Utah Valley Snubbed.

In spite of 47 wins, a 32-game winning streak and wins over ranked opponents, the Utah Valley University Wolverine baseball team has been snubbed by the NCAA tournament.  UVU belongs to the Great West Conference for almost all of their sports, and that conference does not have an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

With all of the success playing baseball, the Wolverines were only ranked with a 72 RPI.  The RPI for baseball is similar to what is it for basketball and football.  You beat who you are supposed to beat, your ranking remains were it is.  If you beat someone you are not supposed to beat, your ranking will go up.  If you lose to someone you should beat, the ranking goes down.

Where the season and the NCAA bid was lost for the Wolverines was in the early season.  They had one game against Arizona, which they lost.  They lost 2 out of 3 to Nevada.  UVU was swept by CS Fullerton.  Those are the games that UVU needs to have back if they wanted to get into the NCAA tournament.  Shortly after this slow start to the season, they split a series at Arizona State.  Like many college baseball teams from northern climbs, UVU began with 17 games on the road.  A fact that college baseball must address.

Their streak included wins against BYU and Utah, who both were not as good this season as they have been in the past.  The only real impressive win in the streak was a game against Arizona.  The rest of the streak was conference games, neither school that UVU played in conference had an RPI above 200.  A team with an RPI of 72 is supposed to beat a team with an RPI of 200.  The streak itself was impressive, but only one game in that streak was against a team that would improve a team's RPI.  UVU's Strength of schedule was a not so impressive 262 in the country.

Hence the Wolverines are on the outside of the NCAA tournament looking in.  Those who are trying to keep the WAC together, at least as a non-football conference, should take note.  UVU has not only been successful in baseball in 2012, but also in men's basketball.  The WAC, which currently sits at 5 schools could maintain their automatic bid status with just 2 more schools.  Certainly UVU would accept if invited, as the WAC has something that the Wolverine program really wants and needs.  WAC Champion, New Mexico State where their RPI of 39 was good enough for a #2 seed in the Tuscon Sub Regional.  Evidence that this is not a perfect system.  But an automatic bid will fix what kept UVU out this year.

Utah Valley University Season Report
Strength of Schedule
RPI

5th and 6th best conferences...How they come together.

To determine what the 2nd tier of college football will look like, let's look at who is left.


Left in the ACC...4 will be left.
-Duke University...
-University of North Carolina...
-Wake Forrest...
-University of Syracuse...


Left in the Big East...9 football members left
Louisville...
South Florida...
Central Florida...
Houston...
Southern Methodist...
Memphis...
Temple...
Boise State...
Navy...


FBS Independents...2 left


Brigham Young...
Army...


Also without a conference


Idaho
New Mexico State


Also available


Conference USA


Alabama Birmingham...Birmingham, AL is the 50th largest metro in the US.
East Carolina...Greenville, NC is the 220th largest metro in the US
Marshall...Huntington, WV is not part of a large metro area.
Southern Mississippi...Hattisburg, MS is part of the Biloxi, MS metro, the 185th largest in the US
Rice...See Houston
UTEP...El Paso, TX is the 65th largest metro in the US.
Tulane...New Orleans is the 46th largest metro in the US.
Tulsa...Tulsa is the 54th largest metro in the US.
UNC Charlotte...Charlotte is the 33rd largest metro in the US
FIU...see Miami
Louisiana Tech...Rushton, LA is not part of a large metro
Old Dominion...Norfolk, VA is the 36th largest metro in the US.
UTSA...San Antonio is the 24th largest metro in the US.


Mountain West Conference


Air Force...Colorado Springs, CO is the 81st largest metro in the US.
Colorado State...Fort Collins, CO is the 155th largest metro in the US.  (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Denver metro.)
UNLV...Las Vegas, NV is the 30th largest metro in the US.
UNM...Albuquerque, NM is the 57th largest metro in the US.
Wyoming...Laramie, WY is not part of a large metro
Fresno State...Fresno, CA is the 55th largest metro in the US
Nevada...Reno is the 115th largest metro in the US
Hawaii...Honolulu is the 53rd largest metro in the US
San Jose State...San Jose CA is the 31st largest metro in the US
Utah State...Logan, UT is the 304th largest metro in the US.


Finally, FCS programs that may be ready for promotion to the FBS if the right conference situation is available.


Villanova
Georgetown
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Tennessee Tech
Montana
Montana State
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Portland State


New ACC--focus will be on men's basketball.  And this will still be a beast of a basketball conference, this conference could still earn 5-6 NCAA bids and produce a #1 seed or two each year.


-Duke...
-North Carolina...
-Wake Forrest...
-Syracuse...
-Louisville...
-Memphis...
-Temple...
-Army (Football Only)
-Navy (Football Only)
-Villanova (Promote football to FCS, play at PGP park in Chester, PA).
-Georgetown (Basketball Only, but can become the 11th football school if they decide to promote football program.  Can use FedEx field as a home stadium or partner with DC United for a new stadium).
-Seton Hall (Basketball Only)
-St. Johns (Basketball Only)
-Providence (Basketball Only)


Note: Marquette and dePaul join the Missouri Valley Conference.


New Continental Divide Conference to focus on being the 5th best football conference to begin with.  They will hope to give the big 4 a run for their money.


West Division
Air Force 
Boise State 
BYU (Football Only--Rest of sports remain in WCC)
Fresno State 
Hawaii (Football Only--Rest of sports remain in Big West)
Utah State


East Division
Central Florida
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
South Florida
Southern Mississippi


Perhaps, the conference will be two different conferences that combine for football and are two separate conferences for all other sports.


Western Non-football schools


CS Bakersfield
Denver
Seattle
Utah Valley


Eastern Non-Football Schools


UT Arlington
Oral Roberts


Replacements for C-USA


Appalachian State


Replacements for MWC


New Mexico State
Idaho
Cal Poly


IF MWC decides to go to 12...


Montana 
Montana State

 The Big 12 and SEC announced that their champions will play a bowl game.  It is believed by some experts, like Dennis Dodd at CBS, that the Rose bowl between this new bowl game are setting themselves up to be the play-in games for the new national championship.  This shuts out the ACC and Big East.  This also, for now, shuts out BYU and Notre Dame and the service academies.  This also shuts out powers like Boise State.

This is a big power grab for college football and college sports and some believe that it represents the doomsday scenario that many have predicted.  Dodd, when appearing on KSL-Sports Beat this evening stated that he believes that the Big 12 will grab Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech/Miami and Notre Dame, and he believes that ND will reluctantly will accept membership in the Big 12.

Now, let's thing about the logic of this scenario for a moment.  If the Big 10, PAC 12, Big 12 and SEC each expand to 16, you have 14 slots left to fill.  You have a lot of schools jockying to become part of one of the Big 4 conferences.  Who would get in and who would be left out?

Chances are, someone like Boston College, one of 2 FBS schools in the 10th largest Metro area in the country, may end up permanently outside of a chance to play for college football national championship.  There are at least 7 congressional districts that are part of the Greater Boston area...that is enough to be half an entire committee of congress.  Do you think Congress will be motivated enough to do something about it now?

That is hard to say.  But the schools that will be taken to be part of the elite 64 will be those, if these conference commissioners are smart, that will cause the fewest political ripples.  Therefore, I am listing those who are left to pluck by their metro size.  A large metro that a school has to themselves not only means more local advertising dollars, but means more power in Congress.  The more congressional seats these 4 power conferences pick up, the more likely any bill to stop this madness will fall upon the ears of apathetic representatives.  This is why Boston College would get in, but BYU would be left out.  Why San Diego State may get chosen over Boise State.  (Read this who post before you get upset, please, Bronco fans. :-))

Here is a list of all of the college football powers, and their metro areas, that are currently on the outside looking in.

Left in the ACC...12 will be left.
Boston College...Boston is the 10th largest Metro in the US)
Duke University...Durham, NC (Raleigh/Durham) is the 47th largest Metro in the US and is shared with the University of North Carolina also of the ACC.
Georgia Tech...Atlanta, GA is the 9th largest Metro in the US, but shared with UGA of the SEC.
University of Maryland...College Park, MD is part of the Washington, DC Metro which is the 7th largest in the US...Shared with the University of Virginia also of the ACC and the US Naval Academy poised to join the Big East.
University of Miami (Maybe)...Coral Gables, FL near Miami, FL part of the 8th largest metro in the US and shared with FIU.
University of North Carolina...Chapel Hill, NC...See Duke, above
University of Virginia...Charlottesville, VA See Maryland, above
Wake Forrest...Winston-Salem, NC is in the Greensboro, NC metro and is the 71st largest metro in the US.
University of Pittsburgh...Pittsburgh is the 22nd largest metro in the US, but is shared with Penn State of the big 10.
University of Syracuse...Syracuse is the 80th largest metro in the US.

Left in the Big East
Cincinnati...Cincinnati is the 27th largest metro in the US.
Connecticut...which is near New York City, the largest metro in the US and also near the headquarters of the WWL, meaning ESPN.
Louisville...Louisville, KY is the 42nd largest metro in the US.
Rutgers...New Brunswick, NJ which is withing spitting distance of New York City.
South Florida...Tampa, FL is the 18th largest metro in the US
Central Florida...Orlando, FL is the 26th largest metro in the US
Houston...Houston is the 5th largest metro in the US, but this is shared with Texas A&M of the SEC and Rice University of Conference-USA.
Southern Methodist...Dallas, TX is the 4th largest metro in the US, but this is shared with TCU of the Big 12
Memphis...Memphis, TN is the 41st largest metro in the US.
Temple...Philadelphia, PA is the 6th largest metro in the US.
Boise State...Boise, ID is the 85th largest metro in the US.
San Diego State...San Diego, CA is the 17th largest metro in the US.

FBS Independents

Brigham Young...Provo, UT is the 97th largest metro in the US (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Salt Lake City metro.)
Army...West Point, NY is part of the New York Metro

Conference USA

Alabama Birmingham...Birmingham, AL is the 50th largest metro in the US.
East Carolina...Greenville, NC is the 220th largest metro in the US
Marshall...Huntington, WV is not part of a large metro area.
Southern Mississippi...Hattisburg, MS is part of the Biloxi, MS metro, the 185th largest in the US
Rice...See Houston
UTEP...El Paso, TX is the 65th largest metro in the US.
Tulane...New Orleans is the 46th largest metro in the US.
Tulsa...Tulsa is the 54th largest metro in the US.
UNC Charlotte...Charlotte is the 33rd largest metro in the US
FIU...see Miami
Louisiana Tech...Rushton, LA is not part of a large metro
Old Dominion...Norfolk, VA is the 36th largest metro in the US.
UTSA...San Antonio is the 24th largest metro in the US.

Mountain West Conference

Air Force...Colorado Springs, CO is the 81st largest metro in the US.
Colorado State...Fort Collins, CO is the 155th largest metro in the US.  (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Denver metro.)
UNLV...Las Vegas, NV is the 30th largest metro in the US.
UNM...Albuquerque, NM is the 57th largest metro in the US.
Wyoming...Laramie, WY is not part of a large metro
Fresno State...Fresno, CA is the 55th largest metro in the US
Nevada...Reno is the 115th largest metro in the US
Hawaii...Honolulu is the 53rd largest metro in the US
San Jose State...San Jose CA is the 31st largest metro in the US
Utah State...Logan, UT is the 304th largest metro in the US.

I am not going to list the Sun Belt Conference, the MAC or the two schools remaining in the WAC because I do not consider any of these school to be serious contenders for one of the 14 remaining elite-64 schools.  Looking at metro size, and when I say that, I mean political clout...here is who the last 14 may be.

SEC--2 openings left

Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech

Big 12--Assuming they take Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame--but lose Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State but not Texas Tech.  5 Openings left

Maryland
Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Tulane

Big 10--4 openings left

Rutgers
UConn
Pittsburgh
Boston College

PAC-12--4 openings left

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
San Diego State

So, now BSU fans can write me upsetting emails.  But before you do, remember, this is based upon market size and political power and money.  Not upon who really plays the best football, or who has the best schools or who turns out the best young men or tradition.  There will be complaints and maybe even congressional hearings, but again I emphasize that the powers that be in college football want this to fall upon apathetic ears in Congress.  I give you an 85% chance that no bill to stop this would even make it out of committee in Congress.

Why San Diego State...to keep the California Legislature and the California congressional delegation happy.
Why Tulane...to keep the New Orleans Congressional Delegation happy.

Yes, I know that San Diego State would become the Vanderbilt of the PAC-12 conference.  You do not need to spit your ire on me for that.  I know that I have just upset 80% of my readers.  It's the reality of College Football right now.

Where will the Mountain West go Next?

The dominoes of conference realignment appear to be falling again.  Right now it appears that Boise State is preparing to leave the Big East at the altar and return to the MWC.  And the Big 12 appears to poised to raid the ACC to get some southern cooking in the conference.  If this happens, the ACC will likely raid the Big East again, causing that conference to fall apart.  That would leave Houston, SMU and Memphis without a conference.  Who knows if the MWC is safe from further expansion from other conferences.  The MWC seems vulnerable to lose some schools from the east.

Without the WAC to raid, where will the MWC go for new members.  Here is a capsule of who is available and what it will take to get them into the MWC.


Idaho and New Mexico Sate

Idaho has two problems that will keep them forever from the MWC.  The first is their market, which is something they can do little about.  The second are their facilities.  They need a comitment to improve their facilities to really get a good look from the MWC.  Idaho will need to find a way to get a new bigger stadium to get a serious look from the MWC.

New Mexico State came close to getting into the MWC last time, and their sister campus in Albuquerque fought long and hard for the Aggies.  There are two main problems that NMSU has that make the MWC shudder.  One is their market and the other is their lack of academic standing.  For years, NMSU has not made the USNWR rankings.  This has to change.  NMSU needs to make a commitment to improving academic programs.

Montana and Montana State

Montana and Montana State have the facilities, but they do not sponsor enough sports to move to the FBS. This will take a financial commitment.  But otherwise, these schools are a good fit for the MWC.

Portland State

Portland State needs to reinstate sports programs they have canceled over the years.  They have a nice stadium for their football programs to call home.  If Stott Center is too small for the MWC, PSU could lease the old Veterans Memorial Colosseum for men's basketball.  PSU is up to 14 sports programs and could add baseball, swimming and/or gymnastics to compete in the MWC.  They are in a city that is 81 miles from the nearest FBS school and should have no trouble competing for fans.

Sacramento State/UC Davis

Sacramento State has the facilities to compete in the MWC and enough sports, where UC Davis only lacks a football stadium.  The Kings are about to abandon their arena for the greener (money-wise) pastures of Anaheim.  The Aggies and the Hornets men's programs could even lease the arena together.  Both have enough sports programs and UC Davis is one of the best academic programs in the west outside of the PAC-12.

How would sharing the old Arco work for UC Davis and Sac Sate?  UC Davis would get the arena on Thursday and Saturday Afternoon.  Sac State would get the arena on Saturday night and Monday.  One team comes to town and plays UCD on Thrusday and Sac State on Saturday.  The other team would play UCD on Saturday and Sac State on Monday.

About the Sacramento Kings moving...there was a deal for a new arena in Sacramento, but the owners rejected it.  There is a real nice documentary about it here.  Watch it until the end.

Cal Poly

San Louis Obisbo would be a nice place for an annual bowl game.  And all that this school needs to do for FBS inclusion is to expand their football stadium.

Conference Realignment...The Big Sky so far Untouched.

Updated July 15, 2012

The is one in a series of posts that examines the viability of Idaho remaining at the FBS level.  One assumption is that the Big Sky Conference will remain untouched by continued conference expansion.  The purpose of this post is to point out that this is unlikely.  This was changed after further research into the sports programs of Portland State.

The WAC is finished, but conference realignment is not.  Idaho may remain an FBS team after all.  So far, the Big Sky Conference has remained untouched by the conference realignment mess, but do not expect that to remain the case before the dust settles.

Montana, Montana State, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland State and Sacramento State may remain targets of FBS conferences looking for schools willing to move up to the FBS level.  Here are some scenarios that could touch the Big Sky Conference.  In any scenario where the Mountain West Conference is raided further, the MWC is likely now, with the WAC gone, will look to the Big Sky Conference for replacements.

1.  Boise State/Big 12 cause the Big East to collapse.    What has caused this problem is the collapse of the WAC.  BSU was going to place their non-football sports in the august conference, but if one more school leaves and there is not any further expansion, there will not be a WAC to for them to place their Olympic sports.  Reportedly,  Boise State is now in negotiations with the Big West Conference to put their non-football programs there.

Another possibility is that the Big East loses Cincinnati and Louisville to the Big 12 or that they lose Rutgers and UConn to the ACC in a 16-team expansion of that conference.  The Big East is likely to look to either C-USA or to the MWC to remain viable. The reason I say this is because New Mexico and Wyoming have basketball programs that are stronger than East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa or Southern Mississippi, those schools still in Conference USA that would likely be under consideration.  The Big East is a basketball conference first, and they would rather look for programs that keep their basketball prowess.  With San Diego state in tow, even UNLV becomes a possibility.

Another possibility is that the football members of the Big East decide not to remain together.  The Eastern half...whatever remains...would raid C-USA, the MAC and the CAA for membership (U Mass, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Delaware, Rhode Island, JMU for starters), where the western half could add some of the other western members of C-USA and maybe take on some members of the Mountain West.  Think about that...Boise State, SMU, Houston, Memphis and San Diego State...are they not a better core for a new conference than those left in the MWC or C-USA?  Would they not easily draw out Fresno State, New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV?  Perhaps Hawaii as well?  Perhaps Tulsa, UTEP, Rice and Tulane could be considered as well.  Maybe they could even lure BYU out of independence.

In this scenario, the core of the MWC: Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming, represent stability that the WAC never had in it's last days.

2.  BYU is spurned by the Big 12, gives up on independence and forms a new conference.  BYU does not have the WAC to fall back on, which was likely part of the plan when BYU withdrew from the MWC.  Of course Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii were part of the WAC back then.  BYU is not likely to go back to the MWC as there is still enough bad blood between BYU and some remaining MWC members to block BYU's inclusion.  (Although a Wyoming alum in my family tells me that Wyoming and BYU are mending fences.)  And even though there is no mtn, the TV situation in the MWC is not settled and still not to the liking of the BYU administration.

But who would join BYU in a new venture?  Look to those 5 western members of the Big East.  Also look at Hawaii and Utah State, those who appear on BYU's schedule every season.

I do not think that the Mountain West is in danger of folding as I once did, as long as they can keep a core like Colorado State and Wyoming.  The MWC and C-USA are linked, and in reality, the MWC is still better off than the MWC.  They could still lure UTEP and perhaps Rice and Tulsa away if C-USA is again raided from the east and loses East Carolina and Southern Mississippi.  The only "mid-major" conference that is more viable than the MWC right now is probably the MAC.  The Sun Belt is still the main target of C-USA should they need more expansion.

The MWC however, does not have a lot of options for expansion among current FBS programs.  If they keep Hawaii, then what is really the reality of adding Tulsa, Rice or Tulane.  Travel may not be an issue for a conference with Big East-like revenue, but it is an issue for the MWC.  Traveling from Honolulu to New Orleans could eat up a travel budget quickly, even if it is just for football.  That kind of expansion could push Hawaii into independence, as this was the main reason Hawaii left the WAC.

This is just the kind of scenario Idaho and New Mexico State are hoping for.  After Idaho and New Mexico State, where does the MWC go?  UTEP is the only other school in the MWC footprint at the FCS level.  After these options are exhausted, then it will be time to raid the Big Sky Conference.

Again, the candidates are Montana and Montana State because of their recent successes at the FCS level, followed by the bigger-market programs in the Big Sky: Portland State, Sacramento State, UC Davis and Cal Poly.  The last three on the radar are likely Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona and Weber State.  And this is the likely order.

Weber State has the facilities, but there are already 3 FBS programs in Utah, and it will be 15-20 years before the state will have the population to support another.  Utah really needs a population of 3.6 million before WSU would be viable as an FBS program...it takes about 900,000 to support a modern FBS program.  When you think about it, Utah State struggled until Utah's population hit 2.7 million a couple of years ago.  There are now enough local recruits for BYU, Utah and Utah State.  That was not the case before.  And when Utah State was successful in the 1970s and 1980s, either BYU or Utah was struggling.  At the current rate of growth, Utah will hit that mark in 2024-2027.  Weber State will succeed as an FBS program once BYU, Utah and Utah State have their choice of local recruits and there are still enough for Weber.  Look for the Weber program, however, to get stronger at the FCS level over the next few years (and SUU as well) and more quality local recruits get passed over by the existing FBS programs in Utah.

Northern Arizona lives in a state that could support another FBS program, but they are isolated from the population centers in their state.  If they were 100 miles closer to Phoenix, they would have an easier time getting crowds to their games, and getting quality players from the greater Phoenix metro.  But that location can't be helped.  Personally, I think being a stone's throw from the Grand Canyon and Las Vegas is not being used enough by the NAU marketing department, but that is just me.  "Come see the game, get away for the weekend" could be a good marketing slogan for the Jacks, but they would need some local travel agency to create packages to make it work.  But Flagstaff and the rest of Northern Arizona may see a mini-boom as people continue to work away from the office and can be productive working at home.  The quality of recruits into NAU may improve in the future.  NAU is closer to Las Vegas than they are to Phoenix.  As Las Vegas grows, NAU becomes a viable alternative to UNLV.

Eastern Washington is in a similar situation to Northern Arizona, except that they are close to Spokane.  However, it is only a medium-sized market...about 600,000 or so, but growing.  EWU also has a small student-body, which translates to a small alumni base.  However, that has not been a reason for SMU, Rice and Tulsa to reclassify to the FCS.  EWU will continue to be a strong FCS program in the coming years.  Perhaps the northern Idado, eastern Washington area will see a population mini-boom similar to what is expected in Flagstaff as people who are not tied to commuting everyday to the office begin to leave Portland and Seattle for smaller communities and fewer headaches of city life.

UC Davis and Cal Poly have the sports programs and the academic reputation and the market, but do not have the facilities and their state is broke.  They are good options, but not immediate ones.  If either school could come up with the money to expand their stadia, then they should rocket to the top of the list.  But that would have to be a completely private venture as California has been hit rather hard by the current economic recession as slow recovery.  Should fortunes change in the near future, Cal-Poly and UC Davis jump ahead of Montana, Montana State and Portland State. Currently, these programs are good alternatives for young men who may not be quite good enough for the NFL and not quite smart enough or rich enough for Harvard.  Can't think of a better school to get a good education than one of these two schools at any level that participates in College Football.

Sacramento State has the sports programs and the facilities, but not the recent performance.  Sac State would likely end up in the cellar of the MWC in all sports for a long time if they were to move up.  Sacramento State needs to work on improving their on the field performance, especially in football and basketball, before they look at jumping to the next level.  If they improve their performance, they will find that it will be easier to draw crowds.  Look at how well the Sacramento Kings and Minor League teams are supported in Sac-town.  If the Hornets could be consistent winners in the field, they would be consistent winners at the gate and hard for the MWC to pass up.

Portland State has the market and the facilities and may be added to a stable FBS conference ahead of the Montana schools.  The reason is that the MWC may only have one opening and Montana and Montana State would probably come in as a pair.  Therefore, if the MWC needs only one school from the Big Sky, don't be surprised if it is Portland State instead of Montana. 


Montana and Montana State already have the facilities and only need to add the women's sports programs for title IX.  This is the excuse that they used to spurn the WAC, and it is a good one.  But they may find if they move up, increased football revenues could cover that expense.  Montana, as a state, has the population to support 1 FBS program, but not 2.  Montana is just shy of 1 million in population.  Their state's annual growth rate is about 1% per year.  Without a major population boom, it will be decades before Montana has enough people to support 2 FBS programs, before the state adds another 800,000 people  (about 5 cities the size of Billings, the largest city in Montana).  That does stop West Virginia, for example; but look at how much Marshall has struggled recently?  If both Montana schools join the WAC, one will likely struggle for a long time.  The only saving grace?  BYU-Idaho does not have sports and Montana State can also claim northeastern Idaho as their market.  And Northern Wyoming has doesn't have much to speak of.  Montana State has a large circle of land with potential recruits nearly all to themselves.  It's not a densley populated area, but another 100,000 people live within 200 miles of Bozeman outside the state of Montana.  And the closest large university to Montana State does not have a sports program.  If there is another population boom, perhaps due to new energy development, maybe both schools can succeed at the higher level.  They are certainly tearing up the FCS right now.

The WAC Plan...and it's reality...conference expansion.

I've seen a recent report, and this should interest BYU fans who read this blog, that a new plan has emerged for Big 12.  Notre Dame may join the Big 12 for all sports except football.  Notre Dame prefers to remain independent in Football.

BYU fans may like this.  Who would balance out the Big 12 in football?  BYU, of course.  The Cougars would compete in the Big 12 in football, have BCS access, and have their other sports in the WCC.  The Sunday play issue would not come into play.  For Notre Dame and Cougar fans, they may both get what they want.

How does this affect what is left of the WAC?  It comes down to Denver.  It is no secret that Denver prefers the all-private WCC as a conference home.  The WCC, however, may not wish to expand beyond 10 schools.  ESPN reported yesterday that Denver is trying to convince the remaining WAC members to remain together in Basketball and snatch up Utah Valley and CS Bakersfield.  That would bring the WAC to 7 members and they could keep their automatic NCAA bid.

This would be good news for the Wolverine fans who won the Great West Conference Championship this last season, but had to settle for the CBI tournament.  Their baseball team is tearing it up this year, but no automatic bid to the NCAA baseball tournament, however, I do not see the NCAA passing up on the Wolverines in baseball this season.

However, for this to work, the WAC would probably need to convince at least one more school to come on board in case the Big East fails and Boise State decides to return to the Mountain West Conference.  Due to the problems the WAC has had with stability, the only thing that the WAC has to offer right now is the automatic bid.  The WAC, therefore, is probably not going to be able to talk anyone out of the Summit League or the Southland Conference, even if there is a better geographical fit in the WAC.

An 8th member may provide stability to the WAC.  Texas Pan-American is with Utah Valley in the Great West, and may be interested in moving just to ensure a good season will result in a NCAA tournament bid.  There is also an eastern orientation in what is now the Great West Conference.  UTPA may find it easier to travel to Seattle than to travel to Howard (Washington DC) or New Jersey Tech.

Otherwise, the WAC may want to approach a Division II school looking to upgrade.  UC San Diego or Cal State San Bernardino may be looking for a Division I home.  They may prefer the Big West to the WAC, but the Big West, like with CS Bakersfield, may not be interested.  Maybe Alaska Anchorage and Alaska Fairbanks are interested in Division I.  How about Western Washington or Simon Fraser?  Perhaps the WAC should expand well beyond 8 schools to ensure stability and keep others from bolting.

The question then remains, what about Idaho and New Mexico State and their football programs?  My hunch is that Idaho will join the Big Sky for football or compete as an FCS independent.  New Mexico State may become a football-only member of the Sun Belt Conference or a football-only member of the Southland Conference.

The next step for the WAC is to ensure that they will have a stable basketball conference and recognize that football is perhaps a lost cause at best at least for the present.

ESPN article
Big 12 expansion article

What will happen to Idaho if they drop?

According to the Idaho Statesman, the Big Sky Conference and Idaho are now talking.  Doug Fullerton, the BSC commissioner, says that the FCS is a more stable financial situation for Idaho than remaining in the FBS.  On that point, he is a little delusional.  Here is why.

1.  There is no TV money for football in the Big Sky Conference.  There will be no games on ESPN-U.  There will be no games every year at BYU.  There will be "body bag" games at big time FBS schools, but the fee will be cut in half.  Instead of 1 million per game, it will be 500,000.  Idaho will face a loss of 1.5 to 3 million per year in football.  Instead of pulling in around 7 million in football every year, it will be around 3.5 to 5 million per year.

2.  The loss in revenue will be made up by cutting other sports.  At Idaho, it will likely mean the loss of men's golf and women's swimming...sports which the Big Sky Conference does not sponsor.

3.  The drop to the Big Sky Conference will mean a drop in profile for all sports that are not football.  Idaho will have more trouble scheduling quality opponents in men's and women's basketball and all other sports.  These sports will lose more money than they are now.  As I pointed out in a prior blog, Montana's Olympic sports make back 45% of their costs, while Idaho's Olympic sports make back around 60%.

4.  On the plus side, the BSC has, or used to have, a small footprint than the WAC.  This means lower costs in travel.

It should be no wonder why Idaho will want to stay at the FBS level.