Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Bowl Predictions and Expectations

Well lucky us. Three bowl teams in two bowls and a renewed rivalry in one of them, just in case you have been hiding out in the Uintas all week.  And yes, there is a lot of intrigue in that one.  But I will begin with the game on the blue carpet in Boise.  Even though the other game is first.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Akron vs. Utah State
December 22, 2016

A Little about Akron

I didn't know about the Akron Zips until the bowl invite.  I didn't even know what a Zip was.   I found out that their nickname goes back to the day when Goodyear (Headquartered in Akron, Ohio) made rubber boots instead of tires...the late 1800s before the Henry Ford and his assembly line...and the long boots they made had a zipper on the outside.  The boots were called Zips.   I read that Akron is the only college in the world that has a mascot named for footwear.  We should be thankful this is not a trend.  However, in a trend that indicates modern times, the Zips have moved from the venerable old Rubber Bowl to InfoCision Stadium, where they now play their home games.  InfoCision is a telemarketing company like Convergys.

Akron has had its fair share of successes, John Heisman, that John Heisman, made a stop there as a coach on his way to Georgia Tech where he would gain his fame.  However, the program has not had a lot of success since moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision in 1992.  2015 is only their 4th winning season this century and their 6th since moving to the FBS permanently.  This 2015 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will only be their 2nd bowl appearance ever.  Currently the Zips are coached by Terry Bowden, the son of Bobby Bowden of Florida State Fame.  He took over for the 2012 season, their 3rd consecutive 1-win season.  This year the Zips are 7-5.

The Zips do not own a single win over an FBS opponent that finished over .500.  Their best win of the season was again a 5-7 Buffalo team.  Their sole non-conference win was against FCS Savanah State.  I could not find any highlights on them, but I am sure Matt Wells has seen film and that is much more important.

Their best player is Thomas Woodson, a sophomore quarterback who has thrown for 2,323 yards and 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.  Woodson has also run for 544 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He has two favorite targets, Jerome Lane and Imani Davis, who together account for about half of the receptions on the team.  The duo accounts for 2/3 of the touchdown receptions.  The leading rusher is Conor Hundley, who has accounted for 883 yards.  The Zips have a balanced attack which is close to 50-50.  But the lion share of the offense comes from Woodson passing to Lane and Davis and from Hundley.  The task for the Aggie defense is to shut these men down.  The Zip offense hasn't done well when facing a quality defense.  They scored 7 against Oklahoma, 7 against Pittsburgh, 12 against Ohio, 10 against Bowling Green, and 6 against Central Michigan.

With a healthy Chuckie Keeton, the Aggies should do well enough to win going away as long as they take care of the ball and don't get overconfident.  The Zips could surprise them, but that's not what they do.

My prediction

Utah State 24 Akron 6

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. BYU
December 19, 2016

Let me get this out of the way first.  Utah does not belong in the Las Vegas Bowl.  But without Devontae Booker, they weren't that attractive.  If Booker had remained healthy, Utah would probably be in the Alamo Bowl or perhaps even the Rose Bowl as they seem to have Stanford's number.  With Booker healthy against UCLA, Utah is at least in the Championship game.

That being said, this is a fierce rivalry, but it all depends on whether or not BYU's head is in the game.  It will be a close and fierce game if BYU's position coaches can properly prepare the players and can keep them focused.

But, we all know that Bronco Mendenhall is leaving Provo.  We all know that some of the assistant coaches are going with him.  We all know that the others who are going are worried about where they are going to work next year (Which means January).  We know the players are distracted.  And we all know how bad BYU looks when the team isn't prepared.  And the Utes, they are going to be prepared.

Yes, I know that I have dedicated more space to Akron than to this rivalry game.  The rivalry needed to take a hiatus.  People take it too personally.  This year, however, is not the time to do that.  It could be an ugly game.  After the game, please take a holiday fruitcake to your neighbor who roots for the other guys and bury the hatchet.  And don't take the weed whacker that you were going to give to your brother-in-law back to Lowes because Tanner Mangum says something insensitive after the game.  And shake hands with your Bishop on Sunday because he's still a good guy, even if he went to the other school.  When it comes to what matters most, and that is not football, both schools are pretty good.

My prediction all depends on whether or not the Cougars really show up.  Either way it's a Utah victory.  I will therefore make 2 predictions.  One close, and one not-so close.

If BYU shows up
Utah 21 BYU 19

If BYU does not show up
Utah 50 BYU 15

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