia Bowl vs. California
Army won't be in the Poinsettia Bowl this year, and I can see the MWC with 7 bowl eligible teams. I can see some sort of deal in the works that gets the Pac-12 out of the New Mexico Bowl and gets California a bowl that their fans will travel to. Should be a nice game for the Aggies to win.
Final prediction:
USU 13-1, Division champions. Top 15 ranking. Scott Barnes announces a stadium expansion. All is well in Aggieland for now.
Monday, August 5, 2013
The Split Comming in College Football
There is a split coming in college football. The elite 5 conferences want to move up on their own. There is frustration with many of these schools and feel that they have, for too long, supported other schools that don't make as much money as others. They also want to do more for their athletes, such as pay the full Title IV defined cost of education, but other schools continually vote such changes down. Right now, colleges only provide tuition, room and board and books for student athletes. Food is only covered in season, but not out of season. The full cost of education includes food, clothing, technology and reasonable travel expenses all within limits. Student athletes, to meet these costs, can accept the money from family or they can borrow the funds if they are Title IV eligible, or they can get a part-time job outside of their season.
Let's take a look at what the big colleges complain about, and if they have beef. Arkansas, of the SEC, last season averaged 66,000 fans at home for a 4-8 season. Their stadium holds 72,000 people. Meanwhile, across the state, the Champions of the Sun Belt Conference, Arkansas State, averaged 27,000 people at their home games. Their stadium holds 30,000. That was in support of a 10-3 season. You see the point? A lousy SEC team does better in getting fans to games than a very good Sun Belt team. There is, no doubt, a big difference between the SEC and the Sun Belt Conference, and the big 5 commissioners are upset that they are in the same subdivision. They don't want to subsidize sports at that level if the fans don't show up. They want to do something about it. They want to provide more for their athletes and they don't want to have to share their booty with schools who don't have the same level of support from their communities.
According to Steward Mandel of Sports Illustrated, they are not talking about shutting out the Mountain West, American Conference, Conference USA, MAC and the Sun Belt Conferences, per se, they just want those that don't have a realistic chance to be on the same plane. It's not that they can't compete on the Gridiron, it's that they can't compete at the turnstiles.
In order to avoid trouble with the Federal Government, they probably will not break away from the NCAA. There could be sanctions from the Department of Education. There could be anti-trust issues. And there could be title IX problems if all students are not given the same opportunities. The smaller colleges, including current FCS programs and even Division II programs, may also be forced to foot the bill for the full cost of education, but they will have to settle for fewer scholarships and may have to fill out their rosters with non-scholarship players. This will especially be the case if the breakaway is football-only.
After studying the issue, my suggestion is that the college football's two subdivisions become 3. The split will be based upon the level of support each college currently enjoys. My suggestion is that the boundary for the top division will be a 3-year running attendance, per conference, of 30,000. The only exception will be the 3 service academies, who already pay the full cost of education for all of their athletes. It means that the MWC can invite someone like Idaho and their average attendance of 8,000 if the conference average is above 30,000. There will be other requirements, such as the sponsorship of at least 16 varsity sports and the requirement that 90% of players on any active roster must receive at least a partial scholarship. The last requirement will ensure that schools like, Nebraska, don't show up for home games with 300 players in uniform, with only 85 on scholarship. If you have 85 players on scholarship, you can only dress 94 for any game. The middle division would require an attendance level of at least 10,000, sponsor only 14 sports, and is a little bit lighter on the restriction of scholarship athletes, allowing for more walk-ons. The lower division would require 8 sports and an attendance of at least 4,000 per conference. If a conference can't get at least 4,000 to a game, they would be required to drop to division II.
Here is how it would effect interest of this blog.
BYU:
I don't believe that BYU fans have a reason to be concerned. Chances are they may even be allowed to remain independent. By most standards, BYU is a top-30 college football program. There is no logical reason to keep the cougars out of the very top subdivision. They may be forced to join a conference because scheduling could become even more difficult, but BYU does not typically schedule a lot of games against C-USA, The MAC nor The Sun Belt. Which brings me to...
Mountain West Conference
If you look at the MWC attendance numbers, it becomes obvious that the entire conference can't be included in the top division. Some schools are really struggling to get people to attend games, and the MWC will have some tough choices to make. Wyoming, Colorado State and San Jose State will be easy programs to cut, they are bringing up the rear. The tough choice would be on the 4th program to cut. Will it be UNLV, New Mexico, Nevada or Utah State? The MWC could build back up with programs that do not hurt their attendance so much, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA, all who pull in better than 25,000 per game.
If the MWC were able to lure BYU and their 60,000+ attendance back to the fold, the choices wouldn't be so hard. But if I were BYU and had to give up my ESPN deal to join the MWC, I would push for everyone else to expand their stadiums and improve their attendance. If Arkansas can average 60,000+ when they have a bad season, there is no reason Fresno State should have less than 60,000 in their stadium. Same goes for Boise State. The conference would likely still have to drop two programs, but with BYU they could keep either CSU or Wyoming and could add someone who doesn't hurt the conference as much as San Jose State does, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA.
Hawaii is another problem. They are well supported, and one of the better-attended MWC schools in spite of their poor record in recent seasons. However, travel to and from Oahu is a problem for them. It's expensive. Hawaii may not be at the top subdivision due to costs.
Utah State
The Aggies need to do a few things to ensure that they would stay with the Mountain West Conference. First, win some games this season. But most importantly, get people to games. If USU get's their attendance figures around 25,000 this season, they could probably convince the MWC to keep them. However, there would also need to be plans for a stadium upgrade and expansion. I would suggest adding another 10,000-15,000 seats. If USU can then keep winning, people will come. What else is there in Logan?
Idaho
It is really time for Idaho to accept reality and simply reclassify at what is currently the FCS, where they can compete and succeed. Don't need to say more than that.
The Big Sky Conference
If there will be three football-playing subdivisions, then there will be the opportunity for some members to move to the top or middle subdivision. Montana should be at the top of college football because they have enough fan support. The MWC, without some of their bottom-feeders should provide enough revenue for Montana to provide support at the top level to their athletes. Montana State, EWU, Cal Poly and Sacramento State have enough support to be middle-subdivision teams. That would leave the Big Sky with (13-5=8) teams. It would be 9 if Idaho was to join for all sports, which should happen. The conference would still be in good shape unless some schools decide to stop playing football. With the requirement to pay full-cost of attendance for a certain percentage, and with the now non-football WAC looking for additional members, schools like Weber State, and Northern Arizona may consider again dropping football. Possible new members include Dixie State, Central Washington, Simon Fraser and Colorado Mesa.
Here is how I suggest the NCAA reclassify Division I
Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A)
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
PAC-12
SEC
American Athletic (I suggest they drop SMU, Tulsa and Tulane and add Appalachian State, James Madison and Louisiana Tech)
Mountain West (I suggest that they drop Colorado State, San Jose State and Wyoming and add UTEP, UTSA and Montana. Hawaii may drop out on their own due to costs.)
Independents: Army, Brigham Young and Notre Dame
Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA)
Consists of some current FBS conferences and some current FCS conferces
Conference USA (Remaining members)
Ivy
MAC
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Sun Belt
SWAC
Possible New Conference 1: SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State
Possible New Conference 2: Colorado State, San Jose State, Wyoming, Hawaii, Montana State, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State
Possible Independents: Delaware, Villanova, William and Mary, Liberty (The CAA as a whole is not strong enough, but could be with the right membership mix.)
Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
Big Sky (Remaining members plus new members)
Big South (Minus Liberty)
CAA (Remaining members)
MEAC
NEC
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Pioneer
Southern
Southland
Non-Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
American East
Atlantic Sun
Atlantic-10
Big East
Big West
Horizon
MAAC
MVC
The Summitt
WCC
WAC
Let's take a look at what the big colleges complain about, and if they have beef. Arkansas, of the SEC, last season averaged 66,000 fans at home for a 4-8 season. Their stadium holds 72,000 people. Meanwhile, across the state, the Champions of the Sun Belt Conference, Arkansas State, averaged 27,000 people at their home games. Their stadium holds 30,000. That was in support of a 10-3 season. You see the point? A lousy SEC team does better in getting fans to games than a very good Sun Belt team. There is, no doubt, a big difference between the SEC and the Sun Belt Conference, and the big 5 commissioners are upset that they are in the same subdivision. They don't want to subsidize sports at that level if the fans don't show up. They want to do something about it. They want to provide more for their athletes and they don't want to have to share their booty with schools who don't have the same level of support from their communities.
According to Steward Mandel of Sports Illustrated, they are not talking about shutting out the Mountain West, American Conference, Conference USA, MAC and the Sun Belt Conferences, per se, they just want those that don't have a realistic chance to be on the same plane. It's not that they can't compete on the Gridiron, it's that they can't compete at the turnstiles.
In order to avoid trouble with the Federal Government, they probably will not break away from the NCAA. There could be sanctions from the Department of Education. There could be anti-trust issues. And there could be title IX problems if all students are not given the same opportunities. The smaller colleges, including current FCS programs and even Division II programs, may also be forced to foot the bill for the full cost of education, but they will have to settle for fewer scholarships and may have to fill out their rosters with non-scholarship players. This will especially be the case if the breakaway is football-only.
After studying the issue, my suggestion is that the college football's two subdivisions become 3. The split will be based upon the level of support each college currently enjoys. My suggestion is that the boundary for the top division will be a 3-year running attendance, per conference, of 30,000. The only exception will be the 3 service academies, who already pay the full cost of education for all of their athletes. It means that the MWC can invite someone like Idaho and their average attendance of 8,000 if the conference average is above 30,000. There will be other requirements, such as the sponsorship of at least 16 varsity sports and the requirement that 90% of players on any active roster must receive at least a partial scholarship. The last requirement will ensure that schools like, Nebraska, don't show up for home games with 300 players in uniform, with only 85 on scholarship. If you have 85 players on scholarship, you can only dress 94 for any game. The middle division would require an attendance level of at least 10,000, sponsor only 14 sports, and is a little bit lighter on the restriction of scholarship athletes, allowing for more walk-ons. The lower division would require 8 sports and an attendance of at least 4,000 per conference. If a conference can't get at least 4,000 to a game, they would be required to drop to division II.
Here is how it would effect interest of this blog.
BYU:
I don't believe that BYU fans have a reason to be concerned. Chances are they may even be allowed to remain independent. By most standards, BYU is a top-30 college football program. There is no logical reason to keep the cougars out of the very top subdivision. They may be forced to join a conference because scheduling could become even more difficult, but BYU does not typically schedule a lot of games against C-USA, The MAC nor The Sun Belt. Which brings me to...
Mountain West Conference
If you look at the MWC attendance numbers, it becomes obvious that the entire conference can't be included in the top division. Some schools are really struggling to get people to attend games, and the MWC will have some tough choices to make. Wyoming, Colorado State and San Jose State will be easy programs to cut, they are bringing up the rear. The tough choice would be on the 4th program to cut. Will it be UNLV, New Mexico, Nevada or Utah State? The MWC could build back up with programs that do not hurt their attendance so much, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA, all who pull in better than 25,000 per game.
If the MWC were able to lure BYU and their 60,000+ attendance back to the fold, the choices wouldn't be so hard. But if I were BYU and had to give up my ESPN deal to join the MWC, I would push for everyone else to expand their stadiums and improve their attendance. If Arkansas can average 60,000+ when they have a bad season, there is no reason Fresno State should have less than 60,000 in their stadium. Same goes for Boise State. The conference would likely still have to drop two programs, but with BYU they could keep either CSU or Wyoming and could add someone who doesn't hurt the conference as much as San Jose State does, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA.
Hawaii is another problem. They are well supported, and one of the better-attended MWC schools in spite of their poor record in recent seasons. However, travel to and from Oahu is a problem for them. It's expensive. Hawaii may not be at the top subdivision due to costs.
Utah State
The Aggies need to do a few things to ensure that they would stay with the Mountain West Conference. First, win some games this season. But most importantly, get people to games. If USU get's their attendance figures around 25,000 this season, they could probably convince the MWC to keep them. However, there would also need to be plans for a stadium upgrade and expansion. I would suggest adding another 10,000-15,000 seats. If USU can then keep winning, people will come. What else is there in Logan?
Idaho
It is really time for Idaho to accept reality and simply reclassify at what is currently the FCS, where they can compete and succeed. Don't need to say more than that.
The Big Sky Conference
If there will be three football-playing subdivisions, then there will be the opportunity for some members to move to the top or middle subdivision. Montana should be at the top of college football because they have enough fan support. The MWC, without some of their bottom-feeders should provide enough revenue for Montana to provide support at the top level to their athletes. Montana State, EWU, Cal Poly and Sacramento State have enough support to be middle-subdivision teams. That would leave the Big Sky with (13-5=8) teams. It would be 9 if Idaho was to join for all sports, which should happen. The conference would still be in good shape unless some schools decide to stop playing football. With the requirement to pay full-cost of attendance for a certain percentage, and with the now non-football WAC looking for additional members, schools like Weber State, and Northern Arizona may consider again dropping football. Possible new members include Dixie State, Central Washington, Simon Fraser and Colorado Mesa.
Here is how I suggest the NCAA reclassify Division I
Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A)
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
PAC-12
SEC
American Athletic (I suggest they drop SMU, Tulsa and Tulane and add Appalachian State, James Madison and Louisiana Tech)
Mountain West (I suggest that they drop Colorado State, San Jose State and Wyoming and add UTEP, UTSA and Montana. Hawaii may drop out on their own due to costs.)
Independents: Army, Brigham Young and Notre Dame
Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA)
Consists of some current FBS conferences and some current FCS conferces
Conference USA (Remaining members)
Ivy
MAC
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Sun Belt
SWAC
Possible New Conference 1: SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State
Possible New Conference 2: Colorado State, San Jose State, Wyoming, Hawaii, Montana State, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State
Possible Independents: Delaware, Villanova, William and Mary, Liberty (The CAA as a whole is not strong enough, but could be with the right membership mix.)
Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
Big Sky (Remaining members plus new members)
Big South (Minus Liberty)
CAA (Remaining members)
MEAC
NEC
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Pioneer
Southern
Southland
Non-Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
American East
Atlantic Sun
Atlantic-10
Big East
Big West
Horizon
MAAC
MVC
The Summitt
WCC
WAC
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)