If the school needs a new head coach...2024 Edition

 I have not written in the blog this year as frequently as I have in the past.  I've had other priorities.  My career took a tumble in 2019.  I am almost back to the point where I was then.  But this is one post I do every year.  If each head coach were to be replaced, who would be the short list candidates.  Well, this is my take.

Updated February, 2024.

BYU
Current Head Coach: Kalani Sitake
Why he might leave: BYU has had their second losing season under Kalani.  He will be gone after a third.  Why take the chance?

Short list of potential replacements:
NC State Offensive Coordinator: Robert Anae
San Jose State Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo
Defensive Coordinator: Jay Hill
Offensive Coordinator: Aaron Roderick
Southern Utah Head Coach (Former SVU Head Coach): DeLane Fitzgerald
Utah Tech Head Coach: Lance Anderson 
Snow College Football Caoch: Zac Erekson

Utah
Current Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
Why he might leave: Time to Retire, head coach in waiting may not wait longer.

Short list of potential replacements
Defensive Coordinator: Morgan Scalley
(And that is the list)
JK
If Scalley isn't the guy...there are others
BYU Defensive Coordinator: Jay Hill
Utah State Head Coach: Blake Anderson
Utah Tech Head Coach: Lance Anderson
Montana State Head Coach: Brent Vigen
Weber State Head Coach: Mickey Mental
Montana Head Coach: Bobby Hauck

Utah State
Current Head Coach: Blake Anderson
Why he might leave: There are other jobs that pay more, a lot more

Short list of potential replacements

Montana Head Coach: Bobby Hauck
Montana State Head Coach: Brent Vigen
Southern Utah Head Coach (Former SVU Head Coach): DeLane Fitzgerald
Former Interim Head Coach (Now at Washington State): Frank Maile
Utah Tech Head Coach: Lance Anderson

As Weber State and Southern Utah both had first-year head coaches and Utah Tech is looking for a replacement for Paul Peterson, I will not include them on this year's list

Utah Valley
If they start football, who would be their first coach

New Mexico Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall
Former Utah State Head Coach: Gary Anderson
NC State Offensive Coordinator: Robert Anae

Week 5 of College Football

 Every year, my son and I attempt to attend a home game for every Division 1 school in Utah.  We made it to Provo on Friday and our next game will likely be in Logan.  

We saw BYU's line get blown up on both sides of the football, yet come away with a win because they took care of the ball and Cincy did not.  BYU won by 8, scoring 14 points on turnovers.  The week before that, they gave up 21 points and lost by 11 at Kansas.  That is the theme of the week.

Weber State won in Greeley against the former BYU Special Teams Coordinator Ed Lamb and the Northern Colorado Bears with a pick 6 in the final minutes.

In Corvallis, both Utah and Oregon State threw an INT.  However, the Beavers capitalized on Utah's mistake, where the Utes did not.

Only the USU Aggies overcame their mistakes in getting the win in Connecticut.

Take care of the ball.  Doing so usually results in wins.  Not doing so usually results in losses.

Also of note: BYU's 4-1 feels different that Utah's 4-1

Projected Wins

BYU
Current Record: 4-1
Worst Case Scenario: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 9-3
Most Likely: 8-4
Projected Wins: Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Projected Losses: West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma
Toss Up: TCU, Texas Tech
Toughest Remaining game: At Texas
Trap game: Iowa State
Projected Bowl: Guaranteed Rate (Chase Field, Phoenix) vs. Purdue

Note: Take care of the football and they will pick up one or more of those unexpected wins.

Utah

Current Record: 4-1
Worst Case Scenario: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 11-1
Most Likely: 8-4
Projected Wins: California, Arizona State
Projected Losses: Washington, USC, Oregon
Toss Up: Arizona, Colorado
Toughest Remaining Game: At Washington
Trap Game: Arizona State
Projected Bowl: LA Bowl (SoFi Field, LA) vs. Air Force

Note: With Cam Rising back, Utah could win out.

Utah State
Current Record: 2-3
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Most Likely Scenario: 5-7
Projected Wins: Nevada, New Mexico
Projected Losses: Fresno State, San Jose State
Toss Up: Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State
Toughest Remaining Game: Fresno State
Trap Game: Colorado State
Projected Bowl: None 

Note: The Aggies may not finish above .500 this year but the future looks good through 2026 provided Cooper Legas stays healthy, does not transfer and does not leave for the NFL early.

Weber State
Current Record: 3-2
Worst Case Scenario: 6-5
Best Case Scenario: 9-2
Most Like Scenario: 8-3
Projected Wins: Idaho State, Cal Poly, Northern Arizona
Projected Loss: Idaho
Toss Up: Eastern Washington

Notes: They are fortunate to have their bye week before playing at home against Idaho.  I don't think they make the post season with the blowout loss to Montana State unless they win out.

Southern Utah
Current Record: 1-4
Worst Case Scenario: 3-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-5
Most Likely Scenario: 3-8
Projected Wins: Abilene Christian, Lincoln
Projected Losses: Stephen F. Austin
Toss Up: Tarleton State, Austin Peay, Utah Tech

Notes: SUU can still have a winning season if they shake off recent losses and be the team that played so well against Arizona State and BYU.

Utah Tech
Current Record: 1-4
Worst Case Scenario: 1-10
Best Case Scenario: 3-8
Most Likely Scenario: 2-9
Projected Wins: North Alabama
Projected Losses: Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian, Austin Peay
Toss Up: Eastern Kentucky, Southern Utah

Note: Rome wasn't built in a day.  It will be a few years yet before UT is competitive.  In the meantime, hit the transfer portal hard.

Controversial note on realignment.  Weber State and Utah Valley, if the Wolverines add football, are better options for FBS football than Southern Utah and Utah Tech.  

College Football '23 Big 12 Cliché Reactions

 I decided a new take on my college football blog this season, an overdramatic, overreaction post.

Big 12:

We played well.  I'm proud of my boys!
West Virginia

OMG, how can you lose to a team like Texas State/Colorado/Wyoming?  How does Dave Aranda/Sonny Dykes/Joey McGuire still have a freaking job?
Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech

A win is a win
BYU, Houston

Yea, we beat an FCS School! (slow clapping)
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Wow! We are going to win the conference championship and go to the playoff.
Central Florida, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas

The Real Prospects for the Remaining PAC-4 members

California:

Strengths, academics, history and market size.  There are nine schools that have won a National Championship in both football and basketball.  (Princeton is another and they are now FCS, if that counts for anything.)  It has been years since Cal has been feared in any sport.  

In Basketball, the Bears won it all in 1959, but have only 19 Big Dance appearances.  1959 was also the last time Cal was in the Rose Bowl.  Their first Rose Bowl, on New Years Day in 1920, capped an undefeated season and their first of 3 National Championships.  Their potential fourth after the 1937 season is disputed, the NCAA officially recognized Pittsburgh as the National Champion that year.  They were recognized as the national champion in 1920, 1921, 1922.  Six times their bowl appearances were attendance records.  The last time they set an attendance record was when Marshawn Lynch ran all over BYU in the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl.  In Football they have been anything but terrible.  Overall, they have 19 bowl appearances.  California has the most impressive sports resume of the PAC-4  However, sports is not the top priority in Berkeley and never has been.  It's always been about academics in Berkeley.

They still have hope at either an ACC or Big 10 invite.  The ACC seems most likely.  If that fails, the AAC or the MWC will likely invite them.  If the ACC invites Cal only for football, the likely landing spot for the rest of their sports in the Big West Conference, where they would be a perfect fit.

Odds:
Big 10: 0%
ACC: 50% (Most Likely Destination)
Note: Also a possibility is ACC for football only, with the other sports in the Big West
Mountain West/American: 30%
Independent Football/Big West:15%
Drop Football/Big West: 5%
FCS: 0%

Men's NCAA appearances: 19
Deepest Run: NCAA Champion 1959
Bowl Games: 19
Bowl Record 15.14.1
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 2-5-1: Rose 1921-W, 1922-T, 1929-L, 1938-W, 1949-L, 1950-L, 1951-L, 1959-L
Best Football Season: 1920: 8-0, Conference Champion, Rose Bowl Champion, National Champion.
Best Basketball Season: 1959 15-4, NCAA Champion.

Stanford:

Strengths: Academics, market and tradition.  Stanford won it all in 1942 where much of the competition was fighting a war.  They made the final four in 1988.  They have 17 tournament appearances.  Their last being in 2014. They last played in the Rose Bowl in defeating Iowa.  They have 30 total bowl game appearances.  They haven't been bowling since 2018.

They are more likely than any other to remain in a Power-5 conference.  Like Cal, they still hold hope for a Big 10 or ACC invite.  Out of the PAC-4, they are most likely to succeed as an independent.  I do not know if they will chose that route considering they only have one year to put together a schedule.  They would be a strong competitor in the Mountain West. If the ACC invite is for football only, the most likely destination for their other sports is the West Coast Conference, as WCC is all private schools, like Stanford.  The Big West is all public and all in California.

Big 10: <1%
ACC: 50% (Most Likely Destination)
Also a possibility is the ACC for Football Only with other sports in the WCC.
Mountain West/American:25%
Independent/WCC: 15%
Drop Football/WCC: 5%
FCS: 4%

Men's NCAA appearances: 17
Deepest Run: Final four 1988
Bowl Games: 30
Bowl Record 12-11-1
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 9-7-1: Rose 1902-L, Rose 1925-L, Rose 1927-T, Rose 1928-W, Rose 1935-L, Rose 1936-W, Rose 1941-W, Rose 1952-L, Rose 1971-W, Rose 1972-W, Rose 2000-L, Orange 2011-W, Fiesta 2012-L, Rose 2013-W, Rose 2014-L, Rose 2016-W
Best Football Season: 2010: 12-1, Orange Bowl Champion 
Heisman Trophy Winner: Jim Plunket, QB, 1970

Oregon State:

Strengths: The only real strength is their proximity to Portland and the location in the Willamette Valley.  They have been the little brother to Oregon for a long time.  They had 19 NCAA appearances, but 3 have been vacated.  But they made the Elite 8 in 2021 before bowing out to Houston.  They were in the Final Four in 1963.  They have appeared in 19 Bowl games, with their last Rose Bowl appearance in 1965.  Last season was impressive, where they went 9-3 in the regular season before crushing Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl 30-3.  

Because they don't have an impressive post-season history, they may have to settle for the Mountain West and prove themselves to Power-5 to get back.  If they go independent, their other sports will likely park themselves in the Big Sky Conference or WAC.  If the ACC invites OSU for football only, the likely landing spot for the other sports would be either the Big Sky Conference or the WAC.

Big 10/ACC/Big 12: 20%
Mountain West: 70% (Most Likely Destination)
Independent/Big Sky or WAC for non-football: 10%

Men's NCAA appearances: 19
Deepest Run: Final Four, 1963 
Bowl Games: 19
Bowl Record 12-11-1
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 2-2: Rose 1942-W, Rose 1957-L, Rose 1965-L, Fiesta 2001-W
Best Football Season: 2000: 12-1, Conference Co-Champion, Fiesta Bowl Champion

Washington State

Out of the PAC-4, Washington state has the weakest resume, athletically.  They don't have many real strengths.  They don't have the academic prowess the other schools have.  Men's basketball has appeared in the NCAA tournament six times.  Their football resume is more impressive, last appearing in the Rose Bowl in 2003, losing to Oklahoma in the BCS semis.  They have 18 bowl appearances, which is the fewest of the four.  The bigger issue with Washington State is their market.  Pullman is a city of about 35,000.  The only economic driver in their community is the university.  They are 75 miles from a city of any size (Spokane) and really can't claim they are part of any large metro, but they try to.  Although their airport has direct flights.  Which means that travel isn't all that difficult.  They would be the smallest city in any conference they were to join, unless they drop down to the NAIA.  Their alumni are everywhere, especially in the west and their fans are passionate.  But that will not be enough to keep them in the Power 5 or even in the FBS. If the ACC extends an invite for football only, I can't imagine their other sports going anywhere but the Big Sky Conference.  Idaho, Eastern Washington, Portland State and Montana are all relatively close.

Big 10/ACC/Big 12: <1%
Mountain West: 50% (Most Likely Destination)
Independence/Big Sky or WAC for non-football 25%
Big Sky for all sports: 24%

Men's NCAA appearances: 6
Deepest Run: Lost in the 1941 championship game
Bowl Games: 19
Bowl Record: 9-10
New Year's Day Bowl Record: 1-3: Rose W: 1916,  L: 1931, L: 1998, L:2003
Best Football Season: 2003: 10-3, Rose Bowl (BCS Semi-Final) Loss.

In conclusion, it is not a slam dunk that all four schools will join the Mountain West.  The concerns about Stanford and Cal joining the ACC are likely over travel.  They have history and a large media market on their side.  There are legitimate concerns about adding Washington State to any FBS conference, even the Mountain West.  Oregon State to the Mountain West seems most likely to happen.

Proposed MW-PAC merger. The PAC-16

Here are the market sizes of the Remaining PAC-12/Mountain West schools.  This is according to the US Census Bureau.  Numbers are 2023 Census estimates.

1-3. California/Stanford/San Jose State--San Francisco Bay CSA. 9,714,000
4. San Diego State--San Diego/Chula Vista/Carlsbad MSA. 3,298,000
5. Oregon State--Portland/Vancouver/Salem CSA 3,280,000
6. UNLV--Las Vegas/Henderson CSA. 2,317,000
7. Fresno State--Fresno/Madera/Hanford CSA. 1,317,000
8. New Mexico--Albuquerque/Santa Fe/Las Vegas CSA. 1,162,000
9. Hawaii--Urban Honolulu MSA 1,016,000
10. Boise State--Boise/Mountain Home/Ontario CSA 850,000
11. Air Force--Colorado Springs MSA 755,000
12. Nevada--Reno/Carson City/Fernley CSA 657,000
13. Colorado State--Fort Collins/Loveland MSA 366,000
14. Utah State--Logan/Preston MSA 147,000
15. Wyoming--Laramie, Albany County 39,000
16. Washington State--Pullman 34,500

According to the Census Bureau:

Pullman is not part of the Spokane Metro.
Fort Collins and Colorado Springs are not part of the Denver Metro
Laramie is not part of the Cheyenne Metro.
Logan is not part of the Salt Lake City Metro.
But Corvallis is part of the Portland Metro.

PAC-12 Bowls

NY6-Bowl (Rose Bowl)  
Sun Bowl
Alamo Bowl
Holiday Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Independence Bowl
LA Bowl

MWC Bowls

LA Bowl
New Mexico Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii if bowl eligible)
Arizona Bowl

Update: Bowl tie-ins are year-to-year negotiable.  Consider the old PAC-12 bowl structure gone after the 2023-24 season.

No, Virginia, the PAC-12 (PAC-X) is not dead.

 A couple of months ago when it appeared that the four-corners schools were considering dumping the PAC-12, it was believed that if only Colorado left, the conference would survive.  I see no reason to doubt that.  I think that the conference will survive.  It is not as strong as the Big 12 or the other four power conferences, but it is not as weak as the Mountain West or American Conferences.  Washington, Oregon, Utah and Arizona State will be the leaders of the conference going forward.  That is not a bad place to be even if they lose Arizona.  The other four schools are the ones they need to keep.

One must remember that doom and gloom of any sort are what sell papers, or in the 2023 vernacular, drive people to your website.  I can be a little more level headed as I do not rely on this blog for my living or even for my side hustle.  I am going to try and give an honest answer about going forward.

As I have mentioned in a prior blog, you don't replace the 2nd largest media market.  Losing USC and UCLA hurts bad.  But Colorado is replaceable. There is no need for panic in PAC-land.

That being said; dragging their feet on a media deal, and trying to push for money that isn't there is the biggest issue for the conference and its schools.  If the PAC-12 is indecisive, fan bases and supporters will grow impatient and that will cause schools to leave.  That is the biggest issue the PAC-12, or now -9, faces.  They have been too greedy.  I'm not suggesting the conference settle for less than they deserve.  But trying to get close to what they would have gotten had USC and UCLA remained could leave them with nothing.

As far as expansion goes, there is now a new top school.  Colorado State.  Adding the Rams will keep a presence on the Front Range, with access to Front Range money and the Front Range recruiting base.  But going to 16 and having a pseudo-merge with the Mountain West could water-down the brand too much.  San Diego State is a good add.  SMU is a good add.  But don't go crazy.  Be you, get what you can get, and learn to be happy with it.  Win games, then the conference will survive and thrive and get the money for their schools that they deserve.

Four Schools who Could Add Football and Join the Mountain West Conference

Unless the PAC-12 completely collapses, which does not seem imminent, it appears that the Mountain West will have a decision on who to add.  Unless they add Sacramento State, UC Davis and Portland State, there will be some smaller markets to choose from.  Here are some schools that do not have football but if added would make good additions.  Two have played football and two have not.  I am not advocating for any specific school, nor am I predicting success.  If these schools add football, there would likely be some lean years before they find success.  Full disclosure, I am an UN Omaha alum.

1. Long Beach State.

Metro: Los Angeles CSA
Population: ~13 Million
Undergraduate Students: ~34,000
Last Played Football: 1991
Why they stopped playing football: Financial shortfalls, California budget crisis, lack of success on the field and the death of coach George Allen.
Does their stadium still stand?  Yes, they used to play near campus at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Long Beach, but that is now too small for FBS football.  But seats could be added to the north, south and east to make the stadium large enough.  The team could also play at Dignity Health Sports Park (home of the LA Galaxy) or at SoFi Stadium (unlikely), at least temporarily.  At one time, LB State played at Anaheim Stadium (home of the Angels), both Dignity Health and SoFi Stadiums are closer to the LB State campus.

Biggest Rival in the MWC: San Jose State (Assuming Fresno State and SDSU leave.)

Even though they are in the same metro as UCLA and USC, there is plenty of room for 49er football to come back as a member of the Mountain West Conference.  Their facilities for other sports are top notch.  LA is a large enough market to support another FBS program.

2. Nebraska Omaha

Metro: Omaha, Nebraska
Population: Almost 1 Million (Similar in size to Fresno)
Undergraduate Students: ~12,000
Last Played Football: 1990
Why they stopped playing football: A compromise when the school wanted to move to Division I for men's hockey.  Football and wrestling were stopped.
Does the stadium still stand? Yes, Al F. Caniglia field still exists, but some of the stands have been demolished.  There is likely room to rebuild a new stadium of 15,000+.  However, there is also likely some storefront somewhere near campus where a new stadium can be built and replace some blight.  There may be room near the basketball/hockey arena for a modest stadium.  It is possible, but unlikely that they would be able to share Morrison stadium with Creighton.  But it is possible and more likely that they could use Werner Park, home of the Omaha Storm Chasers of the International League (AAA).

Biggest Rival in the MWC: Wyoming and/or Air Force

Would Omaha Football be in the Shadow of UN Lincoln? Yes and no. UN Omaha would likely be a good landing spot for prospective Cornhuskers who are not satisfied with lack of playing time or who are not able to walk on.  It is unlikely that someone who is offered by both schools would chose Omaha.  There could be some successful underclassmen at UN Omaha who would transfer to UN Lincoln.  When UN Omaha had football, there was a similar relationship that BYU had with Rick's College.  The loss of UN Omaha football could be part of the reason UN Lincoln isn't as successful as they used to be.  UN Omaha athletes would not get the NIL money that UN Lincoln gets.  Lincoln is 50 miles to the east. 

Omaha and Eastern Nebraska have had enough growth to again visit the question of returning UNO to the gridiron.  As a member of the MWC, there were be enough money to add a women's Title IX sport, like gymnastics or Women's Hockey.

3. Utah Valley

Metro: Salt Lake City CSA
Population:  2.7 Million
Undergraduate Students: 40,500
Last Played Football: Never
Why they have not played football.  UVU has not been a four year college for very long, it became a four-year college in 1987.  It has grown to the behemoth college it is today, with the largest undergraduate enrollment in Utah.  There has been talk of starting a football program many times.

Where would they play?  Likely at the soccer stadium, or a local high school at first, or at BYU.  (Not at LaVell Edwards Stadium, but at what used to be Provo High School.) The school has some space at what used to be a steel mill a few miles up I-15 where a stadium would likely be built.  The university has built a soccer complex on the site

Biggest Rival in the MWC: Utah State

Coming in as an FCS program first and joining the Big Sky Conference is likely cost prohibitive, but the MWC and UVU could be a good match.  But being in the shadow of BYU would be a detriment until the population grows a little more.

4. Alaska Anchorage

Metro: Anchorage
Population: ~400,000 (Larger than Reno, smaller than Honolulu.)
Undergraduate Students: 18,000
Last played football: Never
Why they have not played football: As a Division II program, the cost of football is too high, when considering the travel costs to Anchorage.  They will not start football until they can be a Division I school and the MWC.

Where they would play?  The Sullivan Arena is used for the Great Alaska Shootout.  There is a small stadium to the west.  When Anchorage was trying to host the Olympics, the plan was to expand that stadium for opening and closing ceremonies.  It wouldn't be difficult or very costly to expand that stadium to 20,000.  However, the goal may be to get a place similar to the Fargodome and take weather out of the equation.  But for an Alaskan, if you let the weather get you, you have to move back to the lower 48.  A real Alaskan would make a Packers fan look like a wimp.

Biggest Rival in the MWC: Hawai'i

This is a longshot, but could end up as a hidden gem.  Recruiters from other colleges rarely visit Alaska unless there is a generational talent.  Many talented kids in Alaska simply don't get the chance to play college football.  According to NFL.com, there have been 10 former and current players who have hailed from Alaska.  A local college football program would motivate more high school kids from Alaska to seriously consider football and increase the number of Alaskans in the NFL.