Thursday, September 30, 2010

College Preview for 10/02/10

Mountain West Conference

BYU at Utah State

Bronco Mendenhall does not say that this is a must win game.  He does not want to put too much pressure on the young Jake Heaps.  But this is a must win game for both teams.  It would take a miracle for either to make a bowl game beginning 1-4.  Both teams have two ranked teams left.

Utah State 31 BYU 28

TCU at Colorado State

The Rams finally showed some toughness in getting their first win in a long time last week against Idaho.  But this is not Idaho.

TCU 41 Colorado State 3

Air Force 28 Navy 27

UTEP at New Mexico

This has been a do or die year for both coaches, who sit in the same hot seat.  However, going 3-1 seems to have help Mike Price.  Locksley, on the other hand, may not last the season.  It will not get any better this week.

UTEP 38 New Mexico 6

Wyoming at Toledo

When will Austyn Carta-Samuels show the promise that he had last season?  When will the Cowboy offense pony up?  No better time than now.

Wyoming 28 Toledo 13

Nevada at UNLV

The Wolfpack has the pistol, and now they will get the Fremont Cannon.

Nevada 41 UNLV 20

Game of the Week

Navy at Air Force

You will only confuse yourself if you try to think of Navy as a passing team and Air Force as a running team.  Navy's spread could be the best at a service academy since the days of Staubach.  Air Force is also poised and disciplined.  It should be fun watching our future military leaders duke it out.


WAC

BYU at Utah State...Nevada at UNLV...see above.

UC Davis at San Jose State

Two weeks ago, the Spartans nearly lost to an FCS school.  Now another one comes to town.  The Aggies lack the punch that SUU had a couple of weeks ago and the Spartans should have plenty of hunger.

SJSU 21 UCD 13

Boise State at New Mexico State

This is the part of the season where someone who is really motivated could knock the Broncos off of their perch.  Could it be this week?  Nah?!  This game will show why UNM has left the WAC.

BSU 60 NMSU 3

Cal Poly at Fresno State

Chris Hill said that Cal Poly would make a real good WAC team someday.  But Fresno should show the Mustangs why they belong in the Big Sky conference for now.

FSU 38 Poly 17

Louisiana Tech at Hawaii

Travel?  At this time of year, what is the difference between Rushton, LA and Honolulu, HI?  Hawaii should take care of the travel weary Bulldogs.  If not, don't expect McMackin to stay in Hawaii much longer.

Hawaii 35 La Tech 20

Game of the week:

Idaho at Western Michigan

Last week, Idaho gave Colorado State their first win in nearly an entire season.  They take on an equally inept WMU team this week.  But the Vandals need to respect this opponent and not play down to them, or their bowl chances become slim.  Robb Akey should rally his troops to the challenge.

Idaho 35 WMU 28

Big Sky Conference

Northern Arizona at Southern Utah

Last year, this border battle was a real barn burner.  But almost every game under the Walkup Skydome last year featured a lot of scoring.  Now the T-Birds are coming off of a blowout loss to Texas State while the Lumberjacks still have an outside shot at the FCS playoffs.  I don't think that this one will be as exciting as last year's game.

NAU 48 SUU 20

Eastern Washington at Weber State

I don't know if Taiwan Jones will play this week.  If he does not, EWU doesn't have enough offense even to counter Weber's lack of a running game.   If Taiwan can be a factor, Weber's lack of a running game will give Jones plenty of opportunity.  Both teams need a win to keep playoff hopes alive.

Without Taiwan
Weber 29 EWU 10
With Taiwan
EWU 25 Weber 21


Idaho State at Portland State


This was the only win the Bengals had last season.  Look for the Vikings to return the favor.


PSU 42 ISU 10


Montana State at Sacramento State


The Hornets look serious this year.  But the Bobcats are the real deal.


MSU 42 SAC 17
Game of the week:

Montana at Northern Colorado

The Grizzlies have not had much of an attack in the last two weeks.  The Bears would love the opportunity to shut down Chase Reynolds and spoil the rest of Montana's season.

NCU 25 Montana 23

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

WAC...invitations to go out? Hawaii going Indy?

I have seen a lot of twitter traffic that seems to confirm that the WAC will invite the following sometime in October:

All Sports:
Montana
Texas State
Texas San Antonio


All But Football:
Denver
Seattle

This will put the WAC at 9 schools for football and 11 schools in other sports?  No so fast!  This will likely please Louisiana Tech.  Unsure if this will placate Hawaii.  I suspect it will not.  Benson indicates that 8 for football and 10 for basketball is the model they prefer at this time.  This could be the sign that Hawaii will be going independent in football and joining the Big West for their other sports.  Without Hawaii, the WAC would have a good travel model for basketball.

Potential Travel Partners:
San Jose State <--> Seattle
Montana <--> Idaho
Utah State <--> Denver
New Mexico State <--> Texas State
UTSA <--> La Tech

Hawaii in the Big West:
Hawaii would be the 10th Big West Member and the only one outside the State of California since Utah State and Idaho joined the WAC.  They are would not be the only ones that play football, but the only ones playing at the FBS level.  Cal Poly and Cal Davis park their non-football sports in the Big West.  Five Big West programs are within an hour (in normal traffic) bus-ride of the Anaheim airport.  It would be a good fit for Hawaii's non-football programs.  Hawaii could travel-partner with CS-Northridge.

For football, they could have an easier time at scheduling than BYU.  Who doesn't want to go to Hawaii in November?

We should know if all of this is happening by Halloween, or at the latest, by Thanksgiving.




Tuesday, September 28, 2010

What if the FCS Playoffs were held today...September 29, 2010


Seedings (Sagarin Ranking):
1.      James Madison (CAA) (36)
2.      Delaware (CAA) (66)
3.      VILLANOVA (CAA) (72)
4.      U-Mass (CAA) (84)
5.      APPALACHIAN STATE (SoCon) (88)
6.      North Dakota State (Valley) (90)
7.      William and Mary (CAA) (92)
8.      Furman (SoCon) (93)
9.      JACKSONVILLE STATE (OVC) (99)
10.  Georgia Southern (SoCon) (103)
11.  Richmond (CAA) (105)
12.  SFA (Southland) (108)
13.  MONTANA STATE (BSC) (111)
14.  Cal Poly (GWC) (112)
15.  New Hampshire (CAA) (115)
16.  ILLINOIS STATE (Valley) (127)
17.  LIBERTY (Big South) (141)
18.  GEORGETOWN (Patriot) (179)
19.  ROBERT MORRIS (NEC) (180)
20.  BETHUNE-COOKMAN (MEAC) (181)

Current Conference leaders are in ALL CAPS.

Last 4 in: New Hampshire, Cal Poly, Richmond, Georgia Southern
First 4 out: Montana, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona
Next 4 on the outside looking in: Northern Iowa, Texas State, Sacramento State and Weber State

By Conference:
8--Colonial
3--Southern Conference
2--Missouri Valley
1--Big Sky, Great West, Big South, Southland Patriot, Northeast, Mid East

First Round Games:
Game 1: 20 Bethune-Cookman at 13 Montana State
Game 2: 19 Robert Morris        at 14 Cal Poly
Game 3: 18 Georgetown           at 15 New Hampshire
Game 4: 17 Liberty                   at 16 Illinois State

Second Round Games:
Game 4 winner            at 1 James Madison
9 Jacksonville Sate      at 8 Furman
Game 1 winner            at 4 U-Mass
12 SFA                      at 5 Appalachian State
11 Richmond              at 6 North Dakota State
Game 2 winner           at 3 Villanova
10 Georgia Southern  at 7 William and Mary
Game 3 winner           at 2 Delaware

Commentary: 8 CAA teams?  Only 1 Big Sky team and that team does not even get a first round bye?  Montana outside looking in?  What!?  Doesn't seem fair, does it?  Don't worry, the CAA teams still have to play each-other.  Right now, however, the CAA dominates the top of the rankings.

WAC Expansion Update...No Update.

There were presentations made earlier today in Dallas.  But, as expected, there were no formal invitations made.  Montana, UTSA and Texas State petitioned for full membership.  Seattle and Denver petitioned for basketball-only membership.  Two of these five represent large potential markets for the WAC, while Montana brings in about 25 years of consistency.  There are other schools that want to petition the WAC as well, and should get the chance to make their case.  These schools are rumored to be Portland State and Sacramento State.  Montana State may also wish to join their brother and rival school.

While all of these schools have scholarships to add, only these six football schools have both the facilities and fan support to make the move to the FBS in the next 5 to 6 years.  Cal Poly, Cal Davis and Northern Arizona lack the facilities.  Weber State lacks the fan support.

One school no mentioned in all of this expansion talk that could be an asset to the WAC is Eastern Washington.  They have the market, fan support and facilities to make be a strong addition to the WAC.  Could it be that no one knows where Cheney, Washington is?  It is only 17 miles southwest of Spokane.  The only competition in their metro area is Gonzaga, who has not had a football team since the Nixon administration.  It is a nice, quiet bedroom community.  If this campus does not want to move up, it could be that they wish to take over as the 'beast of the Big Sky' in the absence of Montana.  They are in a good position to do so.

Monday, September 27, 2010

WAC Expansion...goings on in Dallas Today.

According to the Idaho Statesman, 5 schools: Texas State, UTSA, Montana, Denver and Seattle will make formal membership presentations to Karl Benson and the other WAC presidents today.  Here is my take: The three football schools are in and will be welcomed with open arms.  The basketball only schools, on the other hand, make good arguments that will be difficult to turn down.  This would put the WAC at 8 schools for football and 10 for other sports.  Likely, it will not be the end of expansion as the conference looks for a more travel-friendly solution to keep Hawaii and Louisiana Tech. 

Therefore, this is not the end of WAC hopes for Montana State, Portland State nor Sacramento State.  It is also not the end of WAC hopes for Cal-Poly nor Cal Davis either.  I do not believe the WAC will add these schools for 2012 -2013 and stop there.  Why not go all the way to a 12/14 school conference in 2014 and give some of the other candidates some time to build their programs and raise the needed funds?

One other note.  The WCC does not compete in Softball, Swimming/Diving, Track and Field.  BYU is still looking for a conference for these sports.  Expect the WAC to extend the invitation to BYU as an associate member for these three sports as well.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Power Rankings 9/26/2010

Mountain West Conference.

It went almost as expected in week 4...the exception is what happened in Laramie over the weekend.  Air Force was shut down for three quarters.  Too bad the Wyoming offense was unable to take advantage.  But that has been the story in Laramie all season.

Offensive Player of the Week: San Diego State WR Vincent Brown.  5 catches for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Defensive Team of the Week: San Diego State
Game of the Week: Colorado State 36 Idaho 34

Power Rankings:

1.  TCU
2.  Utah
3.  Air Force
4.  San Diego State
5.  BYU
6.  Wyoming
7.  Colorado State
8.  UNLV
9.  New Mexico

WAC

Boise State has nothing but fluff for the rest of the season?  Fresno State and Idaho are not exactly cream puffs, and look at what Nevada has done.  BSU needs to take nothing for granted as they move toward the heart of the WAC season.

Offensive Player of the Week: Boise State QB Kellen Moore 3 TD Passes
Defensive Team of the Week: Nevada
Game of the Week: Boise State 37 Oregon State 24

Power Rankings.

1.  Boise State
2.  Nevada
3.  Fresno State
4.  Idaho
5.  Utah State
6.  Louisiana Tech
7.  Hawaii
8.  New Mexico State
9.  San Jose State

Big Sky Conference

In the Treasure State, roles have been reversed.  Suddenly, the team from Bozeman looks unbeatable and the team from Missoula is struggling.  Sure, both came out winners; Montana State crushed the same Eastern Washington team that beat their arch rivals last week.  While the Grizzlies struggled but eventually got the win at home against Sacramento State.  Things seem topsy-turvey up north.

Offensive Player of the Week: Northern Arizona RB Zach Bauman 112 yards on 21 carries.
Defensive Team of the Week: Montana State
Game of the Week: Montana 28 Sacramento State 25

Power Rankings:
1.  Montana State
2.  Montana
3.  Eastern Washington
4.  Northern Arizona
5.  Weber State
6.  Northern Colorado
7.  Sacramento State
8.  Portland State
9.  Idaho State

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Knee jerk reactions

Nevada 27 BYU 13

The defense is much improved over last two weeks.  Too bad the offense is lagging behind.  Now they are in a must-win situation.  Also, no tight end catches...IMHO this is why BYU this year is so un-BYU like this season...where are the tight ends?

Utah 56 San Jose State3

Ywn

San Diego State 41 Utah State 7

Is this the same Utah State team that put a scare into Oklahoma in Norman?

Weber State 20 Cal-Davis 9

A late start is better than no start at all.

Friday, September 24, 2010

What if the FCS playoffs were held today.

What if the FCS playoff were held today? Here are the projected seeds:

Automatic Bids:

Big Sky--Eastern Washington
Big South--Liberty
CAA--Villanova
MEAC--Florida A&M
Missouri Valley--Southern Illinois
NEC--Bryant
OVC--Jacksonville
Southern-Stephen F. Austin
Southland--McNeese State
SoCon--Appalachian State

10-At large:
James Madison
Richmond
Delaware
Elon
South Carolina State
Montana
Northern Iowa
Montana State
North Dakota State
Cal-Poly

Seedings
1. Villanova
2. Appalachian State
3. James Madison
4. Jacksonville
5. Richmond
6. SFA
7. Delaware
8. Eastern Washington
9. Elon
10. South Carolina State
11. Southern Illinois
12. Montana
13. Northern Iowa
14. Montana State
15. North Dakota State
16. McNeese State
17. Cal Poly
18. Liberty
19. Florida A&M
20. Bryant

1st round
20. Bryant at 13. Northern Iowa
19. Florida A&M at 14. Montana State
18. Liberty at 15. North Dakota State
19. Cal Poly at 16. McNeese State

2nd Round
Cal-Poly/McNeese State                  1.  Villanova
9. Elon                                              8. Eastern Washington
Bryant/Northern Iowa                       4. Jacksonville
12. Montana                                     5. Richmond
11. Southern Illinois                           6. SFA
Florida A&M/Montana State             3. James Madison
10. South Carolina State                    7. Delaware
Liberty/ND State                               2. Appalachian State

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Preview for 9.15.10

Mountain West Conference

TCU at SMU

This is the toughest team the Horned Frogs will face until it is time to fly into Salt Lake City. SMU is ready to prove that they have finally overcome the death penalty...over 20 years later. June Jones is trying to win back some fan support long lost. If TCU can pass this test, they will roll for most of the rest of the season until they run into Whittingham's brick wall.

TCU 42 SMU 24

Air Force at Wyoming

Austyn Carta-Samuels is suffering from a sophomore jinx and has not shown, so far this season, the promise that he finished last season with. The most telling game this year was not the loss to Texas nor the loss to Boise State, but the close win against Southern Utah. This Air Force team is not the team to rebound against. They have been tough even in their one loss.

Air Force 31 Wyoming 17

Idaho at Colorado State

Last year, it was a win against Colorado State that sent Idaho flying and CSU reeling. It will not be so special against this year's CSU team, but important that Idaho get the win in order to go bowling two years in a row.

Idaho 28 CSU 10

Nevada at Brigham Young

This one could be a shootout. Conventional wisdom says that Jake Heaps will need another week or two to get his legs under him. My head says that Nevada wins easily. My gut says otherwise. I will split the difference.

Nevada 52 BYU 49

San Jose State at Utah

Mmm...another blowout victory for Utah. Yawn!

Utah 52 San Jose State 3

New Mexico at UNLV

Both teams need a W and this is UNM's best chance until they play CSU. I believe in UNLV. At least this week I am not betting against them.

UNLV 28 UNM 15

WAC

Nevada at Brigham Young
New Mexico at UNLV
San Jose State at Utah
see MWC preview above

New Mexico State at Kansas

On paper this is a blowout. So was the North Dakota State game. But this game features something that should happen more often in college football...African American head coaches on both sidelines.

Kansas 21 NMSU 14

Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech

Here is La Tech auditioning for the conference that they would like to join. Too bad it is one of the better CUSA-east teams.

Southern Miss 35 La Teach 21

Fresno State at Mississippi

In most seasons, this is where Fresno State has a chance to impress a national audience and then blow it. It will be no different this season.

Ole Miss 28 Fresno 24

Oregon State at Boise State

This game will be a test for the Bronco defense, but not the Bronco offense.

BSU 42 OSU 29

Game of the Week for both the WAC and the MWC

Utah State at San Diego State

Both teams need this one to go bowling this year. Both teams feature exciting quarterbacks who deserve to show off in the post season. Both teams feature good coaches who deserve to be coaching at bigger schools. Both teams have long suffering fans. Both deserve this game.

SDSU 42 Utah State 40


Big Sky Conference

Northern Colorado at Michigan State

Another Big $ky money game. Try not to get hurt. MSU will have an emotional factor in this one.

MSU 49 UNC 10

Sacramento State at Montana

Is Sacramento State really this good? Is Montana really this bad? I do not think so.

Montana 41 Sac State 10

Northern Arizona at Idaho State

It the battle of the small domes...I mean tiny indoor stadiums. This is another chance for Zamberlin to earn his contract. It is also a chance for NAU to build some mo and get to the post season. The Lumberjacks should prevail.

NAU 28 ISU 3

UC Davis at Weber State

This is a must win match-up between two 1-2 teams who have become accustomed to the post season. The loser likely will not get there this year.

WSU 38 UCD 31

Game of the Week

Eastern Washington at Montana State

No red turf for EWU this week, just a chance to freeze your tookus of in Bozeman. Well, if this were a normal September, it would be that cold. But the low on Saturday will be in the 40s. This season's MSU squad is good, but are they good enough to stop Taiwan Jones? The key will be to keep him on the bench watching the Bobcat offense. Which MSU has the talent to do.

MSU 29 EWU 24

Must Win Games the Weekend

Utah State at San Diego State

Is this a must-win game for the Aggies? Not exactly, they have BYU coming next week and we all know that BYU is not BYU this year. But the Cougars are not to be underestimated and could find their swagger either this week or next week. The Aggies are 1-2 right now and would have difficulty crawling out of a 1-3 hole even with all of the other creme puffs in the WAC coming up. Not a must win, but may as well be. San Diego State will be 3-1 with a win and half-way to their first bowl bid in years.

Nevada at BYU

This game is not a must-win for the Cougars, but BYU's offense needs to find their moxie. The two quarterback system is done and Jake Heaps gets all of the reps in this week's practice. The Cougars should score more than twice, and should score in the second half. They need to establish an offensive rhythm and become more "BYU-like". They have TCU and Utah coming up and Utah State and San Diego State will not be so easy this year. Going 1-3 will make it challenging to get to a bowl game this season, but it is still possible. Not a must win, but the team needs to make some positive progress this week.

UC Davis at Weber State

This game has must-win written all over it for both teams. The reasons are the same for both teams. In the FCS, there is no post season for a 6-5 team. A third loss for Weber probably means that they will need to win all of their remaining FCS games. They conclude the season at Texas Tech. Davis has FCS competition from here on out, but does not belong to a conference with an automatic playoff bid. They Aggies will also need to win out with a loss to maintain any post season hope with a loss. Both teams need this win.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Power Rankings with rumored 2012 alignment...for kicks and grins 9.20.10

Big Sky

With Cal Poly*, Cal Davis*, Southern Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Central Washington and Dixie State added. With Montana, Montana State, Portland State and Sacramento State subtracted.

*Official Invitees

1. Cal Poly
2. Eastern Washington
3. Northern Arizona
4. Cal Davis
5. Weber State
6. Central Washington
7. Southern Utah
8. Northern Colorado
9. North Dakota
10. South Dakota
11. Idaho State
12. Dixie State

WAC

With Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada removed. Texas State, UTSA, Montana, Montana State, Portland State and Sacramento State added.

(None are official)

1. Idaho
2. Montana State
3. Utah State
4. Montana
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Hawaii
7. Texas State
8. New Mexico State
9. Sacramento State
10. San Jose State
11. Portland State
12. UTSA

MWC--No BYU or Utah, but with Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada added

1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Nevada
4. Air Force
5. Fresno State
6. San Diego State
7. Wyoming
8. UNLV
9. Colorado State
10. New Mexico

Pac-12 Utah and Colorado added

1. Oregon
2. Utah
3. Oregon State
4. Arizona
5. Arizona State
6. USC
7. Washington
8. California
9. Stanford
10. UCLA
11. Washington State
12. Colorado

FBS Independents--You know who added.

1. Notre Dame
2. Navy
3. BYU
4. Army

WAC Expansion Update 9/21/10

In one week from today, commissioner Karl Benson and the WAC Expansion committee are meeting with Texas State, UTSA and other schools interested in joining the conference. It is reported that no decisions will be made at that time. But Bleacher Report says that the invitation will go out to Texas State and UTSA.

I don't regard BR as the most reliable source, at least as reliable as this blog. But I love the King Karl moniker.

Note:

Ever wonder why BYU is not visiting Idaho in 2012 as part of their agreement with the WAC? Could it be that the agreement includes a visit to Portland or Sacramento in 2012? Both are rumored WAC expansion schools and both metros have sizable LDS populations and a good number of BYU alum. A visit to Portland to take on Portland State would mean 23,000 at PGE Park in 2012. It would help with their transition.

Also, it occurred to me that if the WAC adds Texas State, UTSA, Montana, Montana State, Portland State and Sacramento State, that it would be better to have Montana and Idaho in the same division. Both schools are accessible from Spokane. Same for having Utah State and Montana State in the same division. Both are accessible from Salt Lake City. Therefore, the division alignment would be...

West Division
Idaho
Hawaii
Montana
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Jose State
(Travel Partners--Hawaii<>Portland State, Idaho<>Montana, Sacramento State<>San Jose State)

East Division
Louisiana Tech
Montana State
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA
Utah State
(Travel Partners--La Tech<>UTSA, TX St<>NMex State, UT State<>MT State)

Also, to ensure that Montana and Montana State meet every season, there would be one team from the other division that each team would meet every year. Here is how this could work.

Montana<>Montana State (In-state rivals)
Hawaii<>UTSA (Easiest travel destination for Hawaii)
Utah State<>Idaho (Nice Border Battle)
San Jose State<>New Mexico State (WAC rivals)
Portland State<>Texas State (why not?)
Sacramento State<>Louisiana Tech (short straws)

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Conference Power Rankings

Mountain West Conference

Even though BYU does not seem to be playing well right now, Wyoming is not showing me that they deserve to be ahead of BYU right now. The Cougars have plenty of time to right the ship. I think this year's BYU team with Jake Heaps is similar to last year's Wyoming team with Austyn Carta-Samuels. That team went 7-6 and was much better in the second half of the season. The trouble is that BYU has to deal with the Pistol of Colin Kaepernick next week.

Offensive Player of the Week: TCU RB Ed Wesley
Defensive Team of the Week: TCU
Game of the Week: Missouri 27 San Deigo State 24

Power Rankings:

1. TCU
2. Utah
3. Air Force
4. San Diego State
5. BYU
6. Wyoming
7. UNLV
8. Colorado State
9. New Mexico

WAC

I felt that the Fresno State game was a good measuring stick for the USU Aggies this season. It shows both how far they have come and how far they have yet to go. They have San Diego State on the road this next week. The winner of this Saturday's game will likely go to their first bowl game in a long time.

Offensive Players of the Week: NV QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Via Taua
Defensive Team of the Week: Boise State
Game of the Week: Since the criteria is being within two scores--sigh--San Jose State 16 Southern Utah 11

Power Rankings

1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Idaho
5. Utah State
6. Louisiana Tech
7. Hawaii
8. New Mexico State
9. San Jose State

Big Sky Conference

Eastern Washington is hoping that the Red Turf gives them similar luck to the Blue Turf in Boise. It is not the color of the turf that makes the team or the game. Boise State is simply a good team. EWU may become, assuming Montana leaves for the WAC, the beast of the Big Sky. But it will not be because of the color of the turf.

Offensive Player of the Week: Montana State RB Orenzo Davis
Defensive Team of the Week: Sacramento State
Game of the Week: Eastern Washington 36 Montana 27

Power Rankings
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Northern Arizona
4. Montana
5. Northern Colorado
6. Sacramento State
7. Weber State
8. Portland State
9. Idaho State

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Knee Jerk Reactions

BYU

Perhaps the reason why BYU when with the two-quarterback system is that they have no better option...and that is sad. At least they had one good quarter out of Jake Heaps this week. They will need about three times that much next week against Nevada. It looks like 1-3 is a real possibility.

Utah

The Utes clobbered New Mexico with one hand tied behind their back. No reason to risk further injury to Wynn tonight. No Need to.

Utah State

Tough to hold a slim lead against a team like Fresno State.

Weber State

It is too bad that WSU has to lose a game before they learn to take care of the ball.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

The Worst Case Scenario for the Big Sky...

As I mentioned in my last blog, the WAC may be preparing to add six schools in 2012. Four of those schools coming from the Big Sky Conference. That could be devastating for one of the better FCS conferences in the country. The four schools that could be lost are: Montana, Montana State, Portland State and Sacramento State. This represents two of the Big Sky's three major metro areas and one of the two most successful school in conference athletics in the past 15 years.

I have mentioned at least two other times good schools that the Big Sky can add. But the conference has added two of them as football-only programs. There are only two other FCS programs west of the Rocky Mountains. San Diego and Southern Utah. Of course SUU would come at the drop of a hat. San Diego is a possibility as another football-only program. It is doubtful that they will leave the WCC, especially now that the WCC is improving it's national profile. In football, USD plays in the Pioneer Conference, with their closest competition in Des Moines, Iowa. The Big Sky is a better place for their football program.

That leave the conference to consider inviting Division II schools or expanding east of the Rockies...or both.

Again, if the Big Sky needs to consider a D-II school, why not Dixie State? Without Portland and Sacramento, St George would be the second largest metro in the Big Sky, and would likely pass Ogden in the next 15 years. Why not bring Dixie State in with Southern Utah?

Central Washington is another quality D-II school that comes to mind. They have played well against Big Sky competition, lately. They lost a nail biter to Eastern Washington last weekend. Last year, they went to Pocatello and defeated Idaho State.

The other football members of the Great Northwest conference are Humboldt State, Western Oregon and Simon Fraser. Humboldt and Western Oregon are frequent visitors to Big Sky venues. Simon Fraser is the only Canadian School in the NCAA. They are located in a Vancouver Suburb.

East of the Rockies, the Big Sky can invite the remaining GWC members, North Dakota and South Dakota. They can also invite North Dakota State and South Dakota State, who are affiliated with other conferences.

At the DII level, the Rocky Mountain Conference can be raided. Mesa State in Grand Junction is a school that I have mentioned before. It fits well into the footprint of the Big Sky Conference. None of the big Denver-metro schools, like Metro State, play football.

Speaking of programs that do not currently play football, perhaps someone like Fullerton or Long Beach could begin to play football again. Someone like Bakersfield or Utah Valley could start a football program.

It is not the end of Big Sky Conference, unless they decide to change the name.

WAC expansion update

The tweets on WAC expansion seem to focus now on only 6 schools...

Montana
Montana State
Portland State
Sacramento State
Texas State
UTSA (Texas San Antonio)

Texas State and UTSA seem to be the most active. UTSA met with Karl Benson at WAC HQ on Tuesday.

Looks like a good short list.

My take...

Most of this is still in the rumor stage at this point, but this looks to me like the WAC is making a move to keep Hawaii. That is the only logic behind Portland State and Sacramento State. The WAC could then divide into divisions that would be travel-friendly for Hawaii. Montana, because they can succeed right away in this version of the WAC. Montana State to remove obstacles in bringing in their brother school. Texas State and USTA due to get a foothold in Texas for TV markets and for recruiting and to reduce travel expenses for Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State.

Texas State is a no-brainer for the WAC.

For Example:

West Division
Idaho
Hawaii
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Jose State
Utah State

Note: Idaho/Utah State are the schools in this division that is not reachable by direct flight from Honolulu. Logan (Utah State) is a 1 and 1/2 hour bus ride from Salt Lake City which is a direct flight from Honolulu. To get to Idaho, Hawaii would have to charter a flight to Spokane, and Moscow is a short bus ride from there (85 miles or an hour and a half).

East Division
Louisiana Tech
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA

In this division, only UTSA would be a direct flight from Honolulu.

The expansion, if it goes down like this, would be a big blow to the Big Sky conference.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

College Football Preview for 9.18.2010

Mountain West Conference:

I don't have a crystal ball, so I do not know what is going to happen. But I do not see any of these games as being close enough to be all that thrilling. BYU and Florida State are both on bounce back weeks, and both have a lot of problems to solve. It has potential. I think the best game will be upstart San Diego State taking on struggling Missouri.

Brigham Young at Florida State (21-38)
Colorado State at Miami of Ohio (7-24)
Air Force at Oklahoma (13-33)
Baylor at TCU (13-42)
Utah at New Mexico (42-6)
Boise State at Wyoming (45-10)
UNLV at Idaho (21-35)

Game of the Week:
San Diego State at Missouri (17-28)

WAC:
The WAC games will be a little more exciting to watch. Perhaps Cal will have a little trouble with the pistol offense and the altitude in Reno. Fresno State has brought home some bad memories from Logan the past two visits there. They had to kick a long field goal to survive last time. Again, I think that an FCS team can beat an FBS team, but no worries, it is only San Jose State.

Boise State at Wyoming (45-10)
UNLV at Idaho (21-35)
Hawaii at Colorado (13-42)
Navy at Louisiana Tech (45-21)
Fresno State at Utah State (38-35)
Southern Utah at San Jose State (28-26)
New Mexico State at UTEP (13-33)

Game of the Week:
California at Nevada (33-35)

Big Sky Conference:

I think that the WAC will have the more exciting games this week, but there will still be some fun football in the Big Sky. This will be highlighted by Pioneer Conference power, Drake, finding their way to Bozeman and Montana testing the red turf in Cheney taking on the Eagles.

Drake at Montana State (17-24)
Idaho State at Northern Colorado (10-42)
Portland State at Oregon (13-52)
Weber State at Sacramento State (45-10)

Game of the Week:
Montana at Eastern Washington (36-35)

Rebuilding the WAC...

The WAC has sued Nevada and Fresno State to keep them in the WAC through the 2011-12 school year. Karl Benson admits that this is a survival move. It is as much about keeping Hawaii and Louisiana Tech in the conference, which much happen if there is any hope of keeping the WAC a going concern. The membership committee continues to study the possibilities of which schools to invite.

One of my concerns about Montana, which I voiced in this blog nearly a year ago is the lack of local recruits. This is why Texas State is such a strong option, and probably the first option for the WAC. It is so much easier to justify the scholarship that will be given to an athlete if his/her parents are subsidizing the program indirectly through taxes. Look at the roster of any college team in Texas, including the University of Texas and Texas A & M, and the lion share of these athletes are Texans. The lion share of athletes on Montana's roster are from California.

The availability of local recruits gives any school from Texas, California and NAU an advantage as potential WAC schools. It gives everyone else a disadvantage. It is not a killer, but it helps reduce expenses.

Another problem for some programs is not the availability of local athletes, but competition for them. Three potential new WAC programs are competing with PAC-12 schools for recruits. This is a big disadvantage. If you were 18 and had the choice, would you take the chance and try to walk-on to a PAC-12 school or take a scholarship at a WAC school. Remember, you are 18 and believe that you can do anything. Mom and Dad may say one thing, but the mind of an 18-year-old is a little different. Mom and Dad may also believe that a PAC-12 school is more likely to lead to self-reliance and may be willing to pay tuition at a school that they feel is likely to lead to a better job.

The populations of Texas, Arizona and California are large enough that the ego factor is canceled out, somewhat. But no so much in Oregon, Washington and Utah.

There is one way to cancel out this problem, and that is success. If Montana can succeed at the FBS-level right away, they will win recruits.

Local athletes

An advantage to:
Texas State
Lamar
UTSA
Cal Davis
Cal Poly
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona

Disadvantage to:
Montana
Montana State

Competition for local athletes a disadvantage to:
Eastern Washington
Portland State
Weber State

BTW--there are two FCS mascots involved in the Capital One National Mascot of the Year contest. One of them is Monte.

Monday, September 13, 2010

More BYU rumors...

Update: Bronco says Riley will start!

Old Blog:

Seeing some rumors that Jake Heaps will start at FSU on Saturday. Would indicate that BYU is playing for the future today. Doak Walker Stadium is a pretty intimidating place for a true freshman to make his first college start. I personally doubt this will happen, but it may better than letting him sit on the bench for the first series. We will find out on Saturday. I expect rumors like this to continue until Jake is ready to start.

According to a Greg Wrubbell tweet, the last time BYU started a true freshman was 1997, game 8. Drew Miller, a highly touted QB from Washington. He did not mention the outcome. It was a 14-3 loss to UTEP. This was one of LaVell's worst seasons at BYU. They finished 6-6 with no bowl game. There were only 2 seasons after the national championship in 1984 where there was no bowl game for BYU with LaVell roaming the sidelines. This was one of them. This season, 1997, included a loss to Utah at home. The other 6-6 no bowl for LaVell came in 2000, but did include a win over Utah.

Mr Miller went on a mission, came back to BYU when Brandon Doman was hot, did not get the playing time he felt he was entitled to, and ended up finishing his football career at Montana.

There seems to be a lot of parallels between Miller and Heaps. There also seems to be a lot of parallels between 1997 and 2010. Let's hope this scenario does not play out.

Texas State Information

Link to Texas State's stadium expansion plans.

ksl.com - Bronco: QB Reps "Might Become More Situational"

Mendenhall on the QB situation in Provo

ksl.com - Bronco: QB Reps "Might Become More Situational"

Hawaii Independence on the Horizon?

The latest on WAC Expansion and details of potential Hawaii independence.

My take...

Montana will make expansion work if the can convince boosters to put money where their mouth is. Perhaps the WAC, with the money being extorted from Nevada and Fresno State can assist as well. The cost is prohibitive for every potential WAC member that is currently an FCS member, but at least Montana and Montana State do not have to pay for a stadium expansion.

Independence for Hawaii and the Big West in other sports will significantly reduce travel costs. Bring on the Cougars.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

New Power Rankings for 9.12.10

The favorites all won in the WAC, therefore, there is no change in the power rankings from last week.

Offensive player of the Week: Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick
Defensive Team of the Week: Nevada
Game of the week: Hawaii 31 Army 28

Nevada 51 Colorado State 6
San Diego State 41 New Mexico State 21
Utah State 38 Idaho State 17
Texas A&M 48 Louisiana Tech 16
Nebraska 37 Idaho 17
Wisconsin 27 San Jose State 14
Hawaii 31 Army 28

1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Idaho
5. Utah State
6. Louisiana Tech
7. Hawaii
8. New Mexico State
9. San Jose State

MWC

It was not a big surprise that Air Force beat BYU, it was the fact that we witnessed BYU's worst offensive performance since the 3-0 loss to Utah. Otherwise, things went as expected.

Offensive Player of the Week: Air Force RB Asher Clark
Defensive Team of the Week: Air Force
Game of the Week: None Chosen. Sorry, no games were within two scores.

Nevada 51 Colorado State 6
San Diego State 41 New Mexico State 21
Air Force 35 BYU 14
Utah 38 UNLV 10
Texas 34 Wyoming 7
TCU 62 Tennessee Tech 7
Texas Tech 52 New Mexico 17

Power Rankings
1. TCU
2. Utah
3. Air Force
4. San Diego State
5. BYU
6. Wyoming
7. UNLV
8. Colorado State
9. Wyoming

With 2012 alignment:

1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Nevada
4. Air Force
5. Fresno State
6. San Diego State
7. Wyoming
8. UNLV
9. Colorado State
10. Wyoming

Big Sky
This is where the action was this week. We had Eastern Washington almost loosing to a D-II squad. Montana State almost beating a FBS school, while Northern Arizona hung with Arizona State for 3 quarters. Cal Poly getting past Montana with their backup quarterback. Not to mention the 4-OT thriller in Ogden. Yes, it was a fun Saturday in "The Sky." All of this puts quite the shuffle in the power rankings.

Co-Offensive Players of the Week: Weber State QB Cameron Higgins, Portland State RB Cory McCaffrey,
Defensive Team of the Week: Montana State
Game of the Week: Weber State 50 Northern Colorado 47

Power Rankings:
1. Montana State
2. Weber State
3. Montana
4. Northern Arizona
5. Northern Colorado
6. Portland State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Sacramento State
9. Idaho State

With 2011 Alignment

1. Cal Poly
2. Montana State
3. Weber State
4. Montana
5. Northern Arizona
6. Northern Colorado
7. Portland State
8. Cal Davis
9. Eastern Washington
10. Sacramento State
11. Idaho State

Honorable Mention...Weber State gave up six fumbles but still won. Can't award a defensive team that gives up 47 points in a football game especially when the Bobcat defense played so well in Pullman. But allowing only 13 points from six turnovers is commendable.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Knee Jerk Reactions

BYU/Air Force--

I held my comments about the 2 QB system...until now. It is a flop. Drop it.

Utah/UNLV--

Same old Utah, same old UNLV. Yawn.

Utah State/Idaho State

A little bit closer than one would expect for an upstart FBS program vs a floundering FCS program. Perhaps someone did not take their opponent seriously enough.

Weber State vs Northern Colorado

I know the rule states that a team must only try a two point conversion beyond the second overtime. That rule was designed to keep the game from becoming a marathon. But if the game can be won with a conventional conversion, lets not force a two-point try.

The Moving from the FCS to the FBS.

The WAC is moving carefully in deciding how to expand. As of now, there will be 6 schools in the conference in 2012. And the conference is moving deliberately to ensure that Hawaii, Utah State and Louisiana Tech say on board. If two of the three leave, the WAC is over. I do not have an inside track on the criteria, but whoever moves up, it will be costly. Here is how costly, using the most likely candidate, the University of Montana.

Here is the list of candidates.

Montana
Montana State
Texas State
Lamar
Cal Poly
Cal Davis
Sacramento State
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Weber State

Expense #1 -- Scholarships.

Expect for the schools in Texas and California, the majority of athletes will come from out of state. At the University of Montana, the listed cost of attendance is 25,000. That is for tuition, room and board and food. In Missoula, they will need to add some 50 scholarship athletes, most from out of state. That is 22 for football and another 25-28 for the two woman's sports that need to be added. That is a cool 1,000,000 dollars right there.

Expense #2 -- Travel.

Montana would replace bi-annual trips to places like Pocatello, Idaho with exotic places like Honolulu, Hawaii.

Expense #3 -- Facilities.

Fortunately, Montana will not have to expand their stadium to be FBS eligible. But an indoor practice facility would help with recruiting. This is an optional expense that donors could help with. But there will need to be improved weight rooms and other training facilities will help get blue chip athletes to your football program. Equipment will need to be modernized regularly.

Expense #4 -- Recruiting

Schools like Montana will have to cast a wider net for new recruits. Montana already recruits heavily from California. They will have to expand that net to Texas and the Southeast if they expect to compete at the FCS level. That means bringing more recruits to campus and visiting potential recruits wherever they live. That could add another 500,000 in cost.

Therefore, for the University of Montana, expect that they would incur as much as an additional 3,000,000 to 3,500,000 in expense annually.

This gives a program like Texas State the inside track in getting to the WAC. They have a decided advantage in recruiting and already have FBS-worthy facilities. The expense will likely eliminate schools like Cal Poly in the current economy as they will have the additional expense of expanding a stadium. Right now, that expense is almost impossible to justify, politically. For Montana, the additional revenue would have to more than exceed the additional expense so that money can be added to the endowment and this additional expense can be paid with interest. Montana, however, still has a Pac-10 sized endowment which gives them an advantage. The WAC will want to consider FCS schools that already have a large enough football stadium for the FCS.

The WAC then needs to consider other factors, like community support. For example, even though Weber State, Portland State and Sacramento State are in larger TV markets, they struggle to get even 8,000 to a football game. It may be difficult for these programs to get the required 15,000 paid or actual attendees to a game.



Therefore, the WAC needs to consider the following in their choice of invitees.

1. Are the needed facilities already in place?
2. Does the program already draw the required 15,000 fans?
3. Does the program have the recruiting structure in place?
4. Does the program fit geographically within the footprint to minimize travel expense?
5. Does the program have a large enough TV market?
6. Can the program reduce expenses by recruiting locally?
7. Does the school perform well at sports other than football?
8. Can the program succeed well enough right away to keep the fans interested?

In the coming week I will look at each potential WAC invitee individually to help everyone determine who would be best. There is not a program, however, that will fill all of these categories.

Friday, September 10, 2010

New Conference Realignment News...Montana to Join WAC is official?

The Philadelphia Daily News is reporting that last year's Football Championship Subdivision finalists are both moving to the Football Bowl Subdivision. Villanova to the Big East and Montana to the WAC. 'Nova will use the MLS stadium in Chester, PA as a temp home until their home football stadium is expanded to a Big East-acceptable Size.

Have not seen any reports from other papers confirming this. But Montana to the WAC seems to be a given at this point, even if there is no official word from either Montana nor the WAC at this time. But there has been no official repudiation of the story, either.

My take...

In 2012, Montana would bring the number of WAC teams to 7. They still need to add at least two more schools. It is my hunch that Montana and the Board of Regents would not move on this without Montana State. The other school at the top of the short list has to be Texas State. That will help pacify Louisiana Tech, help with their travel expense, and ensure that the WAC is an ongoing concern. The WAC may add another 3 for a 12-school conference, but not right away.

Villanova to the Big East in football is not totally unexpected, in my book. 'Nova is in the Big East in Basketball and well situated to succeed. I am not putting them in the Orange Bowl right away, but could produce a winning tradition as quickly as Nevada did...perhaps they will even be the next Boise State. The Big East is at 8 for football, and 'Nova makes it 9. Others could move up as well, but the only other Big East programs that are FCS are Georgetown and Notre Dame. The latter will never join the Big East in Football. They only way the Big East grows beyond 10 is if they spin off the non-football programs into a new conference. That is not totally unexpected as well.

This is also a sign that the Big East sees the Mountain West as less of a threat without BYU and Utah.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

College Prview for September 11

For those of you not burning the Koran this weekend, here is the exciting college football we have on tap for this weekend. Well, there are a few good ones. But mostly it will be the kind of bloodbaths that only Osama bin Laden would be proud of. On paper, there are a slew of one-sided match-ups.

Mountain West

Oh, good golly, does it look to be a bloody weekend of football in the MWC. At least BYU and Air Force will may have a close game.

UNLV at Utah (12-42)
Wyoming at Texas (17-50)
Tennessee Tech at TCU (3-55)
Texas Tech at New Mexico (35-2)
San Diego State at New Mexico State (33-16)
Colorado State at Nevada (12-41)

Game of the week:
Brigham Young at Air Force (27-13)

WAC

Nebraska scheduled their game with Idaho back when the Vandals could suck the barnacles off of the Jolly Roger. They would not have scheduled the Enderle/Akey Idaho Vandals. But the Huskers should still win, but they will not be able to get their third stringers into the game.

San Jose State at Wisconsin (3-28)
Idaho at Nebraska (28-42)
Louisiana Tech at Texas A & M (13-24)
San Diego State at New Mexico State (33-16)
Colorado State at Nevada (12-41)
Idaho State at Utah State (3-38)

Game of the week:
Hawaii at Army (28-24)

Big Sky Conference

There is a real shot this weekend of seeing an FCS opponent knock off an FBS school. It will not happen in Logan. It will be of little surprise to anyone if Montana State beats Washington State. Win or loose, the Bobcat fans will have a pleasant drive home.

Idaho State at Utah State (3-38)
Northern Colorado at Weber State (10-35)
Central Washington at Eastern Washington (24-28)
Portland State at UC-Davis (10-28)
Montana at Cal Poly (49-17)
Western Oregon at Sacramento State (3-17)
Northern Arizona at Arizona State (17-45)

Game of the Week
Montana State at Washington State (32-28)

Road Trip of the Week:
Bozeman, MT (Montana State) to Pullman, WA (Washington State)
7 hours 460 miles.
From Bozeman travel west on I-90 all the way to Coeur d'Alene, ID then south on US 95 to Pullman. The best part of the trip is scenic Lake Coeur d'Alene. This time of year is when the autumn leaves are just beginning to show. Bring a camera.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

It's Official...

Cal Poly and Cal Davis have accepted invitations to join the Big Sky Conference in Football. For now, they remain in the Big West for other sports.

http://www.bigskyconf.com/index.aspx

Welcome to the Big Sky Conference to the Mustangs and the Aggies.

Questions:

1. Is this a proactive move ahead of WAC plans?

My take is no, this is not. Cal Poly and Cal Davis are mentioned by many as possible WAC candidates along with many Big Sky Conference schools including Montana, Montana State, Sacramento State, Portland State, Northern Arizona and Weber State. This was likely in the works for a while and a reality of the expanded format for the FCS playoffs. If the Big Sky can field 3 playoff teams in a field of 16, why not 4 in a field of 20? The Big Sky needs more teams to justify four invitations, like the CAA with it's 12 members gets four playoff teams every season.

I am surprised that the BSC is taking football only members, but this locks up the Sacramento Valley and the Central Coast for recruiting purposes. It should pay dividends in other sports. For Cal Poly and Cal Davis it means lower travel costs and a chance to build a rivalry with schools they play every year anyway.

2. Does the BSC split into divisions for football?

Since there is no room for a conference championship game in the FCS, splitting into divisions will help reduce travel costs and provide a framework for scheduling. It is not necessary to divide into divisions to accomplish these goals, but it does simplify the work.

3. Is this the end of Great West Football?

The Great West is left with Southern Utah, North Dakota and South Dakota for football. Without a replacement for the two schools that have left, they are done with football.

4. Is Southern Utah left out in the cold again?

As of 2011, the Cedar City school is without a football conference and if not invited to the BSC, will be independent or forced to hunt for another conference. In basketball and most other sports, the T-Birds compete in the Summit Conference where they are, by nearly 500 miles, the western-most member. They are well outside of the geographic footprint, and can save a ton of money by joining the Big Sky Conference. Currently the BSC sits at 11 for football and 9 for other sports. But 10 is a good number for basketball and 11 is not a good number for FCS-level football. Commissioner Fullerton said that a 12th member is in the works. SUU may finally get into the Big Sky.

There are other candidates, but there are only two FCS programs left west of the great divide. Southern Utah and San Diego are all that is left. Some Division II programs could make the jump up including Central Washington. Dixie State is still in their transition to Division II, but could move up in 2014-2015. The Red Storm is in one of the fastest growing communities in the US, and if DSCU joins the Big Sky then they would bring in the 4th largest city in the conference.

Big Sky Trivia Question:

Name the two Big Sky Conference schools east of the Continental Divide.

Monday, September 6, 2010

New Power Rankings.

WAC...

Offensive Player of the Week: Utah State QB Diondre Borel
Defensive Team of the Week: Fresno State
Game of the Week: Boise State 33 Virginia Tech 30

I hesitate to give my weekly choice to Borel and considered Collin Kaepernick of Nevada instead. Borel did hurl three interceptions. But the level of competition does matter. I think that playing at Oklahoma is a bit tougher than playing at home against Eastern Washington. Kellen Moore got the job done against VT, but so did a lot of other people in Boise State's win. For the Broncos, it was a total team effort.

Power Rankings:

1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Idaho
5. Utah State
6. Louisiana Tech
7. Hawaii
8. New Mexico State
9. San Jose State

Big Sky

Offensive Player of the Week: Eastern Washington RB Taiwan Jones
Defensive Team of the Week: Weber State
Game of the Week: Boston College 38 Weber State 20

Tough choices all around. Everyone in the Big Sky either played up a division or played down. It could have been worse for Weber State and Eastern Washington, therefore they get the love this week.

Power Rankings:

1. Montana
2. Montana State
3. Eastern Washington
4. Weber State
5. Northern Arizona
6. Northern Colorado
7. Sacramento State
8. Portland State
9. Idaho State

Mountain West

Offensive Player of the Week: Utah WR DeVonte Christopher.
Defensive Team of the Week: Brigham Young
Game of the Week: Brigham Young 23 Washington 17

This week should tell us why the Mountain West will never get BCS automatic qualifying status. The top 3 (TCU, Utah and BYU) are still getting the job done. The middle three (Air Force, San Deigo State and Wyoming) did what was expected. Little hope was shown from the bottom 3 (UNLV, Colorado State and New Mexico), except for the first half in Las Vegas. It is not BYU and Utah leaving that will cost the Mountain West the BCS, it is the continued whiffing of the bottom 3.

Power Rankings...

1. Texas Christian
2. Utah
3. Brigham Young
4. Air Force
5. San Diego State
6. Wyoming
7. Nevada Las Vegas
8. Colorado State
9. New Mexico

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Closer than it should have been...

Utah State looks better than we thought they would be, if we are to believe the Oklahoma Sooners. The Aggies put the scare on them. After OU took a 21-0 lead, USU took the rest of the game and the final was 31-24. Demarco Murray was the man for the Sooners and converted a key 4th down in the fourth quarter that kept the ball out of the hands of Diondre Borel for one last drive. The Aggies are going to cause a lot of headaches this season.
***
Twenty years ago, I sat in a hotel room in Seattle, Washington and saw Ty Detmer and his team beat #1 Miami en route to Ty's Heisman campaign. This year, the BYU defense had something to say about the Heisman trophy. If Jake Locker does not get that coveted prize, he will look back on his failures late in the game in Provo this season. Hats off to the BYU defense in holding the Huskies scoreless in the 4th quarter.

For a breif time, hope lingered.

Weber State was not supposed to beat Boston College this weekend anyway. But there was a glimmer of hope in the second half. The halftime score was 31-10. Weber came out in the second half and put together an impressive second have drive that burned more than 7:00 minutes off of the clock and kicked a field goal. The BC went 3 and out on their first second half drive. The next drive also looked good, at first. A touchdown would have brought the Cats to an 11 point deficit. Just when it appeared that BC had gone home for the second half of the game, Higgins throws a Pic-6 and the game is over. After that, the game had all the charm of a NFL pre-season game.

Otherwise, Cam had a good game. The running game is still of concern. Why not use Bo Bolen a little more? We will see what happens against NCU next week.

Friday, September 3, 2010

A sloppy wet kiss is better than no kiss at all.

That is my reaction to Utah's win over Pitt last night. I was able to tune in from the second quarter on. The Panthers were just as sloppy as the Utes and if one team had been able to keep the handle on the ball, it could have been a blowout. Just as good for Ute fans. Now Utah joins the BCS conversation for the season. I was impressed with the Utah defense. They defended the short field very well.

***

Will MWC opponents ever play BYU again? That depends on who. I think that some will, and some definitely will not. Listed from most likely to least likely.

Most Likely
1. Boise State--Already has a four-game series scheduled. No reason to cancel this series. It will be much more intense now than it would have been had BYU remained the the MWC.

Likely
2. UNLV--They will miss the Cougars in Las Vegas.
3. San Diego State--Will also miss the crowds that BYU can bring to San Diego.
4. Colorado State--The rivalry with BYU goes back to the 1920s. They will be on the schedule again.
5. New Mexico--Another program that will miss the crowds that BYU brings to town.

Probable
6. Nevada--
7. Fresno State--These two schools will eventually repair the rift that nearly scuttled BYUs plans.

Not likely
8. TCU--If there is a program in the MWC that is almost as arrogant at BYU, it is TCU. They don't need BYU and visa versa.
9. Air Force--They only have two spare games to schedule each season. It will happen, but not any time soon.

Least likely
10. Wyoming--the athletic director says never. We will see if he changes his tune when his program is facing reclassification to the FCS, but I doubt it. BYU and Utah bring the biggest crowds to Laramie. The only time BYU and Wyoming will ever meet again is in a bowl.

Curtailed High School Coverage at Wasatch Swagger

To my readers...

I have decided that it is time to curtail my blogging about high school football and other high school sports. Getting good information has been difficult and I have decided to expand my consulting enterprise, which will take a lot of my time. Something has to go. My blogs about high school athletics also seem to be my least popular. My apologies if you are among those who will miss it.

-Ben H.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

BYU's 2011 Schedule...Official

Official BYU 2011 schedule. TCU game added.

S3 @ Mississippi (Ole Miss) (First Meeting)
S10 @ Texas
S17 Utah
S23 Central Florida (First Meeting)
S30 Utah State
O8 San Jose State
O15 @ Oregon State
O22 Idaho State
O28 vs. TCU in Arlington, TX
N5 Open
N12 Idaho
N15 New Mexico State (First Meeting)
N26 Open
D3 @ Hawaii

Bowl, if eligible: None, yet.

Note: BYU dropped Louisiana Tech to get TCU on the schedule.

Can BYU get a BCS game with this schedule?

It depends on the voters and the other teams in BCS contention.  Should be in the BCS with an undefeated season.  With one loss, it would depend on who deals the loss.  If Texas, Utah or Oregon State...yes.  Otherwise, probably no.  It helped a lot to get TCU instead of La Tech.

Of note: BYU will play Ole Miss, Central Florida, and New Mexico State for the first time in history in 2011.


Future:

2012

Swagger Speculation:
According to the San Jose Mercury News, the WAC/BYU scheduling agreement will continue in some form indefinitely. Otherwise it would not have been so easy to drop Louisiana Tech for TCU. BYU needs 2 home games in 2012 and I expect that one of those home games with be Texas State as they only have 2 non-conference games scheduled for 2012. The other home game in 2012 will likely be an FCS opponent. Hopefully someone nearby and somewhat challenging like Montana. Hawaii will be part of the MWC in 2012, therefore the meeting in Provo will likely be in September and not at the end of the season. I expect that BYU will end the season with the Utah State game beginning in 2012.

Oregon State
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech (First Meeting)
Texas State?
Utah State (Assumed)
FCS team
@Boise State
@Notre Dame
@New Mexico State
@San Jose State
@Utah
@Ga Tech

Bowl, if eligible and no BCS: Poinsettia

2013

No official word on whether the visit to Rushton, LA has been rescheduled for 2013. If BYU gets Texas State at home in 2012, they will likely visit San Marcos in 2013. If the WAC scheduling agreement continues as reported by the San Jose Mercury News, expect a visit to the Kibbie Dome in 2013...if Idaho is still and FBS school.

Boise State
Texas
Georgia Tech
Utah (Not officially announced)
New Mexico State?
San Jose State?
@Idaho?
@Louisiana Tech?
@Utah State?
@Hawaii
@Notre Dame
1 more road game available.

? Part of WAC/BYU scheduling agreement.

Bowl, if eligible: San Francisco

2014

@Boise State
@Texas
@Central Florida
@Georgia Tech
2 or 3 WAC teams

2015
Boise State
Georgia Tech
2 or 3 additional WAC teams

2016
@West Virginia (Washington, D.C.) (First Meeting)
2 or 3 additional WAC teams

No dates yet set:
-Final four games in Notre Dame Series
-Michigan
-Tulane (owes BYU a visit to Provo in 2013 or 2014)
-Ole Miss in Provo?
-WAC teams beyond 2012.


What happens if BYU joins the Big 12?
Notre Dame Series--Continues as planned or with adjustments
West Virgina--Continues as planned
Utah--Continues as planned
Oregon State--Postponed or canceled.
Texas--Canceled, BYU and Texas would be part of the same conference
Hawaii--Adjusted
Utah State--Adjusted
Boise State--Adjusted or canceled
Georgia Tech--Adjusted or canceled
WAC agreement--Canceled, but some schools will end up on BYU's schedule to thank them for the favor.

If BYU joins the Big 12 in 2012, the non-conference games would likely be, Hawaii, Oregon State, @ Notre Dame and @ Utah.