How the Mountain West might expand

With the PAC-12 looking for replacements for USC and UCLA, and possible further expansion of the Big 12, it appears that a decimation of the MWC is inevitable.  I think the MWC will eventually lose 4 or 5 schools, but what ends up happening is still in process and changes every day. 

I was a proponent of the Mountain West adding UTSA before the American did.  That was two years ago.  But, who listens. Now who is going to leave the American for the Mountain?  Probably no one.  Sometimes you pay the price when you are not proactive. Proactivity is not the MWC DNA, a trait they learned from the PAC-12.  If it was, Boise State and Fresno State would have been added years before Utah, BYU and TCU left when everyone else was at 12 schools

I know some snarky commenter is going to say, the New Mountain West will include Stanford, California, Oregon State and Washington State after the PAC-12 collapses.  That the MW will have nothing to fret about.  I will eat a bag of kale chips if that happens.  It probably won't. Someone will figure out how work it out.

I don't have access to the same analytics that the real MWC would have access to.  I spent an entire home sick day figuring this out.

My analysis included the following: Market size, facilities, football, men's basketball, women's and Olympic sports, academic reputation based upon US News and World Report, and weather or not they play in the shadow of larger programs.  I did not consider any college that resides in a city of less than 100,000.  I was surprised by the final outcome.  Here it is.

The Top 4 prospects for expansion

1. University of Texas at El Paso.  Surprised?  I'm not.  UTEP is a natural fit for the MWC and arguably should have been included when the conference first formed. They have a history in Men's Basketball and Track and Field.  It is tough to beat six national championships, which their track and field team boasts.  The Front Range 4 of the Mountain West Conference (Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico and Wyoming) have rivalries with UTEP going back to the old WAC days.  New Mexico even longer.  UTEP is isolated for the rest of Texas and is not likely to be in the shadow of the big schools in the state: Texas, Texas A&M, etc.  These school rarely go all the way to El Paso to recruit.  The biggest threat from the Power 5 in El Paso, is Arizona, which is much closer than any of the big Texas schools. Oh yea, the Sun Bowl is in El Paso. There are two things that drag UTEP down. First, they are in a smaller market, but at a little short of 1 million, it's larger than most on this list.  The second is that their academic reputation is less than stellar.  The second they can fix.  Overall, if the Mountain West only adds one school, UTEP is the logical first choice.

The main arguments against UTEP are two-fold.   First, while they have a great history, their present is lack-luster.  They may make bowl games, but they are rarely a top-25 program.  Even in their more storied basketball and track programs, their success was decades ago.  While their distance from the rest of Texas keeps them out of the shadow of Texas A&M and Texas and other such schools, it also isolates them for the sweet, sweet recruiting base that is most of Texas.  Therefore, they offer no recruiting advantages.  But considering all other things, UTEP is the best option for the Mountain West Conference.

2. University of Montana.  In addition to being among the athletic elites in the Big Sky Conference, Montana is a good academic school, which attracts a nationwide if not world-wide student body.  Their facilities are already FBS ready, and they regularly sell out the 25,000 seat Washington-Grizzly Stadium.  They have been regulars in the NCAA tourney, making 12 appearance. Not too shabby, but second to Weber State.  They fit naturally in the geography of the Mountain West Conference.  Montana's athletic director has said publicly that they are not interested in a move to the FBS at this time, but under the right circumstances, in a situation where they could succeed, don't count on them saying no.  No doubt the Grizzlies are a good fit for the Mountain West.  The biggest weakness is the smaller market and the distance of Missoula from other large cities in the State of Montana.  Given it's academics and tradition of excellence, Montana is a great choice for the Mountain West.

It has also been said that Montana will not join another conference without Montana State.  That was their excuse for not joining the WAC 13 years ago.  That may not be true today.  The Brawl of the Wild could still happen.  That would also not prohibit Montana State form having another cash grab game against another FBS school, but that would prohibit Montana from playing another FCS school  That would complicate the rivalry.  The real reason was likely that Montana would not have made enough money joining a WAC made up of mostly other Big Sky rivals.  That money would not have been there for them at the time.  It was the right decision for them to remain in the Big Sky Conference then.  But what is different now?  Boise State doesn't seem to be getting interest from the PAC-12 or Big 12.  It also seems as if Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State and Wyoming will remain in the Mountain West forever.  That may make the money equation better.

3. Sacramento State.  This is probably a surprise to most readers, but not a surprise to me.  Sacramento, while not quite the population of San Diego comes close. California's capitol city is the 2nd largest metro without an FBS football program.  Sacramento State has a stellar academic program, like most schools in California.  They have an FBS-ready stadium, which means they will not have to expand to move up.  Their success on the gridiron is a recent phenomenon, they have been successful in some Olympic sports, especially track and field.  While they are close geographically to California and Stanford, those schools have been so poor on in football in recent years, there is an opportunity to strike and gain some recruiting advantages.  Their biggest weakness is a lack NCAA men's basketball tournament appearances and their small basketball arena, one that not even Air Force would be jealous of.  They would need to pay more attention to the basketball program if they join the MWC.  They may have to work out a scheduling agreement with the Kings for use of the Golden 1 Center for some games.  Despite lack of success in on the basketball court, markets are going to rule the day.  Sacramento is an untapped market at the FBS level and that makes Sacramento State a solid choice, but probably not a top choice.

4.  Weber State University.  This is a surprise.  Please forget about my affiliation to WSU.  I am an alum.  I tried not to let my bias influence my analysis.  But hear me out.  The Wildcats are a basketball power and most teams dread a trip to the Purple Palace.  In basketball WSU has 23 Big Sky Conference championships, 16 NCAA appearances, twice advancing to the Sweet 16.  Their Alumni include Damian Lillard, Bruce Collins, Willie Sorjourner and Wat Mikasa.  Their basketball resume is as good as anyone currently in the MWC.  They have taken steps to keep things interesting before basketball season begins. They have been to the NCAA playoffs 6 of the past 7 seasons. There are upgrades in process to Stuart Stadium, which seats about 17,000.  They have grown to one of the largest campuses in the west, giving them a large alumni base.  Their biggest strike against them very large shadow of Utah and BYU.  And there is one other elephant in the room to discuss.

My original analysis has them at #2, but I had to bring them down a little.  Many readers will say that Utah State would block Weber State going into the Mountain West.  How would USU do that other than to convince the other members of the conference to vote against them?  Like every other school in the state, USU has only one vote on the board of regents.  That would be no avenue except as a symbolic gesture.  If Weber State has a good case to join, USU's objection would only be a symbolic voice.  I don't think USU could block Weber State even if they wanted to.  But do they have to?

Utah State is located in Logan, which is not part of the Greater Salt Lake Combined Statistical area.  When traveling to Logan, you rarely fly directly there.  Go to Expedia and see where it takes you?  That is right, to Salt Lake City.  The drive from Salt Lake City to Logan goes through Ogden.  Logan isn't large enough to employ a large share of Utah State's alumni. Most find jobs in Salt Lake.  Utah State already provides access to the Salt Lake media market.  And therefore, the MWC already has access to the rich Salt Lake recruiting base. Therefore, Weber State would not provide an additional market or recruiting base to Mountain West Schools that they don't already have.  It's an Oz/Tin Man argument, similar to the PAC-12 adding BYU or Colorado State or the Big 12 adding Rice or the Big 10 adding Pitt.  Utah State doesn't have to block Weber State. Their location is already an argument against it. Even so, there are advantages to having two schools close to each other.  The MW used to have BYU and Utah.  The WAC used to have both TCU and SMU.  Wyoming and Colorado State are close to each other.  For road trips in some sports, you can visit both schools the same weekend and stay in the same hotel, cutting down on travel expenses and travel fatigue.

Even if you only count Ogden/Layton by itself, this would still be the third largest market I considered.  (Except for some basketball-only schools)  Here you also have a proven ability to succeed consistently at the FCS level, and a large alumni base.  It has also the community support to succeed at a higher level.  Weber State may not be a top choice, but they are a solid one.  They haven't switch conferences in my lifetime and would probably bring stability as well.

The next four best targets 

5. University of California at Davis.  UCD is also in the Sacramento area.  They reason they are lower than Sacramento State is because their football stadium only seats 10,000.  While it is expandable to over 20,000, it will take some cash to do it.  It would be much cheaper than building anew, but it would not be free.  At least they have a better basketball arena than Sacramento State.  But have also been mostly a no-show in the NCAA tournament.  2016-17 is the answer to this trivial pursuit question. That is UCD's one and only NCAA men's basketball tournament appearance. Otherwise, they are very equal to Sacramento State, including academic.  In many books, perhaps slightly better.  If one of the other schools higher on this list does not want to join the MWC, then UCD is a solid choice.  Plus you get the two schools in the same market travel cost advantage if you also add Sacramento State.

6. New Mexico State.  They are lower on this list for two reasons.  One is that their academic reputation is not quite up to others on this list.  The other is that the recent hazing scandal will likely be the most brutal penalty on a school since the SMU death penalty.  This one self-imposed.  The Aggies have a good basketball history, too.  In football, two bowl games in the past five seasons is nothing to sneeze at.  That as an independent after the Sun Belt decided that it was too costly to keep Idaho and NMSU.  But today, they are members of Conference USA with their arch-rival UTEP and no longer independent in football and a member of the WAC in other sports.  They should get extra credit for lasting that long in independence.  They should be a force in Conference USA.   Technically Las Cruces is in the El Paso metro, the MWC is unlikely to add both.  As a side note, it would be funny if the MWC adds UC Davis and NMSU to the conference, you would have three schools who call themselves Aggies.  One a bull, one a horse and one a cowboy.  New Mexico State was likely the school that kept the WAC alive after the last round of conference expansion.

7. Eastern Washington.  There are two reasons why EWU is lower on this list.  First is Spokane and the 2nd is Gonzaga.  The Zags do not play football, which gives the Eagles a chance at recruiting in football locally.  (If Gonzaga kept football, EWU wouldn't be in the Big Sky Conference.)  While the Eagles have recently held their own on the court, but still not the power that the Zags are.  EWU has only three NCAA tournament appearances.  It should have been 4 but  they didn't survive this year's Big Sky Tournament.  It is what has happened on the turf at Roos Field that makes them special.  There are already plans afoot to expand the stadium to 18,000+.  If a school wants the MWC, they are trying to make a case for it.  But that was announced 10 years ago and it has yet to happen.  It can happen to an FCS school without FBS money, just look at Montana and Montana State.  Some things take cash and sometimes raising enough cash takes time, especially when a pandemic is afoot.  Would the prospects of moving up put some urgency into the alumni base and community?  That remains to be seen.

8.  North Dakota State.  They are the Alabama of the FCS, why are they not higher on my list?  Yes, they are in a small market, but Fargo is larger than Missoula.  They play in the 25,000 seat Fargodome, which is probably the nicest FCS facility.  But three big issues where Montana is a solid choice and NDSU is a weaker choice.  First, they have 4 NCAA men's tournament appearances compared to Montana's 12.  NDSU has never advanced to the Sweet 16.  Second, their academics are a tier lower than Montana.  While yes, they are in a larger market than Montana, Fargo is not so much larger than Missoula where it would make up the difference when it comes to media market options, NIL and recruiting.  NDSU can't do much about the market size, they can work on the academics and work on sports other than football.  But on the plus side, they have shown Idaho how to use a dome, and they don't play basketball there.

I previously wrote a post about non-football schools that could add football and be of value to the Mountain West Conference, they would all be below North Dakota State.  If the MW loses four or more schools, I will also write a post about basketball-only schools.

Not making the cut, but considered

Portland State University.  PSU is in the largest market not only in the west, but in the entire country that does not have at least one FBS school nearby.  Oregon State and Oregon are as close to Portland as Baltimore is to Philly.  You can't really count Corvallis and Eugene as being in the Portland metro.  But, a lot of grads from Oregon and Oregon State find jobs after graduation in Portland.  This is not the reason why.  

The largest problem is no on-campus football field and a smaller basketball arena.  They no longer share a stadium with the Portland Timbers of Major League Soccer.  That hasn't been a thing for years.  Lately, they have been playing about 20 miles away in Hillsboro.  PSU also lacks any sort of athletic reputation.  Sure, it wasn't long ago that they were a Division II school.  But most colleges that are serious about athletics are more successful once they move up.  If Portland State took athletics seriously, they would have better facilities, closer to campus.  Perhaps the Timbers would let them move back to Providence Park (fat chance of that happening.) and the Blazers would let them play some games at Moda Arena (chances are only slightly better.)  But the school simply doesn't put a premium price on sports.  That's OK.  It's still a good school.  I may have a future post about gridiron football vs. Major League Soccer and why more colleges don't play in NBA arenas and visa versa.  Portland State will be the poster child.

California Polytechnic University at San Luis Obispo.  Alex G. Spanos Stadium is one of the nicest facilities at the FCS level, and would likely easily be expandable to 30,000.  But SLO brags about being halfway between Los Angeles and San Francisco, which really means they are in the middle of nowhere.  LA and City by the bay are not exactly next-door neighbors.  I also didn't consider any schools in towns less than 100,000.  I had to draw the line somewhere.  SLO simply fell below the line.  Too bad, its a nice town.  It would be a great place for a bowl game.  But you are not going to land a big media deal by adding SLO when you already have Laramie.  There are only so many small towns a FBS conference can have.  The MWC already has enough.

Montana State.  Pretty much the same argument as Cal Poly, only its colder there.  Good school, nice town, great spot for a summer vacation, just too small and too far away from something better.  If Billings were 100 miles closer, then maybe.  But at least the fishing in Bozeman is good.  I should note that Bozeman is a growing town, and a place to consider living if your job and the job of your significant other is 100% remote and likely to state that way.  That is, if you don't mind enduring those Southern Montana winters.

Other possibilities, but not written about in this post include: Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa and Louisiana Tech.  Geography will prevent them from poaching more of Conference USA or the Sun Belt.

Why SMU rules and Boise State drools in the PAC-12 Expansion rumors.

 The PAC-12 appears to be getting back to 12 with the addition of Southern Methodist and San Diego State.

Originally, the idea was that the PAC-12 would not add new schools whiteout a new media deal.  However, it appears that the media partners of the PAC-12 conference want the expansion before the deal, or the two go hand in hand.  It is also clear that the new media deal is based upon market size. Based upon recent athletic performance, this does not make sense.  However, we are talking about media dollars, and that is the most important thing.

The math checks out.

Let's face it, you do not lose the entire Los Angeles metro area and try to make it up by adding a market approximately 4% of the size.  SMU doesn't own Dallas, and really no college does.  But they are a presence there.  In the early 80's, SMU was big enough to share Texas Stadium with the Cowboys.  San Diego and Dallas together are still smaller than LA, but in adding these markets, you are making up almost 2/3 of the iPhones lost when USC and UCLA left for the Big 10.

Why not Boise State? 

Trouble is, Boise State has put a lot of money and effort into building a top tier sports program.  Boise is an isolated city that doesn't have a lot of sports and entertainment options.  Even the NBA G-League has abandoned the Treasure Valley.  They lost their A-level minor league team.  All they have occupying their sports venues is a tier-3 minor league hockey team.  Not a lot of love for one of the fastest growing cities in the US.

The market in Boise has some growing to do.  The Boise Area has the same population Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo combined had in the 1970s.  When the ABA folded, all Utah had was minor league baseball and hockey.  But they did have the Cougars and the Utes.  The PAC-12 wasn't going to add Utah in the 1970s, when Maricopa County had nearly twice the population and was growing faster.  Boise State is in the same position Utah was in those days.  They were a good choice, there were better choices.  Utah's day came about 40 year later.  If college sports still exists in 40 years, Boise State will be in a good position.

It's not over for Boise yet.  The PAC-12 may not be done and the Big 12 may not be done either.  Boise State CAN play with the big boys.  They do so every season.  I suggest some patience for those who follow the Blue.  Your time will eventually come if it does not come tomorrow.

What is next for the MWC?  That will come in a later post.

The Eight Metro Areas that are Jealous About the A's Leaving Oakland for Las Vegas

There are seven Combined Statistical Areas that have a larger population than Las Vegas with sports fans frustrated that the Oakland Athletics appear to be headed for Sin City.  First, lets talk about Las Vegas to understand why.  When we talk about major sports franchises we are talking about the 4 major sports leagues in the United States: Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, National Football League, National Basketball Association and Major League soccer.

Las Vegas has a population of 2.3 million people.  They have a cost of living that is 103% or 3% higher than the national average.  Their average household income is roughly 61,000 per year, compared to the national household income of 54,000 per year.  Las Vegas has two major sports franchises, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Vegas Golden Knights.  Both play in relatively new stadia.  There are five cities smaller than Las Vegas with two sports franchises: Cincinnati, Nashville, Milwaukee, New Orleans and Buffalo.  The smallest city, so far, with 3 or more major sports teams is Pittsburgh with 3 of the 5.  The smallest city with Baseball is Milwaukee.  The AAA Las Vegas Aviators play at Summerlin South which seats 10,000 and can be used as a temporary home.  Vegas has grown by 1.25% since the 2020 census.  The closest Major League Baseball teams to Vegas are the Los Angels Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels.  LA is approximately a 4 hour drive to Los Vegas.

Here are eight cities that are currently larger than Las Vegas in Population and are possibly just as deserving as Las Vegas for the location of a major league baseball franchise.

8. Indianapolis, Indiana has a population of 2.5 million people.  Their cost of living is 84% of the national average.  Their household income is 61,000 per year.  This means that an Indianapolis family has more disposable income than a Las Vegas family.  They have two major league franchises, the Colts of the NFL and the Pacers of the NBA.  The Colts play in the 14-year-old Lucas Oil Stadium, which is about halfway through it's life, the Pacers play in the 24-year-old Gaimbridge Arena which is the 12th oldest in the NBA.  If baseball does move to Indiana soon, they will soon have to compete with the Pacers for stadium funds.  Indy has a AAA team, the Indians, who play at Victory Field which seats 13,750 people.  The site is large enough for the current stadium to expand for a Major League team.  Since the 2020 census, Indianapolis has grown by 0.62%, therefore it is not growing as fast as Las Vegas.  Vegas could grow to become larger than Indy before 2030.  The closest Major League Baseball franchise to Indy is the Cincinnati Reds at just over an hour away.  It is possible the Reds could block a move to Indianapolis, but not likely.  

7. Columbus, Ohio has a population of 2.5 million, but slightly larger than Indianapolis.  Their cost of living is 86%.  Their average household income is roughly 58,000 per year.  Likely skewed downward by Ohio State University students.  Columbians have less disposable income than Vegans.  Columbus has two major sports franchises, the Columbus Blue Jackets of the NHL and the Columbus Crew of Major League Soccer.  The Blue Jackets play in the 23-year-old Nationwide arena.  The Crew recently moved to new stadium in 2021.  The Columbus Clippers play in 10,100 seat Huntington Park which could be used as a temporary stadium, but is not on a large enough site to be expandable to Major League size.  Columbus has grown at 0.46% since the 2020 census.  Like Indy, Las Vegas' population will likely pass Columbus in the future.  The Cincinnati Reds are also the closest Major League Franchise to Columbus, at nearly two hours away.  Columbus is also near Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

6. San Antonio, Texas has a population of 2.6 million.  Their cost of living is 91% of the national average.  Their average household income is 55,000.  Theirs is skewed downward by the large military population.  San Antonio is home to only one major sports franchise, the San Antonio Spurs.  The AT&T Center was open in 2002.  The San Antonio Mission play AA ball at the Nelson W. Wolf Municipal Stadium, which has 6,200 seats and an outfield area that can seat 3,000 fans.  It is on a lot large enough to expand.  Major League baseball can't be played at the Alamodome as the right field fence would be too close to home plate.  San Antonio, Texas is the 2nd largest metro area in the United States with only one major sports franchise.  San Antonio is growing at a rate of 1.7% since the 2020 census  and is likely to remain larger than Las Vegas.  It is the fastest growing city on this list.  The closest Major League Franchise is the Houston Astros, about 3 hours away. 

5. Sacramento, California has a population of 2.7 million.  Their cost of living is 120% of the national average.  Their household income is a little over 71,000 which means that the average household has less money to spend on baseball.  Like San Antonio, there is only an NBA franchise in the city.   The Kings play in the Golden 1 Center, which has been operating since 2016.  There have been multiple efforts to lure the Athletics to the Capital City in the past, up to and including building the foundation of a major league park near the old Arco Arena where the Kings used to play.  There were once plans to promote the Sacramento Republic to Major League Soccer, but those plans fell through during the COVID-19 Pandemic.  Sacramento is home of the AAA River Cats who play in the 14,014 Seat Sutter Health Park, which is the 2nd largest AAA stadium.  (The largest we will talk about later.)  The stadium sits on a site large enough for a Major League Baseball stadium, but there is no room to expand the current stadium due to its location on the site.  Originally, I think there were plans to put a new arena at this location for the Kings, who ended up building at another site.  Sacramento's population is growing at 0.62%, but will likely remain larger than Las Vegas for a few decades.  Sacramento is the largest city in the United States to host only one major sports franchise.  Outside of the A's, the next closest franchise is the San Francisco Giants.  It is nearly 2 hours from Sacramento to San Francisco.  It is unlikely that the Giants would block moving the As to Sacramento.

4. Salt Lake City, Utah has a population of 2.7 million, but has recently surpassed Sacramento in population.  The cost of living is slightly higher than Las Vegas at 104% of the national average.  The average household income is around 64,000.  Salt Lake is home to two top-level sports franchises, the Jazz of the NBA and Real Salt Lake of Major League Soccer.  The Jazz play in the Delta Center, which seats 18,307 and currently the 3rd oldest arena in the NBA.  Real Salt Lake plays in the suburbs at America First Field in Sandy which seats 20,000.  It is the 5th-oldest soccer-specific stadium in Major League Soccer.  Salt Lake City hosts the AAA Salt Lake Bees whose home field has 14,511 seats and is the largest AAA stadium.  But the Bees will move to a new stadium in the Daybreak section of South Jordan, Utah.  The details of the new stadium have yet to be released, but the new site is large enough for a major league stadium.  Salt Lake City is growing at 1.67% since the 2020 census and is the 3rd fastest growing large city in the United States.  It is unlikely that Las Vegas will ever grow larger than Salt Lake.  When the Jazz first moved to Salt Lake City in 1979, it was in the smallest metro area to host a major sports franchise outside of Green Bay.  Now there are 12 major sports metros smaller than Salt Lake.  (Due to expansion, relocation and metro shrink as well as growth in Salt Lake.)  The closest Major League baseball franchise to Salt Lake City is the Colorado Rockies, but it is an 8 hour drive to get there making it the most isolated city on this list.*

3. Charlotte, North Carolina has a population of 2.8 million.  The cost of living is 97% of the national average with the average household income at 68,000, which translates to a similar disposable income level to Las Vegas.  Charlotte is the only city on this list with three major sports franchises; The Carolina Panthers, the Charlotte Hornets and Charlotte FC call Charlotte home.  The Panthers and Charlotte FC both play at Bank of America Stadium which is approaching 38 years in operation.  There are no plans for a new stadium for either brand of football.  The Spectrum Center for the Hornets has been in use since 2008.  There is a AAA baseball team in Charlotte, the Knights.  They play at 10,500 seat Truist Field, which is on the other side of the parking structure for the Panthers.  The site does not look big enough to support a Major League expansion, but a talented architect may make it work.  Charlotte has grown 1.51% since the 2020 census, the 4th fastest growing large city in the United States.  There are two US metro areas smaller than Charlotte with 3 sports franchises.   The closest Major League franchise to Charlotte is the Atlanta Braves, which will take nearly 4 hours to reach by car.

2. Portland, Oregon has a population of 3.3 million in the metro area.  The cost of living is 132% of the national average, the highest cost of living on this list.  The average household income is 78,000, which is also the highest on this list.  Portland is the home of the NBA's Trailblazers and MLS's Timbers.  The Blazers play in the Moda Center, their home since 1995.  The Timbers play at Providence Park which is someone near 100 years old, but one half of the stadium was built in 2019.  Sounds odd, but it is considered on of the best stadia in Major League Soccer.  There is A-level ball played in the Portland area.  Since the Timbers turned Providence Park into a soccer-only field, the AAA team moved to Albuquerque and became the Isotopes.  The Hillsboro Hops play at Ron Tonkin Field about 20 miles west of Portland.  The stadium has 4,500 seats.  The multi-use park is also the home of the Portland State Vikings football team.  Actually, the east side of the grandstand is for football, while the west side is the 3rd-base site of the baseball stadium.  But there is a pier on the Willamette River where a Major League Stadium could be built closer to downtown.  Portland is growing slowly, by 0.14% since the 2020 Census.  The nearest MLB team to Portland is the Seattle Mariners, which will take about 3 hours by car.

1. Orlando, Florida has a population of 4.3 million in the metro area.  Orlando has about the same cost of living as Las Vegas.  The average household income is around 59,000.  Orlando is the most populated metro area in the US that only has two major sports franchises, the Orlando Magic of the NBA and Orlando City SC of Major League Soccer.  The Magic play in Amway Center which has been around since 2010.  Exploria Stadium was built for Soccer and opened in 2017.  Orlando is the only metro on this list that does not have a minor league baseball team at any level.  But there are several teams that have spring training in central Florida with the Braves and Astros playing spring ball near Orlando.  The metro has grown at 1.65% since the 2020 Census, making it the second fastest growing large city in the United States.  While Orlando has a lot going for it, it is only an hour from St. Petersburg, home of the Tampa Bay Rays, making it the least isolated.  Between Orlando and Tampa, all five major sports leagues are represented.  With Tampa hosting Baseball, Football and Hockey.  Orlando is also the only city on this list with a real grass-roots effort to bring Major League baseball to town.  It is not likely, but possible the Rays organization would block an expansion team or a move to the Magic Kingdom.  Orlando is now larger than Denver and Minneapolis which have all five sports franchises.

Note: I did not put Austin, Nashville, Raleigh-Durham, Virginia Beach or Louisville on this list because they are smaller than Las Vegas.

*As Patman93 correctly points out, Seattle is currently the most isolated Major League team and will be unless Portland or Vancouver, Canada gets a franchise.

A Break from Sports. The Muppets Remake the Princess Bride

Thanks to my daughter, Emma, who came up with this idea, I present the cast of a remake of The Princess Bride.  The cast is, of course, the Muppets.

 

Robin the Frog as the Grandson

Gonzo as Grandfather/Narrator

Kermit the Frog as Westley

Miss Piggy as Buttercup, the Princess Bride

Pepe the Prawn as Inigo Montoya

Sweetums as Fezzik

Link Hogthrob as Prince Humperdink

Rizzo the Rat at Vezzini

Uncle Deadly as Count Rugen

Honeydew and Beaker as The Albino (and his assistant)

Rowlf as Miracle Max

Janice as Valerie

Swedish Chef as the Very Impressive Clergyman

Statler and Waldorf as the Ancient Boer(s)

Fozzie as Yellin

Floyd Pepper as The King

Annie Sue as the Queen

My Idea of Bowl Game Reform

 Bowls must fit the following criteria:

1. Must be played in a warm-weather city, unless played in the afternoon.
2. Must be played in a stadium whose primary use is football.  Can be a dual-use or multi-use stadium as long as college or professional football is regularly played at the stadium.
3. Must be played in a stadium with more than 34,999 regular seats
4. Most only be one bowl game played at the stadium

This will eliminate the following 13 bowls or slots for 26 teams This fits along with what happened in 2022. 8 teams for the playoffs.  17 teams were 6-6 or worse.  Here are the bowls elmiminated.

Myrtle Beach Bowl (Stadium Size)
New Orleans Bowl (Multiple Bowls)
Cheez-Its Bowl (Multiple Bowls)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Baseball Stadium)
Camellia Bowl (Stadium Size)
Hawaii Bowl (Stadium Size)
Boca Raton Bowl (Stadium Size)
Fenway Bowl (Baseball Stadium)
First Responder Bowl (Stadium Size)
Lending Tree Bowl (Stadium Size)
Gasparilla Bowl (Multiple Bowls)
Bahamas Bowl (Stadium Size)
Frisco Bowl (Soccer Stadium)

Bowl Games that would still be played but could be moved different stadiums:

Military Bowl to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore from Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis due to stadium size.
Holiday Bowl to Snapdragon Stadium from PetCo Park to move from a baseball stadium to a football stadium
Pinstripe Bowl to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey from Yankee Stadium to move from a baseball stadium to a football stadium.  (The game could also move to SHI Stadium in Rutgers, New Jersey)
Cure Bowl to FBC Mortgage Stadium from Exploria stadium to move from a soccer stadium to a football stadium

Contingent Bowl games that could be organized if there are not enough bowl games for all 7-5 teams.  In some years, there may not be enough bowls for all 7-5 teams with this current list.  Each conference could have a contingency for such, provided the game is played in a stadium that will qualify.  According to applying the future playoffs in these years 

Bowl Eligibility.  7 wins and a winning record in conference will lead to an automatic qualification.  7 wins would make a team eligible but now guaranteed.  6-6 will be eligible if there are no other 7 win teams available.

Now, I have gone through an exercise to see if this will work based upon the 2022-23 bowl season.  There are some problems with this.  Mostly that there are only two independents remaining after the latest conference realignment, namely Army and Notre Dame, the latter who pals with the ACC.  Conferences will be larger, but playing with the same number of games.  I found that eliminating bowl games based upon stadium size will mostly hurt Conference USA and the Sun Belt.  That will be balanced by the number of teams from power conferences making the playoffs.

I learned that some secondary bowls from power conferences like the Gator Bowl and the Sun Bowl may end up on the short end of the stick.  This was my fourth iteration.  On the first iteration, I had South Alabama going to the Gator Bowl.  I guarantee that will never happen.  I think it is more likely that the Sun Bowl and Independence Bowl are more likely to go away than the Bahamas Bowl. 

The smaller G-5 conferences will have trouble.  The smaller bowls that play in smaller stadiums were created 

How it could have worked this year

College football playoffs

First Round Bye (Top 4 conference champions)

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Clemson
4. Utah

Other Qualifiers

TCU
Ohio State
Alabama
Kansas State
Tennessee
USC
Penn State
Tulane

These take the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl

Other Bowls

Cure Bowl-Orlando, Florida
Affiliations: Sun Belt vs. Conference USA
Matchup: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA

Las Vegas Bowl-Las Vegas, Nevada
Affiliations: PAC-12 vs. SEC
Matchup: Oregon State vs. BYU

Los Angeles Bowl-Los Angeles, California
Affiliations: Mountain West vs. PAC-12
Matchup: Fresno State vs. South Alabama

New Mexico Bowl-Albuquerque, New Mexico
Affiliations: Mountain West vs. American
Matchup: Wyoming vs. East Carolina

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl-Boise, Idaho
Affiliation: Mountain West vs. MAC
Matchup: Boise State vs. Toledo

Armed Forces Bowl-Fort Worth, Texas
Affiliation: Conference USA vs. American
Matchup: North Texas vs. SMU

Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana
Affiliation: American vs. 
Matchup: Houston vs. Wake Forest

Quick Lane Bowl-Detroit, Michigan
Affiliation: MAC vs. Big 10
Matchup: Eastern Michigan vs. Marshall

Birmingham Bowl-Birmingham, Alabama
Affiliation: American vs. Conference USA
Matchup: Troy vs. Middle Tennessee

Military Bowl-Baltimore, Maryland
Affiliation: American vs. ACC
Matchup: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina

Liberty Bowl-Memphis, Tennessee
Affiliation: SEC vs. Big 12
Matchup Mississippi State vs. Liberty

Holiday Bowl-San Diego, California
Affiliation: PAC-12 vs. ACC
Matchup: Oregon vs. Norte Dame

Texas Bowl-Houston, Texas
Affiliation:  Big 12 vs. SEC
Matchup: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss

Pinstripe Bowl-East Rutherford, New Jersey
Affiliation: Big 10 vs. ACC
Matchup:  Maryland vs. Duke

Alamo Bowl-San Antonio, Texas
Affiliation: PAC-12 vs. Big 12
Matchup: Washington vs. Texas

Duke's Mayo Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina
Affiliation: ACC vs. Big 10
Matchup: Florida State vs. Iowa

Sun Bowl-El Paso, Texas
Affiliation: Pac 12 vs ACC
Matchup: UCLA vs. Louisville

Gator Bowl-Jacksonville, Florida
Affiliation: ACC vs. SEC
Matchup: NC State vs. Central Florida

Arizona Bowl-Tucson, Arizon
Affiliation: MWC vs. MAC
Matchup: Air Force vs. Toledo

Music City Bowl-Memphis, Tennessee
Affiliation: Big 10 vs SEC
Matchup: Minnesota vs. Arkansas*

ReliaQuest Bowl-Tampa, Florida
Affiliation: SEC vs. Big 10
Matchup: South Carolina vs. Illinois

Citris Bowl-Orlando, Florida
Affiliation: SEC vs. Big 10
Matchup LSU vs. Purdue

Number of 6-6 teams: 1

Invitations by Conference

American Athletic Conference

Playoff:
Tulane

Guaranteed Affiliated (7-5 or better with a winning conference record)
Central Florida (Gator vs. NC State) 
Cincinnati (Military vs North Carolina)
SMU (Armed Forces vs. North Texas)
Houston (Independence vs. Wake Forest)

At-Large (7-5 or better, but sub-500 in conference play)
East Carolina (New Mexico vs. Wyoming)

Eligible (6-6)
Memphis

Atlantic Coast Conference:

Playoff (Invited to participate in the college football playoff)
Clemson

Guaranteed Affiliated (7-5 or better with a winning conference record)
Florida State (Duke's Mayo vs. Iowa)
North Carolina (Military  vs Cincinnati)
Duke (Pinstripe vs. Maryland)

At-Large (7-5 or better, but sub-500 in conference play)
Louisville (Sun vs. UCLA)
NC State (Gator vs. East Carolina)
Wake Forest (Independence vs. Houston)

Eligible (6-6)
Syracuse 

Big 12

Playoff
TCU
Kansas State

Guaranteed Affiliated
Texas (Alamo vs. Washington)
Texas Tech (Texas vs. Ole Miss)

Eligible
Baylor
Kansas
Oklahoma

Big Ten

Playoff
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State

Guaranteed Affiliated
Purdue (Citrus vs LSU)
Illinois (ReliaQuest vs South Carolina)
Iowa (Duke's Mayo vs Florida State)
Minnesota (Music City vs Arkansas)

At-Large 
Maryland (Pinstripe vs. Duke)

Eligible
Wisconsin

Conference USA

Guaranteed Affiliated
UTSA (Cure vs. Coastal Carolina)
North Texas (Armed Forces vs. Central Florida)
Western Kentucky (New Mexico vs. SMU)
Middle Tennessee (Birmingham vs. Troy)

Eligible
UAB

Independents

At-Large
Notre Dame (Holiday vs. Oregon)
Liberty (Liberty Bowl vs. Mississippi State)
BYU (Las Vegas vs. Oregon State)

Eligible
New Mexico State
Army

Mid-American Conference

Guaranteed Affiliated
Ohio (Potato vs. Boise State)
Toledo (Arizona vs. Air Force)
Eastern Michigan (Quick Lane vs Marshall)

Eligible
Buffalo
Bowling Green
Miami (OH)

Mountain West Conference

Guaranteed Affiliated
Fresno State (LA vs. South Alabama)
Boise State (Potato vs. Ohio)
Wyoming (New Mexico vs. East Carolina)
Air Force (Arizona vs. Toledo)

Eligible
San Diego State
San Jose State
Utah State 

PAC-12

Playoff
Utah
USC

Guaranteed Affiliated
Washington (Alamo vs. Texas)
Oregon (Holiday vs. Notre Dame)
Oregon State (Las Vegas vs. BYU)
UCLA (Sun vs. Louisville)

Eligible
Washington State

SEC

Playoff
Georgia
Alabama
Tennessee

Guaranteed Affiliated
LSU (Citrus vs. Purdue)
Mississippi State (Liberty vs. Liberty)
Ole Miss (Texas vs. Texas Tech)
South Carolina (ReliaQuest vs. Illinois)

Eligible
Arkansas (Music City vs. Minnesota)
Kentucky 
Florida
Missouri

Sun Belt

Guaranteed Affiliated
Coastal Carolina (Cure vs. Kentucky)
Marshall (Quick Lane vs. Eastern Michigan)
Troy (Birmingham vs. Middle Tennessee)
South Alabama (LA vs. Fresno State)

Eligible
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Southern Mississippi

Transitioning-Not Eligible  If they were eligible, no 6-6 teams would get bowl invites.
James Madison

Thoughts on the College National Championship

Well, that was fun.  If you are a Georgia Bulldogs fan.  Otherwise, the Bulldogs won by a score more typical of a top-rate FBS school normally defeats a mid-level FCS school.  TCU was supposed to be a better opponent.  But they didn't bring their A game.  When the final gun sounded, UGA had a 58 point game.  Was it a true National Championship?

At the risk of being a critic, I must point out that the TCU Horned Frogs were not even the champion of the Big 12 Conference.  Kansas State was.  But the Wildcats didn't do so well against the SEC in the Sugar Bowl.  There were weaknesses found in the TCU armor before the end of the season.  November wasn't so good.  Beside the loss to KSU, the Frogs fended off upset bids from Texas Tech, Texas and Baylor.  They struggled in all phases of the game, but maintained their high ranking.  A 12 team playoff likely would have eliminated the Frogs in the round of 4, if they had gotten past Tulane in the first round.  (See this link.)

I suspect that if this game were played again, it would be a close one.  TCU now understands that there is a difference between preparing for a bowl game and preparing for a playoff.  In the final analysis, it can be said in short that TCU wasn't prepared.

The Big 12 finished 2-7 in bowl season.  They did not have a good showing at all.  One of those wins was TCU's shootout win over Michigan as well as the blowout loss to Georgia.  The other was Texas Tech's win over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl, which started with a touching tribute to the late Mike Leach.

If you include the future four of the Big 12, the conference adds 2 wins and and 2 losses to the conference with BYU's narrow win over SMU and Houston's win over Louisiana.  (Go/Geaux Cougars)  While Cincinnati and Central Florida found themselves on the wrong end of not so close games.  Those departing the Big 12 for the SEC didn't fare so well either.  Texas and Oklahoma both lost close games.

The American, ACC, Independents, MAC and SEC had winning bowl records by conference.  C-USA was .500.  The other conferences lost more than they won.

I am not putting too much stock into bowl performances.  With players opting out, focusing on finals, accumulation of injuries, and coaching changes, bowls don't mean what they used to.  But I will have more on that in future posts.

Where The Major Sports Leagues Will Next Expand and/or Move

List of largest markets without sports teams in each of the 5 top-tier leagues in the United State.  *Denotes a city where a franchise was once located but either moved or folded.

Largest 10 US Metros without Major League Soccer

1. Detroit
2. Phoenix
3. Cleveland
4. San Diego
5. Tampa/St. Petersburg* (Tampa Bay Mutiny folded in 2001)
6. Sacramento
7. Pittsburgh
8. San Antonio
9. Indianapolis
10. Las Vegas

Las Vegas is larger than:

Cincinnati
Nashville--Now the smallest market for Major League Soccer

Note: No Canadian Cities without Major League Soccer are large enough to appear to this list.  

MLS is currently at 29 teams.  A planned expansion to Sacramento fell through during the pandemic.  My hunch is that Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego and/or San Antonio are next to bring the league to 32 teams.  

Largest 10 US Markets without Major League Baseball

1. Orlando
2. Portland
3. Charlotte
4. Salt Lake City
5. Sacramento
6. San Antonio
7. Austin
8. Columbus
9. Indianapolis
10. Las Vegas

Las Vegas is larger than:

Cincinnati--Now the smallest market for Major League Baseball

Note: If Canadian cities were included, Montreal, home of the Expos until 2004, would be the largest city on this list.

Baseball has said they will not discuss expansion until stadiums in Oakland and Tampa are worked out.  Tampa really would not have to move very far if they use Orlando as a stopping off point.  Nashville, which is not large enough to make this list is making a bid for the Rays.  Charlotte would also work. It appears, however, that the Rays will find a way to stay put. 

Many assume the A's will head to Las Vegas, but there are better cities on this list.  But from what I can tell, the A's to Vegas is about 80% a done deal.  The site planned for the stadium will work, there is an intermediate venue plan.  But there are infrastructure issues like a plan for traffic, parking and sewer and water systems  There are better markets. Portland has an aging old mall east of the Rose district that would make a great site for a new stadium and should be the more logical next city for the A's.  Sacramento would also work.  Salt Lake City has a sports fanatic with tons of money to throw around.

As for expansion, my guess for the next baseball cities would be Charlotte and Salt Lake should the A's land in Portland and the Rays go inland.  San Antonio and Austin are also promising baseball cities.

Largest 10 US Markets without the National Footba1l League

1. Orlando
2. Portland
3. San Diego* (Chargers moved to Los Angeles in 2017)
4. St. Louis* (Rams moved to Los Angeles in 2016)
5. Salt Lake City
6. Sacramento
7. San Antonio*** (San Antonio was the temporary home of the New Orleans Saints in 2005 for 3 games)
8. Austin
9. Columbus
10. Raleigh

Raleigh is larger than:

Jacksonville
New Orleans
Buffalo
Green Bay--Now the smallest market for the National Football League

Many want to see the NFL expand to London.  Logistically this will not work unless an entire division can be located in Europe.  Teams are now chartering two airplanes when they travel.  Travel to London for 8 teams every year will be expensive.  A division in Europe would solve logistical issues for nearly half the season.

Giving San Diego and St Louis teams again I think is the next logical step if the NFL decides to expand.  San Antonio, Austin and Columbus would also work very well for future NFL franchises.

Largest 10 US Markets without the National Basketball Association

1. Seattle* (Sonics moved to Oklahoma City in 2008)
2. Tampa/St. Petersburg*** (St. Petersburg was the temporary home of the Toronto Raptors in 2020-21)
3. San Diego* (Clippers moved to Los Angeles in 1984)
4. St. Louis* (Hawks moved to Atlanta in 1968)
5. Pittsburgh** (ABA Pittsburgh Condors folded in 1972)
6. Austin
7. Columbus
8. Kansas City* (Kings moved to Sacramento in 1985)
9. Las Vegas
10. Cincinnati* (Royals moved to Kansas City/Omaha in 1972.  Team is now the Sacramento Kings.)

Cincinnati is larger than

Milwaukee
Oklahoma City
Memphis
New Orleans--Now the smallest market in the National Basketball Association

The next two cities for NBA expansion seem logical to me...Seattle and Tampa.  There is a push to put a team in Louisville, but as you can see, there are a lot of teams without basketball that are larger than Louisville.  Austin and Columbus would be very nice NBA cities.  Virginia Beach, which is also not large enough to be on this list could also be a good place for the NBA to land.  

However, many are starting to think the 82 game season is too long, there is too much tanking and there are other issues that the NBA has to work out first before expanding.  Once the NBA figures out their scheduling problems, then they can work on expansion.

Largest 10 US Markets without the National Hockey League

1. Houston
2. Atlanta* (Flames moved to Calgary in 1980. Thrashers moved to Winnipeg in 2011.)
3. Orlando
4. Cleveland** (Barons folded in 1978)
5. Portland
6. Charlotte
7. Salt Lake City
8. Sacramento
9. San Antonio
10. Austin

Austin is larger than

Columbus
Las Vegas
Raleigh
Nashville
Buffalo-->The smallest US city with an NHL team.
Ottawa
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg--Now the smallest market in the National Hockey League

Note: The largest Canadian cities not on this are not large enough to appear on this list.

If Canada gets another team, I think a 2nd team in Toronto is the most logical place.  It would be more likely to succeed than Quebec City or Hamilton.  

The situation with the Coyotes needs to be solved before expansion in the US is considered.  Kansas City is often mentioned in Hockey expansion articles, but they do not make this list.  It's not that Kansas City is a bad sports town.  I think the NHL moving the Coyotes to Kansas City would be a good move.  Not all of the cities are good for hockey. These cities, except for Cleveland, are simply growing faster than KC. San Antonio and Austin do not appear to be hockey towns.  Same with Orlando.  Portland and Salt Lake City appear to be the next best targets for Hockey beyond Houston.  If baseball beats hockey to Salt Lake, then Sacramento would be a good place.

Markets with multiple teams in the same league

New York
MLS: NYFC, New York Red Bulls
MLB: New York Yankees, New York Mets
NBA: New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets
NFL: New York Giants, New York Jets
NHL: New York Rangers, New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils

Los Angeles
MLS: Los Angeles Galaxy, LAFC
MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angels Angels
NBA: Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers
NFL: Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers
NHL: Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks

Washington/Baltimore
MLB: Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
NFL: Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens

Chicago
MLB: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox

San Francisco/San Jose/Oakland
MLB: San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics

Largest 20 Markets without any major sports franchises

1. Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Newport News, Virginia
2. Greensboro/Winston-Salem, North Carolina
3. Providence, Rhode Island
4. Richmond, Virginia
5. Louisville, Kentucky
6. Greenville, South Carolina
7. Hartford, Connecticut
8. Grand Rapids, Michigan
9. Birmingham, Alabama
10. Fresno, California
11. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
12. Fort Meyers, Florida
13. Albany, New York
14. Rochester, New York
15. Knoxville, Tennessee
16. Albuquerque, New Mexico
17. Tulsa, Oklahoma
18. Tucson, Arizona
19. El Paso, Texas
20. Sarasota, Florida