10 Sports Predictions for 2022

 The Sad

1. The Tour of Utah will be permanently terminated.

The Happy

2. New RSL ownership and the NWSL announces the return of the Utah Royals for 2023 season.

3. Salt Lake City awarded the 2034 Winter Olympic Games

4. Rio Tinto Stadium announced as site of the Women's College Cup for 2023

5. The Hawaii bowl is decertified after two consecutive cancellations and no Aloha Stadium.  This leaves BYU without a bowl contract for 2022. The Big 12 has Oklahoma in the playoff, and not otherwise having enough bowl eligible teams, the Big 12 allows BYU to play in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

6. Utah gets to play in the Rose Bowl again. (Notice that I did not say they would repeat at conference champion.)

7. Utah State plays in 2nd consecutive LA Bowl after repeating as MW championship

8. BYU, Utah State, Utah Valley and Weber State are in the NCAA tournament

The Controversial

9. The entire 2022 MLB baseball season is canceled due to the owner lockout.

10. Utah Jazz announce they will no longer be known as the Utah Jazz.  New owner Ryan Smith will rebrand with a new nickname and logo.

Southern Utah Parts Ways with Demario Warren

 After a 1-10 season is Cedar City, Demario Warren is now done at Southern Utah.  He had been the head coach in Cedar City for six seasons after Ed Lamb left to be the Assistant Head Coach at BYU.  Warren spent 14 years at SUU.

This is no surprise.  It was clear the program is heading in the wrong direction.  The Thunderbirds were 1-10 this year.  SUU is leaving the Big Sky Conference for the Western Athletic Conference next season and the new conference isn't much easier.  The WAC is also the home of the other school in the Southern part of Utah, namely the newly named Utah Tech, who will likely be the Thunderbird's new primary rival.

As far as who could replace Warren, there are some good options.  FCS programs in Utah do best when they get a coach who is already familiar with the state and the challenges of recruiting here and already has a relationship with the high school coaches.  This is what Weber State did by hiring Jay Hill who was an assistant at Utah.

In considering who might coach at Cedar City, a coordinator at a power-5 school like Utah is making north of 1 million.  Other assistants are likely making anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000.  The head coach at an FCS school likely makes around 250,000.  Ed Lamb, when he left Cedar City to be the assistant head coach at BYU, who is not yet a power-5 program, likely left a 200,000 salary behind for likely no more than 300,000--but this is my guess.  (BYU does not publicize their staff's salary.  They are a private institution and are not required to disclose it.)  Jay Hill at Weber State earns a reported 275,000 per year, about 90,000 is paid by sponsors.

An FCS program likely has a pool that includes the following coaches:

-Non-coordinator assistants from Power-5 schools.
-FBS coordinators and assistants
-Coordinators from other FCS schools
-Head coaches from Division II, Division III, NAIA and junior colleges
-Former head coaches from any level
-High school coaches

In naming names, keep in mind that I do not have any inside information and have no idea who the administration at Southern Utah has in mind.  This is simply my opinion.  Here are my options.

Frank Maile who was the interim coach at Utah State and now an assistant at Boise State.  I think he did a good job as the interim coach and a person who deserves a chance to be a head coach.  Frank Maile would likely leave Boise for Cedar City for even money.  According to sources in Boise, Maile's Salary is 260,000.

Colton Swan or Jim Harding who are assistants at Utah. Swan was once the defensive coordinator at Weber State.  Sharrieff  Shaw is the special teams coordinator, the same position Jay Hill had before he left Utah for Weber State.  Shaw may have to take a pay cut to go to Southern Utah.  Defense coordinator Morgan Scalley is likely still the head coach in waiting and is still being groomed to take over for Kyle Whittingham when he retires .  Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig would likely take a cut in pay to be the head coach in Cedar City.  Neither Scalley or Ludwig would consider coaching at the FCS level.

Fesi Sitake who is now the passing game coordinator at BYU.  Ilaisa Tuiaki, who is the defensive coordinator at BYU and SUU alum former SUU head guy Ed Lamb are probably names who people think will be considered.  Both would take a considerable pay cut to coach in Cedar City.  Sitake is probably the top Cougar assistant who would coach at SUU.  Other assistants who would probably take the head job in Cedar City are Tight Ends coach Steve Clark or linebackers coach Kevin Clune.

Matt Hammer, Grant Duff or Joe Dale from Weber State.  Hammer is the offensive coordinator while Duff and Dale are the co-defensive coordinators.

If I was SUU athletic director, Debbie Corum, this is who I would consider:

Frank Maile
Colton Swan
Jim Harding
Fesi Sitake
Steve Clark
Matt Hammer
Grant Duff
Joe Dale

Is Weber State Ready for FBS Football?

 As Conference USA struggles for survival, the WAC is proposing to bring schools from the FCS level to restore football at the FBS level.  Weber State may be one of those schools.

In terms of facilities and sports success, no one doubts that Weber State can compete at the FBS level.  The question is if Northern Utah has the population to support 2 FBS programs, with Utah State and Weber State.

In my research, I found it takes a population of 1 million to support an FBS program.  Even if you are in the shadow of a power-5 program, having a population of 1 million is usually enough to have the local recruiting base to support your program.  If we exclude Salt Lake County and Utah County, let's look at the projected growth from Utah State's and Weber State's area for the next 40 years, then the state of Utah as a whole.  Here is my source for Utah.  Here is my source for Idaho.

Utah State's area is Box Elder, Cache and Rich Counties in Utah with Bear Lake, Franklin and Oneida Counties in Idaho

The 2020 population for these counties is:

Box Elder--58,000
Cache--133,000
Rich--2,500
Bear Lake--6,300
Franklin--14,000
Oneida--4,500

Currently, the population in this area is 218,300.  You will notice that if you compare my source for Utah with the 2020 Census listed in Wikipedia that the population is Cache county is already much higher than originally projected in 2017.  This is not just a serious underestimate, but likely the effect of pandemic and people working at home who can live where they want.  (Why not Logan?)  But that is not quite 1 million.  Projects in the next 50 years show this area growing by over 120%.  That is mostly in 

Ogden's area is Davis, Weber and Morgan Counties.  The 2020 population for these areas are:

Davis: 363,000
Morgan: 12,000
Weber: 262,000

Currently, the population is 637,000.  It is projected to surpass 1 million after 2070.  However, again, given the date of my source, it may happen sooner.  There is plenty of room for growth in Weber County.  It's growth rate will be about half of the Utah State University area.  That is because there are people already there.

I have said that it takes about 1 million to make a successful FBS program, neither area has or will have 1,000,000 in the near future.  There are some unique things about the State of Utah to mention.  First, let's consider BYU's recruiting area.

BYU recruits mostly among members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, which has about 7 million members in the United States.  They do not exclusively recruit in their own back yard.  Nor does every Latter-day Saint community consider themselves primary BYU fans in the way that Roman Catholic communities would consider themselves Notre Dame fans. In Utah Valley, however, BYU has plenty of young men that they can't recruit because they don't have the room for them.  In fact, many in the PAC-12 have taken advantage of this. BYU has and uses a recruiting reach that the other schools in the state do not have.  Being a member of the Big 12 will give BYU access to a pool of recruits in Texas, with only a fraction of those who are members of the Church.

Utah County currently has a population of 659,000 and is expected to catch Salt Lake County by the 2050s.  Not quite a million there, but they will add 1 million in the future. 

Salt Lake County is the only county in Utah that has a population over 1 million.  Currently it is 1,183,000.  It is projected to reach 1.6 million by 2050.  As a member of the PAC 12, Utah has access to recruiting on the West Coast and in Arizona and in Colorado.  Other PAC 12 schools come to Utah to recruit.  Highly touted recruits in the Salt Lake area have ended up at Oregon, Stanford and USC.

Utah State has thrived, and Weber State has thrived at the FCS level on recruits in the state of Utah that BYU and Utah have passed over.  Utah's overall population is currently just above 3,000,000.  It is projected to hit 4,000,000 by the end of this decade.  The growth may slow after Utah hits 4,000,000 as by then the Wasatch Front may be full, building up instead of out.  Then the growth will go to the ring counties: Box Elder, Cache, Morgan, Summit, Wasatch, Sanpete, Juab and Tooele counties.  Utah may not hit 5,000,000 until the 2050s.  There will also be serious water, pollution and transportation issues to address before Utah hits 4,000,000 so that there will be a quality of life in the state by the time the population reaches 5,000,000.  Utah should do what it can to avoid being another California, but that discussion, in detail, does not belong here.

Certainly, in the 2030s Weber State should be able to succeed as a FBS level.  But if they make the move now, they may struggle for a few years to find that success.  But they likely would not transition until the middle of the decade.  That may be just enough time for the program to prepare.  Jay Hill is certainly the right man at the helm right now to accomplish that feat, if Weber State can hold on to him.  If Weber State moves to the FBS in 2024, I would expect a bowl game 6-7 years later, in 2031.  But that would be under normal circumstances.  If they end up being part of a conference with mostly transitioning programs, they would likely find success sooner rather than later.  In other words, lose four non-conference games but possibly win a conference championship.

If Weber State fans see WSU make the move, patience would be the key.  The years after Ron McBride retired were trying for WSU fans.  It certainly will not be THAT bad.  (Five consecutive 2-win seasons).

The knee-jerk reaction to a Weber State transition is that Utah does not have the population for another FBS school.  The real counter argument is that Utah does not have the population for another FBS school, yet.  But they will sooner rather than later.  Now may be Weber State's time to move.

Proposal to save Conference USA and bring the WAC back to FBS status

Ten FBS conferences and the latest conference realignment has hit a brick wall.  Conference USA is now down to three schools.  UTEP, Louisiana Tech and Florida International.  It seems the conference is lost unless a bunch of FCS schools wish to re-classify.

Conference USA is losing six schools to the American Athletic Conference, three schools to the Sun Belt Conference and two schools to the Mid America Conference, leaving them with only three.  Before the last two schools, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky announced they are leaving to the MAC, there were plans to build Conference USA back up by adding New Mexico State and Liberty, who are now independent, with UConn as a football-only member and adding Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State from the FCS.  The latest plans from the MAC have been a monkey-wrench in the pile.

The WAC has come up with a proposal to reclassify as FBS, bring schools who want to reclassify with them and restore 11 FBS conference.  There are schools that want to reclassify, and those have the resources to do it, but they are all over the country.  I do not know all of the schools, yet who will be involved or how it will yet work out.  There are schools in the West who have the market and the facilities to reclassify to the FBS, but they are no where near Jacksonville State, which is in Eastern Alabama.

The WAC proposal is simple.  Bring up enough schools from FCS to FBS to have 11 FBS conferences, but the Eastern ones will go to Conference USA presumably with Louisiana Tech, Liberty and UConn.  While the WAC rebuilds with UTEP and New Mexico State. Presumably Schools like Southern Utah and Dixie (soon to be Utah Tech) that are not ready to reclassify will join other FCS conference.  Southern Utah and Dixie, in particular would return to the Big Sky Conference.

In the west, other than Idaho, there are five schools, currently in the Big Sky Conference, that could reclassify and be part of the WAC.  They are UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland State, Eastern Washington and Weber State.  Montana could, but would have to do so without Montana State, which they wont.  You would still have Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, Southern Utah, Dixie State, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado in the Big Sky Conference.  The BSC could also add Alaska Anchorage if UAA wants to add Football and become a Division I school.

The New WAC Could then be UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Sacramento State, Portland State, Eastern Washington and Weber State.  New bowl games could be certified in Sacramento, Portland, and San Louis Obispo.

In addition to Sam Houston State, and Jacksonville State, Conference USA could add Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Georgia Southern, William and Mary, James Madison and Richmond.  New Bowls could be certified in Huntsville, Texas and Richmond.  

The schools I have suggested, may not be the ones that make the jump.  However, these schools have the market and facilities to make the jump and be successful at the FBS level.  They have all had some degree of success at the FCS level in recent years.

This would allow all existing FCS conferences to remain in tact without a lot of continued realignment, which is what is needed at this point.

C-USA, the next steps

All six teams that the American is adding are coming from Conference USA.  When I heard about it, I began feeling sorry for UTEP.  Then things got worse, it appears that Marshall and Old Dominion will leave for the Sun Belt conference.  This would leave Conference USA with UTEP, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech and Florida International.  But there is hope on the horizon.  

New Mexico State and Liberty will be taken from the pool of FBS independents.  While FCS top schools Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State appear to be transitioning to keep Conference USA at least 10 schools.  While there may be others coming to allow the conference to break into divisions.  Those that could include Missouri State and Southern Illinois, but only the schools name for the founding fathers of Texas have been mentioned by others.

For FBS independents, this would leave only four.  Army, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Notre Dame, with BYU joining the Big 12 in 2023.

At the FCS level, Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State are set to help bring football back to the WAC.  (New Mexico State has their non-football programs in that conference.) However, the WAC is still left with Lamar, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, Abilene Christian, Dixie State, Southern Utah and California Baptist with Utah Valley and Cal State Bakersfield as non-football schools.  There are several Division II schools that could transition to Division I that would help the WAC remain as a football conference.

American Expansion

 I was trying to get back to regular posts on this blog, but there was another professional interruption.  For now, let me just say that I have plenty of time to devote to this blog, at least for the next few weeks.

The news I wish to discuss is the expansion of the American Athletic Conference.  They will be adding 6 to go to 14 members for football.  Two of the six additions are not a surprise to me: Texas San Antonio and Alabama Birmingham.  The other four took me by surprise as they are in larger markets, but have not exactly been a recent success on the gridiron.  Those schools are North Texas, Rice, UNC Charlotte and Florida Atlantic.  While this does give the AAC access to large markets and recruiting bases, it is not exactly ideal.

From worst to best  

North Texas is in Denton, Texas, which is in the north portion of the DFW metroplex.  This is a metro area the AAC already has a foothold in with SMU.  I have to wonder if this addition really adds anything to the conference or is this pro-active add just in case the Big 12 invites SMU.  (Considering the history of the Ponies, don't expect that to happen-BTW)

Florida Atlantic only recently started playing football and for much of the 20-00s, was consistently considered on of the worst teams in the FBS.  They have improved since getting their own stadium.  Sure, it gives the conference a foothold in South Florida, a place where the Miami Hurricanes dominate.  But with the number of people who live in Miami, there should be more than enough left-overs for everyone.

Rice is in the Houston area.  There is plenty to go around there.  However, Rice is a small university and has a small alumni base.  Doesn't bode well for the streaming potential.

UNC Charlotte has not only not been playing FBS football for long, but football period.  And yes, there are Power-5 programs in the state of North Carolina, the research quad is in the Raleigh area.  (UNC, NC State, Wake Forest and Duke).  This would be a better move if Charlotte had a better track record, or any track record to speak of.  But it isn't terrible.

For those of you unfamiliar with history, UAB used to play at Legion Field, which sometimes the Iron Bowl took place.  (The annual game between Alabama and Auburn.)  Birmingham is the largest city in Alabama, closer to Tuscaloosa than it is to Auburn, but far enough away from either to be considered neutral..  That also translates to not that close to either.  Kids that grow up in Alabama are going to pick either Auburn or Alabama, those that do not still have a good choice of schools.  It would be nice to have one close to home.

UTSA is the best add for the American.  San Antonio is an hour away from Waco and Austin.  It's a growing community where high school football is big.  It's a good recruiting base for the AAC.  The MWC should be kicking themselves for not getting UTSA on board, and it is a move that I think they will regret.

The Future of the Mountain West Conference

Often, it pays to wait to post these.  Word is that Air Force and Colorado State have said no to the American Athletic Conference.  The AAC was attempting to get a foothold in the growing Front Range market by taking its second and third most popular college programs.

There are programs that would be happy to join the AAC to replace Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston.  Those include Alabama Birmingham and others.  There are programs that would consider this move a upward move.  Moving from the MW to the AAC is a lateral move.

The Mountain West Conference is not without threat.  However, some of the moves that others have suggested, like inviting Gonzaga, are pipe dreams.  The MW offers nothing to strong basketball-only programs like Gonzaga and Creighton that they don't already have.  The Mountain West Conference is not without threat.  Most likely, Boise State may end up getting an invite to either the PAC-12 or Big 12.  BYU needs a travel partner in their neighborhood.  San Diego State is getting stronger.  Air Force is strong in football, but not in other sports.  The American could make a move to bring all three service academies together.

It would help the MW to look at programs that could enhance the conference now.  Don't wait for Boise State to be invited elsewhere.  Look to expanding to 14 now.  However, the MW is like the NBA team picking in the middle of the draft.  They will have to look for potential.  The programs that they add may not be successful on the field or court today, but could be in the future if they make the right moves.  In my opinion, don't look for the next BYU or the next Boise State when the next San Diego State is available.

By the next San Diego State, look at the following: 1. The University is in a relatively large city.  2.  The City has a major league sports program.  3.  There is not another FBS program in the city.  There may be a Power-5 program nearby, but not in the same city.

Obviously, Texas San Antonio is the program I refer to.  Beyond that, since the AAC raided the MW, the MW can return the favor and try to poach SMU.  Beyond that, the best the MW can do is promote FCS programs such as UC Davis, Sacramento State or Portland State.  But there are no real perfect solutions for the conference.  No wonder there is talk about basketball-only expansion or perhaps killing the conference and starting over. But I should also note that such talk is coming from official sources.

Obviously the basketball talk revolves around Gonzaga.  I don't know that the Mountain West Conference has anything to offer the Zags that they don't get from the West Coast Conference other than a collection of real college arenas.  However, the main revenue source now-a-days is becoming online streaming.  A half-full arena in Laramie isn't going to generate much more revenue than a streamed game from Malibu.  Also to be considered, since BYU left the MW, every school is public.  Gonzaga is a better fit with other religious schools than they are otherwise.

Now that I have mentioned it, let me get to the afore briefly mentioned Big Sky Conference and others.  You may or may not be curious why I have not mentioned the other usual suspects like UTEP, New Mexico State or North Texas or FCS stalwarts like North Dakota State or Montana.  First of all, as I said, if you have to gamble, which this is, you want to gamble with house money.  It may be easier to get the next San Diego State on a gamble than the next Boise State.  Missoula is a nice town and so is Fargo, but both are a long way from catching Boise.  Fargo is half the size of Boise and Missoula about 1/5 the size.  

Yes, market size matters, but not the number of TV viewers or computers.  A group of five college needs a recruiting base.  No matter where you are, the best football players are going to the Power-5 schools.  There needs to be enough left over for you.  If you are in Fargo, and the top high school star goes to Minnesota, you don't have a lot of locals left to choose from.  Your recruiting options become fewer and father in between.  The odds are better in San Antonio.

If you need an example, look at Utah State.  The Aggies are good now.  In fact, the State of Utah now has three very good football programs.  A power-five and a soon-to-be power-five and a group of five program that no one really wants to play anymore.  It didn't used to be that way.  From the end of the second world war to the 1990s, only one program in Utah was good.  Then Utah's population hit 2 million, Utah and BYU were good.  When Utah's population hit 3 million, there was room for Utah State to be good too.  There are enough high schools athletes in Utah to see the occasional loss to Oregon or Stanford and have enough to make BYU and Utah deep enough to compete at the power 5 level and see Utah State be a force in the MWC.  

In San Antonio, there are enough kids for Texas, Texas A&M and Baylor and still give the Road Runners a decent team.  That is what the MWC needs in its future.  Even if they have to go to Sacramento to get it.