Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Big Sky Power Rankings 12/30

First, I wish to clarify the nicknames I use for the Big Sky Conference travel partners.

Montanas--Montana and Montana State
I-15ers--Weber State and Idaho State
Northerns--Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona
Northwesterns--Portland State and Eastern Washington
Sacramento State--Travels alone. Their old travel partner, CSU-Northridge, is now in the Big West.

Games this weekend:
Montanas visit the I-15ers
Sacramento State visits the Northwesterns
The Northerns play each other in Flagstaff on Saturday.

Second, the Big Sky is still only a one-bid NCAA conference, although UNC has come close to building a good enough resume for an at-large bid. If only they could have won that game at Oklahoma. Montana has a decent resume as well. There are not enough at-large opportunities to go around anymore. But there are four Big-Sky schools that have a good enough resume for the NIT or CBIT.

Third, the BSC tournament is a six-team tourney. The first place team hosts the tournament, both the first and second place team get a first round bye. The first round of the tournament will have the sixth place team visiting the third place team and the fifth place team visiting the fourth place team.

Power Rankings:
1. Northern Colorado--Enters Big Sky play with 12 wins. Three of those wins are against the Mountain West Conference: Air Force, Colorado State and TCU. They also beat Hawaii, San Jose State and Denver. The Bears beat Montana in Missoula in early season conference play. Their losses are to Wyoming, and Oklahoma in a nail-biter and an early-season Big Sky roadie at Montana State. The Bears are in good shape going into conference play. With the way the Bears are playing ball, I expect the Big Sky tourney to be in Greeley. This could put them in place for an NCAA bid...their first since becoming and D-I school.

2. Montana--The Grizzlies have 10 wins going into conference play. Their resume includes wins against Boise State, Loyola Marymont, Oregon and Fresno State--with the last two on the road. Their losses are to Denver, Washington, Colorado State and an early-season conference home game to the other Bears while beating the Lumberjacks. Montana should get into the NIT if they do not win the BSC tournament.

3. Weber State--The Wildcats were slow out of the gate. Street and Smith predicted they would go 2-10 in non-conference play and win the conference. Instead they went 6-6. Here is to beating expectations. The Cat's have had problems taking on teams with size, which explains losses to Utah State twice as well at UC Santa Barbara, Seattle, BYU and UNLV. But they own wins against Utah and Cal-State Fullerton. I imagine that the Street and Smith folks expected WSU to loose to Southern Utah and Morehead State as well. They also won an early-season conference roadie against Sacramento State. Weber State may get into the CBIT if they do not win the BSC tourney.

4. Montana State--The Bobcats are 7-5 at this time. They have a trio of impressive wins against San Francisco, UC-Santa Barbara and Cal-Poly. They have losses at Oregon, Nevada, Boise State and Memphis. They also split an early season conference home-stand against the Northerns, beating NCU but loosing to NAU. The Bobcats could use a little more consistency. Montana State may get into the CBIT as well, depending on how well they play in conference.

5. Portland State--The Vikings enter the bulk of Big Sky play at 6-7. Their early season conference game was a home win against Eastern Washington. They do not play again until they host the Hornets on Saturday. Their impressive wins come against Cal Poly, U or Portland, and Pepperdine. They lost to the likes of Wright State, Washington, Stanford, Saint Mary, Washington State and Boise State. A little more consistency and their resume would be a little bit stronger. Their bubble has already burst with just one to many losses. The Vikings will have to win the Big Sky tourney to go dancing. They will have to win 13 or 14 conference games to get to one of the consolation tournaments.

6. Sacramento State--The Hornets enter the New Year with a non-so-shabby 6-8 record. They also have a win at Oregon State. They won an early-season conference game at Idaho State, while loosing at home to Weber State. They have lost chances to impress selection committees--lossing to Rice, Idaho, USC, Pacific and Loyola Marymount. The only path the the post-season will be to win the Big Sky Tournament.

7. Northern Arizona--The Lumberjacks are 5-7 with one of the weaker non-conference schedules. They have a win at Air Force, but only had a chance to impress selection committees with road losses against Arizona, New Mexico and San Diego State. Had one game against Pacific suspended. Two of their losses were early season conference games in Montana. Will need to win the Big Sky Tournament to get to the post-season.

8. Eastern Washington--The Eagles are 4-10, and were the team that finally gave a dose of reality to the Seattle Red Hawks. They had plenty of chances to impress people with losses to Portland, Washington State, Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, BYU and Gonzaga. They also lost at home to Portland State in early December. It should be obvious that their bubble has burst. The Hornets are in Cheney on Thursday.

9. Idaho State--How many athletic directors in the country would schedule road games against Iowa State, Bradley, BYU, Utah State, Notre Dame, Utah, USC and Oregon? Idaho State had this schedule and all of these games all turned into losses for the Bengals. They also lost a home game to Boise State, as well as a close one at home to the Hornets. If it were not for a D-II team and an NAIA school at home, they would only have a win at Missouri-Kansas City to their credit. The Bengals are in last because who ever scheduled their games doesn't know the difference between a challenging schedule and a killer one. No NIT or CBIT or any post season unless they can win the Big Sky Tourney, even if they finish 15-1 in conference play.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Forget about conferece expansion, it is conferecne contraction that we need.

A recent poll shows that fans prefer a playoff to the BCS. Two things will need to be done to facilitate a playoff, first will be to return to an 11-game season and second will be to eliminate conference championship games.

In the FCS, where there is a playoff, there is an 11-game season. The CAA (Colonial Athletic Association), the only conference that partakes of the FCS playoffs that has divisions does not have a championship game. Mainly, they do not need one. They seem to get four or five schools into the playoffs anyway. They had four teams in the playoffs this season with three of those four teams in the final four. And without Hofstra, the CAA may abandon the division concept next year.

With a 12-game schedule, a conference championship game and a 20-team playoff like the FCS will have next year, there exists the potential for an 18-game season. The Maximum that an NFL team plays is 20...well 24 if you count the pre-season...but who does.

So, while we are talking about conference expansion, the talk of a playoff would call for contraction. If you return to an 11-game season, and you eliminate the conference championship games, and you have a 20-team playoff, you have, at most, 16 games. That spells a nine team conference.

I would imagine, however, that the SEC and Big 12 would not feel the need to contract and feel entitled to have at least two and perhaps three or four teams each in the playoffs. Much like the Colonial gets in the FCS. But Conference USA and the MAC would have to shed some weight.

This year, the FCS had a 16-team playoff, but DII has had a 20-team playoff for a few years. Next year, the FCS will have a 20-team playoff to allow them to give automatic bids to the Big South and Great West and to encourage participation from the Ivy League and the Southwest Athletic Conference (Traditional Black Schools) with currently do not participate in the playoff system. There are also more teams playing 2 games against FBS schools and that tends to confuse the selection committee. The FCS playoffs may expand to 24 or 28 in the near future.

Here is how a 20 team playoff would have worked in the FBS this year:

Automatic entries-11:

ACC-Georgia Tech
Big 12 - Texas
Big East - Cincinnati
Big 10 - Ohio State
C-USA- East Carolina
MAC - Central Michigan
MWC - TCU
PAC-10 - Oregon
SEC - Alabama
Sun Belt - Troy
WAC - Boise State

At Large-9 (Based on BCS Standings)
Florida
Iowa
Virginia Tech
LSU
Penn State
BYU
Miami
West Virginia
Pittsburgh

Seedings (Based on BCS Standings)
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Cincinnati
4. TCU
5. Florida
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia Tech
10. Iowa
11. Va Tech
12. LSU
13. Penn State
14. BYU
15. Miami
16. West Virginia
17. Pittsburgh
18. East Carolina
19. Central Michigan
20. Troy

First Round
17. Pittsburgh at 16. West Virginia
18. East Carolina at 15. Miami (FL)
19. Central Michigan at 14. BYU
20. Troy at 13. Penn State

Second Round
Lowest remaining first round seed at 1. Alabama
9. Georgia Tech at 8. Ohio State

Highest remaining first round seed at 4. TCU
12. LSU at 5. Florida

11. Virginia Tech at 6. Boise State
Second highest remaining first round seed at 3. Cincinnati

10. Iowa at 7. Oregon
Second lowest remaining first round seed at 2. Texas

By Conference:
ACC-3
Big 12-1
Big East-3
Big 10-3
C-USA-1
MAC-1
MWC-2
PAC-10-1
SEC-2
Sun Belt-1
WAC-1

Given it goes down this way, I thing there would be lobbying for a 24 game playoff so that the entitled conferences can each get 3 team each. The next four in would be: Oregon State, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Stanford.

Here are some observations that I have from the FCS playoffs.
-The opening round games seem to have a 10 to 35 percent attendance drop-off from the regular season averages. Expect this to play a role in which teams are selected. This would bode well for Oklahoma State or Utah getting in with Miami and Pittsburgh being left out. This would solidify BYU's chances at getting in. Attendance at neutral site games would also play a factor in seeding.
-There is also a lot of pull from the big conferences. This could mean that Oregon State or Oklahoma State could get in over BYU.
-Potential TV ratings games play a role in where teams are seated. For example, you may see TCU seeded 3 to increase the likelihood of a TCU/Texas match-up.

Other ways to facilitate a playoff.
-Begin the season earlier.
-Actually demote some programs to the FCS.

Big Sky, WAC and Mountain West Football Power Rankings for the Entire Decade

Mountain West


1.  Utah
It is hard to argue with 2 BCS bowl game victories, 3 conference championships and 8 bowl victories in 8 tries.  One of four things that changed the course of this conference in the 00's was the hiring of Urban Meyer.  This man raised the bar for the conference, even though he was in Salt Lake City for only two years.  The two times the Utes failed to earn a bowl birth were when Ron McBride was still on the hill.  The program is rising and will be a national force for years to come.

2.  TCU
The second thing that changed the course of the Mountain West in the decade was admitting TCU to the conference.  The Horned Frogs have pushed the rest of the conference to be better.  The program is rising.  Winning 2 conference championships and four bowl games--so far--has helped.  Making it to a BCS bowl game, win or loose, helps the stature of the program and the conference.

3.  BYU
I know Cougar fans well, and they would like to think that thier program deserves a better ranking than this.  But this is for the entire decade.  Half of the decade, including LaVell Edwards last season, Bronco Mendenhall's first season, and three of Gary Crowton's four seasons found the Cougars at .500 or lower.  The program is back in the right direction now.  Bronco Mendenhall's hiring was the third of four events that have propelled the conference to one of the best in the country.  The Cougars have won three conference championships and three bowl games and have a streak of four consecutive 10+ seasons.

4.  Colorado State
The Rams won three of the first four conference championships, with two bowl wins, and then the bottom fell out.  Steve Fairchild appeared to have things turned around in 2008 adding another bowl win, but 2009 found CSU winless in conference play.  The program is in free-fall right now.

5.  Air Force
The end of the Fisher DeBerry era was the only blip in an otherwise good decade for Air Force.  The Falcons did not win a championship, but did finish 2nd in 2007, and now have two bowl victories.  The program is back on solid and steady footing.

6.  New Mexico
 Rocky Long had a good, solid, consistent winner until the 2008 season.  Not sure what happened, but some close to the Lobo program said it had something to do with recruiting.  Long kind of gave up.  No conference championship, but the Lobos have five bowl appearances with one win.  The program fell to where there was only one victory in 2009.  The program is in fast free fall and needs a parachute.  But at least the basketball Lobos are winning and that is all they really care about in Albuquerque.

7.  Wyoming
This was a rough decade for Laramie.  It is book ended by two bowl winning seasons, however, and Dave Christensen has a talented team to take the program into the next decade as a winner.

8.  UNLV
Football is about the only program at UNLV that can not seem to find a footing.  They did start the decade with a Las Vegas Bowl victory over Arkansas, but then things floundered and not even the legendary John Robinson could keep the ship aright.  We will see what Bobby Hauck can do where Robinson and Mike Sanford failed.

9.  San Diego State
The Aztecs are the only MWC team without a winning season or bowl appearance in the decade.  They have been as close as they were this past year before, just to return to a one or two win season the next year.  If Brady Hoke can deliver at least five wins next year, it will be a break in recent trends.

Prior decades team of the decade:
The MWC began in 1999 when BYU, Colorado State and Utah tied for the championship.

Play of the decade

Moments like this are helping the US discover the MWC.  The fourth event for the MWC that changed the course of the conference was, like it or not, the creation of the Mtn.

WAC


1.  Boise State
Seven conference championships and perhaps the most memorable moment of the decade belong to the BSU Broncos.  If only they would fire their color-blind groundskeeper! Lately, however, the team has had little competition from the rest of the conference.  In WAC history, when one team began to dominate, someone else in the conference would rise up and challenge them.  That has not happened to Boise State.  Either the WAC will need to improve, or the Broncos will need to play somewhere else.

2.  Hawaii
June Jones brought winning football back to the Islands.  Then he left.  The Warriors could be a good program to challenge the BSU Broncos, but alas, they have not only chased Jones away, but the Pro Bowl as well.  Hawaii has a conference championship, three bowl victories out of six appearances including a loss in the Sugar Bowl.  The Hawaii Program has been in slow decline since Jones left.

3.  Nevada
Former Head Coach Chris Ault resumed his duties at Nevada in 2004 and the second half of the decade  was nothing but successful for the Wolfpack.  They earned a share of the conference championship in 2005, and a bowl victory that season.  They now have a streak of 5 consecutive winning seasons and bowl appearances.  They are now as steady as any WAC program outside of Boise.

4.  Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs joined the WAC in 2001 and won the championship in that season.  Most of the decade, however, the team from Reston, LA has been just on the cusp of a winning season.  In addition to the 2001 championship, the Bulldogs earned a trip to the Independence Bowl in 2008.  Expect more of the same from them.

5.  Fresno State
Fresno State has to be considered the underachiever of all three conferences that this site covers.  The Bulldogs begin every season in the BCS Buster conversation, but have not won a conference championship since 1999...which is why they are not ranked higher.  But, they do have nine bowl appearances to their credit and they won four of them.  At least they are consistent.

6.  San Jose State
Considering that SJSU plays in the shadow of a pair of PAC-10 programs and in aging facilities, they still have four winning seasons and a bowl game to thier credit in the last decade.  Considering that in this day of 30-plus bowls, the fact that they have been passed over for the post season three times does not speak well of fan support in the south-bay area.  But they have survived where other bay-area colleges like Pacific and Santa Clara have dropped football.

7.  Idaho
The Vandals went bowling and won perhaps the most exciting bowl game of 2009.  Otherwise, they spend the decade near the bottom of the conference standings.  The success of last season brought their average number of wins per season above three, and puts them ahead of the other two programs that joined in 2005.  We will see if that can continue.

8.  New Mexico State
In the past five years, NMSU have won five more games than the other Aggies, and that is good enough to avoid last place.  Woot, Woot!  In this case, being a steady program is not a good thing.  Duane Walker is a good coach, and he will last here until his program improves.

9.  Utah State
By the end of the 2008 season, the USU Aggies were as close to being demoted to the FCS as any program in the entire FBS.  Perhaps no other program in the United States has any more reason to be excited about a four-win program than they do in Logan.  Gary Anderson has even had some moderate recruiting success in getting Jordan HS QB Alex Hart to commit before Colorado could.  Perhaps there is reason for hope in Logan.  The program is rising because you can only go up from where they have been.

Prior decades football team of the decade:
1990's--BYU (Now in the MWC)
1980's--BYU (Now in the MWC)
1970's--Arizona State (Now in the PAC-10)
1960's--Wyoming (Now in the MWC)

Play of the Decade
We can not even pretend that any event from the WAC in the past ten years matches this one.

Big Sky Conference

1. Montana--10 outright or shared conference championships, 10 NCAA playoff appearances, 5 FCS championship game appearances and 1 NCAA championship. It was a decade of dominance by the Grizzlies.  And Montana has dominated the conference after Nevada, Idaho and Boise State took their programs to the higher division, current conference championship streak is 12 with 14 out of the last 15. Three head coaches hired by floundering FBS football programs in the decade, but the magic remained in Missoula.  Perhaps Bobby Hauck will actually succeed where Joe Glenn and Mick Dennehy did not.

2. Montana State--3 Conference co-championships and 3 NCAA playoff appearances.  A Stadium expansion is underway.  If they can't get 25,000 fans at games in Bozeman, at least closing off the ends of the stadium will help with the nasty and cold Gallatin Valley winds.  The decade had an ominous beginning in Bozeman with a winless season in 2000.  By 2002, the Boze-cats won their first of three conference championships and have been consistent winners afterwards.

3. Eastern Washington--2 Conference co-championships and 4 NCAA playoff appearances.  Perhaps the most consistent program outside of Missoula in the Big Sky conference with only one sub-.500 season the entire decade.  Too bad that Paul Wulff has not been able to take that level of consistency with him to Pullman.

4. Weber State--1 Conference co-championship and 2 NCAA playoff appearances. Program rising, but may have peaked in 2008.  The first half of the decade had a couple of promising seasons, but no playoffs.  Then came the disastrous 1-10 season in 2004.  This brought Ron McBride back to coaching in 2005 and he put the Cats in the playoffs in 2008 and 2009.

5. Northern Arizona--2 NCAA playoff appearances mid-decade marked ten years with modest success. With rumors that the only football in Flagstaff after the 2009 season would be the Arizona Cardinals training camp, the Lumberjacks have found a way to put it behind them and win with some very exciting football that brough back memories of the Big Sky Conference of the 80s.  Jerome Souers is the dean of coaches in the Big Sky conference.

6. Portland State--1 NCAA playoff appearance. New head coach, Nigel Burton, will kick off the new decade trying to succeed where former NFL head coach Gerry Glanville could not.  Maybe the run and shoot will be gone from Portland as well.  When Tim Walsh was the head coach, the explosive offense could consistently score more points than the defense would allow.  Once Glanville took over, the defense went south and winning games was hard to come by.  You don't win a lot of games when 60+ points is not good enough.  This is why PSU hired a defensive-minded coach.

7. Idaho State--1 conference co-championship but did not appear in the playoffs in the last decade, even in the championship season. That championship in 2001 was shared with Eastern Washington and Montana who did go to the playoffs that year.  At the beginning of the decade, the Bengals were winning just like they were in the 1970s.  Near the end of the decade, they forgot how and couldn't even win games that were gifted to them.

8. Sacramento State--Did not win the conference or make the NCAA playoffs in the decade.  At this level of football, there are no beauty-contest bowls.  They dream of bigger things in Sacramento, like a move up to the Bowl Subdivision, but have to figure out how to succeed at this level first.

9. Northern Colorado--Joined the conference in 2006 to replace CSU-Northridge after that school dropped football. 2009 was the first time they won more than one conference game.  The program was a consistent playoff program at Divsion II, but have not found that kind of success, yet, in the FCS.

Prior Decades Team of the Decade:
1990s--Montana
1980s--Idaho (Now in the WAC)
1970s--Boise State (Now in the WAC)
1960s--Montana State

Fun Video Link because it is really difficult to find good Big Sky video.  If anyone has a link to the Tim Toone put return in the snow against Northern Arizona, let me know.  Also, video from the 73-68 game in Portland would be nice as well.  Or Montana's comeback against South Dakota State in the playoffs would be great as well.







Monday, December 28, 2009

PAC-10 Expansion?

There is a lot of talk about conference expansion again all of the sudden. The Big 10 is discussing expansion to get in on the conference championship money. Ask Conference USA and the MAC what a conference championship game has done for them? The PAC-10 is looking into it as well. Are BYU and Utah a good fix in the PAC-12? I present the same 10 questions for the PAC-10 that I gave to the MWC a couple of weeks ago.

1. The new schools must improve the standing of the PAC-10 in the BCS.
2. The new schools must improve the standing of the PAC-10 in the NCAA basketball tourney.
3. The new schools must add to the reputation of the PAC-10 in baseball
4. The new schools must add to the quality of the conference in non-revenue sports.
5. The new schools must have modern facilities and working to make improvements.
6. The new schools must add to the recruiting base of the conference.
7. The new schools must strengthen the television marketability of the conference.
8. The new schools must not add significantly to the travel requirements of the conference.
9. The new schools must add something positive to the academic reputation of the conference.
10. The new schools must be compliant with NCAA regulations, including being free of non-qualifying athletes.

************************************************************************************

1. Can any school improve the standing of the PAC-10 in the BCS? Chances are, no. It is not the PAC-10 that is threatened by the success of the MWC, even if the other western conference has owned it in recent years. The PAC-10 has a decades-old association with the Rose Bowl. The BCS needs the Rose Bowl and not visa-versa. If the BCS drops the PAC-10, then the Rose Bowl drops the BCS. The PAC-10 has a secure place in the BCS.

There is no reason for the PAC-10 to raid and weaken to MWC just to keep the Big East involved in the BCS. Nothing changes from the perspective of the PAC-10 if the MWC replaces the Big East in the BCS. The PAC-10 gains nothing from it, and looses nothing by it.

From a football perspective, the only thing that the PAC-10 gains from expansion is a championship game and the money and exposure a championship game will provide. The SEC, ACC and Big-12 had successful championship games that drew well with TV audiences and that also brings in advertising money. A Pac-12 this year, in theory, would have brought Oregon and Arizona together. Not as intriguing as Alabama/Florida, but better than Texas/Nebraska. Last year could have seen Utah and USC meet. That would have been fun.

2. In basketball, the PAC-10 is not the only conference in the west. But unless expansion can provide an extra invitee or two, there is not a lot that two more teams can add. The PAC-10 had 6 invitees last year, and it is rare that they have had less than 3. There is suspicion that adding BYU and Utah and holding the championship at ESA may provide more interest in the championship tourney, but only if BYU and Utah are both having good seasons. This season the PAC-10 could use the success that BYU has enjoyed in non-conference play as some traditional powers like UCLA and Arizona are struggling.

3. USC, Arizona State and Oregon State have been regulars in Omaha for a long time. BYU is nothing more than a consistent winner in baseball and Utah rarely makes it to the NCAA tournament. The only program west of the Great Divide that can improve the PAC-10 in Baseball is in Fresno.

4. BYU and Utah have solid non-revenue programs. BYU is a consistent winner in Womens Soccer, Cross Country, and several others. Utah add Womens Gymnastics to the mix.

5. Both BYU and Utah have modern facilities that are a good mix to the PAC-10.

6. Do Haloti Ngata, Stanley Havili and Dallas Lloyd ring a bell to Utah High School fans? They should. They all played high school ball in Utah and went to PAC-10 schools. The PAC-10 does not need to add BYU and Utah to the conference to expand their recruiting base. Actually the recruiting bases have been mixed for decades. How many of BYU's legendary quarterbacks come from California, Arizona or Washington? (Gary Sheide (Antioch, CA); Jim McMahon (San Jose, CA before Roy, UT); Marc Wilson (Seattle); Robbie Bosco (Roseville, CA); John Walsh (Torrance, CA); Steve Sarkisian (Torrance, CA); John Beck (Mesa, AZ) and Max Hall (Mesa, AZ) that is 8! All but Nielsen, Young and Detmer.) Adding BYU and Utah will neither add to nor subtract from the recruiting base.

7. What does a metro of about 3 million add to the PAC-10? Only an exciting and intense rivalry. Four of the PAC-10's current schools play in a smaller metro than BYU and Utah.

8. Both BYU and Utah are closer to Seattle than Tuscon and visa versa. No problem here.

9. BYU is known for Business Management and in the Pac-12, BYU would be in the three, right behind Stanford and Cal. Utah would be #5 in Medicine. They would not be a detriment in the academic arena.

10. No problem here.

Any negatives? BYU will not play on Sunday.

Bottom line. If the PAC-10 becomes the PAC-12, BYU and Utah would probably be as good of a choice as any. But the PAC-10 probably does not need to expand, unless they really, really need the money that a championship game could provide. As I write this, Jimmer Ferdette puts up 49 for BYU on Arizona at the McHale Center. BYU and Utah could compete in this conference, and perhaps do a little better. They would likely do no worse than Arizona and Arizona State have. It would be difficult to find another pair that would be better.

If I were to choose between seeing BYU and Utah in the PAC-12 versus the MWC-12 given that the MWC-12 would be an automatic qualifier in the BCS, I would choose the later. BYU/Utah does not have a long history with anyone currently in the PAC-10. Yes, Arizona and Arizona State were in the WAC from 1962 to 1977. Before then, UAZ and ASU were in the Border Conference and BYU and Utah were in the Skyline conference. BYU/Utah have a long history with Colorado State, Wyoming and New Mexico. It would be great to see those rivalries continue. Overall, I have a neutral opinion on the prospect. Two years ago, I was excited about the possibility, but the progress of the MWC has changed my mind. The PAC-10 can get along fine without BYU and Utah. The Cougars and the Utes only need a better conference, and a better MWC is good enough for me.

Utah Utes Season in Review

For a team that was supposed to be rebuilding, winning ten games is no small accomplishment. Kyle Whittingham hangs his hat on defense, and the credit to winning ten games this year belongs mostly on the defensive side of the ball. It was the defense that kept the Utes close against Oregon and BYU. It was defense that made Wyoming and Air Force winnable games. It was defense that helped turn around the Poinsettia Bowl.

Jordan Wynn looks impressive right now. This kid has does not the meaning of the word "quit." Against BYU and against California, the Utes were down by two scores, but Wynn did not quit and the Utes came back. Anytime a team is down by two or more scores, it is an invitation to quit. Sure, one game was an overtime loss, but OT in football is a "Russian roulette" anyway.

Kyle Whittingham has his team loaded for another big season in 2010. Sure, the Horned Frogs will likely be the conference favorite, depending on who goes to the NFL, but the Utes do not have a ton of key losses. And should TCU see a lot of losses to early NFL draft entries, Utah should then become the favorite.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Bowl Update 12/25


FCS Championship Game

Villanova 23 Montana 21 @ Chattanooga, TN, December 18, 6:00 PM Mountain ESPN 2.
Congratulations to Villanova on their win over Montana.  The Wildcats showed the country how to beat the Grizzlies.  They made Chase Reynolds a non-factor and forced Andy Selle to win the game by himself.  That he almost did, but the Grizz could not recover the on-side kick at the end.

New Mexico Bowl

Wyoming 35 Fresno State 28 @ Albuquerque, NM, December 19, 2:30 PM
This was supposed to be a party for Ryan Matthews.  He was supposed to impress the heck out of all of the NFL scouts.  But 24,000 people in Albuquerque, most clad in prairie gold and brown ,witnessed a coming out party for Austyn Carta-Samuels and the Wyoming Cowboys.  When the game was on the line, when the Bulldogs were up by three in the final third of the fourth quarter, Ryan Matthews was forced to cough up the football.  What followed was a gutsy drive by Carta-Samuels and company, where they converted 3 fourth downs on the way to kicking the game tying field goal.  In  the OT, the Wyoming defense held on for the win

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU 44 Oregon State 20 @ Las Vegas, NV, December 22, 2009 6:00 pm Mountain Time

The difference in this game is that Max Hall and BYU could handle the wind, but Oregon State could not.  Even when the wind was at their back, the Beavers had trouble.  That was where the game turned around.  Whether the wind caught the ball, or it was a planned lateral, the fumble return turned the game around for good and OSU could not get on track until the fourth quarter.

Poinsettia Bowl
Utah 37 vs California 27 @ San Diego, CA, December 23, 2009 6:00 pm Mountain Time

Jordan Wynn looked a little shaky at first, but bounced back nicely.  Shaky is an understatement.  It was a near disaster at the bigging.  Before you could sit down with your nachos and Coke, Cal had a 14-0 lead.  There was no panic in Wynn, he settled down and had the best game of his young collegiate career, do date.  The Utes had little trouble putting the Bears away at the end.  Stevenson Sylvester put away Cal for good in the fourth quarter.


Hawaii Bowl
SMU 45 Nevada 10 @ Honolulu, HI, December 24, 2009 6:00 PM Mountain Time
June Jones returns to Aloha Stadium, but it was the Ponies that ran away with this one and not the Wolfpack.  Nevada only turned the ball over once, and that led to SMU's last touchdown.  The Mustang defense held the Wolfpack rushers to just 137 yards on the ground.  If I had been paying attention, I would have noticed that Luke Lippincott and Via Taua would not be playing and I would have predicted it differently.


Upcoming Bowls


Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX, December 31, 2009 at 10:00 am Mountain Time
Air Force vs Houston
Case Keenum is in a similar place to Ryan Matthews.  He is someone who is coming off a real sharp junior year and is deciding to enter the NFL.   The Difference, Keenum could earn some real heavy hardware should he remain in college.  The question is whether or not Air Force can play a good defensive game.  Keenum is the best quarterback the Falcon will face all season.  There are some very good quarterbacks in the MWC, and Keenum is better than any of them. Conventional wisdom is that if Max Hall can shred the Falcon defense, Keenum will annihilate them.
Houston 35 Air Force 17
WAC

Humanitarian Bowl @ Boise, ID, December 30, 2009 2:30 PM Mountain Time
Idaho vs Bowling Green
The Vandals were one of the feel good stories of the early college football season.  But they enter this bowl having lost four straight.  Sure, Fresno State, Nevada and Boise State are better teams and they actually had a chance to beat the Bulldogs as the Matthews was hurt for much of the game.  But the loss at the end of the season is a head scratcher.  The Falcons are entering bowl season the right way, on a four game winning streak.  Freddie Barnes has nearly 1/3 of all of BG's receptions and nearly half of their touchdowns.  The Idaho defense will be a good opponent to add to his record total.
BG 27 Idaho 17


Fiesta Bowl
TCU vs Boise State @ Glendale, AZ, January 4, 2010 6:00 pm Mountain Time
Matching these two in a bowl game is considered a big disappointment to BCS enemies, but a good move by BCS proponents.  But it is now time to worry about the game and leave the politics for later.  Boise State has not even seen anyone as close to the caliber as TCU.  The Frogs are much better than the team that they battled in last year's Poinsettia bowl.  The Broncos will have to be at the top of their game to come close to winning.  TCU has been scary the last half of the season and have obliterated all comers and have made it look easy.  This includes a pair of ranked conference rivals.  Ranked rivals are something that Boise State does not have to reckon with right now.
TCU 38 Boise 17



Wednesday, December 23, 2009

BYU's season in review.

The Cougars finished another season with 11 wins.  This is their third 11-wins season out of the last four, and that is no small accomplishment.  Their most successful four year period if you count total number of wins.  However, I have to give a nod to the Cougars from 1983 to 1986.  In that time-frame the Cougars won 3 conference championships, one national championship and had a 25-game winning streak.  In three of those four seasons, they only lost one conference game--that infamous loss to UTEP.  And during that time-frame, they never lost to the Utes.  And the first of those four years featured a quarterback who is now in the NFL Hall of Fame.

This year started with promise, a win against Oklahoma in Dallas and a blowout victory over Tulane.  Then the wheels fell off against Florida State.  The Cougars again rebounded before loosing at home against TCU.  The Horned Frogs deserve a shot at the National Championship, but loosing like that to Florida State really mars what was otherwise a fairly good season for the Cougars, even by BYU standards.  The Cougars could have, and maybe if they had been better prepared, would have sent Bobby Bowden out of coaching without a bowl game.

As for Max Hall.  In the long run, I agree with one sentiment of Gordon Monson.  At worst, Max Hall was an adequate custodian of BYU's quarterback tradition.  Who knows, Hall's bust may very be next to Steve Young's in Canton one day. 

 BYU will enter next season with a lot of shoes to fill.  There will be four vying to replace Max Hall at quarterback, and there is really no heir apparent.  Riley Nelson was Max's backup all season, but did not get a chance to play except in mop-up duty.  James Lark flew home from Russia just in time to be on the sideline in Las Vegas and Jake Heaps was there with him.  Jason Munns will be returning from his mission in May.  I expect that Munns will be the bridesmaid as he will not be around for spring ball.

But Max Hall isn't the only one leaving.  Both tight ends, Pitta and Goerge are gone.  So is blocking back Manase Tonga.  On defense; Matt Bauman, Coleby Clawson, Brett Denney, Shawn Doman, Terrance Hooks, Jan Jorgensen and Vic So'oto will not be back.  It will be an interesting off-season in Provo.  It could be BYU's turn in the BCS next season, but this time, that quest may be overly optimistic.