Tuesday, May 10, 2011

BYU's TV Games in 2011.

Updated June 3, 2011.

@ Ole Miss--ESPN
@ Texas--ESPN2
Utah--ESPN2
UCF--ESPN
USU--ESPN
San Jose State--ESPN Family--TBA
@ Oregon State--TBA*
Idaho State--BYU TV
@ TCU--ESPN
Idaho--ESPN Family--TBA
New Mexico State--ESPN Family TBA
@ Hawaii--ESPN

May 2011 WAC Expansion News...invitations extended!--Updated

I published this one by mistake, then updated it, then lost the updates in the Google maintenance debacle. Sorry.

According to a Boise radio station, KIDO, the WAC is going to announce expansion plans after the Presidents meet next month in Salt Lake. In the meantime, here is what has leaked...

According to a San Antonio newspaper, none of this will be happen in time for the 2012 season. Therefore, a lot could change. The only rock-solid thing I can find to expect from the meeting next month is that Seattle will be invited...basketball only. This invitation will ensure the WAC will keep their automatic NCAA bid. Other rumors are:

Open invitations have been extended to:
-Montana
-Montana State
-Portland State
-Cal Poly

These are open-ended and these schools can join any time between 2012 and 2014. (Because Cal Poly is the only school in this quartet without an FBS-sized stadium, they may be given longer.) Likely, the first three to take the conference up on the invitation will become part of the WAC where the 4th one will be left out. There are other schools in the west who could join, like UC Davis, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and such.

There are three FCS schools in the southwest that will be invited if any/all of these schools refuse. (The fact that there are only three could imply that someone, either Cal Poly or Portland State will accept the WAC invite). These schools are unnamed, but implied to mean Lamar, Sam Houston State and perhaps Stephen F. Austin or Northeastern State. It could also mean Texas Arlington will bring back football with a WAC invitation.

However, the rumor is that the WAC wants at least one of the western schools to join or they will not expand at all. There could be one of the four western schools plus Lamar, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin.

My gut feeling, and please do not crucify me for this as it is only my opinion, is that at least Portland State will accept. This campus is growing, the city is growing. PSU is a good fit for the WAC at this time, and the WAC is a good conference for PSU. They will have to bring back sports, like baseball, that have been terminated in recent years. Eventually, they will need a larger basketball arena, but they can still use either the Rose Garden or the Memorial Colosseum, if needed. This move is based upon the strength of the Portland market, which is partially untapped by the college sports world. Sure, there is the University of Portland from the WCC, but the nearest FBS program to Portland is 83 miles south.

Didn't Montana say no last fall, what changed? It also also my opinion that the way that the Big Sky decided to handle a 13-team conference, by not breaking into divisions but doing that funky rivalry/rotation schedule, weakens Montana's argument for remaining the the Big Sky. The loss of regular games against the other Big Sky Charter members, Weber State and Idaho State--essentially a loss in these nearly 50-year-old rivalries--weakens the Big Sky considerably. Montana can keep their rivalry with Montana State and renew their rivalry with Idaho. This is better than they will have in the Big Sky. The other thing that changed, no Hawaii...easier travel.

The only remaining hitch in this expansion plan is whether Cal Poly can get funds to expand their stadium. Before the conference expansion craziness from last fall began, Cal Poly was considered a shoe-in for WAC inclusion and all that remained was expanding the stadium. That story has not changed, even with the loss of Fresno State and Nevada to the Mountain West.

There are also some rumored basketball-only schools being rumored. However, the WAC seems to be pursuing a football expansion right now.

If the WAC athletic directors get their choice, here is how the WAC will look in 2014.

The WAC Football 12?:
Cal Poly
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Lamar
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
Portland State
San Jose State
Texas State
UTSA
Utah State

Or, try this:

Northwest Division
Cal Poly
Idaho
Montana
Montana State
San Jose State
Utah State
+2 Basketball only schools:
Seattle
CS Bakersfield

Southwest Division
Louisiana Tech
Lamar
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA
Sam Houston State
+2 Basketball only schools:
Denver
UT Arlington

The Big Sky will be left with 9 football schools and 8 basketball schools. That is likely where the Big Sky conference will stay...ie not expand further, but likely is open to Central Washington or Dixie State should they want to move to Division I. But perhaps Fullerton and the remaining athletic directors will consider adding Seattle as a non-football school.

UC Davis (Football Only)
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Weber State

Perhaps Portland State or Cal Poly will remain.

Source of my information: http://www.mwcconnection.com/2011/5/8/2160933/wac-to-announce-further-expansion
But I have not implied as much as these authors have. I have not been able to find the link on KIDO, however. My sources name KIDO as the source. The news on KIDO is that the Humanitarian Bowl is considering folding after this year's edition.

5/18 Update...According to the San Jose Mercury News, the WAC will add at least one Basketball only school immediately. The rest of the expansion will be invited for future expansion in the 2013-2014 time frame. It is getting a little late to have an FBS upgrade by 2012.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Does SEC Expansion spell RIP WAC?

Rumors are popping up about the Southeast Conference expanding into Texas. Rumors are like car wash tokens. Whether or not they are of any value depends on a lot of factors beyond our control. However, we have learned in recent history that big conference expansion means doom for the little guys. In this case, it could end the WAC.

The rumors are that that SEC is ready to go to 14, and they want to expand into the heart of Texas. Weather the Texas Longhorns want the SEC is another question. Texas has to be the big boy, the one with all the attention. The one calling all of the shots. Kind of what BYU thought they had in the MWC before Utah joined the PAC-10. Where BYU would have jumped at the opportunity to join the PAC-10, Texas is luke warm on the idea of joining the SEC. And the SEC does not need to allow Texas to join and let Texas decide their terms. There will be no negotiation. If Texas does not like the SEC offer, they will take another path...independence. Texas and the SEC will flirt, but if it does not work our right away, it will go no farther.

Texas A&M will consider the SEC, however. So will Oklahoma. This is the way that it appears to be working out. The SEC gets A&M and Oklahoma. Texas goes out on their own and becomes the 5th FBS independent. Not sure where basketball goes, likely either the Big East, MVC or independent as well.

Now, how the dominoes fall from here is anyone's guess.

(Disclaimer: this is not a prediction.)

Scenario 1--WAC dies
SEC invites Texas and Texas A&M...
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas and Missouri
Big 12 invites BYU, Boise State, SMU, Houston, UNLV and San Diego State (Remember that the Big 12 still as Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Baylor)
MWC invites Utah State, San Jose State and Idaho
C-USA invites Louisiana Tech and UTSA
Sun Belt invites Texas State
New Mexico State is left without a conference

alt: BYU remains independent, the Big 12 adds Air Force instead and the MWC accepts New Mexico State. Getting BYU and Boise State will be critical for the Big 12 to keep their BCS AQ status.

Scenario 2--WAC survives
SEC invites Texas A&M and Oklahoma
Texas becomes independent
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State
Big 12 disbands
MWC invites Texas Tech and Kansas State
WAC invites Iowa State
C-USA invites Baylor and MTSU

alt: Big East invites Texas Tech and Kansas State as well (That would put the Big East at 20 overall and 12 for football). The MWC invites Baylor and Iowa State and the WAC is left alone.

I'm sure that I will be bombarded with other scenarios. But in the long run, the WAC could emerge from the ashes of other conferences or the WAC could die. If the SEC expands, it all depends on how the other conferences react.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

TV Deals...Some People Are Not Getting a Penny This Year

The Runnin' Utes will not get a dime of TV money in 2011, unless their game with BYU is televised nationally. Same for Hawaii. Any wonder why TCU did an about face and was willing to play the Cougars on a neutral field this year? TV money.

The WAC is cutting Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii out of the TV money this year. And the MWC is doing the same to TCU. Utah, in their first year in the PAC-12...nothing. These programs, in transition have to worry how to get by without any TV revenues.

But do not feel too bad for Utah, in a few years the Utes will be getting 21 million per year. TCU will be getting a hunka change as well. Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii...will get a million or so every year with the MWC TV deal, which is renegotiable every season.

As for the WAC, they will have to get by on about 500,000 per school. Schools will need the BYU agreement to help out.

Now for BYU, they get an immediate windfall. About 3 million per game. And there are already 3 games scheduled for ESPN. Home games against Central Florida and Utah State and the aforementioned game against TCU. That will net the Cougs about 9 million and counting for 2011. Expect that the Utah game will be on an ESPN network and a couple of other 2011 games to show up at least upon ESPN 3. And if both BYU and Hawaii are on the BCS radar in December, do you think that ESPN will ignore it? Yep, it looks like the Honolulu Star forgot to mention that one.

In the end, the Cougars still get 14 to 15 million. And yes, that pales in comparison to the 21 million per year that the PAC-12 schools gross. But it is far better than what the Cougars used to get.

The Real New Threat to the WAC...Attendance.

What will life in the WAC be like without Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii? It is possible that there will be weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth when it comes to counting gate receipts. No where was that more of a problem than with Idaho this past season. The Kibbie Dome, one of the smallest venues in the FBS, has struggled to bring in the kind of crowds needed for the Idaho Vandals to remain a Football Bowl Subdivision team.

Here is the game-by-game attendance for Idaho in 2010:

S2 (Thursday) North Dakota 45-0 win 11,466 (Idaho's Record now 1-0 with 1-0 at home)
S18 UNLV 30-7 win 15,390 (Idaho's Record now 2-1, 2-0 at home)
O23 New Mexico State 37-14 win 13,812 (Idaho's Record now 4-3, 3-0 at home)
N6 #23 Nevada 67-17 loss 11,247 (Idaho's record now 4-5, 3-1 at home)
N12 #4 Boise State 52-14 loss 16,453 (Idaho's record now 4-6, 3-2 at home)
D4 San Jose State 26-23 win 8,011 (Idaho's final record 6-7, 4-2 at home)

According to the NCAA, Idaho's 2010 attendance was 12,730, which was 2nd worst in the FBS. In 2009, they were at 12,546, which means they saw only a slight improvement. Looking at Idaho's attendance history, the pattern is similar year after year.

When was Idaho's attendance the best?
1. Against Boise State.
2. Against winnable FBS opponents
3. When going to a bowl game was a possibility
4. In October and November when attendance in not inhibited by weather.

Boise State will not be on the schedule for a while. Therefore, Idaho should look as some of the other strongly attended games and pattern future schedules in the same manner. They should avoid playing games late in the year. This is curious. Why would you avoid playing games late in the season if you have an indoor stadium? It is because much of their fan base has to travel to Moscow. You can keep the game indoors and out of the weather, but you can not keep travel to the game indoors and out of the weather. If I were Idaho, I would forget about playing anything at home after Thanksgiving. The crowds do not seem to turn out. Here are the full recommendations.

1. Patch things up with Boise State and keep the rivalry going.
2. Try to play the games against the stronger conference opponents earlier in the season.
3. Fans will remain interested if there is something worth playing for at the end of the season...keep the schedule balanced.
4. No home games after Thanksgiving.

Finally, do not give up the dream for a new outdoor stadium. Just, first, work on getting people to the current indoor stadium.

Monday, May 2, 2011

A Look Ahead to 2013

A look at 2013 schedules. This post will be updated when additional information is available.

BYU 2013 Schedule

A31 Open
S7 Texas
S14 Utah**
S21 Boise State
S28 Open
O4 @Utah State
O12 Ga Tech
O19 @Houston
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 @ Notre Dame
N23 Open
N30 Open
D7 @Hawaii**

**Marks an assumed adjustment.

Needs: 2 Road Games
2/3 Home games.
Option to schedule another game due to visiting Hawaii. BYU did not take advantage of this option in 2011.

Bowl Commitment: Kraft Fight Hunger

Commentary: Fans finally getting rewarded for independence. Texas, Boise State, Utah and Georgia Tech at home. My hunch is that you will see San Jose State and Louisiana Tech fill out the home schedule . The road schedule could be filled out with a big "name" school and a weaker opponent like Idaho considering that renovations on the Kibbie Hole, I mean Dome, will be complete and considering Idaho visits Provo in both 2011 and 2012.

Utah 2013 Schedule

A29 Utah State
S7 Open
S14 @BYU
S21 Open
S28 Open
O5 Open
O12 Open
O19 Open
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 Open
N23 Open
N30 Colorado
D6 PAC 12 Championship

PAC-12 South Division Home Games: Arizona Stat and UCLA
PAC-12 South Division Road Games: Arizona and USC
PAC-12 Other Games: 2 @ Home and 2 on the road
Need: 1 more non-conference game, expect an FCS team at home.

Commentary:

Utah State 2013 Schedule


A29 @ Utah
S7 San Diego State
S14 Open
S21 @ USC
S28 @ UNLV
O4 BYU
O12 Open
O19 Open
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 Open
N23 Open
N30 Open
D6 Open

Need 1 more home game.
Unscheduled WAC Home Games: Louisiana Tech, UTSA and San Jose State
Unscheduled WAC Road Games: Idaho, Texas State and New Mexico State

Commentary:
There is a lot in the air between now and 2013. The WAC could add at least one more member in 2013 or 2014, but could lose Louisiana Tech to another conference and/or Idaho to FCS relegation due to their poor attendance. If the WAC loses 2, it will stop sponsoring football. The Aggies could get an MWC invite which means that San Diego State and UNLV become conference games.

Weber State 2013 Schedule

A31 Open
S7 Open
S14 Open
S21 Open
S28 Sacramento State
O5 @ Eastern Washington
O12 @ Cal Poly
O19 Montana State
O26 Open
N2 @ Portland State
N9 Southern Utah
N16 @ Montana
N23 Idaho State
N30 FCS Playoffs

Commentary:
The NCAA in 2013 and 2014 is experimenting with beginning the playoffs a week later. They will begin in week 14 instead of week 13. This gives the FCS schools additional flexibility in scheduling. Perhaps WSU can get a week between their body bag games to rest up.

SUU 2013 Schedule

A31 Open
S7 Open
S14 Open
S21 Open
S28 @ Northern Colorado
O5 UC Davis
O12 Portland State
O19 @ Eastern Washington
O26 Idaho State
N2 Open
N9 @ Weber State
N16 @ Montana State
N23 Northern Arizona
N30 FCS Playoffs

Commentary:
Again, I am pleased that the playoffs are a week later. Should be easier to get some good teams scheduled.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Bowl Tie Ins

Here is the updated information on Bowl Tie ins for the next few years.

PAC-12
1. Rose (BCS) vs Big 10
2. Alamo vs Big 12
3. Holiday vs Big 12
4. Sun vs ACC
5. Las Vegas vs MWC
6. Kraft Fight Hunger vs Army (or WAC).

2012-2013
7. New Mexico vs MWC

2014 and Beyond
7. Los Angeles/CMN vs BYU (If certified. Put on hold until 2014).

BYU
2011 Armed Forces vs C-USA
2012 Poinsettia vs MWC
2013 Kraft Fight Hunger vs PAC-12
2014 and beyond Los Angeles/CMN vis PAC-12 (If certified. Put on hold until 2014).

WAC
2011
1. Poinsettia vs MWC
2. Humanitarian vs MAC
3. New Mexico vs MWC
4. Hawaii--goes to Hawaii if bowl eligible and not BCS bound
5. Alt for Kraft Fight Hunger if Army is not bowl eligible or is BCS bound.

2012 and Beyond
1. Humanitarian

Possible
2. 2014 Return to the New Mexico Bowl if the LA/CMN bowl is certified.