On Saturday, Utah State scored 70 points against Weber State and many Aggie fans are pleased with the results. Many Utah fans were also pleased with the 70-7 thrashing the Utes gave to the Wildcats the week before. This week, there is a lot weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth in Ute country after the Utes overtime loss to the Oregon State Beavers. OSU, lost to an FCS opponent, Eastern Washington in week 1 of the season. That same week, North Dakota State defeated Kansas State, the definding Big 12 champions.
I don't put a lot of stock into what happens when a team from the Football Bowl Subdivision meets a team from the Football Championship Subdivision, even if a team from the lower division wins. It makes for great college football drama. It is usually not a good test for the team in the upper division. These games are normally scheduled for two reasons. For the school in the lower division, it's a chance for a big 6-figure pay day and a test against competition much better than what they normally face. For the school in the lower division it normally presents a chance to get players into a game who normally would sitting on the bench, a chance to give them some real game-time experience.
However, the old adage about any given Saturday is true. Oregon State and Kansas State learned that lesson the hard way. I suppose that Utah and USU coaches should be commended for not allowing their teams to take Weber State lightly. After USU's 70-6 thrashing of Weber State, many fans on both sides are asking, "why do we even schedule these games?" Why indeed.
Aggie fans, your team will face a real challenge next week on the road against David Fales and San Jose State. While Weber fans will see the 'Cats in a winnable game the week after next when Sacramento State comes to town. You may even see the 'Cats put up a real fight against McNeese Sate on Saturday.
If you have not yet seen it, here is the ending to the Wisconsin @ Arizona State game where the Sun Devils won by 2 points. For those of you who do not know the rule, the official can breifly stop the clock to repsot the ball after the quarterback, "gave himself up" by setting the ball on the turf to center it. After a fumble, the clock is supposed to stop so that the officials can reset it. This was not just a mistake by the officials, but also a mistake by Wisconsin. They should have had an offensive lineman pounce on the ball when it was on the turf just to be certain. But if I have a decent kicker, I am not concerned about kicking from the right hash from 32 yards out. I spike the ball right there. A lesson for the future, I suppose. The game should have ended with Wisconsin attempting a game-winning field goal.
Players of the Week
Oregon State 51 Utah 48
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
Utah State 70 Weber State 6
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Wilson
WSU MVP: LB Spencer Unga
Washington State 48 Southern Utah 10
SUU MVP: QB Aaron Cantu
Conference Players of the Week
PAC-12
Oregon State QB Sean Mannion
FBS Indy
Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees
MWC
Boise State RB Jay Ajayi
Big Sky
Montana QB Jordan Johnson
Power Rankings
Pac-12
1. Oregon
2. UCLA
3. Stanford
4. Washington
5. Arizona State
6. Oregon State
7. Arizona
8. Utah
9. USC
10. Washinton State
11. California
12. Colorado
FBS Indy
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
5. Old Dominion
6. New Mexico State
7. Idaho
MWC
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Fresno State
4. San Jose State
5. San Diego State
6. Wyoming
7. Air Force
8. New Mexico
9. UNLV
10. Colorado State
11. New Mexico
12. Hawaii
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Southern Utah
6. North Dakota
7. Sacramento State
8. Weber State
9. Northern Arizona
10. Portland State
11. Northern Colorado
12. Idaho State
13. UC Davis
Beehive State QB Power Rankings
1. Chuckie Keeton, Utah State
2. Travis Wilson, Utah
3. Taysom Hill, BYU
4. Aaron Cantu, SUU
5. Austin Chipowetti, Weber State
Post-season projections for Utah's conferences
PAC-12
Oregon--BCS Championship
UCLA--Fiesta
Stanford--Alamo
Washington--Holiday
Oregon State--Sun
Arizona State--Las Vegas
Arizona--Kraft Fight Hunger
Utah--New Mexico
USC--Poinsettia (As a replacement for Army)
MWC
Utah State--Las Vegas
Frenso State--Poinsettia
Boise State--Hawaii
San Diego State--Armed Forces
San Jose State--New Mexico
Wyoming--Potato
Now my prediction for the BYU/Utah game...
Utah has had BYU's number since the two started playing in different conferences, especially in the 3rd quarter. If BYU is going to win this game, they need to make the proper half-time adjustments. This could be where the re-hiring of Robert Anae makes the difference, and we shouldn't see BYU's quarterback coming out after halftime in a daze this year. Overall, this game will be decided when BYU has the ball. BYU will need to have the ability to take advantage of Utah's week secondary. As Utah will also attempt to take advantage of BYU's weaknesses on defense. But this will likely be a low-scoring thriller. And the final will be 17-14 BYU.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Whose performance was I most impressed with on Septebmer 7, 2013?
Four of the 5 college football teams came away with victories on Saturday. And 4 of the 5 schools had impressive performances by the signal callers. Whose performance was the most impressive?
Let's list what each winning quarterback did on Saturday.
Aaron Cantu for SUU didn't rack up a lot of yards in the air, but was incredibly accurate with his arm. He completed 15 out of 16 passes and 4 touchdowns. Considering that this was against a Division II school may figure into it a little bit, but that kind of accuracy is good. Impressive, yes, but that is what a FCS school is supposed to do to a Division II school.
Travis Wilson numbers also seem impressive. However, he put up 264 yards in the air against an FCS school that gave up 450 yards in the air the week before to another FCS school. Impressive, yes, but that is what a PAC-12 team should do to a Big Sky Conference team with a suspect defense.
As for Weber State, it's only a matter of time before Austin Chippoletti is starting instead of Jordan Adamczyk.
Taysom Hill had a good game against the Texas defense when he was running the ball. And since when did BYU become expert in the Wildcat offense? Running the quarterback is a good way to get your quarterback hurt. Cougar fans should be thankful for the win, but concerned about the passing game. They have two weeks to figure that out before the Utes come to Provo. In the long run, this game only proved how overrated the Longhorns are, not how good the Cougars can be.
Chuckie Keeton is still the best quarterback in Utah. The Aggies said Hello to the MWC by blowing out Air Force. Chuckie's stats look Heisman worthy. Chuckie looked Heisman worthy. That was impressive indeed.
BYU 40 Texas 21
BYU MVP: QB Taysom Hill
Utah 70 Weber State 7
Utah MVP: RB Lucky Radley
WSU MVP: RB Bo Bolen
Utah State 52 Air Force 20
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Southern Utah 49 Forth Lewis 0
SUU MVP: QB Aaron Kantu
Conference MVPs this week
PAC-12: Oregon RB De'Anthony Thomas
FBS Indy: BYU QB Taysom Hill
MWC: USU QB Chuckie Keeton
Big Sky: Montana State RB Cody Kirk
Power Rankings
PAC-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. Washington
5. Arizona
6. Arizona State
7. Utah
8. Washington State
9. USC
10. Oregon State
11. California
12. Colorado
FBS Indies
1. Navy
2. BYU
3. Notre Dame
4. Army
5. Old Dominion
6. New Mexico State
7. Idaho
MWC
1. Utah State
2. Fresno State
3. Boise State
4. Wyoming
5. New Mexico
6. San Diego State
7. San Jose State
8. Hawaii
9. Air Force
10. Nevada
11. Colorado State
12. UNLV
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Southern Utah
6. North Dakota
7. Portland State
8. Weber State
9. Northern Colorado
10. Northern Arizona
11. Sacramento State
12. Idaho State
13. UC Davis
Beehive State QB Power Rankings
1. Chuckie Keeton, USU
2. Travis Wilson, Utah
3. Aaron Cantu, SUU
4. Taysom Hill, BYU
5. Jordan Adamczyk, WSU
Let's list what each winning quarterback did on Saturday.
Aaron Cantu for SUU didn't rack up a lot of yards in the air, but was incredibly accurate with his arm. He completed 15 out of 16 passes and 4 touchdowns. Considering that this was against a Division II school may figure into it a little bit, but that kind of accuracy is good. Impressive, yes, but that is what a FCS school is supposed to do to a Division II school.
Travis Wilson numbers also seem impressive. However, he put up 264 yards in the air against an FCS school that gave up 450 yards in the air the week before to another FCS school. Impressive, yes, but that is what a PAC-12 team should do to a Big Sky Conference team with a suspect defense.
As for Weber State, it's only a matter of time before Austin Chippoletti is starting instead of Jordan Adamczyk.
Taysom Hill had a good game against the Texas defense when he was running the ball. And since when did BYU become expert in the Wildcat offense? Running the quarterback is a good way to get your quarterback hurt. Cougar fans should be thankful for the win, but concerned about the passing game. They have two weeks to figure that out before the Utes come to Provo. In the long run, this game only proved how overrated the Longhorns are, not how good the Cougars can be.
Chuckie Keeton is still the best quarterback in Utah. The Aggies said Hello to the MWC by blowing out Air Force. Chuckie's stats look Heisman worthy. Chuckie looked Heisman worthy. That was impressive indeed.
BYU 40 Texas 21
BYU MVP: QB Taysom Hill
Utah 70 Weber State 7
Utah MVP: RB Lucky Radley
WSU MVP: RB Bo Bolen
Utah State 52 Air Force 20
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Southern Utah 49 Forth Lewis 0
SUU MVP: QB Aaron Kantu
Conference MVPs this week
PAC-12: Oregon RB De'Anthony Thomas
FBS Indy: BYU QB Taysom Hill
MWC: USU QB Chuckie Keeton
Big Sky: Montana State RB Cody Kirk
Power Rankings
PAC-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. Washington
5. Arizona
6. Arizona State
7. Utah
8. Washington State
9. USC
10. Oregon State
11. California
12. Colorado
FBS Indies
1. Navy
2. BYU
3. Notre Dame
4. Army
5. Old Dominion
6. New Mexico State
7. Idaho
MWC
1. Utah State
2. Fresno State
3. Boise State
4. Wyoming
5. New Mexico
6. San Diego State
7. San Jose State
8. Hawaii
9. Air Force
10. Nevada
11. Colorado State
12. UNLV
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Southern Utah
6. North Dakota
7. Portland State
8. Weber State
9. Northern Colorado
10. Northern Arizona
11. Sacramento State
12. Idaho State
13. UC Davis
Beehive State QB Power Rankings
1. Chuckie Keeton, USU
2. Travis Wilson, Utah
3. Aaron Cantu, SUU
4. Taysom Hill, BYU
5. Jordan Adamczyk, WSU
Sunday, September 1, 2013
This year it's all on Bronco--August 31, 2013
Virginia 19 BYU 16
After last season, Bronco Mendenhall fired all of his offensive coaches, from coordinator Brandon Doman to Graduate Assistant Coach Max Hall. Yes, the offense was that bad in 2012. You would expect that with a new staff and a new system, there were be improvement. But if week 1 is any indication, it will be worse. This is BYU, a place where the West Coat Offense took shape. What is now the standard for the NFL was developed in a lab in Provo. Hard to believe that at a school known to light up the scoreboard, the offense has become so anemic. Robert Anae has promised that BYU would go fast and go hard, but where are they going? It doesn't appear to be the end-zone.
Perhaps Virginia is better on defense than they were given credit for, but what I saw on Saturday wasn't that at all. We all saw one of the worst BYU offensive performances in the last 40 years, and possibly the worst offensive game since the 3-0 loss to Utah. This is not a BYU offense.
In Provo it's all on the quarterback, and Taysom Hill did not live up to his billing this Saturday. However, you can't put this loss all on the quarterback. There were receivers who could not catch the ball. And the offensive line was a sieve. The first week of go fast and go hard was almost a complete failure. The lone bright spot was Jamaal Williams with 144 yards on the ground. The other 10 men in the offense did not get the job done.
With the new offensive philosophy, if the offense does not perform, there is more pressure on the defense. 3 and out may only take 30 seconds. No matter how well the offense does, they will not dominate when it comes to time of possession. The defense will be tired. There will be no defense bailing the Cougars out this year if the offense doesn't figure it out. It will be too much to expect. I bet if Kyle Van Noy is not regretting his decision to come back to Provo for his senior season, he soon will.
How does this affect Bronco? Well, you can only clean house so many times before the head man is gone. Twice in the past 3 seasons, Bronco has cleaned house on offense. Sooner or later, this has to reflect on him. It's time for Bronco to be held accountable. As was said in the film A bugs life, "One lesson of leadership...everything is your fault." If go fast go hard doesn't work, then it should be Bronco who should go fast and go hard out of Provo. The schedule is difficult this year, no doubt about it. BYU did not look equal to the task on Saturday. It may be time to hand the reins of BYU football to someone else.
BYU MVP: RB Jamaal Williams
New projection for BYU in 2013--5-7. (That may still be too overly optimistic.)
Utah 30 Utah State 26
Is Utah better than we though they were this year? Possibly. Is Utah State not going to have another magical season after all? It's a little early to tell. They still might win the Mountain West Mountain. I've seen Boise State this season, and these Aggies can beat these Broncos, no doubt. But no BCS. The MWC Mountain division, if not the entire conference, appears to be up for grabs, and USU can win it. They just have to hope they can like the Las Vegas Bowl this year. Of course, the Aggies can still win out from here, and if they do, who knows?
This game, in my opinion, came down to just one factor. The experience of coach Kyle Whittingham trumping the inexperience of coach Matt Wells. Wells will learn from this experience and the next time the Aggies and the Utes hook horns, he will be ready. Utah doesn't look all that great, they were good enough to win on Thursday. Utah needs Tavis Wilson to play like this every game this season. While Utah State needs a little bit better performance from running back Joe Hill.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
USU MVP: QB Chukie Keeton
New projection for Utah in 2013--8-5 (4-5 in conference) after a win in the Holiday Bowl
New projection for USU in 2013--12-2 (9-0) after a win in the MWC Championship game and a win in the Las Vegas Bowl. (You'll take that, right Aggie fans?)
Southern Utah 22 South Alabama 21
This game supports the argument that some schools don't really belong in the Football Bowl Subdivision. South Alabama has only been in the FBS a few seasons, and doesn't look like they belong. SUU is better than they were picked in the pre-season, and I have confidence that the T-Birds will have at least a winning season this year and may even make the FCS expanded playoffs. Props should go to the Thunderbirds for pulling out an exciting win. If you are a T-Bird fan, you should be feeling optimistic about the prospects for 2013.
SUU MVP: RB Raysean Martin
New projection for SUU--8-5 (5-3) After a loss in the first round of the FCS playoffs.
Weber State 50 Stephen F. Austin 40
I've come to appreciate defense, lately. There was a time, when I was student at Ogden's mountainside campus, that defense was only a rumor in the Big Sky Conference and scores like this were common. And truth be told, after this one, the fans were ad tired as the defenses. It's a good start for Jody Sears and his hopes to get at least 4 wins this season. However, this may prove more than just 4 to 6 wins. The 'Cats scored 5 touchdowns on offense, and SFA is one of the better teams at the FCS level. SFA is as good as any Big Sky team. The defense came up with big plays in the 4th quarter, when they were obviously tired. WSU scored on defense and on special teams. If it weren't for the turnovers, they could have easily scored 70. WSU persevered and came away with a good win. WSU proved they can be a good team in the post-Ron McBride era, and that last years 2-9 finish was a statistical outlier. Perhaps they will do no better than 6-6 in 2013, but the future, at least for one evening, looks good in Ogden.
WSU MVP: RB's Josh Booker, Bo Bolen and Zach Smith
New projection for WSU--6-6 (5-3).
Conferences:
(Yes I know that CU and CSU have yet to play. Will the outcome make a difference? Probably not.)
PAC-12 MVP for week 1: Washington QB Keith Price
FBS Indy MVP for week 1: Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees
MWC MVP for week 1: Fresno State QB Derek Carr
Big Sky MVP for week 1: Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams
PAC-12 Game of the Week for week 1: Utah 30 Utah State 26
FBS Indy Game of the Week for week 1: Virginia 19 BYU 16
MWC Game of the Week for week 1: Nebraska 37 Wyoming 34
Big Sky Game of the Week for week 1: Eastern Washington 49 Oregon State 46
Power Rankings
FBS Indy
1. Notre Dame
2. Navy
3. BYU
4. Army
5. New Mexico State
6. Idaho
7. Old Dominion
PAC-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. Wahington
5. USC
6. Arizona State
7. Arizona
8. Utah
9. California
10. Oregon State
11. Washington state
12. Colorado
(Why is Utah so low? The PAC-12 is that good.)
Mountain West
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. Air Force
4. Utah State
5. San Jose State
6. Boise State
7. Wyoming
8. San Diego State
9. Colorado State
10. UNLV
11. Hawaii
12. New Mexico
(Why is USU that low? They need a win.)
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Southern Utah
6. North Dakota
7. Weber State
8. Portland State
9. Northern Arizona
10. Sacramento State
11. Northern Colorado
12. UC Davis
13. Idaho State
Beehive State QB Power Ranking.
1. Chuckie Keeton, Utah State
2. Travis Wilson, Utah
3. Aaron Cantu, Southern Utah
4. Jordan Adamczyk, Weber State
5. Taysom Hill, BYU
After last season, Bronco Mendenhall fired all of his offensive coaches, from coordinator Brandon Doman to Graduate Assistant Coach Max Hall. Yes, the offense was that bad in 2012. You would expect that with a new staff and a new system, there were be improvement. But if week 1 is any indication, it will be worse. This is BYU, a place where the West Coat Offense took shape. What is now the standard for the NFL was developed in a lab in Provo. Hard to believe that at a school known to light up the scoreboard, the offense has become so anemic. Robert Anae has promised that BYU would go fast and go hard, but where are they going? It doesn't appear to be the end-zone.
Perhaps Virginia is better on defense than they were given credit for, but what I saw on Saturday wasn't that at all. We all saw one of the worst BYU offensive performances in the last 40 years, and possibly the worst offensive game since the 3-0 loss to Utah. This is not a BYU offense.
In Provo it's all on the quarterback, and Taysom Hill did not live up to his billing this Saturday. However, you can't put this loss all on the quarterback. There were receivers who could not catch the ball. And the offensive line was a sieve. The first week of go fast and go hard was almost a complete failure. The lone bright spot was Jamaal Williams with 144 yards on the ground. The other 10 men in the offense did not get the job done.
With the new offensive philosophy, if the offense does not perform, there is more pressure on the defense. 3 and out may only take 30 seconds. No matter how well the offense does, they will not dominate when it comes to time of possession. The defense will be tired. There will be no defense bailing the Cougars out this year if the offense doesn't figure it out. It will be too much to expect. I bet if Kyle Van Noy is not regretting his decision to come back to Provo for his senior season, he soon will.
How does this affect Bronco? Well, you can only clean house so many times before the head man is gone. Twice in the past 3 seasons, Bronco has cleaned house on offense. Sooner or later, this has to reflect on him. It's time for Bronco to be held accountable. As was said in the film A bugs life, "One lesson of leadership...everything is your fault." If go fast go hard doesn't work, then it should be Bronco who should go fast and go hard out of Provo. The schedule is difficult this year, no doubt about it. BYU did not look equal to the task on Saturday. It may be time to hand the reins of BYU football to someone else.
BYU MVP: RB Jamaal Williams
New projection for BYU in 2013--5-7. (That may still be too overly optimistic.)
Utah 30 Utah State 26
Is Utah better than we though they were this year? Possibly. Is Utah State not going to have another magical season after all? It's a little early to tell. They still might win the Mountain West Mountain. I've seen Boise State this season, and these Aggies can beat these Broncos, no doubt. But no BCS. The MWC Mountain division, if not the entire conference, appears to be up for grabs, and USU can win it. They just have to hope they can like the Las Vegas Bowl this year. Of course, the Aggies can still win out from here, and if they do, who knows?
This game, in my opinion, came down to just one factor. The experience of coach Kyle Whittingham trumping the inexperience of coach Matt Wells. Wells will learn from this experience and the next time the Aggies and the Utes hook horns, he will be ready. Utah doesn't look all that great, they were good enough to win on Thursday. Utah needs Tavis Wilson to play like this every game this season. While Utah State needs a little bit better performance from running back Joe Hill.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
USU MVP: QB Chukie Keeton
New projection for Utah in 2013--8-5 (4-5 in conference) after a win in the Holiday Bowl
New projection for USU in 2013--12-2 (9-0) after a win in the MWC Championship game and a win in the Las Vegas Bowl. (You'll take that, right Aggie fans?)
Southern Utah 22 South Alabama 21
This game supports the argument that some schools don't really belong in the Football Bowl Subdivision. South Alabama has only been in the FBS a few seasons, and doesn't look like they belong. SUU is better than they were picked in the pre-season, and I have confidence that the T-Birds will have at least a winning season this year and may even make the FCS expanded playoffs. Props should go to the Thunderbirds for pulling out an exciting win. If you are a T-Bird fan, you should be feeling optimistic about the prospects for 2013.
SUU MVP: RB Raysean Martin
New projection for SUU--8-5 (5-3) After a loss in the first round of the FCS playoffs.
Weber State 50 Stephen F. Austin 40
I've come to appreciate defense, lately. There was a time, when I was student at Ogden's mountainside campus, that defense was only a rumor in the Big Sky Conference and scores like this were common. And truth be told, after this one, the fans were ad tired as the defenses. It's a good start for Jody Sears and his hopes to get at least 4 wins this season. However, this may prove more than just 4 to 6 wins. The 'Cats scored 5 touchdowns on offense, and SFA is one of the better teams at the FCS level. SFA is as good as any Big Sky team. The defense came up with big plays in the 4th quarter, when they were obviously tired. WSU scored on defense and on special teams. If it weren't for the turnovers, they could have easily scored 70. WSU persevered and came away with a good win. WSU proved they can be a good team in the post-Ron McBride era, and that last years 2-9 finish was a statistical outlier. Perhaps they will do no better than 6-6 in 2013, but the future, at least for one evening, looks good in Ogden.
WSU MVP: RB's Josh Booker, Bo Bolen and Zach Smith
New projection for WSU--6-6 (5-3).
Conferences:
(Yes I know that CU and CSU have yet to play. Will the outcome make a difference? Probably not.)
PAC-12 MVP for week 1: Washington QB Keith Price
FBS Indy MVP for week 1: Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees
MWC MVP for week 1: Fresno State QB Derek Carr
Big Sky MVP for week 1: Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams
PAC-12 Game of the Week for week 1: Utah 30 Utah State 26
FBS Indy Game of the Week for week 1: Virginia 19 BYU 16
MWC Game of the Week for week 1: Nebraska 37 Wyoming 34
Big Sky Game of the Week for week 1: Eastern Washington 49 Oregon State 46
Power Rankings
FBS Indy
1. Notre Dame
2. Navy
3. BYU
4. Army
5. New Mexico State
6. Idaho
7. Old Dominion
PAC-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. Wahington
5. USC
6. Arizona State
7. Arizona
8. Utah
9. California
10. Oregon State
11. Washington state
12. Colorado
(Why is Utah so low? The PAC-12 is that good.)
Mountain West
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. Air Force
4. Utah State
5. San Jose State
6. Boise State
7. Wyoming
8. San Diego State
9. Colorado State
10. UNLV
11. Hawaii
12. New Mexico
(Why is USU that low? They need a win.)
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Southern Utah
6. North Dakota
7. Weber State
8. Portland State
9. Northern Arizona
10. Sacramento State
11. Northern Colorado
12. UC Davis
13. Idaho State
Beehive State QB Power Ranking.
1. Chuckie Keeton, Utah State
2. Travis Wilson, Utah
3. Aaron Cantu, Southern Utah
4. Jordan Adamczyk, Weber State
5. Taysom Hill, BYU
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
August 28--31 Preview
Utah State at Utah
There is one difference between the Utes and the Aggies this year that will make all the difference in the game. Chuckie Keeton is a much more consistent quarterback than Travis Wilson. Enough said.
27-17 Aggies
BYU at Virginia
Big juggernaut offenses take a while go get the kinks out. However, it's not like BYU is taking on a good ACC team.
34-18 Cougars
Southern Utah at South Alabama
When the T-Birds take on a poor FBS team, they usually win.
28-14 T-Birds
Stephen F. Austin at Weber State
There was an article on KSL.com about regression to the mean. Last year, WSU had a poorer than usual season. Can they turn it around this year? It will have to start this week.
31-28 Cats.
There is one difference between the Utes and the Aggies this year that will make all the difference in the game. Chuckie Keeton is a much more consistent quarterback than Travis Wilson. Enough said.
27-17 Aggies
BYU at Virginia
Big juggernaut offenses take a while go get the kinks out. However, it's not like BYU is taking on a good ACC team.
34-18 Cougars
Southern Utah at South Alabama
When the T-Birds take on a poor FBS team, they usually win.
28-14 T-Birds
Stephen F. Austin at Weber State
There was an article on KSL.com about regression to the mean. Last year, WSU had a poorer than usual season. Can they turn it around this year? It will have to start this week.
31-28 Cats.
Monday, August 26, 2013
BYU's 2014 Schedule is Tennatively Complete
This is the earliest that Tom Holmoe has finished a schedule in BYU's era of independence. Here is the schedule as it now stands
August 28 @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 (Open)
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Southern Mississippi
November 15 UNLV
November 22 (Open)
November 29 @ California
By Conference
American--3 (UConn, Houston, UCF)
Big 12--1 (Texas)
ACC--1 (Virginia)
MWC--4 (USU, Nevada, UNLV, BSU)
C-USA--2 (MTSU, USM)
PAC 12--1 (Cal)
If Southern Mississippi goes away, most likely replacement...it's too early to tell as there a lot of schools needing a game.
August 28 @ Connecticut
September 6 @ Texas
September 13 (Open)
September 20 Virginia
September 27 Houston
October 3 Utah State
October 11 @ Central Florida
October 18 Nevada
October 25 @ Boise State
November 1 @ Middle Tennessee
November 8 Southern Mississippi
November 15 UNLV
November 22 (Open)
November 29 @ California
By Conference
American--3 (UConn, Houston, UCF)
Big 12--1 (Texas)
ACC--1 (Virginia)
MWC--4 (USU, Nevada, UNLV, BSU)
C-USA--2 (MTSU, USM)
PAC 12--1 (Cal)
If Southern Mississippi goes away, most likely replacement...it's too early to tell as there a lot of schools needing a game.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
My 2013 Prediction--Utah State Aggies
It took me a long time to write this one, because a couple of season ago, who would ever say something like this: I think we all feel that it is going to be a special season for the Aggies, but there is one game that stands out as the most important for USU. But it is not the game everyone thinks it is. If they don't win this one, the could go 11-1 and end up in the Armed Forces Bowl.
August 29--@ Utah
The Utes will be a tough challenge for USU to start the season. But the Aggies should win it.
September 7--@ Air Force
If you have not seen the Falcon triple option as a defense, it is hard to defend at first. The key is to build a lead, as this offense is not geared to come back.
September 14--Weber State
Weber State is better than most think they are this year, and it wasn't that long ago that WSU at USU would produce talk of a Wildcat victory. But that is only a pipe dream in 2013. Again, it will be a moral victory for the Cat if Chuckie gets under center in the 2nd half.
September 21--@ USC
Well, I'm about to predict something else that will shock a few people and end up costing someone their job. The USC Trojans going 0-3 against teams from the state of Utah. (I think USC and BYU will play in the Hunger Bowl.) The Aggies will start the Trojan woes this year and I think it will happen and it will cost Lane Kiffin his job.
September 28--@ San Jose State
This is a much more important game that is seems. David Fales is the real deal, and even with so much experience on the Aggie D, this could be the game of the season for USU. This is the game that the Aggies had better be ready for, and coming in between USU and BYU, it is the classic trap game. This game is more important that USC, BYU or Boise State. If the Aggies are not ready and lose this one, all hope of a BCS bowl go out the window. If it is like last year's game, all worries will be put to rest. I think it will be more like last year's game where Fales sees a lot of grass and the Aggies win.
October 4--BYU
This game will be closer than a lot of Aggie fans hope for. I expect another close, defensive battle with the home team coming out on top.
October 12--Boise State
If USU hopes for a BCS bowl are still alive, this becomes another important game. In the MWC, you have to win the conference title to get to the BCS and Boise State stands in their way. But the game is in Logan, and should have a large, partisan crowd behind them that should help them win easily.
October 19--@ New Mexico
Now the hard part of the season is over. The key will be not to take anyone else in the season lightly and UNM may be good enough to remind USU of that...for the first half. I foresee the Lobos leading at half-time, USU getting a nice pep talk and coming out the second half on playing up to their potential.
November 2--Hawaii
Yawn.
November 9--@UNLV
Hey USU fans, here is an opportunity for you. You know how cold Logan is in early November? Well, it's warm in Las Vegas, and there is plenty to do. And there will be plenty of seats available. Why not take a road trip this weekend? See the sights, play the slots, watch a show or two. The go to Sam Boyd Stadium and watch your Aggies beat up the Rebels. Perfect weekend.
November 23--Colorado State
Remember two years ago? Won't happen this year. USU with another easy win.
November 30--Wyoming
Time to put the cherry on top of what hasn't been done since TCU in 2005. Win the division and host the conference championship game.
December 7--MWC Championship Game vs. Fresno State
All the talk will be of Utah State going into conference championship weekend. The Bulldogs will not like playing the role of spoiler and may have just enough rage to catch the Aggies sleeping. Remember, USU will not have played a good quality team for half a season. And I think it catches up to them here. The Bulldogs will win by a touchdown, and many fans will go home disappointed.
Poinsettia Bowl vs. California
Army won't be in the Poinsettia Bowl this year, and I can see the MWC with 7 bowl eligible teams. I can see some sort of deal in the works that gets the Pac-12 out of the New Mexico Bowl and gets California a bowl that their fans will travel to. Should be a nice game for the Aggies to win.
Final prediction:
USU 13-1, Division champions. Top 15 ranking. Scott Barnes announces a stadium expansion. All is well in Aggieland for now.
August 29--@ Utah
The Utes will be a tough challenge for USU to start the season. But the Aggies should win it.
September 7--@ Air Force
If you have not seen the Falcon triple option as a defense, it is hard to defend at first. The key is to build a lead, as this offense is not geared to come back.
September 14--Weber State
Weber State is better than most think they are this year, and it wasn't that long ago that WSU at USU would produce talk of a Wildcat victory. But that is only a pipe dream in 2013. Again, it will be a moral victory for the Cat if Chuckie gets under center in the 2nd half.
September 21--@ USC
Well, I'm about to predict something else that will shock a few people and end up costing someone their job. The USC Trojans going 0-3 against teams from the state of Utah. (I think USC and BYU will play in the Hunger Bowl.) The Aggies will start the Trojan woes this year and I think it will happen and it will cost Lane Kiffin his job.
September 28--@ San Jose State
This is a much more important game that is seems. David Fales is the real deal, and even with so much experience on the Aggie D, this could be the game of the season for USU. This is the game that the Aggies had better be ready for, and coming in between USU and BYU, it is the classic trap game. This game is more important that USC, BYU or Boise State. If the Aggies are not ready and lose this one, all hope of a BCS bowl go out the window. If it is like last year's game, all worries will be put to rest. I think it will be more like last year's game where Fales sees a lot of grass and the Aggies win.
October 4--BYU
This game will be closer than a lot of Aggie fans hope for. I expect another close, defensive battle with the home team coming out on top.
October 12--Boise State
If USU hopes for a BCS bowl are still alive, this becomes another important game. In the MWC, you have to win the conference title to get to the BCS and Boise State stands in their way. But the game is in Logan, and should have a large, partisan crowd behind them that should help them win easily.
October 19--@ New Mexico
Now the hard part of the season is over. The key will be not to take anyone else in the season lightly and UNM may be good enough to remind USU of that...for the first half. I foresee the Lobos leading at half-time, USU getting a nice pep talk and coming out the second half on playing up to their potential.
November 2--Hawaii
Yawn.
November 9--@UNLV
Hey USU fans, here is an opportunity for you. You know how cold Logan is in early November? Well, it's warm in Las Vegas, and there is plenty to do. And there will be plenty of seats available. Why not take a road trip this weekend? See the sights, play the slots, watch a show or two. The go to Sam Boyd Stadium and watch your Aggies beat up the Rebels. Perfect weekend.
November 23--Colorado State
Remember two years ago? Won't happen this year. USU with another easy win.
November 30--Wyoming
Time to put the cherry on top of what hasn't been done since TCU in 2005. Win the division and host the conference championship game.
December 7--MWC Championship Game vs. Fresno State
All the talk will be of Utah State going into conference championship weekend. The Bulldogs will not like playing the role of spoiler and may have just enough rage to catch the Aggies sleeping. Remember, USU will not have played a good quality team for half a season. And I think it catches up to them here. The Bulldogs will win by a touchdown, and many fans will go home disappointed.
Poinsettia Bowl vs. California
Army won't be in the Poinsettia Bowl this year, and I can see the MWC with 7 bowl eligible teams. I can see some sort of deal in the works that gets the Pac-12 out of the New Mexico Bowl and gets California a bowl that their fans will travel to. Should be a nice game for the Aggies to win.
Final prediction:
USU 13-1, Division champions. Top 15 ranking. Scott Barnes announces a stadium expansion. All is well in Aggieland for now.
Monday, August 5, 2013
The Split Comming in College Football
There is a split coming in college football. The elite 5 conferences want to move up on their own. There is frustration with many of these schools and feel that they have, for too long, supported other schools that don't make as much money as others. They also want to do more for their athletes, such as pay the full Title IV defined cost of education, but other schools continually vote such changes down. Right now, colleges only provide tuition, room and board and books for student athletes. Food is only covered in season, but not out of season. The full cost of education includes food, clothing, technology and reasonable travel expenses all within limits. Student athletes, to meet these costs, can accept the money from family or they can borrow the funds if they are Title IV eligible, or they can get a part-time job outside of their season.
Let's take a look at what the big colleges complain about, and if they have beef. Arkansas, of the SEC, last season averaged 66,000 fans at home for a 4-8 season. Their stadium holds 72,000 people. Meanwhile, across the state, the Champions of the Sun Belt Conference, Arkansas State, averaged 27,000 people at their home games. Their stadium holds 30,000. That was in support of a 10-3 season. You see the point? A lousy SEC team does better in getting fans to games than a very good Sun Belt team. There is, no doubt, a big difference between the SEC and the Sun Belt Conference, and the big 5 commissioners are upset that they are in the same subdivision. They don't want to subsidize sports at that level if the fans don't show up. They want to do something about it. They want to provide more for their athletes and they don't want to have to share their booty with schools who don't have the same level of support from their communities.
According to Steward Mandel of Sports Illustrated, they are not talking about shutting out the Mountain West, American Conference, Conference USA, MAC and the Sun Belt Conferences, per se, they just want those that don't have a realistic chance to be on the same plane. It's not that they can't compete on the Gridiron, it's that they can't compete at the turnstiles.
In order to avoid trouble with the Federal Government, they probably will not break away from the NCAA. There could be sanctions from the Department of Education. There could be anti-trust issues. And there could be title IX problems if all students are not given the same opportunities. The smaller colleges, including current FCS programs and even Division II programs, may also be forced to foot the bill for the full cost of education, but they will have to settle for fewer scholarships and may have to fill out their rosters with non-scholarship players. This will especially be the case if the breakaway is football-only.
After studying the issue, my suggestion is that the college football's two subdivisions become 3. The split will be based upon the level of support each college currently enjoys. My suggestion is that the boundary for the top division will be a 3-year running attendance, per conference, of 30,000. The only exception will be the 3 service academies, who already pay the full cost of education for all of their athletes. It means that the MWC can invite someone like Idaho and their average attendance of 8,000 if the conference average is above 30,000. There will be other requirements, such as the sponsorship of at least 16 varsity sports and the requirement that 90% of players on any active roster must receive at least a partial scholarship. The last requirement will ensure that schools like, Nebraska, don't show up for home games with 300 players in uniform, with only 85 on scholarship. If you have 85 players on scholarship, you can only dress 94 for any game. The middle division would require an attendance level of at least 10,000, sponsor only 14 sports, and is a little bit lighter on the restriction of scholarship athletes, allowing for more walk-ons. The lower division would require 8 sports and an attendance of at least 4,000 per conference. If a conference can't get at least 4,000 to a game, they would be required to drop to division II.
Here is how it would effect interest of this blog.
BYU:
I don't believe that BYU fans have a reason to be concerned. Chances are they may even be allowed to remain independent. By most standards, BYU is a top-30 college football program. There is no logical reason to keep the cougars out of the very top subdivision. They may be forced to join a conference because scheduling could become even more difficult, but BYU does not typically schedule a lot of games against C-USA, The MAC nor The Sun Belt. Which brings me to...
Mountain West Conference
If you look at the MWC attendance numbers, it becomes obvious that the entire conference can't be included in the top division. Some schools are really struggling to get people to attend games, and the MWC will have some tough choices to make. Wyoming, Colorado State and San Jose State will be easy programs to cut, they are bringing up the rear. The tough choice would be on the 4th program to cut. Will it be UNLV, New Mexico, Nevada or Utah State? The MWC could build back up with programs that do not hurt their attendance so much, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA, all who pull in better than 25,000 per game.
If the MWC were able to lure BYU and their 60,000+ attendance back to the fold, the choices wouldn't be so hard. But if I were BYU and had to give up my ESPN deal to join the MWC, I would push for everyone else to expand their stadiums and improve their attendance. If Arkansas can average 60,000+ when they have a bad season, there is no reason Fresno State should have less than 60,000 in their stadium. Same goes for Boise State. The conference would likely still have to drop two programs, but with BYU they could keep either CSU or Wyoming and could add someone who doesn't hurt the conference as much as San Jose State does, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA.
Hawaii is another problem. They are well supported, and one of the better-attended MWC schools in spite of their poor record in recent seasons. However, travel to and from Oahu is a problem for them. It's expensive. Hawaii may not be at the top subdivision due to costs.
Utah State
The Aggies need to do a few things to ensure that they would stay with the Mountain West Conference. First, win some games this season. But most importantly, get people to games. If USU get's their attendance figures around 25,000 this season, they could probably convince the MWC to keep them. However, there would also need to be plans for a stadium upgrade and expansion. I would suggest adding another 10,000-15,000 seats. If USU can then keep winning, people will come. What else is there in Logan?
Idaho
It is really time for Idaho to accept reality and simply reclassify at what is currently the FCS, where they can compete and succeed. Don't need to say more than that.
The Big Sky Conference
If there will be three football-playing subdivisions, then there will be the opportunity for some members to move to the top or middle subdivision. Montana should be at the top of college football because they have enough fan support. The MWC, without some of their bottom-feeders should provide enough revenue for Montana to provide support at the top level to their athletes. Montana State, EWU, Cal Poly and Sacramento State have enough support to be middle-subdivision teams. That would leave the Big Sky with (13-5=8) teams. It would be 9 if Idaho was to join for all sports, which should happen. The conference would still be in good shape unless some schools decide to stop playing football. With the requirement to pay full-cost of attendance for a certain percentage, and with the now non-football WAC looking for additional members, schools like Weber State, and Northern Arizona may consider again dropping football. Possible new members include Dixie State, Central Washington, Simon Fraser and Colorado Mesa.
Here is how I suggest the NCAA reclassify Division I
Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A)
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
PAC-12
SEC
American Athletic (I suggest they drop SMU, Tulsa and Tulane and add Appalachian State, James Madison and Louisiana Tech)
Mountain West (I suggest that they drop Colorado State, San Jose State and Wyoming and add UTEP, UTSA and Montana. Hawaii may drop out on their own due to costs.)
Independents: Army, Brigham Young and Notre Dame
Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA)
Consists of some current FBS conferences and some current FCS conferces
Conference USA (Remaining members)
Ivy
MAC
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Sun Belt
SWAC
Possible New Conference 1: SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State
Possible New Conference 2: Colorado State, San Jose State, Wyoming, Hawaii, Montana State, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State
Possible Independents: Delaware, Villanova, William and Mary, Liberty (The CAA as a whole is not strong enough, but could be with the right membership mix.)
Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
Big Sky (Remaining members plus new members)
Big South (Minus Liberty)
CAA (Remaining members)
MEAC
NEC
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Pioneer
Southern
Southland
Non-Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
American East
Atlantic Sun
Atlantic-10
Big East
Big West
Horizon
MAAC
MVC
The Summitt
WCC
WAC
Let's take a look at what the big colleges complain about, and if they have beef. Arkansas, of the SEC, last season averaged 66,000 fans at home for a 4-8 season. Their stadium holds 72,000 people. Meanwhile, across the state, the Champions of the Sun Belt Conference, Arkansas State, averaged 27,000 people at their home games. Their stadium holds 30,000. That was in support of a 10-3 season. You see the point? A lousy SEC team does better in getting fans to games than a very good Sun Belt team. There is, no doubt, a big difference between the SEC and the Sun Belt Conference, and the big 5 commissioners are upset that they are in the same subdivision. They don't want to subsidize sports at that level if the fans don't show up. They want to do something about it. They want to provide more for their athletes and they don't want to have to share their booty with schools who don't have the same level of support from their communities.
According to Steward Mandel of Sports Illustrated, they are not talking about shutting out the Mountain West, American Conference, Conference USA, MAC and the Sun Belt Conferences, per se, they just want those that don't have a realistic chance to be on the same plane. It's not that they can't compete on the Gridiron, it's that they can't compete at the turnstiles.
In order to avoid trouble with the Federal Government, they probably will not break away from the NCAA. There could be sanctions from the Department of Education. There could be anti-trust issues. And there could be title IX problems if all students are not given the same opportunities. The smaller colleges, including current FCS programs and even Division II programs, may also be forced to foot the bill for the full cost of education, but they will have to settle for fewer scholarships and may have to fill out their rosters with non-scholarship players. This will especially be the case if the breakaway is football-only.
After studying the issue, my suggestion is that the college football's two subdivisions become 3. The split will be based upon the level of support each college currently enjoys. My suggestion is that the boundary for the top division will be a 3-year running attendance, per conference, of 30,000. The only exception will be the 3 service academies, who already pay the full cost of education for all of their athletes. It means that the MWC can invite someone like Idaho and their average attendance of 8,000 if the conference average is above 30,000. There will be other requirements, such as the sponsorship of at least 16 varsity sports and the requirement that 90% of players on any active roster must receive at least a partial scholarship. The last requirement will ensure that schools like, Nebraska, don't show up for home games with 300 players in uniform, with only 85 on scholarship. If you have 85 players on scholarship, you can only dress 94 for any game. The middle division would require an attendance level of at least 10,000, sponsor only 14 sports, and is a little bit lighter on the restriction of scholarship athletes, allowing for more walk-ons. The lower division would require 8 sports and an attendance of at least 4,000 per conference. If a conference can't get at least 4,000 to a game, they would be required to drop to division II.
Here is how it would effect interest of this blog.
BYU:
I don't believe that BYU fans have a reason to be concerned. Chances are they may even be allowed to remain independent. By most standards, BYU is a top-30 college football program. There is no logical reason to keep the cougars out of the very top subdivision. They may be forced to join a conference because scheduling could become even more difficult, but BYU does not typically schedule a lot of games against C-USA, The MAC nor The Sun Belt. Which brings me to...
Mountain West Conference
If you look at the MWC attendance numbers, it becomes obvious that the entire conference can't be included in the top division. Some schools are really struggling to get people to attend games, and the MWC will have some tough choices to make. Wyoming, Colorado State and San Jose State will be easy programs to cut, they are bringing up the rear. The tough choice would be on the 4th program to cut. Will it be UNLV, New Mexico, Nevada or Utah State? The MWC could build back up with programs that do not hurt their attendance so much, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA, all who pull in better than 25,000 per game.
If the MWC were able to lure BYU and their 60,000+ attendance back to the fold, the choices wouldn't be so hard. But if I were BYU and had to give up my ESPN deal to join the MWC, I would push for everyone else to expand their stadiums and improve their attendance. If Arkansas can average 60,000+ when they have a bad season, there is no reason Fresno State should have less than 60,000 in their stadium. Same goes for Boise State. The conference would likely still have to drop two programs, but with BYU they could keep either CSU or Wyoming and could add someone who doesn't hurt the conference as much as San Jose State does, like Montana, UTEP or UTSA.
Hawaii is another problem. They are well supported, and one of the better-attended MWC schools in spite of their poor record in recent seasons. However, travel to and from Oahu is a problem for them. It's expensive. Hawaii may not be at the top subdivision due to costs.
Utah State
The Aggies need to do a few things to ensure that they would stay with the Mountain West Conference. First, win some games this season. But most importantly, get people to games. If USU get's their attendance figures around 25,000 this season, they could probably convince the MWC to keep them. However, there would also need to be plans for a stadium upgrade and expansion. I would suggest adding another 10,000-15,000 seats. If USU can then keep winning, people will come. What else is there in Logan?
Idaho
It is really time for Idaho to accept reality and simply reclassify at what is currently the FCS, where they can compete and succeed. Don't need to say more than that.
The Big Sky Conference
If there will be three football-playing subdivisions, then there will be the opportunity for some members to move to the top or middle subdivision. Montana should be at the top of college football because they have enough fan support. The MWC, without some of their bottom-feeders should provide enough revenue for Montana to provide support at the top level to their athletes. Montana State, EWU, Cal Poly and Sacramento State have enough support to be middle-subdivision teams. That would leave the Big Sky with (13-5=8) teams. It would be 9 if Idaho was to join for all sports, which should happen. The conference would still be in good shape unless some schools decide to stop playing football. With the requirement to pay full-cost of attendance for a certain percentage, and with the now non-football WAC looking for additional members, schools like Weber State, and Northern Arizona may consider again dropping football. Possible new members include Dixie State, Central Washington, Simon Fraser and Colorado Mesa.
Here is how I suggest the NCAA reclassify Division I
Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A)
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
PAC-12
SEC
American Athletic (I suggest they drop SMU, Tulsa and Tulane and add Appalachian State, James Madison and Louisiana Tech)
Mountain West (I suggest that they drop Colorado State, San Jose State and Wyoming and add UTEP, UTSA and Montana. Hawaii may drop out on their own due to costs.)
Independents: Army, Brigham Young and Notre Dame
Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA)
Consists of some current FBS conferences and some current FCS conferces
Conference USA (Remaining members)
Ivy
MAC
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Sun Belt
SWAC
Possible New Conference 1: SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State
Possible New Conference 2: Colorado State, San Jose State, Wyoming, Hawaii, Montana State, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State
Possible Independents: Delaware, Villanova, William and Mary, Liberty (The CAA as a whole is not strong enough, but could be with the right membership mix.)
Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
Big Sky (Remaining members plus new members)
Big South (Minus Liberty)
CAA (Remaining members)
MEAC
NEC
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Pioneer
Southern
Southland
Non-Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
American East
Atlantic Sun
Atlantic-10
Big East
Big West
Horizon
MAAC
MVC
The Summitt
WCC
WAC
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